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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 07/10/2026

Here's the Guardian story… www.theguardian.com/... and here's Centre for Net Zero… "rising block tariff means the more successfully a household electrifies, the larger the share of its consumption that falls into higher-priced blocks" www.centrefornetzero...

theguardian.com

Chancellor plans major intervention to help poorer UK households with rising energy bills

Exclusive: Officials working on further radical changes that would change how much energy companies could charge customers

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 07/10/2026

Guardian frontpage today on budget action to cut UK household energy bills lists "rising block tariffs" as one of the options. But there are well-known issues with the idea. eg Centre for Net Zero says it "work[s] against electrification" What do you think? Could it happen?

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James Murray @james-bg.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

It's been over a year. 90 page strategy documents have now been published. Multiple interviews have been given. And still no one has pinned Kemi Badenoch down on what her alternative approach to tackling climate change without getting to net zero by 2050 actually entails.

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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Sánchez calls elections for November 29. Odds strongly against him but history suggests it would be unwise to write off the great survivor of Spanish politics entirely. The timing is typically canny: seizing moment where the national conversation has turned from migration to housing.

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Adam Bell @adambell.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Dieter on economic regulation: genuinely novel interesting insights based on a life spent in the field. Dieter on anything else: HERE COMES UNCLE BOOMER.

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James Murray @james-bg.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

This would be an interesting move ahead of energy bills climbing to £2,000 a year. The Warm Homes Plan (and CCS and hydrogen) are also meant to be political cover for Burnham's 'pragmatic' approach to more North Sea drilling.

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 02/10/2026

Electric cars just had their best month ever in the UK Nearly 100,000 new BEVs sold, +36% year-on-year (Data from SMMT, which continues to lobby for weaker EV targets)

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 30/09/2026

Not sure we've come to terms with what this chart means for people's lives, politics, borrowing costs, cost of capital, etc, etc Lots of big European elections coming up next year…

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 30/09/2026

Some people say UK should stop building clean energy and should extend its reliance on gas power instead Choosing my words carefully, I would say that it's an interesting time to be making that argument www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-win...

carbonbrief.org

Analysis: Wind and solar save UK from gas imports worth £5.9bn during Hormuz crisis - Carbon Brief

The UK has avoided gas imports worth £5.9bn since the start of the Hormuz crisis as a result of record electricity generation from wind and solar.

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 30/09/2026

The bump in avoided gas import costs in September reflects the latest surge in gas prices, which have climbed to levels not seen since energy crisis in 2022 2019 avg = 35p per therm 2023-2026 (before Hormuz) = 90p 2026 (after Hormuz) = 134p Sep 2026 = 189p (!!)

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 30/09/2026

NEW ANALYSIS: Record wind and solar save UK from gas imports worth £5.9bn during Hormuz crisis 🌤️ wind/solar generation up 14% in 2026 to date 🏭 gas down ~10% 🚢 >100 LNG cargoes avoided

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 29/09/2026

ANU researchers: "In this paper, we conclude that Indonesia has vast potential for generating and balancing solar photovoltaic (PV) energy to meet future energy needs at a competitive cost." www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14...

mdpi.com

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 28/09/2026

PS given inevitable calls for lower fuel duty, worth adding that at roughly 7-8 litres per 100km, even a 10p cut in fuel duty would only cut driving costs by just over 1p per mile…

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 28/09/2026

EVs are now up to 9x cheaper to drive than diesels in UK www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-evs...

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Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 24/09/2026

NEW – Analysis: EVs are now nine times cheaper than petrol or diesel to drive in the UK ✍️ Written by @mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org 📊 Data analysis by Ho Woo Nam Read here: buff.ly/VpxOLE5

EVs are now up to nine times cheaper per mile than diesel cars. Pence per mile. A chart shows diesel highest at around 21p, petrol at 20p, EV at price cap at 7p, and EV off peak lowest at under 2.5p. Source: Carbon Brief analysis, DESNZ, Ofgem, Zapmap. - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 24/09/2026

"We are in a state of perpetual gas price spikes", says Ana Musat, exec director for policy at RenewableUK Says energy bills have been hit by 9x gas price spikes in a decade and that renewables have saved UK £100bn since 2021

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 24/09/2026

A lot of medium-term growth in gas demand, particularly from Asia, is "now in some question", says Bill Farren-Price, senior research fellow at the Oxford Inst for Energy Studies While intl climate diplomacy has "fractured", the "economics of the energy transition are…going to win out"

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 24/09/2026

Says it was "extraordinary" that former chancellor Rachel Reeves took a chunk of policy costs off household bills at last budget – given officials had been saying it'd never happen for 10 years – and calls for next budget to go a "step further"

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 24/09/2026

Dhara Vyas, Energy UK CEO, says high electricity costs for businesses are "stifling growth" in the economy Calls for upcoming budget to take policy costs off bills For households, says successive govts have failed on using data to better target public support for bills

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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 21/09/2026

This year's El Niño event is moving into record territory, with the daily Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) tying the record previously set during the 2015/2016 super-El Niño. My latest over at Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/...

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 21/09/2026

So, that's the end of the story, which is only long in terms of the time it has taken for those licenses to (not yet) yield any actual gas out of the ground. Is 37-56 years unusual? The averages say it is. But beware those touting new licenses as a quick fix.

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 21/09/2026

Anyway, the three Jackdaw licenses are clustered together, as you would expect. If you like maps, knock yourself out: experience.arcgis.com/experience/6...

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 21/09/2026

(Bonus fun fact: The 33rd licensing round was announced under the premiership of short-lived prime minister Liz Truss. For it was she. She said the round was going to "accelerate…domestic energy production".)

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 21/09/2026

(The most recent licensing round was the 33rd and opened in 2022, ultimately issuing 82 licenses. To my knowledge, as of today, none of the fields licensed in the 33rd round are producing any oil or gas.) www.nstauthority.co.uk/media/5jajkd...

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 21/09/2026

In total, there are three licenses relevant to Jackdaw, P98 and P111, issued in the third licensing round in 1970, along with P672 issued in the 11th round in 1989 They're listed on this 2021 letter from Shell, which used to own the licenses assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/609404...

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 21/09/2026

Here are the other two. I particularly like the hand-written dates – and the company names. Union Jack Oil! Ranger Oil! Strong, manly names. The wells will be gushing before you know it. datanstauthority.blob.core.windows.net/external/Red... datanstauthority.blob.core.windows.net/external/Red...

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 21/09/2026

For those curious to follow me down this particular rabbit hole, there are other rather wonderful details to be found eg the licenses for Jackdaw were issued in 1970 & 1989 (yes really) for the princely total of £37,291.50 Here's one of them: datanstauthority.blob.core.windows.net/external/Red...

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 21/09/2026

I already knew it took an average of 28yrs for new North Sea licenses to result in new oil & gas production (link) Yet somehow, I was still surprised to see the dates on the licenses for Jackdaw, which is constantly in the news www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-ni...

carbonbrief.org

Factcheck: Nine false or misleading myths about North Sea oil and gas - Carbon Brief

Carbon Brief factchecks some of the most common claims about North Sea oil and gas.

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 21/09/2026

The long view of North sea licenses: A short story with some fascinating historical details 🧵 How often are we told that new licenses can guarantee UK energy security, amid another energy crisis? But hang on: licenses for the much-discussed Jackdaw gas field were issued as long ago as 1970 (pic)

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Katharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com · 21/09/2026

When we stop talking about climate change like it’s a political issue and start talking about it as a shared challenge that we all need to work together to solve, that’s when we’ll finally be able to start talking about saving ourselves. That is our conclusion here!

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Jim Pickard @pickardje.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

my brilliant colleague @robertshrimsley.bsky.social on the threat from Elon Musk’s X platform www.ft.com/content/f270...

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Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 18/09/2026

We are thrilled that Carbon Brief’s @leohickman.carbonbrief.org and @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org have won the Covering Climate Now journalism award in the international relations category. We are grateful to @coveringclimatenow.org for recognising the importance of our journalism with this award.

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Akshat Rathi @akshatrathi.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Doubts grow about China's gas demand, as experience from one province shows. *Gas plants are increasingly being used to balance intermittent renewables output instead of delivering baseload power." www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

bloomberg.com

China’s Gas Demand Outlook Clouded by Guangdong’s Power Shift

Electricity market reforms in one of China’s economic powerhouses could herald a more sweeping slowdown in the country’s demand for natural gas.

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Steve Akehurst @steveakehurst.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

NEW: How did the summer heatwaves and wildfires change attitudes to climate and Net Zero, if at all? A short thread on analysis of tracker polling now summer is winding down. 🧵 (for @persuasionuk.bsky.social with @yougov.co.uk)

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 17/09/2026

support for almost anything is wide but shallow, from climate to education, the dissonance is everywhere "do you like cheese" vs "would you pay higher taxes for more cheese" AND ALSO "do you want govt to spend more on cheese" vs "higher taxes for cheese"

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 16/09/2026

We saw some cases where Ukraine crisis price spikes contributed to lasting shifts away from fossil fuels eg the rapid acceleration in EU clean energy, or Pakistan We will see, but the potential for such shifts looks much greater today, esp via cost-competitive EVs

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 16/09/2026

Good Qs. I'd say Hormuz is different (also vs Ukraine crisis). Covid was… ->lockdown->no driving->pandemic ends->driving (no net change for oil + higher govt debt) Hormuz is more like… Opt🅰️ price spike->no driving->spike ends->oil rebound Opt🅱️->switch to EV->permanent demand destruction

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 16/09/2026

The outlooks for gas and coal are interlinked, with high gas prices likely to support coal, at least in the short term, while pushing developing Asia towards clean energy longer term. There's a supply glut coming and memories can be short, but who'd bet on a thriving future for LNG today?

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 16/09/2026

The IEA's monthly forecasts for oil in 2026 keep getting worse – and it now sees ~flat global demand 2025-27 That's a big ?? over previous outlook of oil rising to 2030 "For every month the conflict lasts, the probability of permanent [oil] demand destruction increases" – DNV

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 16/09/2026

NEW ANALYSIS: Global fossil-fuel emissions are set to fall by around 0.5% in 2026 amid the ongoing Hormuz crisis We've all see the scare stories about a "return to coal" – but the "demand destruction" for oil is even bigger Here's how it stacks up: www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-glo...

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 16/09/2026

Does it tho? Or are you just layering your own priors on top of the Ember slidedeck?

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Josh Gabbatiss @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

I find this stuff remarkable. This is in response to a story about record numbers of ambulance callouts for "life-threatening" emergencies during the June heatwave. Real, tangible evidence that extreme heat is contributing to people dying or nearly dying in the UK. But it's still a "scare story"

A commenter writes:
So according to the headline 4 days of high thirties C weather is an extreme heatwave. Goodness knows how the citizens of the UAE manage to not only survive but proper in much hotter weather. Climate change scare stories are really tedious and best left to the BBC and Met Office

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 16/09/2026

ELECTRIFICATION: Really striking chart showing that three-quarters of final energy demand can now be electrified "economically" (ie at lower lifetime cost) – and 90% electrification is technically possible From the latest @ember-energy.org slidedeck by @kingsmillbond.bsky.social and colleagues

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Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 16/09/2026

NEW – CCC: Heathrow expansion could push flights to ‘80% of UK emissions by 2050’ | By @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/SBtfvG3

Aviation is on track to reach 80% of UK CO2 emissions by 2050 with Heathrow expansion, says CCC. Residual CO2 emissions in 2050 under the CCC balanced net-zero pathway, with the impact of a proposed Heathrow expansion, MtCO2. Horizontal bar chart showing aviation far exceeding all other sectors. Source: Climate Change Committee - (alt text generated by Google Gemini)

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