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Lightbucket

@lightbucket.bsky.social
172 followers 415 following 1.6K posts

20 years in academic physics, then 20 years running a physics-based tech company, now drifting towards semi-retirement. Looking at: decarbonisation; energy; Russia's war in Ukraine. Blog on Wordpress: lightbucket.wordpress.com

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Reposted by Lightbucket
Andrew Lawrence @ndrew.bsky.social · 6h
they did the thing
an october 11 2025 post from me reading: every single tech idea is like “soon our robots will be capable of playing catch with your kid, freeing you up to spend more time working on your employers’ spreadsheets”
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 9h
6/6 (…update) 8 October 2026 BUND seeks emergency injunction to stop the nuclear fuel project.  ❝ Germany's federal environment ministry reiterated its opposition to ​cooperation with Rosatom, but said the appropriate ​response ⁠would be EU sanctions on Russia's nuclear sector, ❞
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Robin Hawkes @robhawkes.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Here's the cumulative volume of curtailment and turn-up actions over the past week… We had a particularly heavy period of transmission constraint throughout September, both in terms of energy volume as well as cost. Why? ⬇️
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 03/10/2026
I often see people claim that because clean energy sources like solar, wind, or nuclear are manufactured using fossil fuels their emissions are high. But thats absolutely not the case: even accounting for full lifecycle emissions they are vastly better than burning coal or gas:
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Emily @emilydawn.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
@hockeyviz.com I found some beautiful data viz for you
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Robin Hawkes @robhawkes.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
We're pushing 1,500 MW today from the under-construction cluster of wind farms in the North Sea, and they're mostly capped at ~50% capacity for now When complete these three will be outputting at 3,800 MW on a windy day
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Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 29/09/2026
"It's been a very abusive relationship if you're an ally for the last eighteen months. The idea we can go back to trusting America is low." Distinguished Fellow Robin Niblett joined Times Radio to discuss his latest book 'After America' and the wider impact of Donald Trump's presidency.
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London Review of Books @lrb.co.uk · 20/09/2026
‘“Decarbonisation” was supposed to drive down prices and encourage consumers to switch from using fossil fuels for driving and heating. This hasn’t happened.’ @arthurdowning.bsky.social on Britain’s energy crisis: www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...
lrb.co.uk
Arthur Downing · Asset Sweating: Britain’s Energy Crisis
Britain has private ownership while making the state responsible for planning via subsidies. The result is a zombie...
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
2/2 (… September 2026 update) 24 September 2026  ❝ Slovakia's national power utility Slovenské Elektrárne has announced the energy start-up of the 471 MW Mochovce 4 nuclear reactor in Slovakia. ❞
enerdata.net
Slovakia approves start up of its 471 MW Mochovce 4 nuclear reactor
Slovakia's national power utility Slovenské Elektrárne has announced the energy start-up of the 471 MW Mochovce 4 nuclear reactor in Slovakia, following approval from the country’s Nuclear Regulatory ...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
WSJ: The AI build-out is on track to become the biggest economic bet in US history, dwarfing the investments made to fund other huge US infrastructure projects — such as the railroads, the highway system and the plumbing for the internet.” (via Jefferies)
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
FT Alphaville on the USS pension fund (a subject I have a rather direct personal interest in): 👇
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Timothy Burke @bubbaprog.xyz · 20/09/2026
hold up, this guy is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and he didn't know there were banking sanctions against Russia?
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Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 19/09/2026
Beef production has been the largest driver of deforestation this century. Over the last two decades, around 128 million hectares of forest have been cleared to make way for agriculture and forest plantations. That’s an area five times the size of the United Kingdom.
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Read it…
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
5/5 (… September 2026 update)  ❝ The Office for Nuclear Regulation, along with the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales, have been asked to begin a 3-step Generic Design Assessment (GDA) for X-energy UK Holdings Ltd.’s Xe-100 high-temperature gas-cooled reactor design. ❞
onr.org.uk
Regulators asked to commence GDA on X-energy reactor design | Office for Nuclear Regulation
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Peter Gleick @petergleick.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Given the outrageous, dangerous, and outright false statements made about how the polio (and other) vaccine was a "fraud" (at the Children's Health Defense conference), here's a reminder of what a massive success it was. RFK Jr. & his minions must be stopped from destroying the US healthcare system.
Graph of the number of cases and deaths from polio from 1910 to 2022, showing how polio completely disappeared after the introduction of the vaccine -- one of the most important health advances of the 20th century. Data from the US Public Health Services; the Center for Disease Control.
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
7/ Here are the LCCC's technology-averaged CfD strike prices for offshore wind, onshore wind and solar PV for the most recent seven quarters (CPI-adjusted). The strike prices haven't changed much, the low ILR is due to rising market prices. ⸻ Ref: LCCC www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/resources/sc... ⸻
A chart showing strike prices of UK Contracts for Difference by Technology Type
for Offshore Wind, Onshore Wind and Solar PV
for seven Quarterly Obligation Periods,
Q3 2025 to Q1 2027.

LCCC CfD Determination. CPI-adjusted prices.
Generation-weighted average strike price.

The offshore wind average strike price has risen from £143.25/MWh to £150.99/MWh over this period.

Source: LCCC Scheme Dashboards, CfD Determination.
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
6/ For Q1 2027, the strike prices for onshore wind and solar PV are far below the forecast Market Reference Prices, i.e. the forecast CfD subsidies are very negative. Offshore wind is the dominant CfD technology by generation. Its forecast CfD subsidy is rather low, about £15/MWh. ⸻
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
5/ The CfD subsidy is the difference between the CfD strike price and the Market Reference Price. These are the LCCC's forecast Market Reference Prices, by technology, for Q1 2027. For wind and PV they are in the £125/MWh – £135/MWh range. ⸻ Ref: LCCC www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/resources/sc... ⸻
A screenshot of the Low Carbon Contracts Company Dashboard,
showing the CfD Determination for Q1 2027 (i.e. January-March 2027).

Prices and Supplier Payments
CfD Average Market Reference Price (Nominal)

Offshore Wind: £135.44/MWh
Onshore Wind: £135.83/MWh
Solar PV: £125.82/MWh

Source: LCCC Dashboard
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
4/ Breaking down the CfD strike prices by technology, the LCCC forecasts the technology-averaged strike prices for Q1 2027 to be:  • Offshore wind: £150.99/MWh  • Onshore wind: £101.86/MWh  • Solar PV: £69.80/MWh ⸻ Ref: LCCC Dashboard www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/resources/sc... ⸻
A screenshot of the Low Carbon Contracts Company Dashboard,
showing the CfD Determination for Q1 2027 (i.e. January-March 2027).

Prices and Supplier Payments
CfD Weighted Average Strike Price (Nominal)

Offshore Wind: £150.99/MWh
Onshore Wind: £101.86/MWh
Solar PV: £69.80/MWh

Source: LCCC Dashboard
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Reposted by Lightbucket
Robin Hawkes @robhawkes.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
It's as if Sofia was listening. Note: this is "FPN" which means it's likely not the actual output (we'll need to wait days for that), but still…
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International Energy Agency @iea.org · 18/09/2026
Russian oil refinery activity recently fell to its lowest level in more than 20 years amid intensifying Ukrainian attacks on refineries. Our new commentary examines the situation in detail – as well as the implications for global oil markets → buff.ly/7inm4LO
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
3/ The very low Interim Levy Rate for Q3 2026 is due to an adjustment made late in the quarter to balance overpayments made earlier in the quarter. A lower ILR means a lower subsidy for CfD contracts, reflecting the rising wholesale price of electricity.
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
2/ Here's a history of the ILR. It hit zero from Q3 2021 to Q4 2022, during the last gas price crisis (when the ILR had a price floor of £0/MWh and couldn't go negative), but is now at its lowest point apart from that period. ⸻ Ref: ILR Settlement www.emrsettlement.co.uk/settlement-d...
A graph showing the CfD Interim Levy Rate for each Quarterly Obligation Period from Q2 2020 to Q1 2027.
It shows the adjusted rate at the end of each quarter.

The ILR was zero during the gas price crisis from Q3 2021 to Q4 2022, but is now at its lowest point apart from that period.

Data: ILR Settlement
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
1/ The Low Carbon Contracts Company has announced the Interim Levy Rate (ILR) for Q1 2027.  The ILR is £2.979/MWh. The ILR is the per-MWh charge all electricity suppliers pay to the LCCC to cover forecast payments from the LCCC to CfD generators. ⸻ Ref: www.emrsettlement.co.uk/document/set...
A screenshot of the EMR Key Figures document for 2026/27,
showing the Interim Levy Rate for
1 January 2027 - 31 March 2027,
the ILR is £2.979/MWh

Source: EMR Settlement
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Should have guessed that the thing that would eventually kill off the right's interest in grammar schools would be non-white kids doing too well in the 11+.
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
September 11th 2026: Bank of Russia *holds* its key interest rate at 14.0%. Next key rate meetings:  • 23 October 2026  • 18 December 2026 www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_... #Russianeconomy 10 years of interest rates, for context 👇: ⸻ Ref: tradingeconomics.com/russia/inter...
Changes in Russia's key interest rate, to 11 September 2026:

Sep. 16 2022: 7.5%
Jul. 21 2023: 8.5%
Aug. 15 2023 12%
Sep. 15 2023: 13%
Oct. 27 2023: 15%
Dec. 15 2023: 16%
Jul. 26 2024: 18%
Sep. 13 2024: 19%
Oct. 25 2024: 21%
Jun. 06 2025: 20%
Jul. 25 2025: 18%
Sep. 12 2025: 17%
Oct. 24 2025: 16.5%
Dec. 19 2025: 16%
Feb. 13 2026: 15.5%
Mar. 20 2026: 15.0%
Apr. 24 2026: 14.5%
Jun. 19 2026: 14.25%
Jul. 24 2026: 14.0%
Sep. 11 2026: 14.0%

Source: tradingeconomics.com | Central Bank of Russia.
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Moo Woo.
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public health guy @publichealthguy1.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
📈📈📈
Gas Station Price Sign Using Scientific Notation

the ONION
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Anthony Moser @anthonymoser.com · 10/09/2026
this is, I think, one of the inherent problems with LLMs using natural language interfaces: they are a statistical tool *that looks like* a logical tool statistical approaches can be a useful way to find related information! BUT for it to be useful you have to *know that's what it's doing*
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
The price of Brent crude oil is now $104/barrel. 👇 ⸻ Ref: Trading Economics tradingeconomics.com/commodity/br...
A chart showing the price of Brent crude oil for the 10 years to 10 September 2026.

The current price is $104/barrel.

Source: Trading Economics
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
The UK gas price is at 204 GB pence/therm, heading towards the 2022 price range. 👇 ⸻ Ref: Trading Economics tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk... Price unit: GB pence/therm
A chart showing the price of UK natural gas for the 10 years to 10 September 2026.

The current price is 204 pence per therm.

Source: Trading Economics
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Charles Fourier @charlesfourier.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Bill Bryson’s words seem appropriate to post right now
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
One reason England does so well is our second generation immigrants outperform their peers which is not true in most OECD countries. We are also very good at integration. And it's v sad that this is never acknowledge in debates on immigration.
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Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 08/09/2026
@ stephenkb.bsky.social hitting the nail on the head of course. "the Labour Party has now produced two governments whose response to acts of thuggery and intimidation is to reiterate that perhaps the thugs have a point" - as.ft.com/r/97d33f08-a...
as.ft.com
Labour’s muddled migration policy won’t stop thuggery
A government that can’t distinguish between ‘legitimate concerns’ and open racism is only making things worse
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The Arthur C. Clarke Award @clarkeaward.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Some scams are easier to spot than others. That said, we get these semi-regularly and they are only getting more focused and custom-tailored, so be careful writers! And, no, we didn’t reply, but it was super-tempting.
Text from a scam email message which reads:  

Hi Arthur C. Clarke,

I recently came across 2001: A Space Odyssey, the 25th Anniversary Edition, and wanted to reach out.

I’ve been connecting with authors whose books are available to readers but may not be reaching as many new audiences as they could.

I’m curious how has your experience been with book visibility and reaching new readers? And have you considered exploring new ways to promote your book or expand its reach to additional platforms?

I’d genuinely be interested in hearing your thoughts and experience.
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Barchart @barchart.com · 02/09/2026
Diesel Crack Spread soars to highest level in history 📈 📈
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
2/2 And this year it's the same again. Germany won't be closing any coal plants in 2029 either.
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
1/2 This time last year, Germany announced it wouldn't be closing any coal plants for a second year running. Its 2038 coal phaseout target is so lax it could afford to do absolutely nothing for two years running. ⸻ Ref: www.luxtimes.lu/europeanunio...
Bloomberg
News agency
01/09/2025

Germany has already met its 2028 goal for reducing coal-fired power generation, so won’t need to order the shutdown of any plants for a second year running, the country’s regulator said.
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Will Cooling @willcooling.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
He either increases income tax or he'll be another failed Prime Minister. It really is that simple
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FT Edit @ftedit.ft.com · 31/08/2026
Big tech giants reported more than $160bn last quarter in "other income". The source? Equity stakes in other AI companies ... Read the story on #FTEdit 👉 ft.trib.al/ostEx9j
Bar chart showing quarterly “other income” reported by Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia from 2016 to 2026. The figure remained relatively small until surging dramatically in 2025 and 2026, reaching more than $160bn in the latest quarter.
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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
This is very funny as GB News reports the potential impact of *falling* immigration. (This is pretty much cut and paste from the FT, so wonder if it's just automated/AI). www.gbnews.com/money/budget...
gbnews.com
Budget DISASTER as John Healey could face £4bn headroom shortfall after shocking immigration figures
The Chancellor is preparing to unveil his Budget policies on October 28
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Hungary's only nuclear power plant, Paks, is back to full power after a sharp drop in output from 29 July to 25 August, caused by low water levels in the river Danube.
A chart showing public net electricity generation in Hungary in 2026,
by day, from nuclear power.

 A large reduction in nuclear power output from 29 July to 25 August,
caused by low water levels in the river Danube.

Source: Energy Charts, Fraunhofer ISE
Original data: ENTSO-E
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Update: 27 August 2026. Plug-in solar panels go on sale in the UK for the first time on Thursday 27th August.
theguardian.com
Plug-in balcony solar panels to go on sale in UK for first time
DIY system will be stocked by big retailers, starting with Argos, enabling more homes to lower bills by generating own electricity
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
2/2 Part 3: A Whisper in the Turbine Hall unbalancingmechanism.substack.com/p/a-whisper-... Part 4: A Howling in the Exchange unbalancingmechanism.substack.com/p/a-howling-...
From: A Howling in the Exchange,
The Unbalancing Mechanism, Adam Bell.

Consumers are therefore essentially compelled to bear the cost of managing weather risk, despite in most cases being unable to manage it or indeed have any idea that this is now their job.
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
1/2 A four-part series of posts about Britain's electricity market, by @adambell.bsky.social: Part 1: A Buzzing in the Wires unbalancingmechanism.substack.com/p/a-buzzing-... Part 2: A Rattling Between The Pylons unbalancingmechanism.substack.com/p/a-rattling...
unbalancingmechanism.substack.com
A Buzzing in the Wires
Something is badly wrong in the electricity market
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Adam Bell @adambell.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
IS THE ELECTRICITY MARKET BROKEN? Yes, yes it is. The final part in my series on the wholesale electricity market finds that it structurally misallocates weather risk to consumers who really can't do much about the wind and sun. unbalancingmechanism.substack.com/p/a-howling-...
unbalancingmechanism.substack.com
A Howling in the Exchange
The final part of our series on the wholesale market looks at how risk in the system has been radically reallocated without anyone really meaning to do it.
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
2/2 The market price for electricity has risen, so the Interim Levy Rate, which is the subsidy for CfDs charged to electricity suppliers, has fallen. ⸻ Refs: EMR Settlement www.emrsettlement.co.uk/settlement-d... LCCC News, 18 Aug. 2026 www.lowcarboncontracts.uk/news/lccc-de...
emrsettlement.co.uk
Settlement Data for Suppliers - EMR Settlement Limited
Here you will find all the key information on settlement if you are a Supplier.
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Lightbucket @lightbucket.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
1/2 The Low Carbon Contracts Company has adjusted the Interim Levy Rate for Q3 and Q4 2026. The ILR for Q3 has been reduced from £10.559/MWh to £2.068/MWh. The ILR for Q4 has been reduced from £8.176/MWh to £5.529/MWh.
A screenshot of an Excel spreadsheet showing the Interim Levy Rate for Fiscal Year 2024/25.

The Interim Levy Rate for Q3 2026 has been adjusted
from £10.559/MWh to £2.068/MWh, effective 17 August 2026.

The Interim Levy Rate for Q4 2026 has been adjusted
from £8.176/MWh to £5.529/MWh, effective 1 October 2026.

Source: EMR Settlement
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🍁🇨🇦Team Canada Forever🇨🇦🍁 @teamcanadaforever.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
“America isn't the way it is because he's president. He's president because America is the way it is” — David Cochrane CBC Power and Politics
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