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Reposted by Christopher Carman

Scottish Council on Global Affairs scga.scot @scga.scot · 18/05/2026

Scottish Election Analysis 2026: The Campaign, Voters and Policies Immediate thoughts, reflections and early research insights on the 2026 election from leading scholars in Scottish politics, elections, media and policy. @uofgsps.bsky.social @pjdelacour.bsky.social www.electionanalysis.uk

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

Well, THAT was quite an election result for Scotland! Whether you're 🤩, 😧, or 🤷‍♂️, the next question is: what does it actually mean? Join @ailsahenderson.bsky.social @merylkenny.bsky.social @profnicolamcewen.bsky.social 19 May, 6PM @glasgow.ac.uk in-person&online www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/after-the-...

eventbrite.co.uk

After the Votes are Counted: Making Sense of the Scottish Election Result

The Stevenson Trust hosts a discussion on the recent Scottish Election.

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

A sensitive topic: As #Scotland extends the right to serve in parliament to resident non-citizens: what do Scots think about political rights for resident non-citizens? We asked in our Oct 2025 SCOOP Our @scotvoting.bsky.social data offers a starting point: scottishelections.ac.uk/2026/04/09/e...

scottishelections.ac.uk

Expanding Scotland’s Voting Franchise: Public Support 10 Years after Votes at 16

The Scottish Election Study's Christopher Carman, Stevenson Professor of Citizenship at the University of Glasgow, discusses our data on attitudes to the expansion of the franchise in Scotland Since i...

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

🗳️ The votes are in. Now the real analysis begins. Join Stevenson Trust on 19 May for a lively roundtable discussion w/: @ailsahenderson.bsky.social @merylkenny.bsky.social @profnicolamcewen.bsky.social University of Glasgow, 6PM details & sign up 👇 www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/after-the-... #SP26

eventbrite.co.uk

After the Votes are Counted: Making Sense of the Scottish Election Result

The Stevenson Trust hosts a discussion on the recent Scottish Election.

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

This is a mistake. Whatever you think of Reform policies, you have to recognise that lots of people in Scotland voted for them. A responsible governing party should seek to constructively engage across society - even with those with whom we (strongly) disagree.

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Now that the #ScottishParliament votes have been counted, what next? Watch Allan Campbell's (Head of Operations, SP) Stevenson Trust lecture on how the SP will induct the new MSPs - fascinating on how the Parliament, as an institution, makes democracy work! #SP26 www.youtube.com/live/kTr_2Eg...

youtube.com

Election 2026: behind the scenes at the Scottish Parliament

YouTube video by University of Glasgow College of Social Sciences

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Are Scots learning to game AMS? Tactical voting rose from 8% in 2011 → 20% in 2021. A third of split-ticket voters in 2021 said they were doing it explicitly to stop another party. 2026 looks even more complex - see our latest @scotvoting.bsky.social blog: scottishelections.ac.uk/2026/05/05/d...

scottishelections.ac.uk

Dinnae waste yer vote: how do Scots understand and use the electoral system?

SES Co-Investigator Professor Christopher Carman (christopher.carman@glasgow.ac.uk) dives into Scottish Election Study data to explore whether Scottish voters are learning to game their own electoral ...

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Reposted by Christopher Carman

Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

As Scots go to the polls tomorrow, there's no better place to look for comparisons of the parties' manifesto pledges on the key policy issues facing the next Scottish Parliament than @uofgpolicy.bsky.social's manifestos analysis grid:

gla.ac.uk

Manifestos analysis grid - Elections 2026

29 April 2026: What do the party manifestos say, at a glance, on the big topics facing Scotland? Access the Centre for Public Policy's new manifesto grid analysis on what each party is pledging on top...

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

#Scotland votes in 7 days. We asked Scots how worried they are about deepfakes, AI fake news & dark money in the election. Turns out: very. New blog post from @scotvoting.bsky.social 👇 scottishelections.ac.uk/2026/04/30/fake-news-real-concern-deepfakes-ai-and-scotlands-election/

scottishelections.ac.uk

Fake News, Real Concern: Deepfakes, AI and Scotland’s Election

With Scotland's Holyrood election just a week away, SES Co-Investigator Professor Christopher Carman asks whether Scottish voters are ready to navigate an information environment that is increasingly ...

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Reposted by Christopher Carman

Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

Four weeks to go! 🗳️ We'll be publishing analysis on our blog every Thurs + Tues, looking at data beyond the immediate horse-race 🏇📊 First up, @cjcarman.bsky.social on what Scots think about changes to voting rights in recent years! scottishelections.ac.uk/2026/04/09/e...

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

16 days until Scotland votes. Tonight Prof Sir John Curtice explains what the polls are really telling us — and what a transformed Holyrood would mean. Free. 6pm. Glasgow and online. 🎟️ eventbrite.co.uk/e/a-parliament-transformed-making-sense-of-scotlands-election-tickets-1737347355709

eventbrite.co.uk

A Parliament Transformed? Making Sense of Scotland's Election

The Stevenson Trust for Citizenship welcomes Professor Sir John Curtice to discuss the upcoming Scottish election.

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

Scotland votes May 7th. Deepfakes, AI slop & disinformation are already in play. 7 April, 6PM, Join Sam Hartley from @electoralcommission.org.uk at @glasgow.ac.uk for a free public lecture on what's real & what's not and how we protect elections. 🗳️ www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/real-or-fa...

eventbrite.co.uk

Real or Fake? Navigating Mis/Disinformation in the 2026 Scottish Parliament

Lets explore AI misinformation in the lead up to the Scottish Election

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

4 Nov, 6PM Dewar Memorial Lecture @uofglasgow.bsky.social will be delivered by David McGill, Clerk & CEO of the @parliament.scot. David will reflect on the Parliament's past 26 years - and how it will face future challenges. Free and open to the public. tix here: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/reflection...

eventbrite.co.uk

Reflections on 26 years of devolution in the Scottish Parliament

David McGill, Clerk and Chief Executive of the Scottish Parliament reflects on its past.

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 18/07/2025

With President Donald John Trump announcing the dates for his upcoming trip to #Scotland, we at @scotvoting.bsky.social look at how popular #POTUS is in Scotland. Turns out DJT might find the Scottish summer to be a bit chilly, and that isn't just the weather!

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 08/05/2025

Seen the headlines in today's Scottish papers? Join @scotvoting.bsky.social team TONIGHT 6pm @uofglasgow.bsky.social for an analysis of the the state Scottish electoral politics One Year Out from the 2026 Holyrood elections. Boyd Orr Bldg in-person and on-line www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/one-year-o...

eventbrite.co.uk

One Year Out: The outlook for the 2026 Holyrood election

Join us on Thursday 8 May for this Stevenson Lecture with the Scottish Election Study Team.

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 20/02/2025

Looking for something to do at 17:30 Friday afternoon at the @scottishlabour.bsky.social conference? @scotvoting.bsky.social Scottish Election Study team will be holding a fringe event looking at our data on Scottish Labour Voters (past & future). W/ @ailsahenderson.bsky.social & Fraser McMillan

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Reposted by Christopher Carman

University of Glasgow @glasgow.ac.uk · 19/02/2025

The next Stevenson Trust lecture features Professor Sir Anton Muscatelli (@uofgvc.bsky.social) and Christopher Carman (@cjcarman.bsky.social) on how rising geopolitical tensions could shape the global economy. 🌎 Taking place on 4 March and open to all. Register now: tinyurl.com/2knys4wt

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Reposted by Christopher Carman

University of Glasgow College of Social Sciences @uofgsocsci.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

📢Join us for the next Stevenson Trust lecture with Professor Sir Anton Muscatelli (@uofgvc.bsky.social) and Christopher Carman (@cjcarman.bsky.social). They will explore how rising geopolitical tensions could shape the global economy over the next 2-3 years. Register now: tinyurl.com/2knys4wt.

Stevenson Trust for Citizenship event post with the title Geopolitics and Global economic shocks: the prospects for the world economy Professor Sir Anton Muscatelli, Bute hall, Gilbert Scott Building, Tuesday 4th March 6- 7.30 pm

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

We are very excited to be hosting this event @uofglasgow.bsky.social on 10 Feb, 6pm, recognising 25 years of achievements by the Scottish Youth Parliament @officialsyp.bsky.social Pls join us - free & open to all members of the public, both young and not-so-young Register here: lnkd.in/e-9aQxaV

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Reposted by Christopher Carman

Gabriela Greilinger @gabrielagreilinger.com · 24/01/2025

This is an interesting study on the relationship between economic inequality and democratic erosion: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... Overall, certainly something worth pondering.

Screenshot of the first page of the paper.
Title: Income inequality and the erosion of democracy in the twenty-first century
Authors: Eli G. Rau and Susan Stokes
Significance:
In the 21st century, democracy is more often threatened by elected presidents and prime ministers than by military coup-makers. What are the causes of this rise in democratic erosion? Cross-national statistical analysis points toward one robust finding: The more unequal income distribution is in a democracy, the more at risk it is of electing a power-aggrandizing and norm-shredding head of government. Even wealthy and longstanding democracies, like the United States, are vulnerable if they are highly unequal (though national wealth might provide some resiliency). Therefore, policies that improve income equality may have the political effect of strengthening democratic systems.

Abstract:
Among the most pressing problems societies face today are economic inequality and the erosion of democratic norms and institutions. In fact the two problems—inequality and democratic erosion—are linked. In a large cross-national statistical study of risk factors for democratic erosion, we establish that economic inequality is one of the strongest predictors of where and when democracy erodes. Even wealthy and longstanding democracies are vulnerable if they are highly unequal (though national wealth might provide some resiliency). The association between inequality and risk of democratic backsliding is robust, and holds under different measures and structures of both income inequality and wealth inequality. The association is unlikely to be a case of reverse causation. For concerned citizens seeking to understand why so many democracies are eroding and how to stop this process, our study indicates that policies for ameliorating inequality are a promising path forward.

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Reposted by Christopher Carman

University of Glasgow College of Social Sciences @uofgsocsci.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

A fascinating discussion from @cjcarman.bsky.social and Natasha Lindstaedt from tonight's Stevenson Trust lecture. They discussed Trumps campaign and what the next four years of his presidency may mean for the US and the rest of the world

Chris Carmen and Natasha Lindstaedt speaking at the Stevenson trust lecture The US election and what to expect in the next 4 years.

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Reposted by Christopher Carman

University of Glasgow College of Social Sciences @uofgsocsci.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

The next Stevenson Trust Lecture takes place this Wednesday from 6- 7:30 on the US Election. @cjcarman.bsky.social and Natasha Lindstaedt will discuss Trump's Campaign and what can be expected over the next 4 years. Don't miss out register here: tinyurl.com/mr2rvsrp.

Poster for the January 15th Stevenson Trust lecture The US elections and what to expect in the next 4 years.

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Reposted by Christopher Carman

Ailsa Henderson @ailsahenderson.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

Interested in Scottish voting data? Follow Scottish Election Study team at account below Or individually: @ailsahenderson.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @cjcarman.bsky.social @jaclarner.bsky.social @chanret.bsky.social @martamiori.bsky.social (Fraser's arriving soon)

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 14/11/2024

has anyone told RFKJr where his soon-to-be boss prefers to dine? (and cook french fries)

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Reposted by Christopher Carman

Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 14/11/2024

OPINION TODAY Trump's new administration and the election's aftermath | What Trump supporters believe and expect | How Resilient Is the Emerging Trump Coalition? | Drop in Death Penalty Support Led by Younger Generations | The 2026 race for CA governor ... & more: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/241114

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 14/11/2024

we know that partisanship now drives economic and social policy perceptions in the US - but this graph is striking. I just told a class that right after Trump's inauguration we'd see a shift in economic evaluations... it only took days after the election! graph frm www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/b...

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 05/11/2024

Last week at my @UofGlasgow @StevensonTrust lecture on the US POTUS election I said/joked I was waiting for a news report saying that the Amish in PA were going to be the crucial voting group in the state. #nailedit #LancasterPA #youknowyouarefromLancasterwhen

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 03/11/2024

Interesting that even with all the Trump supporting “whales” who have thrown money into the various “election markets”, Trump has dropped 10 pts in Polymarket in this past week

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 03/11/2024

“A republic, if you can keep it.” Benjamin Franklin’s response to the question, “Well Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?” on the day the Constitutional Convention delegates signed their draft.

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 01/11/2024

Counties already denying certification of elections across the US. THIS is rather concerning and points to the US election system ending up in uncharted territory. #electiondenialism #USelection2024 podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...

podcasts.apple.com

The Army of Election Officials Ready To Reject The Vote

Podcast Episode · The Daily · 01/11/2024 · 45m

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 26/10/2024

Pls join us on 29 Oct, 6PM in @uofglasow KELVIN GALLERY (in the Gilbert Scott Bldg) for discussion of the upcoming US Elections with @UofGSPS's @cjcarman.bsky.social. What are polls telling us? What can we expect in the last week before the election? register: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-us-pre...

eventbrite.co.uk

The US Presidential Election: Should we just flip a coin?

Let's discuss the state of the contest and what we might expect.

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 24/10/2024

As what constitutes “fascism” seems to be a topic of conversation at the moment, let’s look at the definition of the term in the Oxford Dictionary of Politics (2009, 3rd ed pg193). #fascist #fascism #polisci #2024

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Reposted by Christopher Carman

Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · 20/09/2024

The long and short of all this is that elevated indy support sustained the SNP long after 2014, powering them to a series of victories at all levels of government. But in the last couple of years their grip on pro-indy voters has loosened significantly.

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Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · 20/09/2024

We also know it changed people's constitutional preferences, with young people in particular much more supportive than before - although they were always the group most favourably disposed to "devo max". The binary choice presented in 2014 forced people to pick a side.

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Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · 20/09/2024

It similarly altered how people felt about Scotland, believing it had become a more engaged political space. Yes voters were initially more convinced of this, but No voters soon changed their minds. This shows the % of voters saying the indyref made Scotland more involved ✍️

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Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · 20/09/2024

We also know that the referendum changed how people engaged with politics. A lot of people joined the pro-indy parties after the referendum. At peak, one in 24 Scots belonged to a political party vs one in 125 in the UK as a whole 🪧⬇️

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Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · 20/09/2024

Meanwhile, changes in Conservative support were more gradual. This graph shows the share of Labour voters switching to the Conservatives at each general election in the 2010s, with the party's effort to become the voice of No supporters paying off north of the border in 2017 🔵

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Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · 20/09/2024

The referendum pushed voters out to the poles of the constitutional debate. This outstanding graph by @jaclarner.bsky.social shows this happened immediately following the indyref vote, with voters moving from Labour to SNP en masse 😯

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Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · 20/09/2024

We also saw greater consistency between Westminster and Holyrood preferences, moving away from patterns early on in the devolution era. This graph shows differences in parties' constituency vote shares at Westminster and Holyrood elections.

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Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · 20/09/2024

We know the referendum changed voting behaviour with... Firstly, greater consistency between independence preferences and party preferences 🗳️🤝 2010 > 2015 general election vote choice among Yes voters on the left, No voters on the right.

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Scottish Election Study @scotvoting.bsky.social · 20/09/2024

To mark ten years since the independence referendum we're collating some nice SES data and launching our account Over Here! Hello Bluesky 🦋 Did the indyref change Scotland? As you might expect from the title of our book based on SES and Scottish Referendum Study data, the answer is yes! But how?

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 18/09/2024

Is there a candidate Americans (sort of) like? Harris (just barely) tips into net positive approval rating while Trump remains flat in the negative territory #US2024 #POTUSelection www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 18/09/2024

10 years following the #Scotland #IndyRef instead of looking to the somewhat revisionist accounts, why not have a look at clear academic analysis of The Referendum that Changed a Nation 2014-2019 from the Scottish Election Team www.amazon.co.uk/Referendum-t...

amazon.co.uk

Amazon.co.uk

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 30/08/2024

*checks calendar* yes, it IS still AUGUST… and the grocery store has 2024 Advent Calendars on sale!!! WTF!!! #christmastooearly #itisonlyaugust #santastillneedshisrest #theelvesarestillmakingtgetoys

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Christopher Carman @cjcarman.bsky.social · 29/08/2024

People ask why Trump is running again… here is just one potential reason

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Reposted by Christopher Carman

Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 28/08/2024

This has received less attention than it should, because the overall result was in line with expectations. But in a closer contest an error of this scale would be enough to deliver a surprise outcome (as it did in 1992 & 2015) - something to remember if polls are narrower ahead of the next election

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