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Lightbucket

@lightbucket.bsky.social
172 followers 415 following 1.6K posts

20 years in academic physics, then 20 years running a physics-based tech company, now drifting towards semi-retirement. Looking at: decarbonisation; energy; Russia's war in Ukraine. Blog on Wordpress: lightbucket.wordpress.com

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Emily @emilydawn.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
@hockeyviz.com I found some beautiful data viz for you
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Robin Hawkes @robhawkes.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
We're pushing 1,500 MW today from the under-construction cluster of wind farms in the North Sea, and they're mostly capped at ~50% capacity for now When complete these three will be outputting at 3,800 MW on a windy day
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Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 29/09/2026
"It's been a very abusive relationship if you're an ally for the last eighteen months. The idea we can go back to trusting America is low." Distinguished Fellow Robin Niblett joined Times Radio to discuss his latest book 'After America' and the wider impact of Donald Trump's presidency.
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London Review of Books @lrb.co.uk · 20/09/2026
‘“Decarbonisation” was supposed to drive down prices and encourage consumers to switch from using fossil fuels for driving and heating. This hasn’t happened.’ @arthurdowning.bsky.social on Britain’s energy crisis: www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...
lrb.co.uk
Arthur Downing · Asset Sweating: Britain’s Energy Crisis
Britain has private ownership while making the state responsible for planning via subsidies. The result is a zombie...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
WSJ: The AI build-out is on track to become the biggest economic bet in US history, dwarfing the investments made to fund other huge US infrastructure projects — such as the railroads, the highway system and the plumbing for the internet.” (via Jefferies)
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
FT Alphaville on the USS pension fund (a subject I have a rather direct personal interest in): 👇
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Timothy Burke @bubbaprog.xyz · 20/09/2026
hold up, this guy is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and he didn't know there were banking sanctions against Russia?
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Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 19/09/2026
Beef production has been the largest driver of deforestation this century. Over the last two decades, around 128 million hectares of forest have been cleared to make way for agriculture and forest plantations. That’s an area five times the size of the United Kingdom.
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Read it…
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Peter Gleick @petergleick.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Given the outrageous, dangerous, and outright false statements made about how the polio (and other) vaccine was a "fraud" (at the Children's Health Defense conference), here's a reminder of what a massive success it was. RFK Jr. & his minions must be stopped from destroying the US healthcare system.
Graph of the number of cases and deaths from polio from 1910 to 2022, showing how polio completely disappeared after the introduction of the vaccine -- one of the most important health advances of the 20th century. Data from the US Public Health Services; the Center for Disease Control.
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Robin Hawkes @robhawkes.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
It's as if Sofia was listening. Note: this is "FPN" which means it's likely not the actual output (we'll need to wait days for that), but still…
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International Energy Agency @iea.org · 18/09/2026
Russian oil refinery activity recently fell to its lowest level in more than 20 years amid intensifying Ukrainian attacks on refineries. Our new commentary examines the situation in detail – as well as the implications for global oil markets → buff.ly/7inm4LO
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
1/ The Low Carbon Contracts Company has announced the Interim Levy Rate (ILR) for Q1 2027.  The ILR is £2.979/MWh. The ILR is the per-MWh charge all electricity suppliers pay to the LCCC to cover forecast payments from the LCCC to CfD generators. ⸻ Ref: www.emrsettlement.co.uk/document/set...
A screenshot of the EMR Key Figures document for 2026/27,
showing the Interim Levy Rate for
1 January 2027 - 31 March 2027,
the ILR is £2.979/MWh

Source: EMR Settlement
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Should have guessed that the thing that would eventually kill off the right's interest in grammar schools would be non-white kids doing too well in the 11+.
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
September 11th 2026: Bank of Russia *holds* its key interest rate at 14.0%. Next key rate meetings:  • 23 October 2026  • 18 December 2026 www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_... #Russianeconomy 10 years of interest rates, for context 👇: ⸻ Ref: tradingeconomics.com/russia/inter...
Changes in Russia's key interest rate, to 11 September 2026:

Sep. 16 2022: 7.5%
Jul. 21 2023: 8.5%
Aug. 15 2023 12%
Sep. 15 2023: 13%
Oct. 27 2023: 15%
Dec. 15 2023: 16%
Jul. 26 2024: 18%
Sep. 13 2024: 19%
Oct. 25 2024: 21%
Jun. 06 2025: 20%
Jul. 25 2025: 18%
Sep. 12 2025: 17%
Oct. 24 2025: 16.5%
Dec. 19 2025: 16%
Feb. 13 2026: 15.5%
Mar. 20 2026: 15.0%
Apr. 24 2026: 14.5%
Jun. 19 2026: 14.25%
Jul. 24 2026: 14.0%
Sep. 11 2026: 14.0%

Source: tradingeconomics.com | Central Bank of Russia.
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Moo Woo.
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public health guy @publichealthguy1.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
📈📈📈
Gas Station Price Sign Using Scientific Notation

the ONION
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Anthony Moser @anthonymoser.com · 10/09/2026
this is, I think, one of the inherent problems with LLMs using natural language interfaces: they are a statistical tool *that looks like* a logical tool statistical approaches can be a useful way to find related information! BUT for it to be useful you have to *know that's what it's doing*
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
The UK gas price is at 204 GB pence/therm, heading towards the 2022 price range. 👇 ⸻ Ref: Trading Economics tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk... Price unit: GB pence/therm
A chart showing the price of UK natural gas for the 10 years to 10 September 2026.

The current price is 204 pence per therm.

Source: Trading Economics
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Charles Fourier @charlesfourier.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Bill Bryson’s words seem appropriate to post right now
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
One reason England does so well is our second generation immigrants outperform their peers which is not true in most OECD countries. We are also very good at integration. And it's v sad that this is never acknowledge in debates on immigration.
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Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 08/09/2026
@ stephenkb.bsky.social hitting the nail on the head of course. "the Labour Party has now produced two governments whose response to acts of thuggery and intimidation is to reiterate that perhaps the thugs have a point" - as.ft.com/r/97d33f08-a...
as.ft.com
Labour’s muddled migration policy won’t stop thuggery
A government that can’t distinguish between ‘legitimate concerns’ and open racism is only making things worse
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The Arthur C. Clarke Award @clarkeaward.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Some scams are easier to spot than others. That said, we get these semi-regularly and they are only getting more focused and custom-tailored, so be careful writers! And, no, we didn’t reply, but it was super-tempting.
Text from a scam email message which reads:  

Hi Arthur C. Clarke,

I recently came across 2001: A Space Odyssey, the 25th Anniversary Edition, and wanted to reach out.

I’ve been connecting with authors whose books are available to readers but may not be reaching as many new audiences as they could.

I’m curious how has your experience been with book visibility and reaching new readers? And have you considered exploring new ways to promote your book or expand its reach to additional platforms?

I’d genuinely be interested in hearing your thoughts and experience.
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Barchart @barchart.com · 02/09/2026
Diesel Crack Spread soars to highest level in history 📈 📈
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
1/2 This time last year, Germany announced it wouldn't be closing any coal plants for a second year running. Its 2038 coal phaseout target is so lax it could afford to do absolutely nothing for two years running. ⸻ Ref: www.luxtimes.lu/europeanunio...
Bloomberg
News agency
01/09/2025

Germany has already met its 2028 goal for reducing coal-fired power generation, so won’t need to order the shutdown of any plants for a second year running, the country’s regulator said.
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Will Cooling @willcooling.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
He either increases income tax or he'll be another failed Prime Minister. It really is that simple
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FT Edit @ftedit.ft.com · 31/08/2026
Big tech giants reported more than $160bn last quarter in "other income". The source? Equity stakes in other AI companies ... Read the story on #FTEdit 👉 ft.trib.al/ostEx9j
Bar chart showing quarterly “other income” reported by Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia from 2016 to 2026. The figure remained relatively small until surging dramatically in 2025 and 2026, reaching more than $160bn in the latest quarter.
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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
This is very funny as GB News reports the potential impact of *falling* immigration. (This is pretty much cut and paste from the FT, so wonder if it's just automated/AI). www.gbnews.com/money/budget...
gbnews.com
Budget DISASTER as John Healey could face £4bn headroom shortfall after shocking immigration figures
The Chancellor is preparing to unveil his Budget policies on October 28
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Hungary's only nuclear power plant, Paks, is back to full power after a sharp drop in output from 29 July to 25 August, caused by low water levels in the river Danube.
A chart showing public net electricity generation in Hungary in 2026,
by day, from nuclear power.

 A large reduction in nuclear power output from 29 July to 25 August,
caused by low water levels in the river Danube.

Source: Energy Charts, Fraunhofer ISE
Original data: ENTSO-E
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
1/2 A four-part series of posts about Britain's electricity market, by @adambell.bsky.social: Part 1: A Buzzing in the Wires unbalancingmechanism.substack.com/p/a-buzzing-... Part 2: A Rattling Between The Pylons unbalancingmechanism.substack.com/p/a-rattling...
unbalancingmechanism.substack.com
A Buzzing in the Wires
Something is badly wrong in the electricity market
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Adam Bell @adambell.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
IS THE ELECTRICITY MARKET BROKEN? Yes, yes it is. The final part in my series on the wholesale electricity market finds that it structurally misallocates weather risk to consumers who really can't do much about the wind and sun. unbalancingmechanism.substack.com/p/a-howling-...
unbalancingmechanism.substack.com
A Howling in the Exchange
The final part of our series on the wholesale market looks at how risk in the system has been radically reallocated without anyone really meaning to do it.
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
1/2 The Low Carbon Contracts Company has adjusted the Interim Levy Rate for Q3 and Q4 2026. The ILR for Q3 has been reduced from £10.559/MWh to £2.068/MWh. The ILR for Q4 has been reduced from £8.176/MWh to £5.529/MWh.
A screenshot of an Excel spreadsheet showing the Interim Levy Rate for Fiscal Year 2024/25.

The Interim Levy Rate for Q3 2026 has been adjusted
from £10.559/MWh to £2.068/MWh, effective 17 August 2026.

The Interim Levy Rate for Q4 2026 has been adjusted
from £8.176/MWh to £5.529/MWh, effective 1 October 2026.

Source: EMR Settlement
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🍁🇨🇦Team Canada Forever🇨🇦🍁 @teamcanadaforever.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
“America isn't the way it is because he's president. He's president because America is the way it is” — David Cochrane CBC Power and Politics
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Jo Wolff @jowolff.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Certain words spring a trap in his mind: Asylum seekers = lunatics Transistor factories = trans people Intervention = military
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
1/2 The Transira electricity policy study for Onward shows £94 bn of cumulative savings in wholesale electricity costs between 2030 and 2050. It assumes a wholesale price of £38/MWh (2025 prices) in 2050, set by gas (with UK ETS carbon pricing removed). ⸻ Ref: Onward ukonward.com/reports/firm...
Figure 19: Baseload wholesale power prices under BAU and APP (£ per MWh, 2025)
Source: Transira Energy - Powering Britain: A comparison of policy pathways to 2050 (July 2026)

The APP (Alternative Policy Pathway) baseload wholesale price in 2046-50 is projected to be £38/MWh

Source: Firm Foundations: The case for cheap and reliable power,
Onward,
Ed Hezlet, 18 August 2026
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Ember @ember-energy.org · 19/08/2026
DATA TOOL | 5 out of 10 top solar and wind generators in the world are provinces in China 🇨🇳 China as a whole is already the world's largest solar and wind generator. Breaking the data down by province shows Inner Mongolia just behind the US and India. ember-energy.org/dat...
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Dr David Robert Grimes @drg.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
The tragic death of Jason Arday is an awful story. There's been much (often nasty) commentary on Arday's scholarship, with UK redtops pretending now to be concerned bastions of research integrity. Utter nonsense: misconduct in academia is EXTREMELY common, and media rarely cares. Let's review 🧵
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Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 17/08/2026
📝 New article — Which countries have already passed peak population, and when will the rest do so? Many countries around the world are in a unique position: rather than having a constant or growing population, their populations are starting to shrink.
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Coal generation in the Netherlands this summer is far higher than in recent summers. Exports to Belgium seem to be the main reason for the higher coal generation (nos.nl/artikel/2627...). ⸻ Ref: Ember ember-energy.org/data/electri...
A chart showing electricity generation from coal in the Netherlands by month, for 2023 to 2026.

Coal generation in July 2026 was 1.13 TWh,
over twice as high as July 2025,
and 20 times as high as July 2024.

Source: Ember Electricity Data Explorer
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Dmitry Grozoubinski @explaintrade.com · 15/08/2026
I wrote a thing. I'll try not to make it a habit but it was either start typing or keep furiously pacing. dmitryopines.substack.com/p/listening-...
dmitryopines.substack.com
Listening to the Monsters
A scream into the void about Professor Arday and flawed institutions in a bad faith ecosystem.
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Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
This is a lovely site which helps remind us of much of what we take for granted in material progress ordinaryabundance.com (HT @aveek18.bsky.social)
ordinaryabundance.com
Ordinary Abundance
A walk through a modern apartment, through the eyes of the people for whom everything in it was new.
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James O'Malley @jamesomalley.co.uk · 12/08/2026
Shame the eclipse was so late in the day otherwise this would be even weirder.
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
The Guardian story's not as absurd as it looks. Day-ahead electricity prices in Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark all spike at €461.17/MWh tomorrow at 19:45 to 20:00 CEST. ⸻ Ref: Nord Pool data.nordpoolgroup.com/auction/day-...
A chart showing day-ahead electricity prices for 12.08.2026.
Prices in Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark all spike at 461.17 EUR/MWh at 19:45 to 20:00 CEST.

Source: Nordpool day-ahead prices.
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
A tender in India for solar PV + battery power projects, where the projects are required to provide firm and dispatchable renewable energy (FDRE), has come in at $0.055/kWh for 25-year Power Purchase Agreements. #pricescrapbook
pv-magazine.com
India's round-the-clock renewables tender attracts lowest bid of $0.055/kWh - pv magazine Global
The Solar Energy Corp. of India (SECI) has discovered a lowest tariff of INR 5.25/kWh in its tender to procure 1 GW of firm and dispatchable renewable energy (FDRE) on a round-the-clock (RTC) basis fr...
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Henry Farrell @himself.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Dan Wang and I have written the Weekend Essay at @financialtimes.com and if I can say so myself it's a banger as.ft.com/r/c1054499-a...
An illustration from classic Golden Age era science fiction.
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Judah Grunstein @judah-grunstein.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
So I couldn't bring myself to RT the quote of the steak and sauerkraut guy, but I do think it's worth pointing out that it's yet another example of the overlap and backchannels between New Age woo and eugenicist MAHA.
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
France's nuclear output in July was the highest July figure since July 2018, despite several shutdowns among its river-cooled nuclear power plants. There's a lot of spare generating capacity in the summer months. 👇 ⸻ Chart ref: Ember ember-energy.org/data/electri...
Electricity generation in France by month,
from July 2015 to July 2026.
Nuclear generation in July 2026 was 29.7 TWh,
the highest July output since July 2018.

Source: Ember Electricity Data Explorer
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International Energy Agency @iea.org · 07/08/2026
Negative electricity prices have become a common occurrence in many markets. Their rising frequency highlights the need for greater system flexibility – including battery storage and demand response – to support reliable, efficient power systems 👉 iea.li/4xn9Sqy
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Interesting article covering CfDs and the Interim Levy Rate. Maybe worth mentioning that the LCCC runs a 2-year forecast for the ILR. The Base Case forecast for the ILR rises from £7.73/MWh in Q1 2027 to £14.28/MWh in Q3 2028. ⸻ Ref: LCCC Dashboards www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/resources/sc...
Contracts for Difference
Two Year Forecast for the Interim Levy Rate, by Quarter.

The forecast Interim Levy Rate (base case) is
Q1 2027: £7.73/MWh
Q3 2028: £14.28/MWh

Source: LCCC Dashboards
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Hungary's nuclear power plant, the Soviet era Paks (4× 479 MW), has to stop generating because of low water levels in the Danube. As a notable detail, Hungary's rapidly rising solar output now exceeds its nuclear output during the summer months. 👇 ⸻ Ref: Ember ember-energy.org/data/electri...
A chart showing the share of electricity generation from clean sources in Hungary, by month, from January 2020 to June 2026.
In June 2026 solar generation has a higher fraction than nuclear generation.

Source: Ember Electricity Data Explorer
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