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umsonst.bsky.social

@umsonst.bsky.social
1.9K followers 43 following 14K posts

Earth-System Nerd who follows from a mechanistic observational perspective the extinction level event we are just now triggering. Earth is unfortunately not a sluggish system changing slowly but a highly non-linear system which can change fast...

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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 3h
Found the source of how El Nino's behaved in the past: "Composites and cross-spectral analysis clearly show a westward migration of the eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomaly pattern from the South American coast into the central equatorial Pacific" This has now changed profoundly #climate #earth
doi.org
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 4h
Interesting mechanism for positive Indian Ocean Dipole events that is discussed: cyclones over the Bay of Bengal Would be just another indication that single or a series of extreme events can develop a global impact... #climate #Earth
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Triggering of the positive Indian Ocean dipole events by severe cyclones over the Bay of Bengal
In this paper, we suggest that positive Indian Ocean dipole events could be triggered by the occurrence of severe cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during April–May. All positive Indian Ocean dipole ev....
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 4h
Oops! Thing is it's a forced reaction not natural variability "we find that an event of this magnitude is approximately six times more likely in the current climate. The 2026/27 forecast exemplifies how climate change is already altering the rarity and intensity of extreme El Niño events" #climate
eartharxiv.org
Climate change has intensified exceptional El Niño events like the 2026/27 forecast
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
And here we go again: Valencia has experienced several damaging floods in recent years. Catalonia has now put three towns under lockdown and Valencia has shut schools for nearly half a million children. #climate #earth
theguardian.com
Eastern Spain braces for torrential rain and flooding
Up to 300mm of rain could fall in places, while extreme downpours bring landslides and deaths in Nepal
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
In 2024 we reached about 1°C of sea surface warming since industrialization, and now we are again some 0.2°C higher closing in on 1.5 °C It's a vicious cycle between the upper ocean and atmosphere driven by ocean heat uptake and stratification triggering a MHW driven cloud feedback #climate #earth
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Reposted by @umsonst.bsky.social
Extreme Temperatures Around the World @extremetemps.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
ABSOLUTE INSANITY GOING ON IN MIDDLE EAST Night Minimums up to 33C, world heat records for October smashed and re/smashed. And guess what ..it will get MUCH worse WEEKS of July-weather with Mins 30/35C and maxes >45C. BY FAR; THE MOST HEAT EXTREME EVENT THE WORLD HAS EVER SEEN
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Extreme events intensifying fast are now increasingly driving Earth system changes An example of an Antarctic polynya opening up in the sea ice in August 2024 driven by 6 consecutive atmospheric rivers Bham, bham, bham and another system falls will be the future - fast and abrupt! #climate #earth
doi.org
Unprecedented Open‐Ocean Polynya in Breid Bay, East Antarctica in Winter 2024
An unprecedented winter open-ocean polynya developed in the Breid Bay on 4 August 2024, attaining a maximum extent of 89,121 km2 Six intense atmospheric rivers with anomalous poleward heat and mo...
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Also a striking example... #climate #earth
reuters.com
Plankton bloom turns Thai island waters a bright, smelly green
Heavy rains ‌and floods helped spark a plankton bloom that kept some swimmers on shore in the popular ​tourist island of Ko Lan.
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Found another contributor to the recent weakening of the Planck Feedback: higher tropical SSTs above 27°C... Intensifying tropical convection, suppressing outgoing longwave radiation above the systems, expanding cirrus clouds and in the wider area by increasing water vapor... #climate #earth
journals.ametsoc.org
Observed Relationships between Sea Surface Temperature, Vertical Wind Shear, Tropical Organized Deep Convection, and Radiative Effects
Abstract Organized deep convective activity has been routinely monitored by satellite precipitation radar from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Mission (GPM). Or...
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Slowly the come: studies on the sudden intensification of extremes we had the last years... "The role of global warming trend and tropical interannual variability as drivers of South America’s 2022–2024 climate extremes"; link.springer.com/article/10.1... #climate #earth
link.springer.com
The role of global warming trend and tropical interannual variability as drivers of South America’s 2022–2024 climate extremes - Climate Dynamics
From 2022 to 2024, South America experienced unprecedented regional climate extremes with severe socioeconomic impacts. These included extreme anomalies in temperature and precipitation, causing extre...
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Permafrost soils warm fast in Alaska Warming does not slow down to 1.2 m depth In winter 2-3°C pet decade - just WOW... #climate #earth
frontiersin.org
Frontiers | Significant soil warming across Alaska permafrost and non-permafrost regions from 1997 to 2023
IntroductionAir temperatures in Alaska are increasing at twice the rate of the contiguous United States. Soil temperatures have been shown to be increasing a...
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Another amplification that we overlooked And while stratospheric flows become faster they feed back stronger onto the troposphere and reinforce/weaken convection and high pressure systems depending on the phase and the effected region and season Get's messy in the Earth system... #climate #earth
lnkd.in
Quasi-biennial Oscillation of the Stratosphere | Jan Umsonst
The “quasi-biennial oscillation” (QBO) over the tropics is projected to speed up It's a band of air currents that flow around the equator in the stratosphere which reverse their direction every ~24 m...
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Here the results come in of this massive moisture inflow from the Gulf of Mexico I posted about this morning... www.youtube.com/watch?v=YG6I...
youtube.com
Torrential Downpours Trigger Flash Flooding Across Multiple States
YouTube video by TODAY
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Main problem: "In low-and mid-latitude oceans, the long-term strengthening of stratification is more pronounced in the upper 200m than in deeper layers, primarily driven by thermal changes" The upper oceans decouple ever faster from the deeper oceans Just in 2025 24Zj heat uptake #climate #earth
link.springer.com
Representation of the upper ocean stratification changes in different observational datasets - Climate Dynamics
Ocean stratification changes impact Earth’s energy and water cycles and ocean ecosystems, but the robustness of its changes has not been fully evaluated. This study compares seven widely-used observat...
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Next result that we trigger a runaway warming just by GHG feedbacks: "we estimate that emissions have increased by approximately 2.8 (2.3–3.5; 90% CI) Pg CO2-eq. yr−1 since the Industrial Revolution, equivalent to an offset of approximately one-third of the land carbon sink." #climate #earth
nature.com
Importance, drivers and trends of inland water greenhouse gas emissions - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
This Review provides a detailed summary of global CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O emissions from inland waters. The authors map emission hot spots, assess anthropogenic drivers and historical increases, evaluate con...
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Maybe we see here a record breaking event in the making... Currently, massive moisture inflows into the central US... #climate #earth
pbs.org
Tropical Pacific moisture drenches central U.S. as another Pacific hurricane forms
Tropical weather that surged onshore from the Pacific soaked more of the U.S. on Wednesday while forecasters announced yet another hurricane off the coast of Mexico.
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Moisture inflow into the US even strengthened more... Impressive over which large distances systems work together and join forces to channel moisture into the US - tropical moisture levels even reached the Great Lakes region... #climate #earth
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Here we have 25 cm contribution to sea level rise from Antarctica in a high emission scenario till 2100... Will be interesting how much it will really be... #climate #earth
nature.com
Committed Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss by the end of the twenty-first century - Nature Geoscience
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is committed to mass loss by 2100, with higher greenhouse gas emissions increasing its contribution to sea-level rise according to observation-constrained projections. Emission...
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Sam Carana @samcarana.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Record high sea surface temperature of 29.85°C in Niño 3.4 region on Sep 29, 2026, an anomaly of +3.28°C from 1982-2010 and highest anomaly on record. Map (inset bottom) shows SSTA on September 29, 2026, around the globe, with the Niño 3.4 region highlighted. arctic-news.blogspot.com/2026/09/will...
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Paul Beckwith always has highly interesting stuff. To understand the current state of the Earth system one has to go broad otherwise no chance... www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSD0... #climate #earth
youtube.com
Armchair Chat -- The Most Important Climate Science over the Past Few Weeks: Plus Some Fun Humor
YouTube video by Paul Beckwith
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Slowly the studies come in that extreme precipitation increases faster than previously modeled #climate #earth

"Growing evidence suggests that extreme precipitation increases over most regions globally as the climate warms. However, it remains poorly understood how the fraction of annual precipitation from extreme events changes due to warming-induced alteration of both annual and extreme precipitation patterns. Understanding such changes is crucial for water resources and agricultural planning and management. Here, we propose the Extreme Precipitation Dependency Index (EPDI), a robust metric to quantify the relative contribution of extreme precipitation to annual totals under a warming climate. Using both climate model projections and observational data sets, we find that EPDI increases considerably beyond the UN's mitigation targets, with many global land regions experiencing a 15%–20% rise at 4°C warming. Hotspots include the African Sahel, Southeast Asia, Northern Australia, and the Amazon. Observations reveal that many regions are already experiencing increases in extreme precipitation contributions at rates exceeding model projections. We further explore the implications of these trends on rain-fed agriculture, reservoir operations, and ecosystem health. Our analysis indicates that 54%–96% of global rain-fed croplands may be adversely affected, alongside significant risks to boreal forests."
This paragraph is on overall precipitation increases and by what it is constrained:

"Increased Dependency on Extreme Precipitation in a Warmer Climate"; https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025WR042627
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Next massive underestimation: tropical precipitation switching into an oscillatory deluge mode way faster Instead of 15-25 °C it's happening under 5-10 °C of warmer sea surfaces - every ten to 20 days heaven comes down Bet will still be an underestimation... #climate #earth
science.org
Periodic extreme rainfall in a warmer climate due to stronger convectively coupled waves
There will be periodic extreme rainfall in a warmer climate due to stronger atmospheric waves.
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The Antarctic sea ice signal is likely part of the feedback synchronization during this El Nino Extreme tropical convection producing poleward propagating rossby waves passed on and strengthened by winter storms Signal should now reverse into the northern hemisphere #climate #earth
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Let's see if this connection will really weaken in a warmer climate Also important for marine heatwaves... "Currently, stronger South Asian monsoon heating tends to generate stronger subsidence and thus less summer rainfall over Mediterranean land." #climate #earth
phys.org
Warming weakens Asian monsoon's reach into the Mediterranean
The South Asian summer monsoon has long been known to shape the Mediterranean climate thousands of kilometers away as part of a phenomenon known as the "monsoon–desert" mechanism. Through this mechani...
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
It's the air we breathe, so fuck it... "According to CAMS analysis, 40% of the world’s population was exposed to extremely high levels of ozone pollution during 2026" #climate #earth
atmosphere.copernicus.eu
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Nature Reviews Earth & Environment @natrevearthenviron.nature.com · 30/09/2026
New online! Dynamic instability of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin Ice Sheet, East Antarctica
dlvr.it
Dynamic instability of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin Ice Sheet, East Antarctica
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Published online: 30 September 2026; doi:10.1038/s43017-026-00827-6The Wilkes Subglacial Basin is a marine-based sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that is vulnerable to ocean-forced melting and climate warming. This Review assesses changes in ice-sheet extent in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin under past and projected warming and notes large uncertainties in temperature-related and climate-related thresholds for its major retreat.
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Nature Reviews Earth & Environment @natrevearthenviron.nature.com · 04/09/2026
New online! Fluxes and imbalances in the modern global nitrogen cycle
dlvr.it
Fluxes and imbalances in the modern global nitrogen cycle
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Published online: 04 September 2026; doi:10.1038/s43017-026-00821-ySynthetic fertilizer use has perturbed the global nitrogen cycle by increasing reactive nitrogen inputs to terrestrial systems. This Review synthesizes estimates of global nitrogen pools and fluxes since 1955, assessing flux imbalances and identifying research and policy priorities to rebalance the global nitrogen cycle.
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Reposted by @umsonst.bsky.social
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment @natrevearthenviron.nature.com · 02/09/2026
New online! Changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice properties and processes
dlvr.it
Changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice properties and processes
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Published online: 02 September 2026; doi:10.1038/s43017-026-00816-9Sea ice modulates the energy exchange between the atmosphere and ocean through complex, time-varying processes. This Review describes changes in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice properties and processes, discusses the future sea-ice environment and provides recommendations to improve understanding of sea ice and its role in Earth’s changing climate.
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Reposted by @umsonst.bsky.social
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment @natrevearthenviron.nature.com · 10/07/2026
New online! Heterotrophic respiration by soil microbes in a changing climate
dlvr.it
Heterotrophic respiration by soil microbes in a changing climate
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Published online: 10 July 2026; doi:10.1038/s43017-026-00806-xMicrobial metabolism affects the magnitude and stability of soil organic carbon. This Review examines how microbial heterotrophic respiration and soil carbon stocks will be affected by climate change and describes potential strategies to mitigate soil carbon loss.
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Nature Reviews Earth & Environment @natrevearthenviron.nature.com · 17/06/2026
New online! Past, present and future Greenland Ice Sheet surface melt, 1500–2200 CE
dlvr.it
Past, present and future Greenland Ice Sheet surface melt, 1500–2200 CE
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Published online: 17 June 2026; doi:10.1038/s43017-026-00800-3Greenland Ice Sheet melt has intensified since the 1990s with implications for sea-level rise. This Review synthesises paleoclimate records, observations and regional climate melt model simulations to explore the patterns and drivers of melt variability and extremes, and assess uncertainties in future projections.
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Nature Reviews Earth & Environment @natrevearthenviron.nature.com · 03/06/2026
New online! Compound weather and climate events in 2025
dlvr.it
Compound weather and climate events in 2025
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Published online: 03 June 2026; doi:10.1038/s43017-026-00797-9Compound weather and climate events in 2025
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Nature Reviews Earth & Environment @natrevearthenviron.nature.com · 01/06/2026
New online! Deoxygenation in inland freshwater systems
dlvr.it
Deoxygenation in inland freshwater systems
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Published online: 01 June 2026; doi:10.1038/s43017-026-00795-xWidespread declines in dissolved oxygen concentrations in lakes and rivers have ecological and socioeconomic consequences. This Review highlights spatial and temporal trends, climate and anthropogenic drivers, impacts and strategies for the management and mitigation of inland freshwater deoxygenation.
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Nature Reviews Earth & Environment @natrevearthenviron.nature.com · 26/05/2026
New online! Precipitation extremes in 2025
dlvr.it
Precipitation extremes in 2025
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Published online: 26 May 2026; doi:10.1038/s43017-026-00794-yExtreme rainfall events in 2025 were globally associated with exceptional short-duration intensities consistent with hydrological intensification in a warming climate. A total of 46 events were considered, including 18 tropical cyclones and 10 convective storms, producing widespread flooding, economic losses and substantial societal impacts.
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
A new video of @paulhbeckwith.bsky.social #climate #earth
youtube.com
Dust in the Wind: Less than Before
YouTube video by Paul Beckwith
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
It's just a simple model result so not too important But confirms what already is happening: vertical mixing of the oceans will be suppressed by stratification driven by upper ocean warming Ocean heat will become the main feedback Signal gets visible now... #climate #earth
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
“Young Get Older, But Old Get Younger”: Warming‐Induced Circulation Change Explains Contrasting Pattern of Projected Pacific Deoxygenation
Strong warming drives age increase and O2 loss in the subtropical North Pacific but age decrease and weak O2 change in the tropical Pacific Increased stratification in the Pacific basin shoals su...
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
It's also a feedback as the North Pacific accumulates fast heat over the first 300m - latent heat release... “In the El Niño winters in the northern Pacific, we tend to have a lot of storminess, we tend to have more storms and big storm waves in the ocean than we typically do. #climate #earth
theguardian.com
Concern mounts over slow-moving, planetary-scale ‘Kelvin’ wave heading for California
The ocean phenomenon could raise sea levels by up to a foot as El Niño keeps warm water trapped along the coast
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Another on continental drying... It's also a feedback driving warming acceleration via reducing cloud cover and evaporative cooling while driving the non-linear increase in large fire complexes #Earth #climate
nature.com
Global hydrological drought diverges from atmospheric drying - Nature Water
Atmospheric drought has tended towards drying in recent decades, but this signal is expressed unevenly in river flow. Observations from approximately 19,000 catchments show that hydrological drought r...
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
It's one side of floods - they do not stop in a warmer climate in some years and seasons... #climate #earth
japantimes.co.jp
Tokyo sets a new record with 34 straight days of rain
The rainy-day streak is the longest since the Japan Meteorological Agency began keeping records in 1886.
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
This meta control switching the terrestrial carbon sink into a source is one side of the same coin: both ends of hydrological extremes intensifying... Marine heatwaves intensifying both are at the center of the coin flipping ever faster with the net result of drying out continents #climate #earth
theconversation.com
Without water, forests lose their ability to absorb CO₂
To survive dry spells, trees stop the water-rich process of photosynthesis. When nature’s natural carbon capture machine grinds to a halt entire forests end up producing more CO₂ than they absorb.
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Israel algal bloom continues shutting down desalination plants... Greetings from an collapsing ocean developing a multi toxic microbial food web... #climate #earth
nbcnews.com
Massive algae bloom exposes fragility of Israel’s advanced water system
“We thought about a missile or a cyberattack, but we never thought about algae,” one analyst told NBC News.
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 28/09/2026
Trends in September temperatures over land areas for the last 50 years... note some of the regional hotspots in the darker red shading Data from www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/lan...
Global map showing surface air temperature trends for each September from 1976 to 2025. Only land areas are shown. Red shading is shown for warmer temperature trends, and blue shading is shown for colder temperature trends. Data is from NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI NOAAGlobalTempv6.0.0. The temperature trend scale is from -0.5°C/decade to +0.5°C/decade. Most all areas are warming.
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Disruptions increase fast while structural damages accumulate... E g. Vietnam saw last year a 1.7m flood followed by a 1.5m flood - local peak values #climate #earth
reuters.com
Thailand declares two-day civil service holiday due to floods
Thailand's cabinet ​on Sunday approved special holidays on ‌September 28 and 29 for civil servants in Bangkok and three surrounding provinces due to heavy ​rainfall.
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Phosphorus is key... Sadly, hydrological extremes, low oxygen values, and increased P recycling can keep aquatic systems trapped in a high toxic cyanobacteria state... #climate #earth
timesofindia.indiatimes.com
In 1969, scientists began fertilising Ontario's Lake 227 with nitrogen and phosphorus; they stopped adding nitrogen in 1990, but annual algal blooms continued for decades as phosphorus additions remai...
The Times of India brings the Latest & Top Breaking News on Politics and Current Affairs in India & around the World, Cricket, Sports, Business, Bollywood News and Entertainment, Science, Technology, ...
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
It's not just me who says it... "Fierce marine heatwaves were recorded globally in 2023 and 2024, and some researchers now believe they mark the start of a fundamental change with devastating consequences for life on Earth" Since many years visible #climate #earth
newscientist.com
Record marine heatwaves may signal a permanent shift in the oceans | New Scientist
Fierce marine heatwaves were recorded globally in 2023 and 2024, and some researchers now believe they mark the start of a fundamental change with devastating consequences for life on Earth
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Still persists... Also reduces low clouds in this region whis is seen as one reason for a weakening Planck feedback... #climate #earth www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
Showing the marine heatwave off California...
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Same shit... Just for the record: the non-linear intensification of marine heatwaves spreading over the global oceans will lay waste to the terrestrial biosphere... #climate #earth
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Unprecedented Marine Heatwave Significantly Exacerbated the Record‐Breaking 2023 East Asian Summer Heatwave
An unprecedented marine heatwave significantly exacerbated the record-breaking 2023 East Asian summer heatwave This amplification occurred through radiative effects of cloud and water vapor chang...
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
A standard outcome of marine heatwaves: they amplify extreme events... #climate #earth
egusphere.copernicus.org
EGUsphere - Marine heatwave amplifies extreme multi-hazards of extratropical cyclone Babet
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
On the global spread of marine heatwave s from a statistical perspective... #climate #earth
journals.ametsoc.org
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
This is important as weak winds emerge as a main global driver during the warm seasons and regions... E.g. tropics-wide warming in early 2024 for some months Here a weaker walker circulation had been a main reason... #climate #earth
nature.com
Mediterranean summer marine heatwaves triggered by weaker winds under subtropical ridges - Nature Geoscience
Reduced winds below subtropical ridges are a key factor in the initiation of summer marine heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea, according to a statistical analysis of large marine heatwave events.
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Marine heatwaves affected almost the entire ocean area of the South-West Pacific in 2025 #climate #earth
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