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Joey Schnaubelt

@jschnaubelt.bsky.social
732 followers 404 following 110 posts

Paleoclimate, climate modeling, atmospheric rivers, the Last Interglacial, ice sheets, grad student at UConn. He/him. 🏃🚴🧗

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Reposted by Joey Schnaubelt
Roland Pease @peaseroland.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Very readable account of the Navier-Stokes equations, the Millennium Prize and the AI spat that's making the maths headlines. www.quantamagazine.org/ai-has-solve...
quantamagazine.org
AI Has Solved One of Math’s $1 Million Millennium Prize Problems | Quanta Magazine
Mathematicians at OpenAI showed that the Navier-Stokes equations, which describe how fluids flow, can sometimes “blow up.” But the massive result is not without controversy.
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Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
The difference in utility between the use of ML to tackle big data problems that would otherwise be intractable & the use of LLMs to produce pointless slop is so large they cannot both be usefully described as “AI“. The first is making real progress, the second is dragging us towards the abyss.
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Dr. Aaron Thierry @thierryaaron.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
"Our synthesis suggests that the AMOC strength acts as a ‘heat valve’ that alters planetary temperature by changing the radiative balance. This implies amplified planetary heat uptake in response to projected future #AMOC weakening."
nature.com
Planetary energy budget during abrupt glacial climate events set by Atlantic Ocean heat valve - Nature Geoscience
Variations in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation strength through abrupt Dansgaard–Oeschger events during Pleistocene glacial periods controlled ocean heat content, and heat uptake by the pla...
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
The Glacial-Interglacial CO2-Temperature Relationship agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/... '... implies either age errors are substantially underestimated, or local variations in temperature became more synchronized over the more recent glacial-interglacial cycles'
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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Reposted by Joey Schnaubelt
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 13/07/2026
With all the July model runs now in, it is very likely that 2026 will see the largest El Niño event since records began in the late 1800s – and potentially by a truly mind-blowing margin. The median estimate is now 3.6C, roughly 0.8C hotter than the prior record (2.75C). www.theclimatebrink....
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Kate Marvel @drkatemarvel.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Last day to submit a public comment on these proposed rules, which would hand complete control of American science over to the people who brought you ICE, war, and a diarrhea epidemic agu.quorum.us/campaign/163...
agu.quorum.us
Stop OMB From Erasing Federal Research
A new proposed rule rewrites the terms of U.S. science
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Reposted by Joey Schnaubelt
Christine Siddoway @iphigenesdream.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
A new take on continental glaciation, just out in @aaas.org Science : Continental breakup–driven uplift instigated East Antarctic Ice Sheet formation @gernon.bsky.social
science.org
Continental breakup–driven uplift instigated East Antarctic Ice Sheet formation
Why Antarctica became glaciated ∼34 million years ago (Ma) remains debated, as relatively warm climates and sea temperatures appear inconsistent with ice sheet formation. Although a critical decline i...
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Reposted by Joey Schnaubelt
Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
'Our findings suggest that Siku events may have played a critical role in preconditioning the North Atlantic for Heinrich events' www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
North Pacific meltwater weakens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and preconditions Heinrich Stadial 1 - Nature Communications
This study shows that Cordilleran ice discharge to the North Pacific may have triggered AMOC weakening during Heinrich Stadials, potentially destabilizing the European and Laurentide Ice Sheets and le...
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Joey Schnaubelt @jschnaubelt.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Dissertation defense is off to a great start.
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Reposted by Joey Schnaubelt
Paul Harnik @paulharnik.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
We are pleased to announce that the Dept of Earth & Environmental Geosciences @colgate.edu is hiring a tenure-stream asst professor in paleoclimate! For additional info regarding the position & to apply: apply.interfolio.com/188708 . Please share broadly & contact us with your questions. Thank you!
apply.interfolio.com
Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio
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Reposted by Joey Schnaubelt
Leo Hickman @leohickman.carbonbrief.org · 24/06/2026
Letter in today's Times by climate scientist Sir Brian Hoskins: "The discourse around net-zero is increasingly decoupled from…science and our changing weather. "Net-zero is not an arbitrary slogan, rather it is dictated by the laws of physics."
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Peter Cox @coxypm.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Extremely-timely paper by Patric Boardman! Recent record breaking warm years do not warrant an increase in our estimate of the Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2 (but they do warrant much greater efforts to avoid exceeding 2degC!). @gsiexeter.bsky.social esd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...
esd.copernicus.org
Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity and recent record-breaking warm years
Abstract. The Earth's climate sensitivity remains a significant source of uncertainty in climate projections. A key metric is the Transient Climate Response (TCR), which incorporates aspects of Equili...
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Reposted by Joey Schnaubelt
Thomas Bauska @tinyicybubbles.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
My personal take-home: always test the "null" hypothesis when it comes to palaeoclimate. Eric Mei, @bayesicallyalex.bsky.social, @cristiproist.bsky.social, et al., www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... Fun times working with Eric on this as part of @fetch4.bsky.social
pnas.org
Multidecadal preindustrial methane variability can be explained by noise in the source–sink imbalance | PNAS
Ice core records of preindustrial methane indicate variability of ±30 ppb (±5%) on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Previous work has attribu...
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Reposted by Joey Schnaubelt
Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
🌊 Human-driven sea-level rise has quadrupled the frequency of coastal sea-level extremes since 1900 👉 historical 1-in-100-year coastal flood event has increased ~12× globally. 👉 natural variability now secondary across most coastlines. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Human-driven sea-level rise has quadrupled the frequency of coastal sea-level extremes since 1900 - Nature Climate Change
Sea-level rise in conjunction with storm surge and tidal variations leads to extreme sea levels that threaten coastal systems. Here the authors use tide-gauge data and models to quantify how anthropog...
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Reposted by Joey Schnaubelt
Nick Golledge @nick-golledge.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Finally published in its typeset form, our paper on present & future surface melt across Antarctica is now available (open access) here: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Expansion of Antarctic surface melt through the 21st century - Nature Communications
Assessing the impact of rising air temperatures on the Antarctic Ice Sheet is hampered by the coarse resolution of climate models. Here, the authors use an observationally constrained statistical meth...
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Michael E. Mann @michaelemann.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Print version of my article for @chinadaily.bsky.social:
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Reposted by Joey Schnaubelt
David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
It should be illegal to manufacture electric micromobility devices that go above 20 mph. And yes, cars should have speed governors.
nytimes.com
Scooter Rider and Cyclist Are Killed in Head-On Crash on N.Y.C. Bridge
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Dr. Aaron Thierry @thierryaaron.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
1/3 "The narrow viability boundaries we identify lend quantitative support to concerns raised by proponents of a non-use agreement, which contend that the systemic risks of SRM may be unacceptably high in a real-world context of geopolitical instability and failed cooperation"
iopscience.iop.org
Economic assessment of SRM under socio-political and geophysical tipping dynamics
Economic assessment of SRM under socio-political and geophysical tipping dynamics, Estrada, Francisco, Bastien-Olvera, Bernardo A, Calderon-Bustamante, Oscar, Altamirano, Miguel A, Muñoz-Sánchez, Rodrigo, Moreno-Cruz, Juan, Botzen, Wouter
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Joey Schnaubelt @jschnaubelt.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
Our paper (led by Austin Carter) is out today! A new dust record from the Allan Hills, East Antarctica show an abrupt shift in dust geochemistry and increase in accumulation right at the start of the Last Interglacial. 🧵🧪❄️⚒️🥼
nature.com
Diminished Ross Ice Shelf and West Antarctic Ice Sheet during Last Interglacial warming - Nature Geoscience
Dust derived from Antarctic sources measured in an ice core from the Allan Hills spanning the peak of the Last Interglacial suggests that the Ross Sea was probably open at the time, coincident with a ...
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Joey Schnaubelt @jschnaubelt.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
Our paper (led by Austin Carter) is out today! A new dust record from the Allan Hills, East Antarctica show an abrupt shift in dust geochemistry and increase in accumulation right at the start of the Last Interglacial. 🧵🧪❄️⚒️🥼
nature.com
Diminished Ross Ice Shelf and West Antarctic Ice Sheet during Last Interglacial warming - Nature Geoscience
Dust derived from Antarctic sources measured in an ice core from the Allan Hills spanning the peak of the Last Interglacial suggests that the Ross Sea was probably open at the time, coincident with a ...
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Nature Geoscience @natgeosci.nature.com · 25/05/2026
⚒️ Article: Dust records from an Allan Hills ice core indicate the Ross Sea was likely open through the peak of the Last Interglacial, coincident with a smaller West Antarctic Ice Sheet @lamont.columbia.edu www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Diminished Ross Ice Shelf and West Antarctic Ice Sheet during Last Interglacial warming - Nature Geoscience
Dust derived from Antarctic sources measured in an ice core from the Allan Hills spanning the peak of the Last Interglacial suggests that the Ross Sea was probably open at the time, coincident with a ...
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Reposted by Joey Schnaubelt
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences @pnas.org · 16/05/2026
Ice core water-isotope records from eight locations in Antarctica spanning 400,000 years show that the warmest parts of the continent have had the most temperature variability. In PNAS: ow.ly/OmwB50YZOhp
Antarctic temperature reconstructions based on stable-isotope ratios from eight deep ice core records. Inset shows locations of cores on the Antarctic continent
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Reposted by Joey Schnaubelt
Justin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Rainfall intensity matters as much as how much rain falls. New in Nature: Corey Lesk and I show that daily-scale concentration of precipitation dries the land over the long-run, an effect as strong as total precipitation is climatological wetting. Paper here: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
More concentrated precipitation decreases terrestrial water storage - Nature
Concentration of precipitation in large events decreases land water availability, and this effect will further increase with a future warming climate.
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Dr Charlie Williams @charliejrwill.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Paper alert! V pleased to announce my latest paper "The relative role of direct orbital forcing versus CO2 & ice feedbacks on Quaternary climate", in Nature Communications - doi.org/10.1038/s414..., with @natalieslord.bsky.social, @climatesamwell.bsky.social, @thefosterlab.bsky.social + many others!
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Jacquelyn Gill @jacquelyngill.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
On NSF’s postdoc page, the biology and earth science fields have been completely eliminated; the only remaining fellowships are in math, astronomy, engineering, and “entrepreneurship.” Weird choice not to support research on the life support system for 8 billion people. www.nsf.gov/funding/post...
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Dr. Tripti Bhattacharya @triptychphrases.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
How can records of the past inform our understanding of extreme events? Join the National Academies on April 29 for a webinar releasing a new report on a proposed Center for Paleoenvironmental Records of Extreme Events (CPREE). Register: events.nationalacademies.org/46602
events.nationalacademies.org
Functions and Criteria for a New Center for Paleoenvironmental Records of Extreme Events: Report Release Webinar
Register for this event from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.
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Reposted by Joey Schnaubelt
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment @natrevearthenviron.nature.com · 07/04/2026
New online! Global glacier mass change in 2025
dlvr.it
Global glacier mass change in 2025
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Published online: 07 April 2026; doi:10.1038/s43017-026-00777-zGlaciers lost 408 ± 132 Gt of mass during the hydrological year 2025, equivalent to 1.1 ± 0.4 mm sea-level rise. Since 1975, glacier mass loss has totalled 9,583 ± 1,211 Gt, equivalent to 26.4 ± 3.3 mm of sea-level rise, with six of the highest mass-loss years on record occurring in the past seven years.
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
🌊 If the AMOC collapses, the ocean could flip from a carbon sink → carbon source. Mechanism: ↓ NADW formation ↓ Carbon sequestration efficiency ↑ Atmospheric CO2 Net effect: a shift toward ocean-driven carbon release and enhanced warming (positive feedback) www.nature.com/articles/s43...
nature.com
Collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation would lead to substantial oceanic carbon release and additional global warming - Communications Earth & Environment
The collapse of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation would result in increase of 47-83 ppm of global mean atmospheric carbon dioxide and 0. 2 °C of additional global warming at higher carb...
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Alex Robel @iceclimate.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
We have a new perspective piece out at Nature Geoscience taking a critical view of how we talk about ice sheet stability and where we can go from here. Check it out! rdcu.be/faUdM
rdcu.be
A new paradigm for understanding Earth’s marine ice sheets
Nature Geoscience - Grounding-line motion of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is driven by climate variability, challenging the assumption that the bed slope at the grounding line alone controls their...
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Nature Geoscience @natgeosci.nature.com · 24/03/2026
⚒️ Article: Entrained debris records regrowth of the Greenland Ice Sheet after the last interglacial www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Entrained debris records regrowth of the Greenland Ice Sheet after the last interglacial - Nature Geoscience
Englacial structures in the Greenland Ice Sheet contain debris lifted hundreds of metres into the ice column, likely forming as the expanding ice sheet overrode its frozen margin following the last in...
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Nature @nature.com · 24/03/2026
Antarctic ice cores hint that changes in the ocean might have played a larger part than have greenhouse gases in key climate shifts of the past three million years go.nature.com/4uFWL38
go.nature.com
Climate snapshots trapped in ancient ice tell a surprising story
Antarctic ice cores hint that changes in the ocean might have played a larger part than have greenhouse gases in key climate shifts of the past three million years.
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Fafnir: Nordic Journal of Science Fiction and Fantasy Research @fafnirjournal.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
In "Climate Models as a Retroactive and Exploratory World-building Tool," John Cook et al examine the fantasy worlds of J.R.R. Tolkien, George R.R. Martin & Robert Jordan, as well as one built by Cook, as speculative climate models on a global scale. Read here: fafnir.journal.fi/article/view...
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
A nice example of the high scientific standard of the IPCC when it comes to downplay the warming Complex Earth system models are needed to simulate all these feedback's now becoming operational #climate #IPCC #CMIP
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Evaluating Physical Climate Model Emulators for Global Warming Projections
We propose a novel framework for evaluating physical climate model emulators for use in global warming projections Calibrating a widely used emulator to match the historical warming of GCMs does ...
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Reposted by Joey Schnaubelt
Nature @nature.com · 06/03/2026
Nature research paper: Sea level much higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments go.nature.com/4lesnZA
go.nature.com
Sea level much higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments - Nature
Meta-analyses on a global scale show that the measured coastal mean sea level is higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments.
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
The amount of misogyny is academia remains horrific -- and even worse, it is not going away with the older generation as one might have hoped. It is being recapitulated in a new generation.
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
🌊 Sea level much higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Sea level much higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments - Nature
Meta-analyses on a global scale show that the measured coastal mean sea level is higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
A multiple-satellite study of Antarctica’s grounding line area show a loss of 12,820 km2 over the last 30 years. Grounding lines are the contact points where continental ice sheets anchor to the seabed, slowing their flow into the oceans. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... #Antarctica #sealevelrise
pnas.org
Thirty years of glacier grounding line retreat in Antarctica | PNAS
The Grounding Line (GL)—the transition from ice grounded on the continent and ice afloat in the ocean—is a sensitive indicator of glacier stability...
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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 25/02/2026
"From 2010 to 2024, ERF trends are ∼1.0 W m² per decade for both net and shortwave fluxes, exceeding those for 2001–2024 and substantially larger than projections from state‐of‐the‐art models" doi.org/10.1029/2025...
doi.org
Emerging Effective Radiative Forcing in the Radiative Imbalance Since 2010
Observed top-of-atmosphere radiation fluxes and surface warming reveal a strong rise in effective radiative forcing (ERF) since 2010 Feedback responses are constrained using observed interannual ...
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Joey Schnaubelt @jschnaubelt.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Big Friday energy on Nature this afternoon 🧪
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Nature Portfolio @natureportfolio.nature.com · 25/02/2026
The results of a study in Nature Climate Change imply that the Antarctic Ice Sheet does not act as one single tipping element, but rather as several tipping systems interacting across drainage basins. go.nature.com/4rFXQ9q 🧪
This is figure 1, which shows a risk map of Antarctic ice catchment basins.
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Jonathan Wille @jonathanwille.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
East Antarctica has been the epicenter for unusually persistent blocking and atmospheric river landfalls that have resulted in some extreme high temperatures. From February 12-March 1, I've noted 5 distinct atmospheric river events observed/forecasted over Wilkes Land.
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Howard Lee @hlee.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
🤯⚒️🧪❄️ "Preliminary dating, based on the presence of fossilized algae that only existed during specific geological periods, suggests that the core represents an archive of the past 23 million years" in West Antarctica
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements - a review "Global warming must peak below 2°C, return to below 1.5°C as quickly as possible (i.e. within this century), and to around 1°C thereafter to limit tipping point risks". iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
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Joey Schnaubelt @jschnaubelt.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Google Maps is like really bad in Antarctica by the way
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The Weather & Climate Livestream @wclivestream.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Last December, weather and climate scientists sat down with us to tell us why they loved the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and why it benefits us all. Last night, the NSF began dismantling it. Listen to what they have to say, and why it's urgent that we #SaveNCAR wclivestream.com/act
youtube.com
We ❤️ NCAR - Let's Save It!
YouTube video by The Weather & Climate Livestream
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Isabel González @anaigmendez.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
Excited to have this paper out showing a strong coupling between Central American tree-ring oxygen isotopes and ocean–atmosphere dynamics (interbasin SST gradients, ITCZ, CLLJ... ). Many thanks to all co-authors! agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Oxygen Isotopes in Tree Rings Track Neotropical Climate Dynamics
Tree-ring δ18O from Abies guatemalensis in Central America captures interannual variations in boreal summer rainfall Lighter δ18O years are associated with a weakening of the Caribbean Low-Level ...
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Julius Garbe @juliusgarbe.github.io · 16/02/2026
🔔🚨 New Publication Alert! Research has shown that the Antarctic Ice Sheet is a climate tipping element. We found: it’s not one — it’s many. 📄 Paper (open access): www.nature.com/articles/s41... 📢 Press release: www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late... Tread below 🧵👇
Photo showing a tall, jagged ice front of the Ronne Ice Shelf in West Antarctica rising above the calm surface of the Weddell Sea. Credit: Torsten Albrecht / PIK.
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RealClimate feed @realclimate.org · 09/02/2026
RealClimate: The Climate Science reference they don’t want Judges to read www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...
realclimate.org
RealClimate: The Climate Science reference they don’t want Judges to read
RealClimate: For the first time, the Federal Judicial Center (FJC) commissioned a chapter on climate science for the manual they put out (with the NASEM) for judges, the Reference on Scientific Eviden...
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James Bradley @drbradbrad.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
How do glaciers drive and interact with Earth's regional and global biogeochemical cycles? ❄️🏔️🦠🪨🌊🌎🧪⚒️ @natrevearthenviron.nature.com Expertly led by Jon Hawkings & many collaborators @mioceanologie.bsky.social @cnrs.fr @cnrs-dr12.bsky.social @cnrs-insu.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s43...
nature.com
Glacier biogeochemical cycling and downstream impacts - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
Far from frozen and sterile environments, glaciers are biogeochemical reactors and regulators. This Review outlines key biogeochemical and associated physical processes occurring in glacierized enviro...
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