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Erich Fischer

@erichfischer.bsky.social
6.1K followers 341 following 80 posts

Climate scientist investigating weather and climate extremes, professor at ETH Zurich (@ethzurich.bsky.social), fascinated by weather and climate, IPCC AR6 lead author

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Reposted by Erich Fischer
VAW Glaciology @vaw-glaciology.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Switzerland's glacier report 2026 is out. Swiss glaciers have lost 5% of their ice volume this year. Only the last 5 years accounted for nearly 20% of the total ice loss across Switzerland. The numbers are devastating. Full report → doi.glamos.ch/pubs/annualr...
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Paper led by @rosapietroiusti.bsky.social with @erichfischer.bsky.social, @rupertstuartsmith.bsky.social, @harrinluke.bsky.social , @chlobrim.bsky.social, Matthias Mengel, Annalisa Savaresi, Sam Adelman and @wimthiery.eu
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
The greatest increase in humid heat affecting children is occurring in tropical regions and lower-income countries. In other words, those who contributed the least are affected the most. @carbonbrief.org explainer by @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org here: www.carbonbrief.org/climate-chan...
carbonbrief.org
Climate change exposes 580 million children to 20 extra ‘heat-stress days’ every year - Carbon Brief
More than 40% of children under the age of 10 globally are already experiencing at least 20 additional “heat-stress days” due to climate change.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Children disproportionately affected by heat Our new Science Advances paper, led by @rosapietroiusti.bsky.social and @wimthiery.eu, shows that children today – and in the future – are disproportionately affected by heat stress. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Age-specific exposure to human-induced increases in humid heat
Children are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts and will face intensifying effects of climate change during their lifetimes. Here, we show that children already face disproportionate ex...
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
The other is that observed summer warming in Europe happened faster than projected see Vautard et al. Nat Commun (2023). rdcu.be/fBhVo Schumacher et al. Commun Earth Environ (2024). rdcu.be/fBhWM
rdcu.be
Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends
Nature Communications - Heat extremes in Western Europe have increased by an outstanding amount in the last 70 years. Climate models simulate weaker trends. This is largely due to atmospheric...
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
The lower panel shows projections from the paper (Fig.3b). The data are for one model grid point (no bias correction). Note that temperatures at the respective grid point were colder than observed (Fig.3a), which is one reason why the observed state is already close to end-of-century projections.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Temperatures in the top and middle panels are observed JJA averages across the four stations (Basel, Bern, Geneva, Zurich). The 2026 value is a preliminary estimate. The top panel ends in 2003, as in the original paper; the middle includes observed data to 2026 with all summers since 2003 in red.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
The record-breaking summer of 2026 was extreme in many respects, but did not come as a surprise to those who listened two decades ago. See: rdcu.be/fBhrR Schär, C., Vidale, P., Lüthi, D. et al. The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427, 332–336 (2004).
rdcu.be
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
23 years and nearly 4,000 citations later, the projection has become reality. What looked like a freak record back then will be broken this summer. The distribution of all summers since 2003 is rapidly approaching what was projected back then.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Projection has become reality 22 years ago, Christoph Schär et al. published a landmark paper in Nature explaining that the 2003 heatwave was a harbinger of things to come. The study featured an iconic figure - shown in countless lectures - illustrating how outlandish the event was at the time
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
No, I am afraid I don't. The schedule still needs final approval by the governments: www.carbonbrief.org/ipcc-frustra...
carbonbrief.org
IPCC: ‘Frustrating and disappointing’ meeting leaves AR7 timeline in deadlock - Carbon Brief
Governments are still at loggerheads over the timeline for publishing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) next three-part report,…
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Radiation Trends Point to Higher Future Warming How sensitive is the climate to increasing CO₂ concentrations? Our new paper led by @ggyuleva.bsky.social with @retoknutti.bsky.social and @sebastian-sippel.bsky.social adds a new piece to the puzzle agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Recent Temperature and Energy Imbalance Trends Point to Higher Estimates of Future Warming
Recent surface warming and top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance point to higher future warming than previously estimated Previous constraints on transient climate response using observed surface te...
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Reposted by Erich Fischer
Mika Rantanen @mikarantane.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
In terms of temperature anomaly for the last three months (MJJ 2026 period), France is the most anomalous country in the world with +2.8 °C above the 1991-2020 average.
Map showing 2-m temperature anomaly for May 2026 to Jul 2026 from ERA5 reanalysis. France and the whole western Europe is dark red, indicating much warmer than normal conditions.Bar diagram showing the top 10 and bottom 10 countries in terms of temperature anomalies from normal. France ranks the first warmest.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
15 March 2027 (submission) 15 October 2027 (acceptance) Please share the preprints with us lead authors so we can include them already for the Second Order Draft
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
🚴‍♂️Today #TourDeFrance races into #Paris to finish this years' edition. We have seen stages shortened due to extreme heat and wildfire – a direct impact of #ClimateChange 🧵1/4
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
The approach of probing weather forecasts is described as UNSEEN approach in the literature in papers by @vikkithompson.bsky.social, @timokelder.bsky.social or in a nice blogpost by @nickleach.bsky.social: njleach.github.io/2022/08/24/T...
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
The forecasts remain very uncertain, and these records may not be shattered this August. But the fact that they have appeared in six consecutive ECMWF forecast cycles suggests they are physically plausible and no longer highly unlikely. If not this year, then perhaps in 2, 5, or 10 years.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Plausible record-shattering heat extremes Several recent forecast cycles have shown the possibility of >41°C in northern Switzerland and southern Germany during the first week of August. For many Swiss stations, this would exceed the current all-time record by 2–4°C.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Record-shattering heat and the rapid pace of warming Great article by @eroston.bsky.social @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202... The article reproduces a figure from our recent paper illustrating how heat records have changed in recent decades: rdcu.be/fskRF
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Sam Burgess @oceanterra.org · 26/06/2026
Europe's most severe #heatwave ever recorded! Well done to the @wwattribution.bsky.social team for publishing their latest #climate attribution study during the heatwave. Read full report: www.worldweatherattribution.org/fossil-fuel-...
he cities (EU + Switzerland + UK + Norway urban regions with a population of over 50,000) where WBGT records were broken (or forecast to be broken) during this heatwave. A record was broken in approximately 45% of urban regions.
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MetJam @metjam.co.uk · 24/06/2026
A minimum temperature of 22.3ºC at Brize Norton is a new highest minimum June record for the station by OVER 3ºC and an all-time station record by 1.3ºC (previous was 21.0ºC on 20th July 2016). An incredible margin to break the station records by; records began there in 1968.
Spaghetti chart showing Brize Norton daily minimum temperatures for every day of the year from 1968 to 2026. Faint grey lines trace 58 years of historical data, forming a seasonal cycle from around -5°C in winter to a summer peak of roughly 15°C. A dashed red horizontal line marks the previous June minimum temperature record of 19.1°C, set on 28 June 2025. A thick red line shows 2026's observed minimum temperatures, tracking within the historical range through winter and spring before climbing sharply in late June, well above the entire historical envelope at that point in the year. A large bold number, '22.3°C', sits at the top of the chart with its base resting on the 20°C gridline, connected by an arrow to the peak of the red line on 24 June 2026. A subtitle beneath states this is a new all-time minimum temperature record for the station, beaten for the second consecutive June running
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 23/06/2026
We recreated the legendary heatwave of summer 1976 in today’s climate… …and it is essentially the same as the weather forecast for this week, on the 50th anniversary. We look set to smash the June 1976 temperature record by 3°C. Written with Hayley Fowler: theconversation.com/we-recreated...
theconversation.com
We recreated the legendary heatwave summer of 1976 in today’s climate – here’s what we found
For 15 consecutive days, temperatures were over 32°C. Today, heatwaves are 3°C or 4°C hotter.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 21/06/2026
A 40°C in the forecast for Reading now on Wednesday. Still rather uncertain on the exact magnitude, but 3 consecutive days breaking the previous all-time record for Reading (37.6°C) is possible.
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Sam Burgess @oceanterra.org · 22/06/2026
The UK temperature record that has held since 1976 of 35.6 degrees, is forecast to be 38-40 degrees in June 2026. Future heatwaves will be more intense in an even warmer world. Europeans are exposed to more heat stress than ever before due to continued burning of fossil fuels
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Mika Rantanen @mikarantane.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
ECMWF weekly mean temperature anomaly shows the highest category (>10°C above normal) over France this week. Typically, these colors appear only during winter warm spells, when temperature variability is the largest. Seeing them in mid-summer says a lot about the intensity of this heatwave.
2 m temperature weekly mean anomaly from ECMWF sub-seasonal forecast. The colors are red in Europe, with > 10 °C above normal over France.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
An amazing workshop with plenty of novel and exciting new research. Very timely research, given the ongoing heatwave. Thank you very much @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social, @gabihegerl.bsky.social and Jack Scheff for organizing it.
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Mike Byrne @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Excited to host the Land-Climate Workshop @uniofstandrews.bsky.social this week! Looking forward to ~40 talks + posters on cutting-edge research questions spanning wildfires, drought, freshwater availability, monsoons, extreme weather and much more! @earthscista.bsky.social @gabihegerl.bsky.social
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Lisa Thalheimer, DPhil @lisathalheimer.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Lead by Sabine Undorf, this review synthesizes the latest opportunities and guard rails of impact attribution.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Maybe we could encourage @edhawkins.org and @vikkithompson.bsky.social to look into it as part of their ReBASE project at some point in the future.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Sorry for the brusque response I did not mean to sound dismissive. Hunga Tonga is often used to distract from the role of anthropogenic climate change. Jucker's paper is very valuable but aimed at isolating only the water vapour effect and neglecting other aspects. The cited report used all evidence
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Would be interesting to do a storyline / nudged run translating 1921 into present-day or near-future climate.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Yes, I had the same thought. Looks like decreasing variance. Maybe due to the mechanism proposed by J Screen (see below) or because springs moved from being half snow-covered, half snow-free to mostly snow free? Have you looked into this @mikarantane.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/ncl...
nature.com
Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid- to high-latitudes - Nature Climate Change
Arctic amplification is thought to be altering the polar jet stream and increasing Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude temperature variability. This study investigates cold extremes in the mid-latitudes ...
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
No it's not ignored but turned out to be irrelevant www.wcrp-climate.org/news/wcrp-ne... Key findings of the major community report: - Surface cooling (~0.05°C) was indistinguishable from natural variability - 2023–2024 record temperatures were *not* caused by the eruption
wcrp-climate.org
Available now! International Report on the Global Atmospheric Impacts of the 2022 Hunga Volcano Eruption
This call invites the community to nominate candidates (including self-nomination) to become a member of the new Earth System Modelling and Observations (ESMO) Infrastructure Panel (WIP).
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
Yet another example of record-shattering heat with both day- and nighttime records being broken by large margins. A distinct signal of the high warming rate.
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Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 14/05/2026
To keep track of the rapidly growing field of attribution research, Carbon Brief has mapped every published study on how climate change has influenced extreme weather. Explore the interactive map here ⬇️ interactive.carbonbrief.org/attribution-...
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World Weather Attribution @wwattribution.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
NEW: Players and fans face increased heat danger at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, since USA '94. Our results show that from Miami to Kansas City, climate change is increasing the risk of playing the World Cup in much of the northern hemisphere during summer. (1/2)
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
We show that for this particular event the rainfall is incredible sensitive to the dynamics, and future dynamical changes may outweigh thermodynamics in a warmer world, reducing the rainfall. 🌧️🌧️🌧️ rdcu.be/fh2YW
rdcu.be
The role of subtle dynamical changes in the European extreme rainfall of July 2021
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Extreme rainfall will become more frequent and intense in a warmer climate, however not every event follows the general trend In our new study we show the Ahr floods of 2021 may have been the perfect storm: rdcu.be/fh2YW @erichfischer.bsky.social @knmi.nl @ivm-vu-amsterdam.bsky.social
Altenahr's main square after the flooding in July 2021 (from https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/10/german-valley-swept-away-cemeteries-gave-up-their-dead)
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Uncertain dynamic response of mid-latitude winter precipitation New @nature.com paper led by Lei Gu with Dominik Schumacher, @sebastian-sippel.bsky.social, Istvan Dunkl, @robinnoyelle.bsky.social, Jitendra Singh, Lorenzo Pierini, @retoknutti.bsky.social and @erichfischer.bsky.social @ethz.ch
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Excellent idea @mikarantane.bsky.social . We currently have a setup that would be very well suited to test this in a coupled model, (a) whether it can even reproduce this and (b) what the impacts may look like. We will think about it, great idea.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Honored and excited to contribute to the important work of @carbonbrief.org as a contributing editor
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Pedram Hassanzadeh @pedramh.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan extremes? We report @pnas.org that the answer is NO for global gray swans, YES for regional ones: AI models can't extrapolate from weaker events but can learn from similar events in other regions during training! doi.org/10.1073/pnas...
doi.org
Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical cyclones? | PNAS
Predicting gray swan weather extremes, which are possible but so rare that they are absent from the training dataset, is a major concern for AI wea...
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Almost-global-average sea-surface temperatures are creeping up to record levels again and we’re still in La Niña (according to NOAA). There’s some uncertainty though as you can see from these two datasets..
Graph of daily sea surface temperature averaged from 60°S to 60°N. 2026 has just edged into record territory. Data from NOAA OISST v2.1Graph of daily sea surface temperature averaged from 60°S to 60°N. 2026 has just edged into record territory. Data from ERA5.
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Paulo Ceppi @pauloceppi.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Cloudiness has been declining globally for the last two decades. Why is this and how does it matter for global warming? Read our new article to find out! 👇 doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-4153-2026 And see the @carbonbrief.org post summarising the key findings buff.ly/oLxKacO
doi.org
Emerging low-cloud feedback and adjustment in global satellite observations
Abstract. From mid-2003 to mid-2024, a global decrease in low-cloud amount enhanced the absorption of solar radiation by 0.22±0.07 W m−2 per decade (±1σ range), accelerating the energy imbalance trend...
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Excellent summary on our study in @nature.com by @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org (@carbonbrief.org) with comments from Rowan Sutton, Karen McKinnon and @robertvautard.bsky.social www.carbonbrief.org/limiting-glo...
carbonbrief.org
Limiting global warming to 2C would not ‘rule out’ extreme impacts - Carbon Brief
Limiting warming to 2C above pre-industrial temperatures may not be enough to prevent “extreme global climate outcomes”.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Fair point. We argue it is often perceived as moderate warming but our paper suggests that indeed the regional changes could well be extremely severe.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Extreme global climate outcomes are possible even at 2°C of warming In our new Nature study led by @bevacquae.bsky.social with Jakob Zscheischler and @janasillmann.bsky.social, we show that even moderate warming of 2°C could lead to extreme outcomes. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes - Nature
Extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2 °C warming and may turn out to be more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3 °C or 4 °C warming.
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Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
The current heatwave in the US Southwest is utterly destroying many records for this time of year. Phoenix, Arizona has ~90 years of daily temperature data, and yet recent temperatures beat the previous March record by 5 °F (2.8 °C), and would actually tie the record for April.
Plot wrapping daily maximum temperature history for Phoenix, Arizona for every year since 1933, and showing the anomalously high temperatures in 2026.
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 21/03/2026
Honestly, this historic heat dome across the West is really hard to put into words for me. Temperatures over 110°F (43°C) in March, shattering all-time monthly records on multiple consecutive days, and not just by a little. ➡️ I can confirm this is human-caused climate change. polarwx.com/models/
Map of the lower 48 United States showing 0.25° GFS run from 18z on 20 March 2026. The variable is the 500 hPa geopotential height percentile rank considering ERA5. There is a record-breaking ridge across the Western U.S.
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Peter Thorne @peterthorne.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
New discussion paper just dropped that’s taken shall we say a little work to get this far … essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... please be kind. Not on an at all sensitive topic in the slightest.
essd.copernicus.org
How well can we quantify when 1.5 °C of global warming has been exceeded?
Abstract. Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement agreed to limit the long-term increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to keep temperatures below 1.5 °C relative to p...
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