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Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)

@fintan-smith.bsky.social
654 followers 609 following 51 posts

Previously: Polling things at YouGov, Labour Now: Co-founder of polling and market research company @convergent-opinion.bsky.social Often confused with a dog called Fenton youtu.be/3GRSbr0EYYU

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Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I still haven't seen a single person be able to defend or explain why you'd vote against this amendment or why it was unacceptable. It's the smoking gun as to exactly what the Zionism is Racism motion aims to achieve.
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Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Hey Jon, We sample and weight on key demogs and voting behaviour so the composition of the sample reflects that of the population.
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Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Our testing of the PMs speech at conference with @persuasionuk.bsky.social and @steveakehurst.bsky.social confirms that it landed well outside the bubble. Great summary thread below from Steve 👇. Tables in the archive shortly (:
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Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Hi, you can find tabs here convergent-opinion.com/api/polling-...
convergent-opinion.com
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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Definitely one of most self-confident & coherent speeches from a political leader in recent years. The full range of Burnhamism there - public control, political reform, social care - plus a gamble on triple lock. Something for every bit of the Labour’s electoral coalition
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Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
🤦🏻‍♂️
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Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Share a thought tonight for James Johnson, who will for once not have to motivatedly reason his way to why a poll-related news story is positive for the Tories, but won't be able to share that insight.
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Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
New from @convergent-opinion.bsky.social - We take a look at the polls for the upcoming Brazilian Presidential election. Read our free subscriber only post, here: convergentopinion.substack.com/p/economic-i...
convergentopinion.substack.com
Economic insecurity is splitting Brazil’s election
The voters who feel financially squeezed, rather than those on the lowest incomes, are breaking hardest for Flávio Bolsonaro.
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Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
Convergent Opinion @convergent-opinion.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
NEW: @convergent-opinion.bsky.social takes a deep dive into what the polling is telling us ahead of Brazil's upcoming presidential election
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Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
The only real conclusion I would draw is maybe we should all think a bit more about how our culture uses the phone screen to separate us from the idea there are people on the other side. This is not a new observation. This is not something I’ve been particularly good at myself, either.
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The Week in Polls @theweekinpolls.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
First MRP of the Burnham Premiership. Unlikely to be the last...!
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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Very useful thread here on some of the recent trends
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sampallis.bsky.social @sampallis.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
So Convergent the most accurate pollster in Makerfield. Is showing Labour in the inner city close to their GE24 numbers: Hackney North: 55%, Lab, Green 21% Hackney South: 53% Lab, Green 23% Walthemstow: 48% Lab, Green 23% GE24 HN: 59% Lab, 23% Green HS: 59% Lab, 24% Green W: 59% Lab, 20% Green
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Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
First MRP of the Burnham premiership from @convergent-opinion.bsky.social 👀
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David Klemperer @dmk1793.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
We must remember the Utøya massacre, and remember it for what it was: a far-right attack specifically targeted against democratic socialist activists. Today, the ideologies of its perpetrator are openly espoused by a global network of nationalist oligarchs as they wage war on democratic societies.
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 21/07/2026
There are *5.7* effective parties in this damned two-party system!
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Scott Bryan @scottygb.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
Wayne Rooney speaks for everyone.
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Chris Curtis MP @chriscurtis94.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
I've written about growth, why it needs to remain the number one mission of the government, and why I believe devolution will help. open.substack.com/pub/chriscur...
open.substack.com
Economic growth must remain the government’s number one mission
Britain has spent nearly two decades standing still. Getting it moving again means reforming a state that has become better at stopping things than delivering them.
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Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 17/07/2026
New: Trump's speech about election integrity was full of refuted claims. But Americans and political experts are worried about how our elections are conducted, and have concerns about our democracy. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/americans-...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
Americans are not confident in election integrity
Plus, polls about the World Cup, patriotism, and more.
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Emily Graham @emilyagraham.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
One of the questions we've had about our latest report is whether the public would back this type of 'routes for returns' approach, whereby the UK sought a deal with European partners We suggest the answer is yes 🧵
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The Future Governance Forum (FGF) @futuregovforum.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
🚨Published today 🚨 Today FGF publishes a new report setting out how the new PM can win back public trust and deliver on one of voters’ top priorities by creating an asylum system that is fair, controlled and workable. Full report in comments.
futuregovernanceforum.co.uk
Rethinking Migration 01 - Future Governance Forum
Cutting the number of small boat crossings is crucial to restoring public trust in government. The next Prime Minister will have three years to achieve a significant reduction in irregular Channel cro...
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bethgardiner-smith.bsky.social @bethgardiner-smith.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
What should a new PM do about the Channel? We've published our next report on this topic today arguing the govt should prioritise expanding the deal with France to other EU countries starting w a 6-month 'circuit breaker' to dramatically change the incentives of getting into a boat. Here's why...
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👻 Jack Djinn Wail 🧞 @jacktindale.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
STOP INTERVIEWING RANDOM MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC WHO ARE HANGING AROUND THE TOWN CENTRE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON YOU MAY AS WELL ASK A CAT FOR HOW REFLECTIVE OF PUBLIC OPINION IT IS www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
What do Farage's Clacton constituents think of his resignation?
People living in Clacton share contrasting feelings of frustration and support towards Nigel Farage.
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YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 03/07/2026
Britons tend to feel it's more important for an Andy Burnham government to pursue policies it believes are right than to stick to the policies in the Labour manifesto Pursue policies it believes are right: 48% Stick to manifesto promises: 16% Something else: 14% yougov.com/en-gb/daily-...
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James O'Malley @jamesomalley.co.uk · 28/06/2026
It's very striking to see a minister who understands his brief on quite a deep level. I hope Burnham doesn't replace him.
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Christabel Cooper @christabelcoops.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Extraordinary credit to Sadiq Khan for pushing through this deeply controversial policy. This is what can happen when politicians are prepared to stick to their principles.
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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 22/06/2026
🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 22 June 2026 26% ➡️ Reform 20% 🌹 Labour 19% 🌳 Conservative 13% 🍃 Green 12% 🐥 Lib Dem 6% 👽 Other 3% ✖️ SNP
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Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Always a pleasure working with @steveakehurst.bsky.social and @persuasionuk.bsky.social. Great thread below!
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Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Thanks mate, hope you're well!
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Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Very happy with how @convergent-opinion.bsky.social did on this one. Polling these things is extremely hard and we tried out some new approaches methodologically that seemed to help us out here. Far from perfect, but for our first shot at a by-election poll as a company I'm dead chuffed.
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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Well done to all pollsters who polled in Makerfield - incredibly hard to do and all got the winner right. And especially well done to Convergent Opinion - a new pollster led by @fintan-smith.bsky.social and @dylanspielman.bsky.social - who I think came the closest! Survation a close second. 💥
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Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
Sage T. Greene, Author @sagetgreene.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
The entire Microsoft 365 lineup runs so unreliably, slows down my computer processes, and frustrates our clients by asking them to log in even when they don't need to. But at least it's also an expensive subscription with poor integrations that also occasionally deletes saved folders for no reason.
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Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
Hey Ellie, We’re not sadly.
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Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
Methodology: we surveyed 525 adults in Makerfield, both online and face-to-face, between 2nd and 12th June 2026. Voting intention figures are based on an MRP style model. Full tables here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
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Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
Reform is losing voters in both directions. One in ten (10%) who backed the party in 2024 are now voting for Burnham. Meanwhile, 8% have switched to Rupert Lowe’s Retore party.
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Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
Kenyon’s sexist comments are turning off those who backed Reform previously. 28% of voters who’ve switched *from* Ref in 2024 or 2026 to another party now raised it spontaneously. Overall, 16% mention it.
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Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
Burnham is retaining Labour 2024 voters VERY well. Eight in ten (82%) who backed Labour previously, say they will again on Thurs. Much higher than Labour’s retention rate in national polling (~50%)
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Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
‘Honesty and integrity’ most mentioned consideration when deciding who to vote for (32%) for those backing Labour, followed by ‘competence, track record, and delivery (21%). ‘Immigration control’ top among Ref voters (43%)
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Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
NEW from @convergent-opinion.bsky.social Labour 12pts ahead in Makerfield, with Kenyon's sexist comments actively costing Reform votes Lab: 49% Ref: 37% Res: 5% Grn: 5% Other 5% 525 adults, 2-12 June 2026
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The Week in Polls @theweekinpolls.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
Includes debut by-election poll from Convergent - @dylanspielman.bsky.social / @fintan-smith.bsky.social. A nice low profile contest for a debut :)
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Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
lol - having a relaxing Sunday as you can imagine 😅
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Persuasion UK @persuasionuk.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Our director @steveakehurst.bsky.social is in @cityam.bsky.social, talking about baselines for assessing Makerfield: "As strange as it sounds, Labour have no right to even be competitive in this seat; they should be 20-odd points behind based on national polling". www.cityam.com/what-should-...
cityam.com
What should we make of Makerfield?
Much analysis of the Makerfield by-election focuses on what it means for Keir Starmer and the Labour party's national fortunes - but how should we assess it on its own terms?
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Jonn Elledge @jonnelledge.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
oh FUCK OFF
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
One of the obvious problems with a under-16 social media ban is that it won't work. (60%+ of Australian under-16s are still using these platforms). But it will make people feel like something has been done so they won't tackle the content, which is the real issue.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
DfE pupil data is out today and shows that the number of private school pupils has dropped 5.6% since VAT was introduced. Not 25% like the independent schools council predicted. Or the 50% we saw in some right-wing papers. 5.6%.
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Reposted by Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann)
Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Nice illustration of Labour's problem, from the British Election Study. Centre-right and right-wing voters think it is very left-wing (moreso than the Greens!) while left-wing voters think it is a centrist party
Chart showing respondents self-placement on a left-right scale and their placement of political parties. Left wingers view Labour as centrist, right-winers view it as left-wing
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Fintan Smith (Mac Gabhann) @fintan-smith.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
You can see Convergent's modelling of switching (2024 -> 2026 locals) down to ward level on our dashboard here convergent-opinion.com/local-electi... - happy browsing.
convergent-opinion.com
2026 Local Elections — Voter Switching | Convergent
Explore how 2024 general election voters switched in England's 2026 local elections — ward by ward and council-wide.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
A key point from the data we collected for this post is the importance of differential turnout in the local elections. Reform 2024 voters were just much more enthusiastic than those of other parties. Had it been even their percentage would have fallen into the low 20s.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
New post: "Playing on difficult mode" Using data from an exclusive new mega-poll I look at how a new Labour leader can come up with a governing project that rebuilds the party's voter coalition. And I explain why Blair's strategy wouldn't work. open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/p...
open.substack.com
Playing on difficult mode
An exclusive new mega-poll sets out the challenge for Labour
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