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Kevin Anchukaitis

@thirstygecko.bsky.social
4.8K followers 755 following 666 posts

Climate scientist, paleoclimatologist, dendrochronologist, University of Arizona | kanchukaitis.github.io | Opinions are mine and not that of my employer

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Reposted by Kevin Anchukaitis
Dan Garisto @dangaristo.bsky.social · 6h
Good end-of-FY coverage by the Times. The amount of unspent funds has wiggled but it was pretty clear for some time now that NSF was simply not going to spend a substantial portion of its congressional appropriation this year.
nytimes.com
National Science Foundation Diverted $1.4 Billion in Science Funds Mandated by Congress
The move, affecting about one-fifth of the National Science Foundation’s primary research budget, is the latest sign of how the White House is asserting more control over grants.
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 8h
One nice thing about the AGU annual meeting is you can count on the website being borked at nearly every stage of the process. There are few things you can really rely on these days, so there is a certain comfort in that.
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Andrew Williams @andrewilwilliams.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Great paper in @aguadvances.bsky.social by Aaron Match & Ben Schaffer! They show that the excess costs of an extreme weather event exacerbated by climate change are 'inherently ambiguous', with important (& unappreciated) consequences for litigation agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
On the Inherent Ambiguity of Extreme Event Costs Attributed to Climate Change
Extreme event cost attribution is inherently ambiguous, because event alternatives can be viewed as changes in frequency or intensity Ambiguous single-event attributable costs can, in theory, be ...
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Dan Garisto @dangaristo.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
OMB's focus on NIH and NSF, which has confused a lot of folks, pretty much boils down to stopping money going to universities.
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
lol, watch this space: www.nsf.gov/funding/oppo...
nsf.gov
Unlocking Dataset Value for AI-Enabled Scientific Discovery (AI Datasets)
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Georgia Melodie Hole @gmelodie.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
A change of scenery for a couple of months! 🌵 I’ve joined @uarizona.bsky.social’s Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research as an Agnese N. Haury Fellow, exploring Greenland junipers and what they reveal about Arctic climate variability. 🌲❄️ #Dendrochronology #Arctic #TreeRings
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Dr. Twila Moon @drtwilamoon.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
💡 Lesson: Match the scale of the climate information to your decision's scale. ❓ Don't just ask: “What does El Niño mean?” 🎯 Ask: “What does El Niño tell us at the scale and location relevant to the decision we're making, and what additional information do we need?”
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Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Heading to Arizona for a talk tomorrow - totally normal to give an insurance talk for a bunch of tree ringers right? Get ready for some hurricanes and wildfires and floods, oh my. outreach.ltrr.arizona.edu/tree-ring-ta... Thanks @thirstygecko.bsky.social for the invite!
Assessing climate impacts in current disaster risk
Or, insurers don't get to wait for 2100
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
A couple Pliny the Younger Triple IPAs from Russian River Brewing can definitely help with a tricky age model ... www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Pliny the Younger advances geochronology
The eruption of Vesuvius volcano witnessed by Pliny the Younger in 79 CE is dated by the argon-40/argon-39 (40Ar/39Ar) method to 1938 ± 13 years (SD) before measurement in 2025 CE. Achievement of 0.7%...
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Brian J. Enquist @bjenquist.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Please pass along: I’m recruiting PhD students to join our Macroecology Lab. We study physical ecology, macroecology, and biodiversity — spanning scaling, trait-based ecology, theory, comparative biology & ecoinformatics. Several avenues for funding. Please reach out if interested 🧪🌐🌾
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Greg Porter @gporterwx.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
I loved writing this story! California vineyards are experiencing one of their strangest weather years ever. And it's lead to record early harvests, lower crop yields, but a spike in quality. Now, El Niño is coming.
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
'the science of archaeology offers abundant evidence of anthropogenic planetary change over thousands of years ... Archaeology can and should play a central role in the science of global environmental change'
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Congratulations to all the awardees, especially new AGU Fellows John Chiang, @jfasullo.bsky.social, Gisela Winckler, and @climatedynamics.bsky.social !
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Brandon Bishop @brandontbishop.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
"Keivan Stassun, a member of the board that oversaw NSF before Trump ousted all its members in April, told Inside Higher Ed that 'fundamentally, what’s going on is the agency has been decapitated.'"
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Sigh. Goodbye Baja.
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
from @davebonan.bsky.social and Tapio Schneider: Estimating the maximum mean precipitation in hothouse climates journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org
Estimating the maximum mean precipitation in hothouse climates
Abstract Earth’s climate has experienced periods of extreme warmth known as hothouse climates. In these states, surface evaporation is almost entirely balanced by absorbed shortwave radiation. However...
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National Center for Disaster Preparedness, Columbia University @ncdp.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Across millennia, communities facing annual climate variability have created sustainable techniques and technological systems. The Climate Riskscapes conference explores how these practices can offer crucial lessons for climate resilience everywhere. tinyurl.com/climate-riskscapes #ClimateResilience
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
I appreciate the clear notes that my past self left for my present self
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The US EPA everyone! Emissions from power generation accounts for 25% to 30% of US GHG emissions. Models show that greenhouse gas emissions cause climate change. And, if all 'carbon dioxides' were indeed eliminated tomorrow, the Earth would rapidly turn into a snowball. www.epa.gov/newsreleases...
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Me trying to coax data from the Harvard Dataverse without tripping the rate limit
static.klipy.com
Kitten Headpats Duckling: Feel Better
ALT: Kitten Headpats Duckling: Feel Better
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Reposted by Kevin Anchukaitis
Caroline Juang @carospace.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Our paper is out! Juang et al. (2026): "Contribution of La-Niña-like Pacific Ocean trend in sea-surface temperatures to western US wildfire area, 1984-2022" We find the tropical Pacific east-west gradient was an important, but non-dominant, contributor to the rapid increases in #wildfire area.
Headline of the infographic reads PACIFIC OCEAN TEMPERATURES IMPACT WESTERN US FOREST FIRE. The image shows ocean temperatures around the globe with a focus on the warming west side of the tropical Pacific Ocean and cooling east side of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Also on the map is the United States with the data on the western US appearing to be burning like wildfire. Data is colored red in forests across the western US, signifying that the tropical Pacific Ocean contributed positive trends in forest area burned. 

The paper citation is: Juang, C.S., Williams, A.P., Seager, R. (2026). Contribution of La-Niña-like Pacific Ocean Trend in Sea Surface Temperatures to Western United States Wildfire Area, 1984 to 2022. Published in Earth's Future.
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Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 15/09/2026
Also in this issue.... In 1877-78, a severe El Niño event contributed to a devastating famine, killing tens of millions of people. As the world faces an El Niño event that is expected to be the strongest on record, Carbon Brief unpacks the similarities and differences between the two events.
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Jeffrey Mervis @policyhound.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
A deep dive into the memo that marks the end of how NSF has done business for 76 years www.science.org/content/arti...
science.org
NSF memo implementing Trump’s ‘golden age’ of science unsettles researchers
New document emphasizes support for White House priorities over curiosity-driven ideas
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Great to see so many familiar names here! Bravo, all you whippersnappers!
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences @pnas.org · 11/09/2026
A study using thousands of tree-ring sites around the world suggests that as the climate warms, more trees will experience growth constraints from dryness by 2100, limiting carbon sequestration. In PNAS: ow.ly/oI6k50ZMEbn
Douglas-fir, one of the studied tree species, shows growth suppression at both very high and very low vapor pressure deficits.
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Andy Hoberek @thathoberekguy.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
All of these things require well-compensated faculty with small enough teaching loads that they can devote considerable time to each class.
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Costa Samaras @costasamaras.com · 13/09/2026
This will be bad for: - the students - the research progress - the universities - the towns the universities are in - the companies hiring students - the states the universities are in - the national economy - national security - the country - the world
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 12/09/2026
The US President's new proposal to tax international students has been approved by the White House for release this week. It's an unprecedented $100,000 tax on int'l grads who stay to work after graduation on Optional Practical Training (most grads do), a crucial bridge to remaining by any channel.
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Changes in the Global Pattern and Magnitude of Summertime Heatwave Metrics Are Largely Explained by a Mean Shift agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/... '
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Changes in the Global Pattern and Magnitude of Summertime Heatwave Metrics Are Largely Explained by a Mean Shift
Spatial patterns of change in common heatwave metrics are largely explained by a mean shift of the daily maximum temperature distribution For a given mean shift, smaller climatological variance a...
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences @pnas.org · 11/09/2026
One of the most-viewed PNAS articles in the last week is “Recent high-severity wildfires in a dry-conifer landscape are unprecedented over five centuries and foretell future forest loss.” Read now: ow.ly/v1oR50ZM4BE For more trending articles, visit ow.ly/pH5050ZM4Aj.
Dry-conifer forest loss from high-severity fires in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico (1995–2023). (A) Photograph of dry-conifer forest from St. Peter’s Dome Lookout, facing south. (B) Repeat photograph showing the near-complete conifer forest loss (mortality and lack of regeneration) following two high-severity fires (1996 Dome Fire and 2011 Las Conchas Fire).
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Alex Wild @alexwild.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Ultimately, this letter from NSF is an announcement that universities will be funded a lot less and politically-connected industry will be funded a lot more. Fancy words around old-fashioned corruption.
nsf.gov
NSF leadership in a new golden age of science
The U.S. National Science Foundation was established in 1950 to keep American discovery at the frontier. That mission has not changed. The science and technology ecosystem around it has...
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Growth rate overrides the benefit of extended growing season from boreal to semiarid conifers www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Growth rate overrides the benefit of extended growing season from boreal to semiarid conifers
Climate warming lengthens the productive season in extratropical forests. Yet there is inconclusive evidence on whether this in turn elicits enhanced tree growth and forest carbon sequestration. In th...
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
The latest and greatest on radiocarbon and cosmic radiation events (arising from last May's Theo Murphy meeting) in the new issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society: royalsocietypublishing.org/rsta/issue/3...
royalsocietypublishing.org
Volume 384 Issue 2329 | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A | The Royal Society
Influential themed journal issues across the physical mathematical and engineering sciences.
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Projected amplification of global warming by warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions '[Warming-induced emissions] could add 0.2 °C–0.4 °C of warming by 2100' iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
iopscience.iop.org
Projected amplification of global warming by warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions
Projected amplification of global warming by warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions, Abernethy, Sam, Monteverde, Danielle, Schädel, Christina, Buma, Brian, Duffy, Philip B, Jackson, Robert B, Natali, Susan M, Ocko, Ilissa, Rogers, Brendan M, Poulter, Benjamin
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Alex Robel @iceclimate.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Excited that our new paper is out @pnas.org! We show that the observed increase in variability of yearly Greenland ice melt over recent decades is not evidence of ice sheet destabilization. Story in 🧵 www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
pnas.org
PNAS
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences @pnas.org · 05/09/2026
An analysis of tree-ring data from 1,200 fire-scarred trees suggests that the area of dry-conifer forest in New Mexico’s Jemez Mountains could be halved by 2055—a loss caused by mismanagement and wildfires made more destructive by climate change. In PNAS: ow.ly/GWrW50ZJsWv
A tree-ring fire scar under a microscope.
CREDIT: Andreas Wion.
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Robert Simmon @rsimmon.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
I am having a particularly frustrating week, so here’s one of the best things I’ve ever done. The eruption of Sarychev Peak in the Aleutian Islands, seen by the crew of the space station. www.nasa.gov/image-articl...
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
You know you’re really in administration when your name badge arrives in Year 2 to wear to all the administration meetings
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Last year, I publicly complained multiple times (see e.g. elevanth.org/blog/2025/07...) that the open access movement had been captured by publishers, and we are now worse off than before open access. Well people got mad at me for saying it. But I think things are still getting worse.
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Henri F. Drake @henrifdrake.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
I have an opening for a two-year postdoc at UC Irvine on modeling of Antarctic ice-ocean interactions in new configurations of CESM3 with dynamic ice sheets! Please share here and with anyone in your networks who may be interested! recruit.ap.uci.edu/JPF10422
recruit.ap.uci.edu
Postdoctoral Scholar - Synchronous Ice Sheet-Earth System Modeling
University of California, Irvine is hiring. Apply now!
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Recent high-severity wildfires in a dry-conifer landscape are unprecedented over five centuries and foretell future forest loss www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
pnas.org
Recent high-severity wildfires in a dry-conifer landscape are unprecedented over five centuries and foretell future forest loss | PNAS
Dry forests of the western United States evolved with frequent, spatially extensive, low-severity fires, followed by a century of fire exclusion. R...
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Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution @whoi.edu · 01/09/2026
🧑‍🔬 Searching for the perfect post-doc? Broaden your horizons at WHOI while advancing knowledge of our ocean planet! 📲 Find out more and apply by Oct.15: go.whoi.edu/pdscholarship
A smiling woman in a bright yellow long-sleeve shirt, black shorts, and sunglasses stands on the deck of a boat at sea. She holds up a small, orange and pink scientific research tagging device with antennas in her right hand. Behind her, fishing rods are mounted on the boat's railing, and blue water extends to the horizon under a clear sky. Blue plastic barrels sit on the deck to her left. Large white text overlaid across the bottom of the image reads "Postdoctoral Scholarships at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution."
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
'Indices beguile. They take something messy and incomprehensible like the climate and reduce it to a one dimensional problem ... But, an index can’t capture the full range of behaviour which is generally messy and incomprehensible because the whole idea of indices is reductive.'
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
"Observed ENSO amplitude, period, and asymmetry trends since 1955 are unlikely but cannot be ruled out under internal variability alone" agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Detectability of Forced ENSO Changes Under Global Warming: Insights From the Recharge Oscillator
Recharge Oscillator (RO) perfect-model experiments test whether slow, forced changes can be detected from finite ENSO time series Observed ENSO amplitude, period, and asymmetry trends since 1955 ...
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Sammy Roth @sammyroth.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Thank you @landdesk.bsky.social for explaining the many ways that Matt Yglesias doesn't know jack shit about Western water. www.landdesk.org/p/on-simple-...
landdesk.org
On “simple solutions” to the Western water problem
Spoiler: There’s no such thing
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Matt Luongo @luongomatt.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Hiatus v2?? Check it out! Our recent work, led by Shang-Ping Xie & Ayumu Miyamoto, suggests that internal variability has strongly influenced satellite-era (~1980-present) tropical Pacific SST trends. www.pnas.org/doi/full/10....
pnas.org
PNAS
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
In 2020, Bethany Coulthard and @scottstgeorge.paleohydrology.com wrote an important article about why sampling strategies for dendroclimatology can limit ecological inference when using data archived in the ITRDB, 'The limits of freely-available tree-ring chronologies' doi.org/10.1016/j.qu...
doi.org
Redirecting
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Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Another case for the ‘academic freedom’ crowd to champion…? gothamist.com/news/west-po...
gothamist.com
West Point professor says he was pushed out for objecting to climate directive
A lawsuit alleges West Point ordered faculty to stop teaching that humans cause climate change, and pushed out one professor when he spoke up.
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Brandon Bishop @brandontbishop.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Was looking at Grant Witness and got to thinking... How does American geoscience survive *next* fiscal year given NSF's stated goals for the geoscience directorate and the collapse of other federal funding? What's left?
Plot from Grant Witness of the NSF geoscience directorate funding curves, modified with a marker to show the stated goal for funding in 2027. It's a greater than 75% cut.
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