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Kevin O’Neill

@kevingoneill.github.io
1.6K followers 1.1K following 132 posts

Postdoc @ UCL studying causal judgment, counterfactual thinking, and metacognition kevingoneill.github.io

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Kevin O’Neill @kevingoneill.github.io · 29/09/2026
big congrats to my mentor @felipedebrigard.bsky.social for being recognized for his incredible work on memory & forgiveness! also props to his student @gabrielafm.bsky.social who is leading this research and to lab manager @kmiceli.bsky.social
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ari ☀️ @khoudary.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
how does memory support perceptual decisions made under uncertainty? this question has scaffolded my entire PhD, and I'm so excited to share part of it in this ✨new preprint ✨ w/ @meganakpeters.bsky.social and @aaronbornstein.bsky.social! link: www.biorxiv.org/content/10.6...
biorxiv.org
Memory retrieval explains dynamic effects of expectations on perceptual decisions
Expectations—prior knowledge of environmental statistics—support adaptive behavior by reducing uncertainty during inference. However, the questions of where expectations come from and how that ought t...
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John Pearson @jmxpearson.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
🚨Postdoc hiring alert! 🚨 Applications for the Flatiron Research Fellows 2027 cohort at the Center for Computational Neuroscience are now live: apply.interfolio.com/193800. Come work with us!
apply.interfolio.com
Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio
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Yongling Lin @yongling.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
New preprint✍️😃🥳. An attenuated 'we' alongside a heightened 'they' in borderline personality disorder.
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Marc Sommer @neurocircuits.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
📢 To everyone on the job market who has a vision for neuroscience applied to biomedical applications & technological innovation: The Duke Department of Biomedical Engineering announces a tenure-track faculty job search in neural engineering, broadly defined! academicjobsonline.org/ajo/jobs/32784
View of Duke Chapel looking up a quiet street framed by colorful autumn foliage
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Kevin O’Neill @kevingoneill.github.io · 17/09/2026
New commentary! Are scientists and laypeople alike under persistent illusions of understanding? Shiffrin, Stigler, & Keil (2026) seem to think so. I argue this isn't the case w/ @sharonchungsl.bsky.social, Adam Harris, @davidlagnado.bsky.social & @singmann.bsky.social: rdcu.be/3swzbgH3ePva
rdcu.be
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Wiktoria Kozyra @wiktoriakozyra.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
I’m very grateful to @smfleming.bsky.social for his supervision and @kevingoneill.github.io for a great collaboration. We show that the PE bias in confidence judgments can be a Bayes-optimal consequence of inference in high-dimensional spaces, and in CNNs, the bias also increases with dimensionality
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Kevin O’Neill @kevingoneill.github.io · 17/09/2026
New commentary! Are scientists and laypeople alike under persistent illusions of understanding? Shiffrin, Stigler, & Keil (2026) seem to think so. I argue this isn't the case w/ @sharonchungsl.bsky.social, Adam Harris, @davidlagnado.bsky.social & @singmann.bsky.social: rdcu.be/3swzbgH3ePva
rdcu.be
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joannad-c.bsky.social @joannad-c.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Hiring! 🧠❤️🤔If you’re a philosopher working in ethics/ x-phi/ empirically informed moral philosophy / moral psychology / applied ethics, consider applying for a 2.5 year research postdoc with me in my lab at Oxford. Deadline noon 16th Oct. Details 👉 philjobs.org/job/show/32101 Hit me up with q’s!
static.klipy.com
Shameless Fiona Gallagher
ALT: Shameless Fiona Gallagher
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Rochelle Kaper @rochellekaper.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
PREPRINT UPDATE🥳👇: 🧠learning under uncertainty & metacognitive processes are not as generalizable as previously thought! both evolve differently depending on structure & stimulus set osf.io/preprints/ps...
osf.io
OSF
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Nature Reviews Neuroscience @natrevneuro.nature.com · 16/09/2026
Towards an integrative neuroscience of metacognition — a Review by Stephen M. Fleming #neuroscience #neuroskyence www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Towards an integrative neuroscience of metacognition - Nature Reviews Neuroscience
The capacity to self-evaluate and control one’s own cognitive performance, known as metacognition, underpins adaptive learning, social behaviours and self-belief. Stephen Fleming outlines our current ...
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Micah G. Allen @micahgallen.com · 16/09/2026
How do you model what your heartbeat feels like? Our new Bayesian toolbox makes models of cardiac and respiratory interoception easier to use and interpret, with familiar R formulas and worked tutorials. New publication 🧪: link.springer.com/article/10.3...
link.springer.com
Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of interoceptive psychophysics - Behavior Research Methods
Interoception, the capacity to sense, perceive, and metacognitively appraise viscerosensory and homeostatic signals, is a growing focus in psychology and psychiatry. Adaptive psychophysical tasks now ...
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Martin Modrák @modrakm.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
I will be looking for a PhD student in Bayesian statistics (in collaboration with Paul Bürkner), located in Prague. Forward to students if you have somebody who could be interested. www.martinmodrak.cz/grammo-call/
martinmodrak.cz
Grammo - Let's Research Bayes!
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Kevin O’Neill @kevingoneill.github.io · 15/09/2026
delighted to have been able to chip in on this newly published paper by @wiktoriakozyra.bsky.social & @smfleming.bsky.social on how confidence “biases” arise from normative Bayesian models!
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Mediterranean Society for Consciousness Science @mesec-community.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
How can students and postdocs shape their field of research? We're excited to share our TiCS piece, showcasing MESEC as a case study for exactly this question! So grateful for our wonderful community of MESECeers 🤗 doi.org/10.1016/j.ti... *Free access* link: authors.elsevier.com/a/1njPQ4sIRv...
doi.org
Redirecting
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Nina Van Rooy @ninavanrooy.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Next week Saturday, I am giving a public lecture on philosophy of animal minds at NC State! Full details: What: lecture by Nina Van Rooy, 'Human-Centered Bias in the Study of Animal Minds' When: Saturday Sept 5th, 11 am - 1 pm Where: Talley Student Union, Room 3285, NC State University, Raleigh
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Justin Weinberg @dailynous.com · 26/08/2026
The Lebowitz prize is awarded to two philosophers with contrasting views on a topic. This year's winners are...
dailynous.com
De Brigard and Robins Win 2026 Lebowitz Prize - Daily Nous
The American Philosophical Association (APA) has announced the winners of its 2026 Dr. Martin R. Lebowitz and Eve Lewellis Lebowitz Prize. They are: Felipe De Brigard, Professor of Philosophy and Psyc...
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Nina Van Rooy @ninavanrooy.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
The ball is rolling! Really excited that our paper showing no norm effects on causal judgments with continuous causes is now up as a preprint! See the thread by @kevingoneill.github.io in the post below for an overview of what we do in this paper. #psychology #x-phi
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Kevin O’Neill @kevingoneill.github.io · 17/08/2026
having almost made this mistake myself, I’m glad somebody wrote this paper!
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
All four books I've co-authored are freely available online for non-commercial use: - Bayesian Workflow at avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor... Links to other three books are in the quoted post 👇 (too many books to fit in one post!)
avehtari.github.io
Bayesian Workflow book: Website – Bayesian Workflow book
Website for the Bayesian Workflow book by Gelman, Vehtari, McElreath, et al. — case studies, code, and exercises in R and Stan.
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Kevin O’Neill @kevingoneill.github.io · 10/08/2026
new preprint! in my final grad school project led by @kmiceli.bsky.social & @ninavanrooy.bsky.social w/@felipedebrigard.bsky.social, we challenge ~20yrs of causal cognition research by finding a context in which people's causal judgments are completely *unaffected* by norms! osf.io/preprints/ps...
osf.io
OSF
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Nora Harhen @noraharhen.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
How do we make good decisions with little experience? Adults can rely on memories of past choices. In our new study in @pnas.org we show kids & teens do something similar–but what they remember turns out to be quite different! www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
pnas.org
Developmental changes in memory structure and precision alter the use of retrieved episodes during decisions for reward | PNAS
Most widely studied option evaluation strategies rely on knowledge accumulated across repeated experiences. But how should options be evaluated in ...
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Kevin O’Neill @kevingoneill.github.io · 10/08/2026
new preprint! in my final grad school project led by @kmiceli.bsky.social & @ninavanrooy.bsky.social w/@felipedebrigard.bsky.social, we challenge ~20yrs of causal cognition research by finding a context in which people's causal judgments are completely *unaffected* by norms! osf.io/preprints/ps...
osf.io
OSF
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Danielle Navarro @djnavarro.net · 06/08/2026
The title is a little pointed, but I am very serious here. Academics, medical researchers, and other organisations should not collect data on birth sex. It is rarely relevant, and it almost always leads to privacy violations for transgender people. Please share. I would like people to read this one.
blog.djnavarro.net
Separating sex and gender is statistical malpractice – Notes from a data witch
Statisticians and academics in Australia should ignore the terrible advice of most LGBTIQA+ organisations and read this post instead. The 2020 ABS standard is almost never the correct way to collect d...
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Saurabh @saurabhr.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
There are 17 different methods to measure whether confidence tracks accuracy, and these do not include Bayesian or Information Theory based measurements. We present MetaSignal with @makwana.bsky.social @lazyneuron.bsky.social and @brianodegaard.bsky.social to have common platform to access them.
metasignal logo
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SPAN @socphilneuro.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Join us for the Philosophy & Neuroscience Palooza at the PSA! 🧠 8:30-10:00am: DSPNW's “Neurophilosophy at 40” featuring Patricia Churchland 🧠10:15-11:45am: SPAN's meet the author session with David Sussillo 🧁 🍇🥯 Light breakfast will be served at each session!
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Nina Van Rooy @ninavanrooy.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
My preprint on theory of mind in large language models is up! I argue that we cannot simply transfer a psychological measure designed to test for ToM in biological organisms to a complex artificial system and assume it measures the same thing. Comments welcome. philpapers.org/rec/VANDGH-2
The first page of a PDF preprint paper titled 'Does GPT-4 Have Theory of Mind? Testing for Familiar Cognitive Capacities in Large Language Models' by Nina Van Rooy.
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Rochelle Kaper @rochellekaper.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
heading to nyc to give a talk at the Metacognition Science Satellite at #CCN2026 this sunday🗽🤔 catch me in the metacognition in novel task domains session @ 2:30🤗 w/ @meganakpeters.bsky.social
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
priorsense R package has now JOSS paper "priorsense: Efficient prior and likelihood sensitivity checks for Bayesian models in R" you can cite, too doi.org/10.21105/jos... with Noa Kallioinen, Topi Paananen, and @paulbuerkner.com priorsense achieved also a gold badge from @ropensci.org review!
doi.org
priorsense: Efficient prior and likelihood sensitivity checks for Bayesian models in R
Kallioinen et al., (2026). priorsense: Efficient prior and likelihood sensitivity checks for Bayesian models in R. Journal of Open Source Software, 11(123), 11036, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.11036
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Peter Kok @peterkok.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
The PhD position in our lab closes 31 July - apply now!
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Jiong Xiao @jiongx.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
I’ll give a flash talk virtually at #CogSci2026 1045-1115 tomorrow(Rio time) on the work “Bounded Adaptive Control by Modeling Linearly and Acting Locally”. We explore how people achieve adaptive multidimensional control given limited computational resources. Feel free to reach out and chat!
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Nicolás Sánchez-Fuenzalida @n41c0.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
well on time for my bi-yearly post I'm sharing the final version of this very cool work we started with @cjungerius.bsky.social @smfleming.bsky.social @svangaal.bsky.social @fahrenfort.bsky.social in 2021, when I was young and full of hope. Now out in @natcomms.nature.com 1/11
nature.com
The act of detecting a stimulus contaminates measures of conscious experience with decision biases - Nature Communications
A central challenge in consciousness research is determining whether people truly experience a stimulus. Here, the authors show that context biases traditional detection measures, whereas continuous r...
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tadegquillien.bsky.social @tadegquillien.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
You roll a fair die, hoping to get a 6. If you are successful, did you *intentionally* roll a 6? In a new paper, I explain why people hesitate to call lucky outcomes intentional:🧵 direct.mit.edu/opmi/article...
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Kevin O’Neill @kevingoneill.github.io · 20/07/2026
I'm heading to #CogSci2026 @cogscisociety.bsky.social this evening, looking forward to seeing lots of new & familiar faces! 🇧🇷 I'll be presenting this paper: A measure of metacognitive bias you can be confident in 📍: T.18.3 🗓️: July 24th, 2-3:30pm 👥: @tianqizhan.bsky.social @smfleming.bsky.social
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Martin Modrák @modrakm.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Multiverse analysis, abdication of responsibility and manufacturing of doubt: I have written on some downsides I see with multiverse analysis (which I like in principle): arxiv.org/abs/2607.14623 I was inspired/provoked to write it by @dingdingpeng.the100.ci (thanks!)
Abstract: I argue that multiverse analysis is highly suited to two undesirable uses: abdication of researcher's responsibility for their conclusion and manufacturing of doubt. A review of multiverse analyses published in 2025 provides tentative empirical support that abdication of responsibility is present in the literature and I mention anecdotal evidence that multiverse has been used for manufacturing of doubt about Covid-19 precautions. To mitigate negative effects if multiverse analysis becomes widely used I suggest the community adopts two conventions for evaluating multiverse analyzes: evaluating multiverses by the single worst universe they contain and considering large size of a multiverse as a sign of weakness rather than a praiseworthy achievement.
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aaron bornstein @aaronbornstein.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Looking to work with a postdoc. Prior experience with fMRI and computational modeling required, interest in psychiatry desired. Fellowship provides three years salary plus independent travel/equipment funds. Send CV and 2-3 manuscripts (preprints OK).
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Tobias Gerstenberg @tobigerstenberg.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Now out in Noûs: A communication-first account of explanation, with Jacqueline Harding (jacquelineharding.github.io) and Thomas Icard (stanford.edu/~icard/). Paper: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... Preprint: arxiv.org/abs/2505.03732
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Antje Nuthmann @anuthmann.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Check out our new preprint!
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samuel mehr @mehr.nz · 16/07/2026
calling all researchers who collect data from humans 🧠🧪 we are running a very brief survey (<1 min) about jsPsych, the software ecosystem for browser-based data collection. if you use jsPsych, or if you collect data with any other software, please fill it out at tinyurl.com/jspsych-census!
I am writing on behalf of the leadership of jsPsych, the software ecosystem for browser-based data collection used in experiments and surveys from many labs worldwide.

It has been difficult for us to figure out how widespread jsPsych usage is, because the software is freely available online and we do not collect any information about downloads, users, experiments posted online, etc. While the software has been cited in thousands of articles, jsPsych usage is likely more widespread than those citations imply, because not every project using jsPsych leads to a citation, and because there are also often substantial delays between actual jsPsych usage and a publication. As such, we are conducting a very brief census of jsPsych users.

If you collect data from humans using jsPsych or any other type of software, we would appreciate your filling out a very brief survey (<1 min) at tinyurl.com/jspsych-census. This will help us to understand how many people, labs, and institutions are current or former users of jsPsych, information that will help support the long-term sustainability of the jsPsych ecosystem.

We would also appreciate it if you could circulate this message to your lab, your department listserv, and your collaborators, to help ensure that it reaches as many members of the research community as possible. The survey is being distributed by Josh de Leeuw, Melissa Kline Struhl, and myself. Please contact me (sam@auckland.ac.nz) off-list if you have any questions about it.
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Allie Sinclair @asinclair.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Interested in memory updating, exploration, structure learning, & reward? @hannahtarder-stoll.bsky.social & I are looking for candidates to apply for a Connected Minds Postdoctoral Fellowship at York University, with the opportunity to work at Rice too. Contact Hannah or me for details! #PsychJobs
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Hannah Tarder-Stoll @hannahtarder-stoll.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Interested in memory updating, exploration, structure learning, & reward? @asinclair.bsky.social & I are looking for candidates to apply for a Connected Minds Postdoctoral Fellowship at York University, with the opportunity to work at Rice too. Contact Allie or me for details! #PsychJobs
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Peter Kok @peterkok.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
The hippocampus sits at the interface of perception & memory, allowing us to link past, present, & future through its role in generating predictions. Excited to share this theme issue in @royalsociety.org's Philosophical Transactions B, co-edited with @barense.bsky.social & @mariamaly.bsky.social
royalsocietypublishing.org
Volume 381 Issue 1954 | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B | The Royal Society
Influential themed journal issues across the life sciences.
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Nick Byrd, Ph.D. @byrdnick.com · 07/07/2026
Why do events run out of #plantBased food and have leftover #meat? Cuz #vegan meals are often more appetizing! I don't blame omnivores who leave the meat and grab the lentils, quinoia, peppers, olives, greens, etc. It's time catering defaulted to vegan: qr.ae/pF4hae
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Henrik Singmann @singmann.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Finally out in Psychological Review (psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/...), our update to Signal Detection Theory. We show that contrary to the prevailing Gaussian assumption, evidence distributions in recognition memory are likely minimum extreme Gumbel!
Figure 7: Illustration of the Gumbel-min Signal Detection Model
Figure consists of three panels.
Bottom-left panel: The Gumbel-min latent-strength distributions associated with SIGNAL (old) and NOISE (new) items. Top-left panel: The log likelihood ratio (log-LR) for the two latent-strength distributions. Right panel: The receiver operating characteristic function produced by the two latent-strength distributions. pH = hit probabilities; pFA = false-alarm probabilities.
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LSP-ENS @lsp-ens.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Congrats to all LSP speakers & poster presenters at BEYSE 🎉 @mamassian.bsky.social @tarrynbalsdon.bsky.social @lotfiahmad.bsky.social @ljubicajovanovic.bsky.social @eecasey.bsky.social @alelorcavyhmeister.bsky.social @Yves Boubenec @Mathilde Martin @Hugo Tissot
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Open Mind @openmindjournal.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Luck and Intentional Action: A Causal Account
direct.mit.edu
Luck and Intentional Action: A Causal Account
Abstract. Can you perform an action intentionally if there was only a small chance your action would succeed? Researchers studying the folk concept of intentional action have documented complex…
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Olivia Guest · Ολίβια Γκεστ @olivia.science · 04/07/2026
I dunno if this is offensive to say because I seem to upset people when I say this, but humanities people should consider joining us, or at least join us in decoupling from Word and other MS products where we can... and @acollierastro.bsky.social says it more convincingly than I can!
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Rob Calver @robcalver.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
I am giving away a free copy of the #BayesianWorkflow book by @statmodeling.bsky.social, @avehtari.bsky.social, @rmcelreath.bsky.social et al!! Please like, repost, and follow to enter. I will randomly draw the winner next Weds July 8. 😀 routledge.com/9780367490140 #RStats #DataScience #Bayesian
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Chaz Firestone @chazfirestone.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
You press ‘send’ on a high-stakes email but hesitate when lifting your finger. You make a chess move but linger on the piece before letting go. Familiar? In @pnas.org, Hanbei Zhou @ruizhegoh.bsky.social @ianbphillips.bsky.social & I show that response *duration* tracks confidence! shorturl.at/A9NVe
Two images, one of a finger pressed a key, another of a hand on a chess pieceScreenshot of first page of paper, "Response duration tracks confidence"
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Mel Andrews @bayesianboy.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
As philosophy rushes to claim expertise on AI, AI companies rush to control the philosophical narrative. Unlike other disciplines, philosophy has no standards for reporting conflicts of interest. This petition endeavors to change that: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
docs.google.com
Open Letter about Industry Funding and Disclosure in Philosophy
*For full list of signatories, updated every few hours, please click here.* In recent years, philosophical writing on areas such as climate change, technology, misinformation, and artificial intellige...
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