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Tim Osborn

@timosbornclim.bsky.social
2.6K followers 510 following 401 posts

Climate variability and change | Professor of Climate Science & Director of Climatic Research Unit | UEA | Views expressed here are my own, not UEA's

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Reposted by Tim Osborn
MetJam @metjam.co.uk · 30/09/2026
A minimum of 18.8ºC at the University of Reading Atmospheric Observatory this morning is well above the previous record (+16.7ºC) for the 30th of September. It is the second-warmest September night on record. The record from 1949 of 20.3ºC on the 5th of September still stands.
Scatter plot of every September daily minimum temperature at Reading since 1908, plotted by day of the month and coloured from blue (below the 1991–2020 average) to red (above it). Most minima fall between 4°C and 16°C, and a dashed line shows the average easing from about 11°C at the start of the month to about 10°C by the 30th. A red star marks 30 September 2026 at 18.8°C, the second-highest September minimum on record, behind 20.3°C on 5 September 1949, and 2.1°C above the previous 30 September record of 16.7°C from 1923.
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Andrew Dessler @andrewdessler.com · 29/09/2026
In Texas, the State is removing climate change courses from the core curriculum. They have decided that climate change is just too dangerous to teach the students. This is indoctrination. I wrote an oped about it in the SA Express-News. Gift link: www.expressnews.com/opinion/comm...
expressnews.com
Texas can’t hide from climate change by stopping students from learning about it
Texas has removed climate change courses from core curriculum at public universities. Ignoring climate change will not serve the state.
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Chelsea Harvey @chelseaeharvey.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
NEW - Conservative orgs are filing records requests by the dozens at public universities, demanding documents from climate researchers. @lesleyclark.bsky.social @corbinhiar.bsky.social & I have uncovered more than 100 requests, a campaign targets/allies say is an effort to derail climate litigation
politico.com
Inside the anti-climate campaign against researchers
A POLITICO investigation reveals more than 100 open records requests demanding documents from climate scientists nationwide.
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Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Seems like this is still in the UK news...
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Michael E. Mann @michaelemann.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
“Ranking Member Lofgren Urges Removal of Wielicki as Leader of Climate Research Office” lofgren.house.gov/media/press-...
lofgren.house.gov
Ranking Member Lofgren Urges Removal of Wielicki as Leader of Climate Research Office
(Washington, DC) – Yesterday, Ranking Member Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) sent a letter to the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy’s (OSTP) Director, Michael Kratsios, urging him to remove Dr. M...
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Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Sad to hear this, Joe was a lovely man
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Reposted by Tim Osborn
Robin Ince @robinince.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Off to bed - thinking of Joe Harkness and all of those battling - the world as illustrated by the media and politics is not the same world as the one where so many are ready to listen to you
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University of East Anglia (UEA) @uniofeastanglia.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
People involved in family court cases in Norfolk can now access free guidance and advice through a new website hosted by UEA. The Norfolk Family Courts information website is designed to help local families better understand the family justice system and access support where needed.
A person with red hair is sitting at a desk and looking at a computer monitor displaying the "Norfolk Family Court Information" website. The screen shows an illustration of a group of animated people above some text. The desk has a keyboard and some office supplies.
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Naomi Oreskes @naomioreskes.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Do you study disinformation? Now there is a peer-reviewed journal, dedicated to understanding it. journals.sagepub.com/home/DIN
journals.sagepub.com
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
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Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
My 3-panel SOI graph inadvertently highlights multidecadal variations in ENSO activity. Relatively active in the top/bottom panels, more quiescent in the middle panel.
1866-present timeseries of Climatic Research Unit SOI with some major El Niño events marked.
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Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I’ve updated the long-running (starts 1866) CRU Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). This lets us compare the currently developing El Niño with earlier events including 1877-78. 2026 has developed very quickly, similar to the 1997-98 one. Thick line is 3-month running mean, with y-axis reversed.
1866-present timeseries of Climatic Research Unit SOI with some major El Niño events marked.
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Tim Jesper Suhrhoff @climatejesper.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
For a century, we’ve essentially been running an Enhanced Weathering field trial. In our Nature paper out yesterday, we show that agricultural liming in the Mississippi River Basin acted as a net CO₂ sink—while offering a rare century-scale analogue for EW. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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Leo Hickman @leohickman.carbonbrief.org · 24/09/2026
Where things used to be/could be/should be... Does the project involve any work that could be interpreted as promoting racism, inequality, exclusion and inaccessibility, or climate change denial? Yes No
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VikerKaarel 🇪🇪|🇺🇦 @vikerkaarel.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Got a bit carried away and into radar data and coding and put 12 hours on 4. September between 00.00 and 12.00 on the map, where in Pärnu over 120 mm of rainfall was recorded in 12 hours.
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Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
ICYMI
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Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Updated global temperature record from Met Office, CRU-UEA and NCAS-UEA. @climateuea.bsky.social @metoffice.gov.uk @ncas-uk.bsky.social @ueaenv.bsky.social
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Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
New version of the HadCRUT global temperature dataset released @colinmorice.bsky.social HadCRUT5.2 uses HadSST4.2 (with improved adjustments for SST biases during 1933-1961) and CRUTEM5.2 (with updates to stations in China, USA and Canada). Here is the difference from the previous version 5.1
Alt text: Timeseries from 1850 to 2026 of global average temperature from HadCRUT versions 5.1 and 5.2 and their difference.
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Lukas Brunner @lukasbrunner.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
🚨New publication How does internal climate variability affect the calculation of the ETCCDI temperature and precipitation extreme indices? In our paper, we introduce the Variability Atlas, a flexible toolset to address this question for users of all experience levels! doi.org/10.1088/1748...
doi.org
The variability atlas: how internal climate variability affects the estimation of climate extreme indices
The variability atlas: how internal climate variability affects the estimation of climate extreme indices, Brunner, Lukas, Mithal, Vidur, Borchert, Leonard F, Sillmann, Jana, Poschlod, Benjamin
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AGU (American Geophysical Union) @agu.org · 18/09/2026
It is with profound sadness we share that Professor Robert E. Dickinson, one of the most influential Earth system scientists of our time, passed away on 11 September 2026. AGU extends heartfelt condolences to his family and friends. Read AGU's full remembrance: spklr.io/63320ETmA4
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Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
There's lots of discussion in public & media about fuel price increases. Useful to know that (at least until the increases of the last week), inflation-adjusted fuel prices in the UK have stayed fairly flat for the last 26 years. Motorists have not been hit harder than the average person.
Timeseries of diesel and unleaded fuel prices in the UK from 2000 to 2026 (year-to-date) for raw prices (which have increased from about 80 pence per litre in 2000 to about 160 pence per litre in August 2026) and for inflation-adjusted prices (which have stayed close to 80 pence per litre in real terms).
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Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
The intriguing unfinished Elizabethan lodge at Lyveden. Apparently it's been standing there, virtually unaltered for >400 years
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UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) @ukceh.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The latest UK Hydrological Summary reports an exceptionally hot, dry August, with rainfall at 81% of average. River flows and reservoir stocks remained low, while groundwater declined more slowly and soil moisture showed some recovery. nrfa.ceh.ac.uk/sites/default/files/…
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Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
There's lots of discussion in public & media about fuel price increases. Useful to know that (at least until the increases of the last week), inflation-adjusted fuel prices in the UK have stayed fairly flat for the last 26 years. Motorists have not been hit harder than the average person.
Timeseries of diesel and unleaded fuel prices in the UK from 2000 to 2026 (year-to-date) for raw prices (which have increased from about 80 pence per litre in 2000 to about 160 pence per litre in August 2026) and for inflation-adjusted prices (which have stayed close to 80 pence per litre in real terms).
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Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Array @globaloceanbgc.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
NSF has funded over 80% of the world's BGC-Argo floats via GO-BGC, which ends in October 2026, so the global array will start shrinking. NSF is asking US researchers to weigh in on future ocean observing priorities: www.go-bgc.org/nsf/nsf-requ...
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Climate, Ecology, War & More: Dr. Glen Barry BigEarthData.ai @bigearthdata.ai · 12/09/2026
Global drought shows no detectable recent acceleration under climate warming ->Nature | More on "Global drought trends and climate change" at BigEarthData.ai | #Climate #Drought #Water
nature.com
Global drought shows no detectable recent acceleration under climate warming
Drought is a major constraint on freshwater availability, ecosystem functioning, and food security1,2,3,4, and its evolution under global warming remains a central concern in climate impact assessments5,6,7. Numerous studies have reported increasing drought severity and expanding drought-affected areas over recent decades8,9,10,11,12, drawing on converging evidence from multivariate atmospheric drought indices, which combine precipitation with atmospheric evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration (PET), calculated from near-surface atmospheric variables) to infer surface drought conditions5,11,13, together with independent, hydrological evidence such as observation-calibrated soil moisture reconstructions14, remotely sensed terrestrial water storage15, and observed streamflow declines16. However, substantial quantitative uncertainties remain specifically in the magnitude of drought trends inferred from PET-based drought indices, as such inferences depend critically on how atmospheric evaporative demand is estimated17,18,19,20. Given that PET-based indices remain among the most widely used tools for characterizing large-scale, long-term drought variability owing to their global data coverage and standardized formulation, these uncertainties arguably affect our ability to anticipate future hydroclimatic impacts and complicate downstream adaptation decision-making. Beyond the qualitative consensus of drought intensification, whether hydroclimatic extremes are accelerating (i.e., intensifying at an increasing rate) has recently emerged as a pertinent scientific question, motivated by two related lines of evidence: recent reports that global surface warming...
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Jim Leary @jimleary.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
It’s wonderful to see our research finally out. It shows that the amazing Devil’s Arrows in Boroughbridge, Yorkshire were transported 18km from Brimham Rocks (not Plumpton!) to the site. royalsocietypublishing.org/rspa/article/4…
Two tall tapering megaliths forming the Devil’s Arrows. A massive grey megalith with blue sky behind. One of the more squat megaliths with a sunburst behind it. A photo of two of the Devil’s Arrows.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 07/09/2026
Summer in England was record smashing - 2026 was 0.75°C warmer for a seasonal average than the previous record set in... <checks notes>... 2025. The remaining seasonal records from 1976 were all broken by a significant margin this year. (These were the seasonal average Tmax for England and UK)
Timeseries of average summer temperatures in England showing 2026 sticking out above every other year
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Reposted by Tim Osborn
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 07/09/2026
2026 really was a fundamentally different summer to 1976 in terms of temperature across the UK and Europe Data: ERA5
Comparing 1976 and 2026 summers in NW Europe
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Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research @tyndallcentre.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Prof. Neil Ward, from UEA/Tyndall Centre, says that the recent heatwaves has put increasing pressure on UK agriculture and the sector must build greater resilience through improving soil health, increasing water storage, and adapting food production systems 🌽 🔗 buff.ly/wJD62DF
tyndall.ac.uk
Measures needed to help UK farming weather future droughts - Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
From improving soil health to increasing water storage, it is essential that UK farms build resilience to future droughts and a changing climate, according to an expert from the Tyndall Centre for…
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Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
That damn urban heat island warming effect gets everywhere
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 05/09/2026
The second edition of Canada’s Changing Climate Report (CCCR2026) is now published, which discusses past and future climate change for the region, as well as Indigenous science and perspectives. Canada is warming at twice the global rate. Learn more at www.canada.ca/en/environme...
Graphic showing future climate-related changes in Canada would be much larger under current or weaker policies than in a net-zero future, which is from chapter 3 at https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/science-technology/changing-climate-report-2026/cccr-chapter-3-en.html.
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Elle Cordova @ellecordova.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Rough Draft vs Final Draft
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Robb Jnglin Wills @robbjnglinwills.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
The parallel between this paper and England et al. 2014 (doi.org/10.1038/ncli...) is a good reminder that part of the Pacific SST trend pattern discussion is similar to that which occurred during the “global-warming hiatus”. However, while the hiatus global warming trends have been reconciled...
doi.org
Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus - Nature Climate Change
The slowdown in global average surface warming has recently been linked to sea surface cooling in the eastern Pacific Ocean. This work shows that strengthening trade winds caused a reduction in the 20...
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 02/09/2026
Wednesday El Niño update - it continues to develop as expected, and its imprint on the large-scale atmospheric circulation is showing up more clearly. For this week, I also want to reiterate the importance of avoiding the El Niño hype (& 'scary' AI-graphics) and finding trustworthy sources of info.
Line graph time series of daily sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino3.4 region. Years are shown from 1982 to 2025 in shades of blue to light yellow, and 2026 is shown in red. Climatologically, the largest anomalies are during the boreal winter in terms of magnitude. Data is from OISSTv2.1. Map of September 1, 2026 average sea surface temperature anomalies in the ENSO monitoring regions. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1 with anomalies relative to a 1991-2020 baseline.Graphic showing the 1-week change in sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean from August 25, 2026 to September 1, 2026. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1Graphic showing the 4-week change in sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean from August 2, 2026 to September 1, 2026. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1
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Drew Peltier @peltierdrew.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Hey folks I am recruiting for a phd position in tree thermal physiology. 🌐🌾🧪 Ad below. Applications due Dec. 1st www.unlv.edu/graduatecoll...
1)	PhD in tree thermal physiology to investigate the impacts of heat extremes on tree performance and survival. The PhD student would pursue independent research to identify the thermal limits to tree survival in natural forests and urban canopies. A major focus of the position is on studies using thermal cameras, field sampling of plant stress through metrics like water potential, and monitoring of tree mortality. The student would also have the opportunity to develop their own research questions and participate in the Southwest Climate Adaptation Center (SWCASC, https://www.swcasc.arizona.edu/about/overview).

Required qualifications: 
•	BS or MS in a related field (env sci, ecology, statistics, forestry, biology, etc.)
•	Some knowledge of plant physiology
Preferred qualifications:
•	Comfortable working in R
•	Ecophys experience (e.g., water potential, gas exchange)
•	Experience with thermal imagery
•	Scientific writing experience

Applications due Dec. 1st through UNLV Graduate College:
https://www.unlv.edu/graduatecollege/apply Candidates can email Drew.Peltier@unlv.edu describing their interests in the position and relevant experience, including a CV. However: I am unable to assess candidate suitability before students have formally applied through the UNLV Graduate College.
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Ken Rice @kenrice.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
RealClimate: Koonin’s Temperature of the LOL Stratosphere www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...
realclimate.org
RealClimate: Koonin’s Temperature of the LOL Stratosphere
RealClimate: A new paper undermines totally inaccurate claims in the DOE report. Readers will recall the litany of cherry picks, misrepresentations and evasions in the DOE "Climate Working Group" (CWG...
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 01/09/2026
Our Berkeley Earth high resolution dataset paper is now available for open review over at ESSD! Thanks to @rarohde.bsky.social and Bruce Calvert for all the hard work to get it released: essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
essd.copernicus.org
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature – High-Resolution (BEST-HR): a 0.25° Global Gridded Temperature Data Set for Climate Monitoring
Abstract. We present version 2 of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset, a global observational temperature record that now features enhanced spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) and a new regr...
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Mike Dettinger @mdettinger.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
The new IPCC7 generation of emissions scenarios are out. Updating key assumptions, they represent a markedly narrower & more optimistic ensemble of futures…w/heavy reliance on future CDR. These scenarios will dictate the next IPCC projections & assessment. www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-th...
carbonbrief.org
Explainer: The CMIP7 emissions scenarios – and how they explore future climate change - Carbon Brief
Every few years, climate modelling groups run a coordinated set of simulations that explore climate change in the future. Carbon Brief unpacks how the new scenarios were designed and how they differ.
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Prof Richard Betts @richardabetts.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
This summer was the hottest on record in the UK The summer of 1976 that some folks my age keep banging on about is now only the SEVENTH hottest on record The top five hottest summers all happened since 2003 We're heating the planet by burning fossil fuels www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...
metoffice.gov.uk
Summer 2026 provisionally hottest on record for the UK
The season’s mean temperature was made around 130 times more likely due to human-induced climate change.
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Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Ben Santer et al. show another claim in the Trump Admin's 2025 DOE climate report does not withstand scrutiny. Using the correct observational data, they find that observed tropical atmospheric temperature changes are consistent with the expected human fingerprint on climate. (my annotations)
Fig 3 from Santer et al. (2026) showing consistency between observed and modelled changes in atmospheric temperatures at different levels within the stratosphere and troposphere, with my annotations on panel c
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Naomi Oreskes @naomioreskes.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
How crazy is it that this paper even needed to be written in 2026? Ben Santer proved that the stratosphere was cooling --a key fingerprint of human-caused global warming--THIRTY YEARS AGO agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Misrepresentation of Human Climate Fingerprint in DOE Report
A July 2025 DOE report claimed that there is no human fingerprint on the vertical structure of atmospheric temperature change This claim was based on a comparison of modeled and observed temperat...
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Neil Kaye @neilrkaye.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Here in the UK, 2018 was the hottest summer on record, then 2025 was the hottest summer on record and now 2026 is the hottest summer on record as well as being very dry. Here is a climate/weather summary for the past 12 months showing the multiple heatwaves we have had. #globalwaming #climatechange
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Ed Conway @edconway.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
✍️ Want to understand the bonkers nature of the modern economy? Take a ride with me on the 30,000 mile journey the cod in a fish finger takes between being caught off the coast of Scotland and consumed in a British home 🤯 Promise I'm not making this up👇 edconway.substack.com/p/the-30000-...
edconway.substack.com
The 30,000-mile fish finger
There’s a good chance the cod on your child’s plate has been around the world and back. Not that you’d learn any of that from the label...
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Tim Osborn @timosbornclim.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Congrats to all, including: Bakerian Medal and Lecture Professor Karen Heywood OBE FRS, for her outstanding contributions as a physical oceanographer who has documented how the Southern Ocean interacts with the Antarctic continent.
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The Royal Society @royalsociety.org · 26/08/2026
We've updated our Q&A on the evidence and causes for human-induced #ClimateChange, using the most recent climate data and scientific analyses. Get answers to key questions about our changing climate here: royalsociety.org/news-resources/pro…
royalsociety.org
Evidence & Causes of Climate Change | Royal Society
Climate change is one of the defining issues of our time. It is now more certain than ever, based on many lines of evidence, that humans are changing Earth’s climate.
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Prof Sam Illingworth @samillingworth.com · 24/08/2026
🧊 A tropical ice core rewrites the methane record A new tropical ice core shows equatorial wetlands emitted more methane before industrialisation than polar ice cores ever suggested. 🔗 doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10938-1 #ClimateScience #Methane #IceCore 🧪
doi.org
A global atmospheric methane record from a tropical ice core - Nature
A 2,000-year Peruvian ice core record of atmospheric CH4 concentrations contains the first historical global CH4 record from the low latitudes, and implementation of a four-box model indicates higher ...
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Prof Paul Williams @profpaul.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Rising turbulence is a tangible example of how climate change affects everyday life, as I explain in this profile article in the Times of India.
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Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Faced with cancer, one of the world’s top climate scientists speaks about his feelings and about how the orchestrated anti-science backlash will affect all of us. Listen to this very moving podcast episode! www.climateone.org/audio/cancer...
climateone.org
A Cancer Diagnosis Reframed How Ben Santer Thinks About Climate Science
Atmospheric scientist Ben Santer pioneered the research that connects human activity to specific climate events. Now, pursuing treatment for a rare type of lymphoma, he sees his own diagnosis and his ...
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Sam Burgess @oceanterra.org · 24/08/2026
Ocean sea surface temperatures now at record levels! Anticipated but not welcomed... For more: climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-d... #ClimateAction 🌊🧪⚒️
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National Trust Archaeology @nattrustarch.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
NT's Senior National Archaeologist Hannah Fluck was recently interviewed for Radio 4's Artworks series "Above and Below: The Battle to Save Britain's Prehistoric Art". Listen here: bit.ly/3SpgENM
bbc.co.uk
Artworks - Above and Below: The Battle to Save Britain's Prehistoric Art - BBC Sounds
Eleanor Barraclough explores the threat from climate change to our ancient creative past.
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