Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 05/10/2026I still haven't seen a single person be able to defend or explain why you'd vote against this amendment or why it was unacceptable. It's the smoking gun as to exactly what the Zionism is Racism motion aims to achieve. 1723850
Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Hey Jon, We sample and weight on key demogs and voting behaviour so the composition of the sample reflects that of the population. 100
Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Our testing of the PMs speech at conference with @persuasionuk.bsky.social and @steveakehurst.bsky.social confirms that it landed well outside the bubble. Great summary thread below from Steve 👇. Tables in the archive shortly (: 041
Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Hi, you can find tabs here convergent-opinion.com/api/polling-...convergent-opinion.com 110
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Definitely one of most self-confident & coherent speeches from a political leader in recent years. The full range of Burnhamism there - public control, political reform, social care - plus a gamble on triple lock. Something for every bit of the Labour’s electoral coalition 1104
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Share a thought tonight for James Johnson, who will for once not have to motivatedly reason his way to why a poll-related news story is positive for the Tories, but won't be able to share that insight. 928051
Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 01/09/2026New from @convergent-opinion.bsky.social - We take a look at the polls for the upcoming Brazilian Presidential election. Read our free subscriber only post, here: convergentopinion.substack.com/p/economic-i...convergentopinion.substack.comEconomic insecurity is splitting Brazil’s electionThe voters who feel financially squeezed, rather than those on the lowest incomes, are breaking hardest for Flávio Bolsonaro. 000
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)Convergent Opinion @convergent-opinion.bsky.social · 01/09/2026NEW: @convergent-opinion.bsky.social takes a deep dive into what the polling is telling us ahead of Brazil's upcoming presidential election 102
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social · 14/08/2026The only real conclusion I would draw is maybe we should all think a bit more about how our culture uses the phone screen to separate us from the idea there are people on the other side. This is not a new observation. This is not something I’ve been particularly good at myself, either. 844054
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)The Week in Polls @theweekinpolls.bsky.social · 03/08/2026First MRP of the Burnham Premiership. Unlikely to be the last...! 021
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 03/08/2026Very useful thread here on some of the recent trends 032
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 03/08/2026So Convergent the most accurate pollster in Makerfield. Is showing Labour in the inner city close to their GE24 numbers: Hackney North: 55%, Lab, Green 21% Hackney South: 53% Lab, Green 23% Walthemstow: 48% Lab, Green 23% GE24 HN: 59% Lab, 23% Green HS: 59% Lab, 24% Green W: 59% Lab, 20% Green 121
Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 03/08/2026First MRP of the Burnham premiership from @convergent-opinion.bsky.social 👀 044
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)David Klemperer @dmk1793.bsky.social · 22/07/2026We must remember the Utøya massacre, and remember it for what it was: a far-right attack specifically targeted against democratic socialist activists. Today, the ideologies of its perpetrator are openly espoused by a global network of nationalist oligarchs as they wage war on democratic societies. 71542601
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 21/07/2026There are *5.7* effective parties in this damned two-party system! 12512
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)Scott Bryan @scottygb.bsky.social · 19/07/2026Wayne Rooney speaks for everyone. 613498916
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)Chris Curtis MP @chriscurtis94.bsky.social · 19/07/2026I've written about growth, why it needs to remain the number one mission of the government, and why I believe devolution will help. open.substack.com/pub/chriscur...open.substack.comEconomic growth must remain the government’s number one missionBritain has spent nearly two decades standing still. Getting it moving again means reforming a state that has become better at stopping things than delivering them. 53810
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 17/07/2026New: Trump's speech about election integrity was full of refuted claims. But Americans and political experts are worried about how our elections are conducted, and have concerns about our democracy. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/americans-...blog.fiftyplusone.newsAmericans are not confident in election integrityPlus, polls about the World Cup, patriotism, and more. 072
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 08/07/2026One of the questions we've had about our latest report is whether the public would back this type of 'routes for returns' approach, whereby the UK sought a deal with European partners We suggest the answer is yes 🧵 141
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)The Future Governance Forum (FGF) @futuregovforum.bsky.social · 07/07/2026🚨Published today 🚨 Today FGF publishes a new report setting out how the new PM can win back public trust and deliver on one of voters’ top priorities by creating an asylum system that is fair, controlled and workable. Full report in comments.futuregovernanceforum.co.ukRethinking Migration 01 - Future Governance ForumCutting the number of small boat crossings is crucial to restoring public trust in government. The next Prime Minister will have three years to achieve a significant reduction in irregular Channel cro... 163
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)bethgardiner-smith.bsky.social @bethgardiner-smith.bsky.social · 07/07/2026What should a new PM do about the Channel? We've published our next report on this topic today arguing the govt should prioritise expanding the deal with France to other EU countries starting w a 6-month 'circuit breaker' to dramatically change the incentives of getting into a boat. Here's why... 132
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)👻 Jack Djinn Wail 🧞 @jacktindale.bsky.social · 07/07/2026STOP INTERVIEWING RANDOM MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC WHO ARE HANGING AROUND THE TOWN CENTRE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON YOU MAY AS WELL ASK A CAT FOR HOW REFLECTIVE OF PUBLIC OPINION IT IS www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukWhat do Farage's Clacton constituents think of his resignation?People living in Clacton share contrasting feelings of frustration and support towards Nigel Farage. 2841075
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 03/07/2026Britons tend to feel it's more important for an Andy Burnham government to pursue policies it believes are right than to stick to the policies in the Labour manifesto Pursue policies it believes are right: 48% Stick to manifesto promises: 16% Something else: 14% yougov.com/en-gb/daily-... 56318
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)James O'Malley @jamesomalley.co.uk · 28/06/2026It's very striking to see a minister who understands his brief on quite a deep level. I hope Burnham doesn't replace him. 5596
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 26/06/2026Extraordinary credit to Sadiq Khan for pushing through this deeply controversial policy. This is what can happen when politicians are prepared to stick to their principles. 20983268
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 22/06/2026🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 22 June 2026 26% ➡️ Reform 20% 🌹 Labour 19% 🌳 Conservative 13% 🍃 Green 12% 🐥 Lib Dem 6% 👽 Other 3% ✖️ SNP 062
Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 19/06/2026Always a pleasure working with @steveakehurst.bsky.social and @persuasionuk.bsky.social. Great thread below! 010
Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 19/06/2026Very happy with how @convergent-opinion.bsky.social did on this one. Polling these things is extremely hard and we tried out some new approaches methodologically that seemed to help us out here. Far from perfect, but for our first shot at a by-election poll as a company I'm dead chuffed. 181
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 19/06/2026Well done to all pollsters who polled in Makerfield - incredibly hard to do and all got the winner right. And especially well done to Convergent Opinion - a new pollster led by @fintan-smith.bsky.social and @dylanspielman.bsky.social - who I think came the closest! Survation a close second. 💥 0103
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)Sage T. Greene, Author @sagetgreene.bsky.social · 16/06/2026The entire Microsoft 365 lineup runs so unreliably, slows down my computer processes, and frustrates our clients by asking them to log in even when they don't need to. But at least it's also an expensive subscription with poor integrations that also occasionally deletes saved folders for no reason. 1261684235
Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 14/06/2026Methodology: we surveyed 525 adults in Makerfield, both online and face-to-face, between 2nd and 12th June 2026. Voting intention figures are based on an MRP style model. Full tables here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets... 020
Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 14/06/2026Reform is losing voters in both directions. One in ten (10%) who backed the party in 2024 are now voting for Burnham. Meanwhile, 8% have switched to Rupert Lowe’s Retore party. 130
Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 14/06/2026Kenyon’s sexist comments are turning off those who backed Reform previously. 28% of voters who’ve switched *from* Ref in 2024 or 2026 to another party now raised it spontaneously. Overall, 16% mention it. 142
Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 14/06/2026Burnham is retaining Labour 2024 voters VERY well. Eight in ten (82%) who backed Labour previously, say they will again on Thurs. Much higher than Labour’s retention rate in national polling (~50%) 131
Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 14/06/2026‘Honesty and integrity’ most mentioned consideration when deciding who to vote for (32%) for those backing Labour, followed by ‘competence, track record, and delivery (21%). ‘Immigration control’ top among Ref voters (43%) 120
Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 14/06/2026NEW from @convergent-opinion.bsky.social Labour 12pts ahead in Makerfield, with Kenyon's sexist comments actively costing Reform votes Lab: 49% Ref: 37% Res: 5% Grn: 5% Other 5% 525 adults, 2-12 June 2026 117415
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)The Week in Polls @theweekinpolls.bsky.social · 14/06/2026Includes debut by-election poll from Convergent - @dylanspielman.bsky.social / @fintan-smith.bsky.social. A nice low profile contest for a debut :) 121
Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 14/06/2026lol - having a relaxing Sunday as you can imagine 😅 000
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)Persuasion UK @persuasionuk.bsky.social · 11/06/2026Our director @steveakehurst.bsky.social is in @cityam.bsky.social, talking about baselines for assessing Makerfield: "As strange as it sounds, Labour have no right to even be competitive in this seat; they should be 20-odd points behind based on national polling". www.cityam.com/what-should-...cityam.comWhat should we make of Makerfield?Much analysis of the Makerfield by-election focuses on what it means for Keir Starmer and the Labour party's national fortunes - but how should we assess it on its own terms? 022
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)Jonn Elledge @jonnelledge.bsky.social · 10/06/2026oh FUCK OFF 3152950
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 08/06/2026One of the obvious problems with a under-16 social media ban is that it won't work. (60%+ of Australian under-16s are still using these platforms). But it will make people feel like something has been done so they won't tackle the content, which is the real issue. 701055267
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 04/06/2026DfE pupil data is out today and shows that the number of private school pupils has dropped 5.6% since VAT was introduced. Not 25% like the independent schools council predicted. Or the 50% we saw in some right-wing papers. 5.6%. 851351420
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 03/06/2026Nice illustration of Labour's problem, from the British Election Study. Centre-right and right-wing voters think it is very left-wing (moreso than the Greens!) while left-wing voters think it is a centrist party 1255
Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 03/06/2026You can see Convergent's modelling of switching (2024 -> 2026 locals) down to ward level on our dashboard here convergent-opinion.com/local-electi... - happy browsing.convergent-opinion.com2026 Local Elections — Voter Switching | ConvergentExplore how 2024 general election voters switched in England's 2026 local elections — ward by ward and council-wide. 010
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 01/06/2026A key point from the data we collected for this post is the importance of differential turnout in the local elections. Reform 2024 voters were just much more enthusiastic than those of other parties. Had it been even their percentage would have fallen into the low 20s. 99439
Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 31/05/2026New post: "Playing on difficult mode" Using data from an exclusive new mega-poll I look at how a new Labour leader can come up with a governing project that rebuilds the party's voter coalition. And I explain why Blair's strategy wouldn't work. open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/p...open.substack.comPlaying on difficult modeAn exclusive new mega-poll sets out the challenge for Labour 915343