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Vikki Thompson

@vikkithompson.bsky.social
557 followers 209 following 67 posts

Climate scientist at the University of Edinburgh. Researching weather and climate extremes. Climate modelling, statistics, attribution.

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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
📣Calling all Scotland-based climate scientists: Abstract submission for the second annual Scottish Climate Science Network Workshop extended - submit by 9th October! forms.office.com/e/brhjAJ0WEK
Advertisement for: 2nd Scottish Climate Science Network Workshop. 10th-11th December EFI Edinburgh. The event will build on last year's successful event bringing together climate scientists working across Scottish institutes. We welcome abstracts on all aspects of climate dynamics. An afternoon subevent on Climate Service for Scotland, including a stakeholder panel, is planned. Abstract deadline: 9th October 2026.
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
🚴‍♂️🌧️ Pro cycling is once again disrupted by extreme weather, this time torrential hail stopped the #Vuelta today. High resolution models suggest that #ClimateChange increases the likelihood of very large hail in southern Europe. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Image of Wout van Aert heading for cover with a thick coating of hail covering the ground. (Getty Images)
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Climate change is increasing the intensity of extreme rain, and using multiple methods can increase our confidence in this. We've been working on a new storyline technique:
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Copernicus ECMWF @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
📉 #TourDeFrance impacted by climate change (July temperatures in France) – @vikkithompson.bsky.social 2️⃣ bsky.app/profile/vikk... ⬇️
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
🚴‍♂️Today #TourDeFrance races into #Paris to finish this years' edition. We have seen stages shortened due to extreme heat and wildfire – a direct impact of #ClimateChange 🧵1/4
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
🚴‍♂️Today #TourDeFrance races into #Paris to finish this years' edition. We have seen stages shortened due to extreme heat and wildfire – a direct impact of #ClimateChange 🧵1/4
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
🔥🥵🔥This summer the UK is experiencing unprecedented wildfires - many near urban areas. Following the heatwave of 2022 we showed climate change is leading to increasing fire weather in the UK. doi.org/10.1002/cli2... @hcbloomfield19.bsky.social @nathanaelmelia.bsky.social @climatedann.bsky.social
doi.org
Detecting Rising Wildfire Risks for South East England
In July 2022 southeast England experienced a record breaking heatwave and unprecedented wildfires in urban areas. We investigate fire weather trends since 1960 in southeast England using a large ense...
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
⛈️ Edinburgh, June 2026 ⛈️ As foretold by UKCP18 and others, we are seeing an increase in extreme heat and heavy rainfall in summer, and feeling the impacts of both.
Flooded street in Edinburgh
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
📣Calling all Scotland-based climate scientists: Abstract submission for the second annual Scottish Climate Science Network Workshop now open! forms.office.com/e/brhjAJ0WEK
Poster: 2nd Scottish Climate Science Network Workshop, 10-11 December. ECCI Edinburgh. 'This event will build on last year's successful event bringing together climate scientists working across Scottish institutes. We welcome abstracts on all aspects of climate dynamics. An afternoon sub-event on Climate Services for Scotland, including a stakeholder panel, is planned. We welcome abstracts on Scottish-relevant weather and climate research for within this session. Abstract Deadline 25th September 2026
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National Centre for Atmospheric Science @ncas-uk.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
What happens if you replay real weather from 1903 and “turn up the heat”? While temperatures rise across the board, the most noticeable increases occur during cold snaps and warm spells. ncas.ac.uk/turning-up-t... #earth-science #SciComm 🧪
ncas.ac.uk
What would 1903 weather look like today under climate change? - NCAS
Climate scientists are now replaying the past to predict the future, to show how everyday weather could feel in a warmer world.
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Ruari Rhodes @ruarirhodes.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
It’s London Climate Action Week! And how appropriate that a major heatwave is settling in across much of Europe. For most of us, an uncomfortable inconvenience. For the vulnerable, a severe health risk. And for everyone, a reminder that climate change is already here. #LCAW2026
A temperature map of the UK from the Met office, showing temperatures as high as 39 Celsius across southern England on Wednesday.
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Successive record-breaking European heatwaves in the same summer - as we are experiencing now - are exactly what @drlaurasuarez.bsky.social shows could happen: www.nature.com/articles/s43...
nature.com
Worst-case European heat storylines generated using ensemble boosting - Communications Earth & Environment
Worst-case European heatwaves occur predominantly after another extreme heatwave, compounding danger to ecosystems, according to analyses of worst-case Earth system model simulations.
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
In Edinburgh this weekend? Why not come along to #PeopleFest I'm speaking at an event where we will consider, in this changing climate, how catastrophe and the mundane interwoven and balanced against each other in our daily lives. Register for free here: shorturl.at/aqutE
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 13/05/2026
Imagine the same synoptic weather patterns occurred in a warmer world. How would our experience of the weather be different? Warmer? Yes Wetter? Only on the wettest 10% of days Everyday weather in a warmer world by Thomas et al.: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
Changed temperature and rainfall in an example month in Central England
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Extreme rainfall will become more frequent and intense in a warmer climate, however not every event follows the general trend In our new study we show the Ahr floods of 2021 may have been the perfect storm: rdcu.be/fh2YW @erichfischer.bsky.social @knmi.nl @ivm-vu-amsterdam.bsky.social
Altenahr's main square after the flooding in July 2021 (from https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/10/german-valley-swept-away-cemeteries-gave-up-their-dead)
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Comparing multiple attribution methods increases confidence in conclusions - we need all the puzzle pieces to see the full picture 🧩🌀☀️🌧️🧩 Hear more about the many different weather and climate #attribution methods at #EGU26 today, including Shirin Ermis' talk on method comparisons, 1045 in room F1
A puzzle of Storm Babet, with a piece missing
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Where is most susceptible to record breaking humid heat? 🥵🌡️🔥 Today at #EGU26, @regclimo.bsky.social will tell you, room 2.24 from 1400. @drlaurasuarez.bsky.social @karinvdwiel.bsky.social Paper: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Fig 2a from https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025AV001963 Regional susceptibility to record-breaking humid heat from ERA5 and GCM perspectives, and its relationship to a key impact-relevant threshold. In (a), red coloration (columns of color table) corresponds to the current Tw record's inferred ERA5 annual exceedance probability. Green coloration (rows of color table) corresponds to the fraction of ensemble members, averaged across LEs, which contain at least one Tw event outside a GEV fit of that model's annual-maximum distribution, also excluding the largest value and for a GMST of +1°C.
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
How would extreme events differ in warmer or cooler climates? Initial results from our project ReBASE are being shown at #EGU26 this afternoon. Catch Rhidian Thomas at his poster, X5.151 from 1615. ed-hawkins.github.io/ReBASE/resul...
Scientific poster: https://ed-hawkins.github.io/ReBASE/results/EGU_2026_ReBASE_poster.pdf
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
This morning at #EGU26 @tamarahappe.bsky.social is presenting our work on operational multi-method #attriibution. Chat to her at poster X3.56 from 10.45! vikki-thompson.github.io/images/EGU26...
Scientific Poster: https://vikki-thompson.github.io/images/EGU26_poster_Happ%C3%A9.pdf
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Last day to submit an abstract to EMS...
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
At least one person is super excited about the prospect of counterfactual reanalysis-based storylines! Discussing many potential uses within the energy sector today 🌬️☀️⚡ vikki-thompson.github.io/images/ReBAS...
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Laura Suarez-Gutierrez @drlaurasuarez.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Join us at the #EMS26, the European Meteorological Society meeting this September in Utrecht for our session on high-impact extremes! 📍 UP3.7. High-impact climate extremes: physical understanding, storylines, impacts and projections lnkd.in/efWVVCYX Abstract submission deadline is 27th of March.
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Working on impact attribution of extreme weather events? Submit to our session at the EMS Annual Meeting in Utrecht in September! meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EMS2026/sess... @tamarahappe.bsky.social @sannemuis.bsky.social
Advertisement poster for EMS Annual Meeting session. Text: 'Attribution of extreme weather events and their impacts (UP1). Abstract deadline March 27th. Convened by Tamara Happe, Vikki Thompson. Paolo Scussolini, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Sanne Muis, and Doris Vertegaal.
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
⚡9 days left to submit your #EGU26 abstract, if you work on weather and climate hazards consider our session: www.egu26.eu/session/56049 @tamarahappe.bsky.social @yinglintian.bsky.social @kornhuber.bsky.social @karinvdwiel.bsky.social @regclimo.bsky.social
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 21/11/2025
Two exciting postdoc positions available! Historical windstorms - working with two insurance companies to explore UK wind risks: jobs.reading.ac.uk/Job/JobDetai... Extreme event storylines - working as part of a EU collaboration on event attribution: jobs.reading.ac.uk/Job/JobDetai...
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
Where have the greatest humid heat extremes been observed? Where is statistically likely to see unprecedented extremes? New study led by @regclimo.bsky.social investigates:
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
Can simple circulation analogues detect observed changes in extreme rainfall? In many cases, no. Rainfall is too complex and circulation alone cannot predict it. 🧵1/2 🌧️ New paper 🌧️ iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
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Yinglin Tian @yinglintian.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
We are very delighted to have @karinvdwiel.bsky.social and @regclimo.bsky.social as invited speakers in our #EGU26 session on NH11.2 Future Changes in Weather and Climate Hazards! Consider to present your fantastic work with us!! @nh.egu.eu @pik-potsdam.bsky.social
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Looking for a #PhD in #ClimateExtremes? We are advertising a project attributing causes of recent #droughts using counter-factual storylines. Based in #Edinburgh, working with Andrew Schurer, me, @gabihegerl.bsky.social, & @edhawkins.org tinyurl.com/5n7b52fr
Droughts cause a wide range of impacts - this image shows a dry riverbed in France.
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
☀️🌧️ Extreme weather events are increasing 🌀🌤 Our new paper discusses the range of extreme weather attribution methods available and how we should be combining them to improve confidence in our attribution statements with co-authors: @marylouathanase.bsky.social & Shirin Ermis doi.org/10.1002/wea....
rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
The need for multi‐method extreme event attribution
Over the past 20 years, extreme event attribution has developed rapidly, providing a wide range of methods to attribute weather events – from unconditioned probabilistic to strongly conditioned story...
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
👻🎃 It's that time of year again, time to start thinking about #EGU26! 🔥🌧️🌀 Our session on Future Changes in Weather and Climate Hazards is now open for abstract submissions 🔥🌧️🌀 meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio... @tamarahappe.bsky.social @yinglintian.bsky.social @kornhuber.bsky.social
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Experiencing extreme heat first hand today in Cantabria, and the 5 year old is enjoying quizzing me on a topic I am happy to discuss in detail - but I'm not sure if these could be fire clouds on the horizon?
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Madeleine Cuff @tinymaddie.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
Europe's current climate could produce a 'mega heatwave', feat. more than a month of +40C temps & intense drought Extra scary fact: The worst-case heatwaves occur predominantly after another extreme heatwave. In other words, rolling waves of deadly heat www.newscientist.com/article/2491...
newscientist.com
Europe could face weeks of 40°C heat in current worst-case scenario
A perfect storm of conditions priming the atmosphere for extreme heat could result in devastating droughts and deadly temperatures lasting for weeks across Europe
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 05/08/2025
This week marks my last few days working at KNMI, after a fantastic few years exploring new methods with amazing colleagues and collaborators it's time for the next challenge. First, a holiday ☀️⛰️🚴‍♂️
My workplace for the past few years: KNMI radar tower and offices
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KNMI @knmi.nl · 08/07/2025
Nieuw onderzoek laat zien dat de overstromingen in Limburg in 2021 nog veel ernstiger hadden kunnen zijn. Als het weer nét iets anders was verlopen, hadden de buien langer kunnen duren of op een andere plek kunnen vallen, met mogelijk grotere impact. 🔗 www.knmi.nl/over-het-knm...
Mechelen overstroming
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
📣 New paper: 💧💧💧 In July 2021 record breaking rainfall hit western Europe, we use ensemble boosting to explore different plausible storylines. These show it could have rained for longer, or over a larger area, or in a different place. Are we prepared? doi.org/10.1038/s432...
Showing the rainfall of 14th July 2021 (upper left) and 5 alternative scenarios derived from a climate model, conditioned to the atmospheric circulation patterns of the observed event.
Similar to fig.6 of https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02386-y
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Last night, for the second night running, temperatures didn't drop below 20°C in Utrecht 🇳🇱. 🥵🌃🌡️ Due to human activity the chances of such heat are increasing, taking us ever closer to the story told in: www.unseenheat.com @stichtingcas.bsky.social @timokelder.bsky.social
unseenheat.com
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
🌡️☀️ It is hot in Europe this week – but how much hotter would it be in the future? Using a weather model we can simulate tomorrow’s weather in a warmer climate. Tomorrow Paris is forecast to reach 37°C, in a world 1.5°C warmer the same weather patterns could lead to temperatures over 40°C.
Map of European daily maximum temperatures for (1st July 2025) tomorrow's weather in (left) a present day climate and (right) a 1.5K warmer climate.
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
#ShowYourStripes day on a #parkrun day made it easy to pick out a shirt. Climate change impacts sports. Extreme heat, happening increasingly often, forces events to adjust or cancel with little notice. Climate change impacts everyone.
A selfie at parkrun wearing a climate striped tshirt
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
🌧️🌍💧 Our new paper, led by Geert Lenderink, shows recent European extreme rainfall events have localised climate change responses beyond the expected Clausius-Clapeyron rate – potentially enhancing flash floods in a warmer climate. Read it here: doi.org/10.1016/j.wa... @hayleyjfowler.bsky.social
doi.org
Redirecting
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
After a fantastic set of oral presentations the posters sessions in hall X3 now, perfect way to end your #EGU25!
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
Coming up soon at #EGU25, come along to chat about event attribution at lunchtime in room 2.43
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
Today we present an online tool for identifying circulation analogues, now available on Climate Explorer. I'll be at my #EGU25 poster, at X5.171, from 1615 (or after 1800 with my small assistant). climexp.knmi.nl/analoguesfor...
Science poster, available online: https://vikki-thompson.github.io/images/EGU25_poster_thompson.pdf

Photo also features a 5 year old.
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
At #EGU25 this morning, hear me talk about ensemble boosting of extreme rainfall using only the thousand most common English words - PICO spot 3 at 11.08
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
I'm at #EGU25 this week, and today at 1400 I'll be discussing the western European July 2021 extreme rain in this session:
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Marylou Athanase @marylouathanase.bsky.social · 27/04/2025
If you are attending #EGU25 and interested in the attribution of #climate extremes: consider joining our networking session on Friday noon! We will exchange on existing methods, their strengths, and how to compare them: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio... W/ @vikkithompson.bsky.social
Leaflet of the EGU25 splinter meeting.

Title: Networking session: comparing methods for extreme event attribution.
Illustrations: plots from various attribution methods.

Time and location: Friday 02.05, 12h45-13h45, room 2.43.
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
Are you interested in extreme event attribution and attending #EGU25? Come along to our networking session to discuss the strengths and challenges of different methods. meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio... @marylouathanase.bsky.social
Poster, text: Networking Session: Comparing methods for extreme event attribution. Conveners: Vikki Thompson, Shirin Ermis, and Marylou Athanase. EGU General Assembly 2025. Friday 12.45-13.45 in room 2.43. Three images of extreme event attribution techniques. QR code links to https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/session/55165
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
Super excited to be presenting our ensemble boosting work, 'Imagine rain falling in a different place', in this session:
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
Once again, I am taking my daughter to #EGU25. She has been busy making extreme weather posters 'just like mama'. Any other (ideally english/dutch speaking) ~5 yr olds booked into the childcare, who might fancy some lunchtime picnics?
Photo of me and my daughter outside the EGU General Assembly in 2022
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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
Planning your #EGU25 travel? If you're interested in extreme event attribution, make sure to stay until Friday to come along to our networking session to discuss the value of multiple methods. @marylouathanase.bsky.social
Poster, text: Networking Session: Comparing methods for extreme event attribution. Conveners: Vikki Thompson, Shirin Ermis, and Marylou Athanase. EGU General Assembly 2025. Friday 12.45-13.45 in room 2.43. Three images of extreme event attribution techniques. QR code links to https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/session/55165
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