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John Kennedy

@micefearboggis.bsky.social
3.5K followers 3.4K following 2.3K posts

Occasional climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian, science anti-communicator. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it’s a disclaimer. He/him. www.jkclimate.fr

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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Retraction watch watching the retraction of a paper. Though we still don't know quite how the retraction happened, that it did happen is a small win. retractionwatch.com/2026/10/02/p...
retractionwatch.com
‘Hot mess’ paper questioning CO2 and climate change gets retracted
The paper refers to air temperature data as “obtained by NASA from satellites” and claims the main areas of warming depicted in this figure do “not fit in with the main industrial…
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Kris Karnauskas @oceansclimatecu.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
El Niño... wait for it! With observations updated through September. Long-term observations (HadISST back to 1870, gray) Satellite record (OIv2 back to 1982, black) Dynamical model ensemble mean from the IRI plume (red).
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Ok comms gurus… if we’re talking about ocean heat content and earth’s energy imbalance which units are preferable: ZJ and ZJ per year or W/m²year and W/m². Or something else. Or putting everything in terms of some energy equivalent like how much energy humans use each year.
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Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I’ve updated the long-running (starts 1866) CRU Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). This lets us compare the currently developing El Niño with earlier events including 1877-78. 2026 has developed very quickly, similar to the 1997-98 one. Thick line is 3-month running mean, with y-axis reversed.
1866-present timeseries of Climatic Research Unit SOI with some major El Niño events marked.
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Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
New version of the HadCRUT global temperature dataset released @colinmorice.bsky.social HadCRUT5.2 uses HadSST4.2 (with improved adjustments for SST biases during 1933-1961) and CRUTEM5.2 (with updates to stations in China, USA and Canada). Here is the difference from the previous version 5.1
Alt text: Timeseries from 1850 to 2026 of global average temperature from HadCRUT versions 5.1 and 5.2 and their difference.
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Sarah Andersen @sarahseeandersen.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The image is of a four panel comic.
In the first panel we see Sarah, the protagonist, next to a stick figure labeled “AI”. The stick figure says, “my outputs look just like yours now.”
The second panel zooms in on Sarah’s face. Above her we see text reading “I think”.
The third panel zooms in closer on Sarah’s face. Text above her reads “you missed”.
The fourth panel shows Sarah drawing happily in a sunlit room. The text above her reads “the point”.
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Mindy Weisberger @laminda.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Please join me in appreciating how these coffee grounds vaguely resemble a fanged cyclops demon fish, if you are so moved feel free to offer your thoughts on what this predicts for my future
A hand holds up a nearly-empty coffee cup, showing grounds at the bottom. They form a shape resembling a weird deep-sea fish with long fangs and one enormous eye.
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World Meteorological Organization @wmo-global.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Rivers across the globe in 2025 had one of the driest years in more than 3 decades. The WMO Global #StateOfWater Report 2025 shows a continuation of the long-term decline in Earth’s freshwater storage and in glacier retreat. 🔴 OUT NOW: bit.ly/WMOStateOfWater2025pr
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
This paper I blogged on yonks ago - “Comparison of Recently Proposed Causes of Climate Change” - has now been retracted. diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2023/08/17/y...
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com
Yet another eminent scientist
MDPI journals have become a clearing house for the kind of nonsense you can’t peddle through a reputable journal. Received on 23 June and published on the 3 August, the latest accretion of ba…
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
This paper I blogged on yonks ago - “Comparison of Recently Proposed Causes of Climate Change” - has now been retracted. diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2023/08/17/y...
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com
Yet another eminent scientist
MDPI journals have become a clearing house for the kind of nonsense you can’t peddle through a reputable journal. Received on 23 June and published on the 3 August, the latest accretion of ba…
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Never, and I mean never, open with never, and I mean never, open with never, and I mean never, open with never, and I mean never, open with never, and I mean never, open with never, and I mean never, open with never, and I mean never, open with never, and I mean never, open with never, and I mean ne
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Pulpito
Photo of a yellow crocheted octopus of about the same size as the thumbnail of the hand holding it.
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Matt Bors @mattbors.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
It was exactly ten years ago today, on my 33rd birthday, that I posted this comic online.
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Pulpito
Photo of a yellow crocheted octopus of about the same size as the thumbnail of the hand holding it.
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Ruth Mottram @ruthmottram.eurosky.social · 12/09/2026
Some light weekend reading?
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Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · 10/09/2026
8 years ago, I tweeted side-by-side maps from NASA GISS showing global temperatures in 1976 and 2018 – both hot summers in the UK. It subsequently went viral and was printed in the Daily Mail! The 2026 version is stark. Two locally extreme summers separated by 50 years of global climate change.
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Brilliant blog post from @ruthmottram.eurosky.social. It's got science galore in all its wonderful messy surprising glory. Also it's one of the few posts you will read that will give you your recommended daily allowance of the word mélange. sternaparadisaea.net/2026/09/09/a...
sternaparadisaea.net
A jumble of broken ice, and what it means for Greenland’s calving glaciers.
Ice mélange — sometimes known as sikussaq in Greenlandic — is that chaotic jumble of icebergs, bergy bits and sea water that sits in front of marine-terminating glaciers. It’s been described …
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Brilliant blog post from @ruthmottram.eurosky.social. It's got science galore in all its wonderful messy surprising glory. Also it's one of the few posts you will read that will give you your recommended daily allowance of the word mélange. sternaparadisaea.net/2026/09/09/a...
sternaparadisaea.net
A jumble of broken ice, and what it means for Greenland’s calving glaciers.
Ice mélange — sometimes known as sikussaq in Greenlandic — is that chaotic jumble of icebergs, bergy bits and sea water that sits in front of marine-terminating glaciers. It’s been described …
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Ruth Mottram @ruthmottram.eurosky.social · 09/09/2026
Publication day! Our finalised paper on melange processes at Greenland glacier fronts is out now! I wrote about what we did, what we found and what it means for Greenland ice sheet retreat..
sternaparadisaea.net
A jumble of broken ice, and what it means for Greenland’s calving glaciers.
Ice mélange — sometimes known as sikussaq in Greenlandic — is that chaotic jumble of icebergs, bergy bits and sea water that sits in front of marine-terminating glaciers. It’s been described …
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
I will believe a machine is thinking when halfway through a proof of the Riemann Hypothesis, it writes, “hang on. Hangonhangonhangon…” then “BUY MILK” and underlines it twice.
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Bruce Calvert @brucettcalvert.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
The Berkeley Earth version 2 paper is now in preprint. The new version is 0.25° resolution and incorporates ERA5-based spatial patterns. I was very happy to contribute to this paper, including graphs and comparisons with other datasets. essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
essd.copernicus.org
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature – High-Resolution (BEST-HR): a 0.25° Global Gridded Temperature Data Set for Climate Monitoring
Abstract. We present version 2 of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset, a global observational temperature record that now features enhanced spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) and a new regr...
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Kevin Anchukaitis @thirstygecko.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
'Indices beguile. They take something messy and incomprehensible like the climate and reduce it to a one dimensional problem ... But, an index can’t capture the full range of behaviour which is generally messy and incomprehensible because the whole idea of indices is reductive.'
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Oscillating blobs and the climatological wiggle waggle diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2023/03/16/o...
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com
Oscillating blobs and the climatological wiggle waggle
Werb, B. E., & Rudnick, D. L. (2023). Remarkable changes in the dominant modes of north Pacific sea surface temperature. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2022GL101078…
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Oscillating blobs and the climatological wiggle waggle diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2023/03/16/o...
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com
Oscillating blobs and the climatological wiggle waggle
Werb, B. E., & Rudnick, D. L. (2023). Remarkable changes in the dominant modes of north Pacific sea surface temperature. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2022GL101078…
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Berna Devezer @devezer.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
read-aloud session before submission. fascinating how it helps detect typos, errors, redundancies, inconsistencies, and improve the writing. what the eyes don't see, the ears will always catch.
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Can we have a “quiet sympathy” button?
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John Mosby @theregoestheday.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
So, my review. The Whisper Man film significantly streamlines the book, but is still worth you 'Netflix and chilling' with it this weekend... CHAOTIC NEUTRAL... NETFLIX's streamlined 'THE WHISPER MAN' adaptation won't be Silenced... chaotic-neutral.online/2026/08/28/n...
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NJ @tashasmom.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
August 28th - The Whisperman🤫😳 #Netflix #Thriller DeNiro, Adam Scott … Mark your calendars 🗓️ Trailer: youtu.be/ZHRR-1CKYIQ?...
youtu.be
The Whisper Man | Official Trailer | Netflix
YouTube video by Netflix
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Interesting blogpost on what it might take (and why) to make headway on moderately complex statistical problems like analysis and mapping of environmental variables. Many climate dataset papers have fewer than 10 authors and only a few of those involved will have been doing data analysis.
Screen cap with highlighted text saying “For some specific problems, like malaria mapping, the solution is to have big teams, 10 data analysts, all working on the same overall problem.”
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Stats For Bios @statsforbios.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Reread my blog post on the biggest problem in statistics. On re-read, I still don't think it is terrible (other than the typos and things). So I'll repost. timcdlucas.github.io/the-biggest-...
timcdlucas.github.io
The Biggest Problem In Statistics
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Interesting blogpost on what it might take (and why) to make headway on moderately complex statistical problems like analysis and mapping of environmental variables. Many climate dataset papers have fewer than 10 authors and only a few of those involved will have been doing data analysis.
Screen cap with highlighted text saying “For some specific problems, like malaria mapping, the solution is to have big teams, 10 data analysts, all working on the same overall problem.”
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Dr. Elizabeth Sawin @bethsawin.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
I thing I notice in conversations about LLMs is that some people are arguing for how it is useful to them/their work while other people are thinking about the consequence of wide-spread adoption.
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Amy Hoy @amyhoy.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
“Individuals aren’t naturally paid-up members of the human race, except biologically. They need to be bounced around by the Brownian motion of society, which is a mechanism by which human beings constantly remind one another that they are… well… human beings.” - Terry Pratchett, Men at Arms
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
I am totally a real person with my 25k followers (despite only ever reposting) and following 117k accounts.
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Andrew Dessler @andrewdessler.com · 17/08/2026
if you want to understand the physical processes behind El Niño, watch this short video from the UK Met Office. www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPA-...
youtube.com
El Nino - What is it?
YouTube video by Met Office - UK Weather
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
All else being equal even a simple increase in the mean of the temperature distribution will lead to extreme heat above a particular threshold that's more frequent, more intense, lasts longer and covers a wider area (you'll have to imagine that third dimension).
Schematic titled "warming increases the intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme heat" which shows a temperature trace as a red line in three different climates (COLD climate, CURRENT climate and HOT climate) which only differ in that each one is warmer than the last by a constant offset. A fixed baseline and heatwave threshold are also shown as horizontal lines and these do not change. Areas that exceed the heatwave threshold are shaded pink. The pink shaded area is larger in the current climate than in the cold climate and smaller than in the hot climate. In the cold climate an annotation points to a single isolated pink-shaded heatwave and says "isolated heatwave". In the current climate an annotation points to three distinct heatwaves and says "more frequent, long heatwaves". Finally in the hot climate an annotation says "duration and frequency continue to increase" and "isolated cooler period" for there is only one short period that is not now classified as a heatwave.
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
People who call the Banach-Tarski theorem a “paradox” have never cut up a head of cabbage or properly brushed a cat.
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
What the hell, Excel? What did I click?
A graph from Excel which has lots of lines on it that are all close together - showing global temperatures, although that's not important. What is important is that for some reason Excel has changed the background to charcoal black and the lines are salmon coloured and for some reason, best known to Excel, appear to glow like no salmon ever did. The title of the graph is what the hell Excel?
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
All else being equal even a simple increase in the mean of the temperature distribution will lead to extreme heat above a particular threshold that's more frequent, more intense, lasts longer and covers a wider area (you'll have to imagine that third dimension).
Schematic titled "warming increases the intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme heat" which shows a temperature trace as a red line in three different climates (COLD climate, CURRENT climate and HOT climate) which only differ in that each one is warmer than the last by a constant offset. A fixed baseline and heatwave threshold are also shown as horizontal lines and these do not change. Areas that exceed the heatwave threshold are shaded pink. The pink shaded area is larger in the current climate than in the cold climate and smaller than in the hot climate. In the cold climate an annotation points to a single isolated pink-shaded heatwave and says "isolated heatwave". In the current climate an annotation points to three distinct heatwaves and says "more frequent, long heatwaves". Finally in the hot climate an annotation says "duration and frequency continue to increase" and "isolated cooler period" for there is only one short period that is not now classified as a heatwave.
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
What is this supposed to be illustrating?
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Was July 202X the warmest July on record? History doesn't repeat itself, but It often rhymes. diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2024/08/13/p...
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com
Photofinish
Was the global average temperature for July 2024 the warmest July on record? It’s a simple question to ask, but much harder to answer.
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Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
My entry into the warmest year discourse... Over the years, I've used a couple of methods to estimate annual mean anomalies before they happen - using projected ENSO signals at the end of the previous year, or just from the relationship between the YTD data and the final annual average.
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
What just happened?
Graph showing daily Antarctic sea ice extent from January to December. Years from 1979 to 2025 are shown in grey. The 1991-2020 average is shown in dark grey and 2026 is shown in dark blue. 2026 which was making its way steadily to the annual max (usually around September or October) has taken a recent nose dive.
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
I liked Affinity (Designer and the rest) - I even paid for it - but now to start it up I get redirected to a website to login to a piece of software stored and run on my own computer. And then it takes five minutes to install updates. What happened?
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
It's striking how similar are the patterns of the highest and lowest temperature anomalies in the northern hemisphere in June 1976 and June 2026 and also how much warmer 2026 is overall. Not an original idea, but unusually clear example of how a similar weather pattern is much warmer now than then.
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Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 10/08/2026
The BAMS State of the Climate report for 2025, published today, shows that the global climate set several new records, including atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, the loss of glacial ice from mountain regions, and the dryness of global soils. Read more ⬇️ buff.ly/tkbuQdS
Met Office news release graphic showing close-up cracked, drought-stricken earth. Text reads: “News Release, 10 August 2026. Rising greenhouse gas concentrations lead to ice loss and drying soils.” The Met Office logo appears in the top left corner.
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American Meteorological Society @ametsoc.org · 10/08/2026
🚨 The 2025 #BulletinAMS State of the Climate report is here, and the findings are critical. Earth’s greenhouse gas concentrations were the highest on record and record temperatures were observed across the globe. Read here: ametsoc.org/soc #StateoftheClimate2025
An artist’s rendering of NOAA’s GOES-19 satellite (formerly known as GOES-U), operating in orbit above Earth as GOES-East. The text overlaying the background image reads, “State of the Climate in 2025; Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the Meteorological Society; Vol. 107, No. 8, August 2026”. (Credit: NOAA/NASA.)
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
It's striking how similar are the patterns of the highest and lowest temperature anomalies in the northern hemisphere in June 1976 and June 2026 and also how much warmer 2026 is overall. Not an original idea, but unusually clear example of how a similar weather pattern is much warmer now than then.
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Choosing the Right Sea Surface Temperature Datasets: Benchmarking and Guidance for Climate Applications An important and useful paper led by Duo Chan. journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org
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John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
When my grandad was cremated we left the crematorium in the slow black cars. We drove slowly past the bins - for this sad day was also bin day - and thus had time to appreciate that stencilled on each one was the command “no hot ashes”.
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