Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkJohn Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 25/11/2025This is wild! Seven-day-ahead weather forecasts in high-income countries are more accurate than one-day-ahead weather forecasts in low-income countries. 37324
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkJosh McCrain @joshmccrain.bsky.social · 18/11/2025new paper by Sean Westwood: With current technology, it is impossible to tell whether survey respondents are real or bots. Among other things, makes it easy for bad actors to manipulate outcomes. No good news here for the future of online-based survey research 38770390
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkMartin Fitzgerald @4hundredblows.bsky.social · 22/10/2025I haven’t seen corners this dangerous since I binge watched The Wire 0243
Reposted by Gabriel Steinsbekkchrnum @chrnum.bsky.social · 20/08/2025Hans Jørgen Lysglimt Snakker tydelig om rasehygiene der de andre vakler. Blir litt borte i debatten om skattetrykk, men ellers trygg og god. Det merkes at selvtilliten er på plass. Svarer godt for seg på spørsmål om jødeproblemet VGs dom: Terningkast 5 317123
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkL @banalplay.bsky.social · 14/08/2025People are lonelier than ever, so here is a robot you can talk to. It won't make you less lonely but it will drive you insane. That will be five thousand dollars. 514331813
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkGregk Foley @gregk.co.uk · 13/08/2025Did anybody even *try* showing Goebbels the actual crime stats? 1937
Gabriel Steinsbekk @gsteinsbekk.bsky.social · 12/08/2025Det ble avgitt 42 758 forhåndsstemmer i hele Norge i går, opp fra 27 671 på den første forhåndsstemmedagen i 2021. Dersom vi antar ca. 3 090 000 stemmer totalt ved årets valg vil det si at 1,54 % av stemmene allerede er inne. 022
Gabriel Steinsbekk @gsteinsbekk.bsky.social · 12/08/2025Det ble avgitt 9 459 forhåndsstemmer i Oslo i går, mot 6 461 første dag i forhåndsstemmeperioden i 2021. 000
Gabriel Steinsbekk @gsteinsbekk.bsky.social · 12/08/2025Det ble avgitt 9 279 tidligstemmer i år. Det er en økning fra 8 469 i 2021. Dersom vi antar at det vil bli avgitt ca. 3 090 000 stemmer ved valget så øker andelen tidligstemmer minimalt fra 0,28 i 2021 til 0,30 i 2025. 000
Gabriel Steinsbekk @gsteinsbekk.bsky.social · 11/08/2025Snitt fire første målinger i august (endring fra de samme målingene i juni): Ap: 27,6 (-1,1) H: 15,4 (-1,2) Frp: 21,5 (+0,9) Sp: 6,2 (+0,5) SV: 6,6 (+0,4) KrF: 4,0 (+0,2) V: 4,6 (+0,2) MDG: 3,4 (-0,3) R: 6,1 (-0,1) Mandatfordeling: 85 mot 84 i rødgrønn favør. 010
Gabriel Steinsbekk @gsteinsbekk.bsky.social · 09/08/2025Dersom MDG settes til 3,9 %, altså under sperregrensen, på dagens måling i Klassekampen og Nationen går rødgrønn side bare ned fra 91 til 90 mandater. Dersom KrF i tillegg settes til 4,0 % så er det fortsatt rødgrønt flertall med 87 mandater. klassekampen.no/artikkel/202...klassekampen.noRødgrønt flertall med MDG på vippenHvis KrF kommer over sperregrensa, kan flertallet snu fra rødt til blått. 010
Gabriel Steinsbekk @gsteinsbekk.bsky.social · 09/08/2025Snitt av de to første målingene i august (endring fra de samme målingene i juni, altså ikke inkl. Norfakta i juli): Ap: 26,8 (-2,3) H: 15,1 (-1,0) Frp: 22,3 (+1,7) Sp: 6,5 (+1,2) SV: 6,5 (+1,0) KrF: 3,5 (-0,6) V: 4,5 (-0,5) MDG: 3,7 (-0,1) R: 6,1 (+0,1) 100
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkLinus Westheuser @lwestheuser.bsky.social · 04/08/2025Proper thread after the summer break– but if you were looking for a beach read about political reasoning in today's working class, look no further: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... 417656
Gabriel Steinsbekk @gsteinsbekk.bsky.social · 03/08/2025Erna Solbergs valgkrets er den eneste som har svingt mer i rødgrønn retning siden 2021. Fire valgkretser har svingt fra rødgrønt til borgerlig flertall. www.pollofpolls.no?cmd=Kommenta... pollofpolls.no - «Sving» i valgkretsene 2021–2025pollofpolls.no«Sving» i valgkretsene 2021–20251) «Sving» = endringene i avstanden mellom blokkene fra stortingsvalget i 2021 til siste måling i 2025. Svingen for de nitten valgkretsene er angitt i pkt. 6. 2) Svingen i landet som helhet på snittet... 020
Gabriel Steinsbekk @gsteinsbekk.bsky.social · 02/08/2025Frp var større enn Høyre+Venstre+KrF til sammen i både juli og juni. 5357
Gabriel Steinsbekk @gsteinsbekk.bsky.social · 31/07/2025Adressa har klart å pikselere det lille bildet til venstre, men ikke det store bildet, så nå kan alle som leser avisen ringe på til folk i Kolstadflaten borettslag. 000
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkKeith @mosheroperandi.bsky.social · 13/07/2025I think it's now possible to make a poli-sci course that equips one for modern political analysis better than most classic theory and has a syllabus sourced entirely from random internet posts. Text 1. Wilhoit's Law, born as part of a 2018 blog comment crookedtimber.org/2018/03/21/l... 18437811149
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkKillvia Bones 💀💜 @vestenet.bsky.social · 22/06/2025have basically been thinking about this tweet all year, and i finally found it again 219555
Gabriel Steinsbekk @gsteinsbekk.bsky.social · 05/06/2025Fra et snitt på 13,6 % i juni 2009 økte Høyre oppslutningen med 3,6 prosentpoeng fram til valgdagen i september. 000
Gabriel Steinsbekk @gsteinsbekk.bsky.social · 05/06/2025Snitt tre målinger så langt i juni (endring fra de samme tre i mai): Ap: 29,7 (+1,4) H: 16,1 (-2,3) Frp: 19,9 (-1,5) Sp: 5,5 (-0,2) SV: 6,4 (-0,6) KrF: 4,2 (+0,5) V: 4,2 (+0,3) MDG: 3,3 (+0,7) R: 6,1 (+0,8) Blokkene: +5,1 rødgrønn favør 100
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkAdam Schwarz @adamjschwarz.bsky.social · 03/06/2025Exit polls suggest the Democratic Party's Lee Jae-myung has won the South Korean presidential election with 51.7% of votes. You may recall him scaling the walls of the National Assembly last year to bypass a military siege and vote against President Yoon's coup attempt. 0599
Reposted by Gabriel Steinsbekktef @tef.bsky.social · 08/05/2025you know who else came from chicago and was on "a mission from god" 660190634550
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkPaul Fairie @paulisci.bsky.social · 08/05/2025Early exit polls suggest the new pope did particularly well with male voters aged 45-79. 206126411834
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkTarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 02/05/2025Given the local election results in the UK, a short #thread - based on much of our own research - on the vicious cycle of radical right support that we have seen in many countries. 1) When radical right parties (such as Reform) are electorally successful established parties move right on immigration 11344212
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkData Bear 🏳️🌈 @dataandpolitics.net · 29/04/2025Results from Elections Canada. Pierre Poilievre has lost his seat. 1843140538
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkCEO Johnny Cans @oldmatecans.bsky.social · 29/04/2025Everyone watching Pierre Poilievre eat absolute shit in Carleton and respecting Canada's bilingual culture. 69159053235
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkPhilippe J. Fournier @338canada.bsky.social · 27/04/2025338Canada🍁federal update | April 27, 2025 🔴LPC 187 🔵CPC 125 ⚜️BQ 23 🟠NDP 7 🟢GPC 1 Details here → 338canada.com/federal.htm Find your riding here → 338canada.com/districts.htm 2024256
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkPhilippe J. Fournier @338canada.bsky.social · 28/04/2025Final 🇨🇦 polls: qc125.com/canada/sonda... 🔴LPC +2, Abacus 🔴LPC +2, Liaison 🔴LPC +3, Mainstreet 🔴LPC +3, Nanos 🔴LPC +3, Pollara 🔴LPC +4, Angus Reid 🔴LPC +4, Innovative 🔴LPC +4, Ipsos 🔴LPC +4, Léger 🔴LPC +4, Pallas 🔴LPC +5, MQO 🔴LPC +5, Research Co. 🔴LPC +6, EKOS 1414325
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkNY Times Pitchbot @nytpitchbot.bsky.social · 20/04/2025If Jesus had focused more on kitchen table issues and less on unpopular outcasts like lepers and prostitutes, he might have won more support from white working-class Judeans. 268226214662
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkShoe-per Intelligence @shoe.bsky.social · 09/04/2025who did this 383239641
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkDare Obasanjo @carnage4life.bsky.social · 07/04/2025At this rate MAGA will only be able to afford to rent the libs. 299246155390
Reposted by Gabriel Steinsbekkpixelatedboat aka “mr bluesky” @pixelatedboat.bsky.social · 06/04/2025I wonder what my old friend the Chicken Man is up to these days. Does he still live in Philly? I hope he’s doing okay. Now to relax and listen to this new Bruce Springsteen album 421114105
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkWill Davies @will-davies.bsky.social · 31/03/2025If you're a psychopath who obsesses over markets and ratings, perhaps the ability to drive numbers downwards at a global scale, simply through saying things to journalists, is just as satisfying as the ability push them upwards 1326
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkChristoph Ellersgaard @chellersgaard.bsky.social · 28/03/2025The very first paper from our large comparative project - the World Elite Database - is out. Lots of coordination and important discussion on comparing elites allow us to - for the first time really - compare elites across very different national contexts. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...onlinelibrary.wiley.comVarieties of Economic Elites? Preliminary Results From the World Elite Database (WED)The strategies, decisions and beliefs of those who occupy prominent positions of economic power have influence on very large corporations and the markets they dominate, on vast amounts of economic re... 210951
Reposted by Gabriel Steinsbekkin the pocket of Big Tenant @allezlesboulez.bsky.social · 26/03/2025my “we are currently clean on OPSEC” shirt has people asking a lot of questions that are answered by my shirt 151375202
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkGreg Proops @gregproops.bsky.social · 25/03/2025He drinks a whiskey drink He drinks a vodka drink He drinks a lager drink He drinks a cider drink He sends a text that remind him of the war plans He sends a text that reminds him of the war crimes #Hegseth 339147063131
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkChristoph Ellersgaard @chellersgaard.bsky.social · 11/03/2025With our Advanced Mixed Methods class, we have played with Multiple correspondence analysis and created this neat little social space of Danish Cabinet members in 2025. Based on their delegated and charismatic capital, we find two dimensions: 1) Total capital and 2) Ideological versus Pragmatic 2132
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkChase Mitchell @chasemit.bsky.social · 05/03/2025Dems look like they're bidding on fascism at a silent auction 660187712463
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkBetter Things Are Possible @internethippo.bsky.social · 01/03/2025You: Oh my god the house is on fire! Me (wise, has read books): And you're surprised? Houses have been on fire before [as the flames consume us both] Furthermore, 151141911711
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkSam Greene @samagreene.bsky.social · 01/03/2025What we learned yesterday: nothing we didn’t know, if we were paying attention. What we’ll learn this weekend: whether European leaders have been paying attention. (A 🧵) /1 21975279
Reposted by Gabriel SteinsbekkRhodri Marsden @rhodri.biz · 28/02/2025“Can I ask a practical question at this point… are we going to sign the minerals deal” 920934
