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Julius Garbe

@juliusgarbe.github.io
5.3K followers 992 following 163 posts

Antarctica Director @iccinet.org | PhD candidate @pik-potsdam.bsky.social. #IceSheets, #SeaLevelRise, Earth System #Resilience & #TippingPoints. Focus on #AntarcticIceSheet stability. 🌐 juliusgarbe.github.io

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Reposted by Julius Garbe
The Guardian @theguardian.com · 22h
Antarctic winter sea ice falls to third-lowest level on record as scientists warn of ‘now problem’
theguardian.com
Antarctic winter sea ice falls to third-lowest level on record as scientists warn of ‘now problem’
Coverage levels fall a million square kilometres short of the long-term average, with global heating likely driving losses * Follow our Australia news live blog for latest updates * Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast Antarctica’s winter sea ice has peaked at its third-lowest level on record, falling a million square kilometres – or almost 400,000 square miles – short of the long-term average, scientists have confirmed. Confirmation of the peak meant the four lowest years on record for the continent’s sea ice – a vital component of the planet’s climate and critical for marine life – had all occurred in the past four years. Continue reading...
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Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 25/09/2026
NEW – ‘Concerning’ low sea ice persists as Antarctic hits third-lowest winter peak ✍️ By @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org 💬 With comments from Lettie Roach, Clare Eayrs and @zacklabe.com Read here ➡️ buff.ly/3Lcz5pj
buff.ly
‘Concerning’ low sea ice persists as Antarctic hits third-lowest winter peak - Carbon Brief
Antarctic sea ice has recorded its third-smallest winter peak extent since satellite records began 48 years ago, new data reveals.
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Prof. Anders Levermann, PhD @alevermann.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Two recent studies in PNAS show: 1) Fractures (which are not represented in current ice sheet models) can easily double the ice loss of a region 2) The fastest changing outlet in Antarctica, Pine Island Glacier, has lost almost all traction due to fractures ... www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...
pnas.org
Fracture-driven weakening amplifies projected ice loss from West Antarctica | PNAS
Ice shelves buttress the flow of the Antarctic ice sheet, but this stabilizing effect weakens as fractures form, reducing ice viscosity and acceler...
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World Weather Attribution @wwattribution.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
NEW: Climate change is influencing many of the likely drivers behind the devastating rock and ice collapse on the northern Nepalese border last month. 🧵👇(1/6)
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Gizmodo @gizmodo.com · 16/09/2026
Polar Ice Sheets Have Lost 11 Trillion Tons of Ice—and 'Speeding' Glaciers Are Driving the Loss gizmodo.com/polar-ice-sheets-have-l…
gizmodo.com
Polar Ice Sheets Have Lost 11 Trillion Tons of Ice—and 'Speeding' Glaciers Are Driving the Loss
New research suggests that Antarctica and Greenland have lost more than 11 trillion tons of ice since the 1970s, and the main driver isn't surface melting.
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James Kirkham @jdkirkham.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Greenland and Antarctica have lost over 11 trillion tonnes of ice since the 1970s, driving global sea level up by more than 3 cm! New paper from the IMBIE Group: www.nature.com/articles/s41... 🧪❄️
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Climate.us @climate.us · 09/09/2026
Sea Ice Today is back! For nearly two decades, scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, or NSIDC, have helped people understand what is happening to sea ice in the Arctic and around Antarctica. Its monthly science analyses were paused last fall. buff.ly/e20zCU6
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Dr Ella Gilbert @drgilbz.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Writing last week for @opendemocracy.net about the @unep.org report on overshoot. Our focus always has to be on cutting emissions. There's no way to get around that. www.opendemocracy.net/tech-bros-wi...
opendemocracy.net
Tech bros will tell you that geoengineering will save us, it won’t
As the latest UNEP reports we will blow past 1.5°C, we must prioritise solutions that work, rather than focusing on complex, unproven technologies
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Julius Garbe @juliusgarbe.github.io · 02/09/2026
Honored to have helped review this new, major @unep.org report on “Limiting #Overshoot”, released today! There are no good outcomes in overshooting 1.5°C. Therefore, any exceedance must be as small and short as possible to reduce risks of irreversible impacts, especially from the #cryosphere. ❄️🧊🌊🧪
Front cover of the new UNEP report “Limiting overshoot: Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return”
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International Cryosphere Climate Initiative @iccinet.org · 02/09/2026
@unep.org report on Limiting Overshoot: There are no good outcomes in overshooting and remaining above 1.5°C We need rapid near-term action to limit overshoot magnitude and duration and the damage it will cause for people and the Earth – including the cryosphere www.unep.org/resources/li... ❄️🧪🌊
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Future Earth @futureearth.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
What can climate models tell us about tipping points and where do uncertainties remain? Join researchers to explore how Earth system modelling can help us understand tipping point risks, including new multi-model results. 🗓 Wed Sept 9 ⏰ 16-17:30 CEST 🔗 futureearth.confetti.events/climate-mode...
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PIK_climate @pik-potsdam.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
OUT NOW! Part 4 of our video series “Core research topics of PIK”: @rahmstorf.bsky.social explains how #ClimateChange is putting the very important Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation #AMOC at risk, and what this could mean for Europe and the world. 👇 youtu.be/sNOSCWxrc3Q
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Copernicus ECMWF @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
The daily global average sea surface temperature has reached its highest level on record. On 22 August 2026, data from the #CopernicusClimate showed 21.1°C, exceeding the previous record set in March 2024. 🔗Read the press release: climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-d... @ecmwf.int ⬇️
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Matt King @deformedearth.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Interesting work out today in @nature.com on the origins of recent increased snowfall in Antarctica, tracing it to the tropical warm pool. It's amazing how connected our earth system is. 1/2 www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
The Antarctic ice sheet has gained mass — but probably not for long
Since 2020, snowfall has largely counterbalanced the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet. The atmospheric effect that causes this has been identified — and it’s temporary.
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Alaa Al Khourdajie @dralaaclimate.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
New publication in Environmental Research Letters: overshooting 1.5°C then cooling back down does not undo the damage. We map where, for whom, and through what mechanisms temporary overshoot becomes permanent loss. Paper (OA): iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... 1/12
"Three stacked panels sharing a time axis. Top: global temperature rises past 1.5°C, peaks, then declines (the overshoot pathway), with a flat permanent-exceedance line at the peak for comparison. Middle: biophysical responses to the same trajectory diverge; some track temperature down, some recover with a lag, one keeps intensifying. Bottom: socioeconomic impacts of the same biophysical change diverge by adaptive capacity; high-capacity systems recover, while one crosses a dashed adaptive-capacity threshold and never recovers: the permanent overshoot legacy.
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International Cryosphere Climate Initiative @iccinet.org · 12/08/2026
📣Announcement: ICCI are happy to announce that applications for #COP31 Cryosphere Pavilion side events and early career scientist volunteers are now open! More information: iccinet.org/cop31-cryosp... The deadline for applications is Monday, August 31. We hope to see many of you in Antalya!
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UN Environment Programme @unep.org · 03/08/2026
The average surface temperature is currently about 1.2°C above the 1850-1900 average. Every fraction of a degree of warming matters. Here is why it is so important not to exceed 1.5°C. United Nations explains: www.un.org/en/climatechange/science…
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Prof. Anders Levermann, PhD @alevermann.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
I think we, climate physicists, have overlooked something with respect to climatic instabilities... their effect on weather variability... I believe this will be the main problem for our society and economy for the next three generations to come... at least... www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
‘Climate free fall’: why the biggest risk to our economies is yet to be recognized
Increasing instability of the ocean, ice and atmosphere threatens farming, finance and society. We all need to wake up to that fact.
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Science Magazine @science.org · 09/07/2026
The formation of Antarctica's vast East Antarctic Ice Sheet may have been driven not only by falling atmospheric carbon dioxide but also by the slow uplift of the continent itself, according to a new study in Science. Learn more: scim.ag/4wu7ga4
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PIK_climate @pik-potsdam.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
40.4C: on June 27, 2026, the highest temperature since measurements began in 1893 was recorded at the Potsdam Telegrafenberg where PIK is based. The measurement series serves as an important reference point for assessing climate development in the region. Annual max temperature (2026 as of 9 July).
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ClimTip | Climate Tipping Points in the Earth System @climtip.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
What'd happen if we managed to limit global warming to around 2°C—but the AMOC still underwent a major weakening? Join us today bit.ly/climtip-webi... with @froeltho.bsky.social on impacts of #AMOC collapse under 2°C scenario! 📅 7 July, 2–3pm CEST #ClimateScience #ClimTip @unibe.ch #TippingPoints
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PIK_climate @pik-potsdam.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Tipping points in the Earth system are becoming a global challenge: a UN brief, based on PIK research, highlights growing risks to ice sheets, coral reefs and the Amazon. www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
pik-potsdam.de
New UN brief highlights governance challenge of Earth system tipping points
24.06.2026 - A new science brief by the UN Secretary-General’s Scientific Advisory Board highlights Earth system tipping points as a unique global governance challenge. The brief, produced in partners...
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Carl Schleussner @carlschleussner.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Absolutely thrilled that the Overshoot Conference is going into its second round. This year at @tsinghuauniversity.bsky.social. Call for abstract out now - hope to welcome many familiar and new faces.
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Dr Earhart Sampson PhD 🌎 🇨🇦 🇺🇲 🇲🇽 🇩🇰 🇺🇦 @earhart.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
Scientists say the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could collapse with very little additional warming and the four metres of sea level rise that would follow cannot be stopped once it begins share.google/MXR49QHhfmOi...
share.google
Scientists say the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could collapse with very little additional warming and the four metres of sea level rise that would follow cannot be stopped once it begins
A modelling study published in Communications Earth & Environment in June 2025 found that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could begin an irreversible collapse at ocean temperatures between zero and 0.25°...
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The Guardian @theguardian.com · 12/06/2026
Antarctica’s west coast missing an area of sea ice the size of France as temperatures peak 20C above average
theguardian.com
Antarctica’s west coast missing an area of sea ice the size of France as temperatures peak 20C above average
Exclusive A vast area of the Bellingshausen Sea should be covered by sea ice by now, with one expert calling the loss of ice ‘depressing’ * Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast Antarctica’s west coast is missing an area of winter sea ice the size of France, sparking concerns for threatened penguins other marine life and global sea levels. One expert said the loss of ice in the Bellingshausen Sea was “depressing” and the failure of ice to form could have intensified a heatwave over the continent’s peninsular last week that saw daytime temperatures peak at 15.4C which is more than 20C above average. Continue reading...
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Norman J. Steinert @njsteinert.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Many climate models omit the permafrost carbon–climate feedback. In this new paper we show that inlcuding it can increase Earth system tipping risks, especially in overshoot scenarios with peak temperatures below 3°C or peak cumulative emissions of below 2000 PgC. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
iopscience.iop.org
Permafrost carbon–climate feedback amplifies Earth system tipping risks
Permafrost carbon–climate feedback amplifies Earth system tipping risks, Steinert, Norman J, Munday, Gregory, Sandstad, Marit, Sanderson, Benjamin M, Wunderling, Nico
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Julius Garbe @juliusgarbe.github.io · 11/06/2026
The latest update of the Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) report shows 2025 among warmest years on record with 1.39°C above preindustrial. Human-caused global warming is now expected to exceed 1.5°C threshold by around 2030 🌍🌡️ More details here: climatechangetracker.org/climate-chan...
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Julius Garbe @juliusgarbe.github.io · 11/06/2026
The latest update of the Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) report shows 2025 among warmest years on record with 1.39°C above preindustrial. Human-caused global warming is now expected to exceed 1.5°C threshold by around 2030 🌍🌡️ More details here: climatechangetracker.org/climate-chan...
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PIK_climate @pik-potsdam.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
🆕 The Earth is accumulating heat at an accelerating rate. Human-caused warming reached 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels in 2025 & is expected to exceed 1.5°C within ~4 years. PIKs @wflamb.bsky.social led the report’s assessment of global greenhouse gas emissions. www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
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Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
📣 Just out: our new study on the 'cold blob' in the Northern Atlantic. Is that due to ocean currents bringing less heat there, or due to more heat being lost through the sea surface? Our data analysis strongly suggests it's due to #AMOC slowing. 🌊 agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
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ClimTip | Climate Tipping Points in the Earth System @climtip.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Polar ice – 100Ks years of climate history. Changed in a few human lifetimes? As we heat the planet, ice sheets are pushed to melt irreversibly. But it gets trickier @ricarda-winkelmann.bsky.social talks 3 types of tipping in #Greenland & #Antarctica Join 5 May 2-3PM CEST ‼️ bit.ly/climtip-webi...
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International Cryosphere Climate Initiative @iccinet.org · 01/05/2026
57 countries gathered in Santa Marta for the first-ever conference dedicated to transitioning away from fossil fuels, and here are three key takeaways from the closing plenary 🧵
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The Conversation UK @uk.theconversation.com · 24/04/2026
If all glaciers melt, sea level will rise by about 24cm. If the polar ice sheets melt, sea level will rise by more than 65m; almost 300 times more.
theconversation.com
Why delaying climate action now means higher seas by 2100 – new research
If all glaciers melt, sea level will rise by about 24cm. If the polar ice sheets melt, sea level will rise by more than 65m; almost 300 times more.
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Cecilia Keating @ceciliakeating.carbonbrief.org · 24/04/2026
NEW: How is climate change impacting the AMOC, the Atlantic currents that help keep Europe warm? @carbonbrief.org’s new in-depth explainer covers: 🌊 How the AMOC is impacted by warming 🌎 What research says about AMOC collapse 🗞️ How the media covers AMOC Read more here: tinyurl.com/5caxbw5a
tinyurl.com
AMOC: Is global warming tipping key Atlantic ocean currents towards ‘collapse’?
The AMOC is under threat from human-caused climate change, as warming seas, melting ice and increased rainfall upset the temperature and salt balance of the North Atlantic.
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International Cryosphere Climate Initiative @iccinet.org · 22/04/2026
Happy #EarthDay! 🌍 Today we are launching a white paper on Barriers to Glaciers-Related Financing. As temperatures continue to rise, finance will be needed to respond to the impact of glacier loss on mountain 🗻 and water 🧊 ecosystems. iccinet.org/glacier-fina...
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Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Breaking: New study using observational constraints projects that the Atlantic Ocean circulation #AMOC will weaken ~50% by 2100, even for medium emissions and without Greenland melting. 🌊 More realistic models means stronger weakening - not entirely unexpected. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Science | AAAS
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 26/03/2026
🚨 It’s official: 2026 had the lowest annual maximum Arctic sea ice extent on record - essentially tied with last year’s record low. Climate change is reshaping the Arctic, and it's all throughout the year. For more information from @nsidc.bsky.social: nsidc.org/news-analyse...
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NSIDC @nsidc.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Arctic sea ice has reached its maximum extent for the year, at 14.29 million square kilometers (5.52 million square miles) on March 15, edging just below last year’s record and statistically tying for the lowest maximum in the 48-year satellite record. @cires.colorado.edu bit.ly/4sBUe95
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Mother Jones @motherjones.com · 24/03/2026
The point of no return: New evidence shows Antarctic melting is already locked in
motherjones.com
The point of no return: New evidence shows Antarctic melting is already locked in
Southern Florida could be underwater within centuries. A rare geological record from beneath the Ross Ice Shelf confirms the grim forecast.
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New Scientist @newscientist.com · 23/03/2026
Since 2016, Antarctic sea ice extent has been declining sharply – now scientists are piecing together how strong winds and warm deep water have played a part in this abrupt transition
newscientist.com
Warmer ocean is driving the Antarctic sea ice 'regime shift'
Since 2016, Antarctic sea ice extent has been declining sharply – now scientists are piecing together how strong winds and warm deep water have played a part in this abrupt transition
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World Meteorological Organization @wmo-global.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
The last 11 years have been the hottest years ever recorded. Earth’s energy imbalance has reached its highest than at any time in observed history, with heat reaching deeper into the ocean. This is the Global #StateOfClimate 2025. 📰 Press release: bit.ly/4ds4r2V #WorldMetDay
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Julius Garbe @juliusgarbe.github.io · 21/03/2026
Great summary of our new study about the tipping points of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and related sea-level impacts in this new video by @drgilbz.bsky.social! Give it a watch! 📄 Link to the paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41... #WorldGlaciersDay 🏔️🧊❄️
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UN Environment Programme @unep.org · 20/03/2026
Glaciers and ice sheets cover approximately 10% of Earth's land area, yet their influence stretches far beyond their frozen borders, shaping life across the entire planet. This #GlaciersDay, discover why glaciers matter for people and nature: ow.ly/qYuE50YwHhW
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Climate Analytics @climateanalytics.org · 16/03/2026
New EU Scientific Advisory Board report calls on EU to prepare for 2.8–3.3°C of warming by 2100. But this level of warming is not baked in. New blog outlines why we also need to plan for lower warming, including #overshoot of the 1.5°C limit, in #adaptation planning.
climateanalytics.org
Adaptation planning must include 1.5°C overshoot scenarios
Adaptation planning should include the impacts that can be avoided by high mitigation ambition – including which impacts are reversible from overshooting the 1.5°C limit and which are irreversible. Th...
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OCEAN ICE @oceaniceeu.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
🆕OCEAN ICE Publication: Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming. Torsten Albrecht a WP6 Co-lead in OCEAN ICE, is Co-Author on this paper! Read an article summarising the paper here: ocean-ice.eu/ocean-i...
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Garry Peterson @resiliencesci.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming Winkelmann+ doi.org/10.1038/s415... "A first threshold, potentially as low as 1–2 °C above pre-industrial levels, triggers the long-term collapse of ~40% of marine ice volume in West Antarctica"
Fig. 3: Critical temperature thresholds for Antarctic ice basins.
Bottom panel: burning embers show—for each of the 18 Antarctic ice basins—the percentage of long-term (equilibrium) sea-level relevant ice volume loss compared with the respective initial ice volume, at different levels of global warming (in °C above pre-industrial temperature levels, interpolated between full degrees). White diamonds mark the one-degree temperature interval of the strongest decline (ice loss per degree of warming, see also Fig. 2). In some basins, two critical temperatures yielding peak volume loss are found—this can be interpreted as the respective basin having two tipping points. Top panel: sea-level potential for each basin, given by the initial modelled sea-level relevant ice volume in metres sea-level equivalent.
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Julius Garbe @juliusgarbe.github.io · 06/03/2026
The world is getting hotter faster — its pace nearly doubled in the past decade www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
The world is getting hotter faster — its pace nearly doubled in the past decade
Earth is now warming at a rate of around 0.35 ºC per decade, fresh analysis finds.
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Julius Garbe @juliusgarbe.github.io · 06/03/2026
The world is getting hotter faster — its pace nearly doubled in the past decade www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
The world is getting hotter faster — its pace nearly doubled in the past decade
Earth is now warming at a rate of around 0.35 ºC per decade, fresh analysis finds.
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James Kirkham @jdkirkham.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Between 1992-2025, large areas of the grounding line of #Antarctic glaciers have retreated. The largest changes have occurred in W. Antarctica, where grounding lines have retreated 10-40+ km, driven by incursions of warm water masses along deep bathymetric troughs www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.... ❄️🧪🌊
pnas.org
Thirty years of glacier grounding line retreat in Antarctica | PNAS
The Grounding Line (GL)—the transition from ice grounded on the continent and ice afloat in the ocean—is a sensitive indicator of glacier stability...
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Nature Portfolio @natureportfolio.nature.com · 04/03/2026
The results of a study in Nature Climate Change imply that the Antarctic Ice Sheet does not act as one single tipping element, but rather as several tipping systems interacting across drainage basins. go.nature.com/4rFXQ9q 🧪
This is figure 1, which shows a risk map of Antarctic ice catchment basins.
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