Reposted by Erich Fischer VAW Glaciology @vaw-glaciology.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Switzerland's glacier report 2026 is out. Swiss glaciers have lost 5% of their ice volume this year. Only the last 5 years accounted for nearly 20% of the total ice loss across Switzerland. The numbers are devastating. Full report → doi.glamos.ch/pubs/annualr... 2185149
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 27/08/2026Paper led by @rosapietroiusti.bsky.social with @erichfischer.bsky.social, @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social, @harrinluke.bsky.social , @chlobrim.bsky.social, Matthias Mengel, Annalisa Savaresi, Sam Adelman and @wimthiery.eu 030
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 27/08/2026The greatest increase in humid heat affecting children is occurring in tropical regions and lower-income countries. In other words, those who contributed the least are affected the most. @carbonbrief.org explainer by @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org here: www.carbonbrief.org/climate-chan...carbonbrief.orgClimate change exposes 580 million children to 20 extra ‘heat-stress days’ every year - Carbon BriefMore than 40% of children under the age of 10 globally are already experiencing at least 20 additional “heat-stress days” due to climate change. 165
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 27/08/2026Children disproportionately affected by heat Our new Science Advances paper, led by @rosapietroiusti.bsky.social and @wimthiery.eu, shows that children today – and in the future – are disproportionately affected by heat stress. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...science.orgAge-specific exposure to human-induced increases in humid heatChildren are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts and will face intensifying effects of climate change during their lifetimes. Here, we show that children already face disproportionate ex... 12817
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 21/08/2026The other is that observed summer warming in Europe happened faster than projected see Vautard et al. Nat Commun (2023). rdcu.be/fBhVo Schumacher et al. Commun Earth Environ (2024). rdcu.be/fBhWMrdcu.beHeat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trendsNature Communications - Heat extremes in Western Europe have increased by an outstanding amount in the last 70 years. Climate models simulate weaker trends. This is largely due to atmospheric... 0222
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 21/08/2026The lower panel shows projections from the paper (Fig.3b). The data are for one model grid point (no bias correction). Note that temperatures at the respective grid point were colder than observed (Fig.3a), which is one reason why the observed state is already close to end-of-century projections. 1120
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 21/08/2026Temperatures in the top and middle panels are observed JJA averages across the four stations (Basel, Bern, Geneva, Zurich). The 2026 value is a preliminary estimate. The top panel ends in 2003, as in the original paper; the middle includes observed data to 2026 with all summers since 2003 in red. 1130
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 21/08/2026The record-breaking summer of 2026 was extreme in many respects, but did not come as a surprise to those who listened two decades ago. See: rdcu.be/fBhrR Schär, C., Vidale, P., Lüthi, D. et al. The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427, 332–336 (2004).rdcu.be 1284
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 21/08/202623 years and nearly 4,000 citations later, the projection has become reality. What looked like a freak record back then will be broken this summer. The distribution of all summers since 2003 is rapidly approaching what was projected back then. 1222
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 21/08/2026Projection has become reality 22 years ago, Christoph Schär et al. published a landmark paper in Nature explaining that the 2003 heatwave was a harbinger of things to come. The study featured an iconic figure - shown in countless lectures - illustrating how outlandish the event was at the time 218876
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 20/08/2026No, I am afraid I don't. The schedule still needs final approval by the governments: www.carbonbrief.org/ipcc-frustra...carbonbrief.orgIPCC: ‘Frustrating and disappointing’ meeting leaves AR7 timeline in deadlock - Carbon BriefGovernments are still at loggerheads over the timeline for publishing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) next three-part report,… 010
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 13/08/2026Radiation Trends Point to Higher Future Warming How sensitive is the climate to increasing CO₂ concentrations? Our new paper led by @ggyuleva.bsky.social with @retoknutti.bsky.social and @sebastian-sippel.bsky.social adds a new piece to the puzzle agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.comRecent Temperature and Energy Imbalance Trends Point to Higher Estimates of Future WarmingRecent surface warming and top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance point to higher future warming than previously estimated Previous constraints on transient climate response using observed surface te... 0173
Reposted by Erich Fischer Mika Rantanen @mikarantane.bsky.social · 10/08/2026In terms of temperature anomaly for the last three months (MJJ 2026 period), France is the most anomalous country in the world with +2.8 °C above the 1991-2020 average. 6222116
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 05/08/202615 March 2027 (submission) 15 October 2027 (acceptance) Please share the preprints with us lead authors so we can include them already for the Second Order Draft 184
Reposted by Erich Fischer Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 26/07/2026🚴♂️Today #TourDeFrance races into #Paris to finish this years' edition. We have seen stages shortened due to extreme heat and wildfire – a direct impact of #ClimateChange 🧵1/4 12811
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 24/07/2026The approach of probing weather forecasts is described as UNSEEN approach in the literature in papers by @vikkithompson.bsky.social, @timokelder.bsky.social or in a nice blogpost by @nickleach.bsky.social: njleach.github.io/2022/08/24/T... 041
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 24/07/2026The forecasts remain very uncertain, and these records may not be shattered this August. But the fact that they have appeared in six consecutive ECMWF forecast cycles suggests they are physically plausible and no longer highly unlikely. If not this year, then perhaps in 2, 5, or 10 years. 131
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 24/07/2026Plausible record-shattering heat extremes Several recent forecast cycles have shown the possibility of >41°C in northern Switzerland and southern Germany during the first week of August. For many Swiss stations, this would exceed the current all-time record by 2–4°C. 183
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 06/07/2026Record-shattering heat and the rapid pace of warming Great article by @eroston.bsky.social @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202... The article reproduces a figure from our recent paper illustrating how heat records have changed in recent decades: rdcu.be/fskRF 01911
Reposted by Erich Fischer Sam Burgess @oceanterra.org · 26/06/2026Europe's most severe #heatwave ever recorded! Well done to the @wwattribution.bsky.social team for publishing their latest #climate attribution study during the heatwave. Read full report: www.worldweatherattribution.org/fossil-fuel-... 0139
Reposted by Erich Fischer MetJam @metjam.co.uk · 24/06/2026A minimum temperature of 22.3ºC at Brize Norton is a new highest minimum June record for the station by OVER 3ºC and an all-time station record by 1.3ºC (previous was 21.0ºC on 20th July 2016). An incredible margin to break the station records by; records began there in 1968. 27831
Reposted by Erich Fischer Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 23/06/2026We recreated the legendary heatwave of summer 1976 in today’s climate… …and it is essentially the same as the weather forecast for this week, on the 50th anniversary. We look set to smash the June 1976 temperature record by 3°C. Written with Hayley Fowler: theconversation.com/we-recreated...theconversation.comWe recreated the legendary heatwave summer of 1976 in today’s climate – here’s what we foundFor 15 consecutive days, temperatures were over 32°C. Today, heatwaves are 3°C or 4°C hotter. 19844
Reposted by Erich Fischer Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 21/06/2026A 40°C in the forecast for Reading now on Wednesday. Still rather uncertain on the exact magnitude, but 3 consecutive days breaking the previous all-time record for Reading (37.6°C) is possible. 49337
Reposted by Erich Fischer Sam Burgess @oceanterra.org · 22/06/2026The UK temperature record that has held since 1976 of 35.6 degrees, is forecast to be 38-40 degrees in June 2026. Future heatwaves will be more intense in an even warmer world. Europeans are exposed to more heat stress than ever before due to continued burning of fossil fuels 11311
Reposted by Erich Fischer Mika Rantanen @mikarantane.bsky.social · 22/06/2026ECMWF weekly mean temperature anomaly shows the highest category (>10°C above normal) over France this week. Typically, these colors appear only during winter warm spells, when temperature variability is the largest. Seeing them in mid-summer says a lot about the intensity of this heatwave. 312159
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 22/06/2026An amazing workshop with plenty of novel and exciting new research. Very timely research, given the ongoing heatwave. Thank you very much @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social, @gabihegerl.bsky.social and Jack Scheff for organizing it. 062
Reposted by Erich Fischer Mike Byrne @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social · 16/06/2026Excited to host the Land-Climate Workshop @uniofstandrews.bsky.social this week! Looking forward to ~40 talks + posters on cutting-edge research questions spanning wildfires, drought, freshwater availability, monsoons, extreme weather and much more! @earthscista.bsky.social @gabihegerl.bsky.social 1105
Reposted by Erich Fischer Lisa Thalheimer, DPhil @lisathalheimer.bsky.social · 15/06/2026Lead by Sabine Undorf, this review synthesizes the latest opportunities and guard rails of impact attribution. 022
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 29/05/2026Maybe we could encourage @edhawkins.org and @vikkithompson.bsky.social to look into it as part of their ReBASE project at some point in the future. 140
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 29/05/2026Sorry for the brusque response I did not mean to sound dismissive. Hunga Tonga is often used to distract from the role of anthropogenic climate change. Jucker's paper is very valuable but aimed at isolating only the water vapour effect and neglecting other aspects. The cited report used all evidence 110
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 29/05/2026Would be interesting to do a storyline / nudged run translating 1921 into present-day or near-future climate. 140
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 29/05/2026Yes, I had the same thought. Looks like decreasing variance. Maybe due to the mechanism proposed by J Screen (see below) or because springs moved from being half snow-covered, half snow-free to mostly snow free? Have you looked into this @mikarantane.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/ncl...nature.comArctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid- to high-latitudes - Nature Climate ChangeArctic amplification is thought to be altering the polar jet stream and increasing Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude temperature variability. This study investigates cold extremes in the mid-latitudes ... 140
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 26/05/2026No it's not ignored but turned out to be irrelevant www.wcrp-climate.org/news/wcrp-ne... Key findings of the major community report: - Surface cooling (~0.05°C) was indistinguishable from natural variability - 2023–2024 record temperatures were *not* caused by the eruptionwcrp-climate.orgAvailable now! International Report on the Global Atmospheric Impacts of the 2022 Hunga Volcano Eruption This call invites the community to nominate candidates (including self-nomination) to become a member of the new Earth System Modelling and Observations (ESMO) Infrastructure Panel (WIP). 110
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 26/05/2026Yet another example of record-shattering heat with both day- and nighttime records being broken by large margins. A distinct signal of the high warming rate. 183
Reposted by Erich Fischer Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 14/05/2026To keep track of the rapidly growing field of attribution research, Carbon Brief has mapped every published study on how climate change has influenced extreme weather. Explore the interactive map here ⬇️ interactive.carbonbrief.org/attribution-... 316482
Reposted by Erich Fischer World Weather Attribution @wwattribution.bsky.social · 14/05/2026NEW: Players and fans face increased heat danger at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, since USA '94. Our results show that from Miami to Kansas City, climate change is increasing the risk of playing the World Cup in much of the northern hemisphere during summer. (1/2) 12512
Reposted by Erich Fischer Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 11/05/2026We show that for this particular event the rainfall is incredible sensitive to the dynamics, and future dynamical changes may outweigh thermodynamics in a warmer world, reducing the rainfall. 🌧️🌧️🌧️ rdcu.be/fh2YWrdcu.beThe role of subtle dynamical changes in the European extreme rainfall of July 2021 031
Reposted by Erich Fischer Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 11/05/2026Extreme rainfall will become more frequent and intense in a warmer climate, however not every event follows the general trend In our new study we show the Ahr floods of 2021 may have been the perfect storm: rdcu.be/fh2YW @erichfischer.bsky.social @knmi.nl @ivm-vu-amsterdam.bsky.social 1112
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 29/04/2026Uncertain dynamic response of mid-latitude winter precipitation New @nature.com paper led by Lei Gu with Dominik Schumacher, @sebastian-sippel.bsky.social, Istvan Dunkl, @robinnoyelle.bsky.social, Jitendra Singh, Lorenzo Pierini, @retoknutti.bsky.social and @erichfischer.bsky.social @ethz.ch 0134
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 07/04/2026Excellent idea @mikarantane.bsky.social . We currently have a setup that would be very well suited to test this in a coupled model, (a) whether it can even reproduce this and (b) what the impacts may look like. We will think about it, great idea. 150
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 07/04/2026Honored and excited to contribute to the important work of @carbonbrief.org as a contributing editor 0121
Reposted by Erich Fischer Pedram Hassanzadeh @pedramh.bsky.social · 21/05/2025Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan extremes? We report @pnas.org that the answer is NO for global gray swans, YES for regional ones: AI models can't extrapolate from weaker events but can learn from similar events in other regions during training! doi.org/10.1073/pnas...doi.orgCan AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical cyclones? | PNASPredicting gray swan weather extremes, which are possible but so rare that they are absent from the training dataset, is a major concern for AI wea... 44714
Reposted by Erich Fischer John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 27/03/2026Almost-global-average sea-surface temperatures are creeping up to record levels again and we’re still in La Niña (according to NOAA). There’s some uncertainty though as you can see from these two datasets.. 21814
Reposted by Erich Fischer Paulo Ceppi @pauloceppi.bsky.social · 26/03/2026Cloudiness has been declining globally for the last two decades. Why is this and how does it matter for global warming? Read our new article to find out! 👇 doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4153-2026 And see the @carbonbrief.org post summarising the key findings buff.ly/oLxKacOdoi.orgEmerging low-cloud feedback and adjustment in global satellite observationsAbstract. From mid-2003 to mid-2024, a global decrease in low-cloud amount enhanced the absorption of solar radiation by 0.22±0.07 W m−2 per decade (±1σ range), accelerating the energy imbalance trend... 13512
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 25/03/2026Excellent summary on our study in @nature.com by @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org (@carbonbrief.org) with comments from Rowan Sutton, Karen McKinnon and @robertvautard.bsky.social www.carbonbrief.org/limiting-glo...carbonbrief.orgLimiting global warming to 2C would not ‘rule out’ extreme impacts - Carbon BriefLimiting warming to 2C above pre-industrial temperatures may not be enough to prevent “extreme global climate outcomes”. 01210
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 25/03/2026Fair point. We argue it is often perceived as moderate warming but our paper suggests that indeed the regional changes could well be extremely severe. 010
Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 25/03/2026Extreme global climate outcomes are possible even at 2°C of warming In our new Nature study led by @bevacquae.bsky.social with Jakob Zscheischler and @janasillmann.bsky.social, we show that even moderate warming of 2°C could lead to extreme outcomes. www.nature.com/articles/s41...nature.comModerate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes - NatureExtreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2 °C warming and may turn out to be more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3 °C or 4 °C warming. 34821
Reposted by Erich Fischer Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 21/03/2026The current heatwave in the US Southwest is utterly destroying many records for this time of year. Phoenix, Arizona has ~90 years of daily temperature data, and yet recent temperatures beat the previous March record by 5 °F (2.8 °C), and would actually tie the record for April. 1020887
Reposted by Erich Fischer Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 21/03/2026Honestly, this historic heat dome across the West is really hard to put into words for me. Temperatures over 110°F (43°C) in March, shattering all-time monthly records on multiple consecutive days, and not just by a little. ➡️ I can confirm this is human-caused climate change. polarwx.com/models/ 44848375
Reposted by Erich Fischer Peter Thorne @peterthorne.bsky.social · 28/01/2026New discussion paper just dropped that’s taken shall we say a little work to get this far … essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... please be kind. Not on an at all sensitive topic in the slightest.essd.copernicus.orgHow well can we quantify when 1.5 °C of global warming has been exceeded?Abstract. Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement agreed to limit the long-term increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to keep temperatures below 1.5 °C relative to p... 813469