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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 16/10/2026

Guardian last month: "Scrap windfall tax on oil and gas firms early, North Sea industry urges" FT this week: "How will Big Oil spend its $32bn Iran war windfall?"

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 15/10/2026

FACTCHECK: Why does @dalevince.com hate heat pumps? I don't know – we can speculate – but I do know that he peddles a lot of myths about the technology More in my factcheck from January www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-wh...

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 15/10/2026

REMINDER: If govt cuts heat-pump grants, the UK will have to import a lot more gas In 2023, Energy UK said that'd cost an extra £3bn over 2026-2030, but gas prices today are roughly ~2x what they were at the time of the analysis…

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 14/10/2026

Lib Dem leader Ed Davey says Conservatives and Reform's energy strategy "is to tie us ever more tightly to volatile gas prices, believing against all historical evidence that gas prices won't just go lower sometime in the future, but stay low in the future"

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 14/10/2026

NEW: Another demand downgrade in the latest IEA oil market report Previously, IEA said a rebound in 2027 would outweigh the Homuz-related drop in 2026 Now, it sees oil failing to make up lost ground next year – demand will remain below 2025 levels

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 14/10/2026

Here are the top energy priorities for govt, according to attendees at the Energy UK conference: * Affordability * Electrification

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 14/10/2026

Energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh Says ambition for "homegrown clean power" is important: "We all know that one of the reasons we are seeing rising prices is bc we are uniquely exposed to global fossil fuel markets."

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 14/10/2026

New Ofgem head Tim Jarvis says, looking at gas prices and what's going on in the Middle East, that it's going to be a "difficult winter". Says consumers will need "some help" at the upcoming Budget.

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 14/10/2026

Katherine Dixon, head of the Regulatory Assistance Project, argues looking at gas & electricity bills alone is too narrow. Cites Australian example of household "energy wallet" that includes car costs, and where modelling suggests electrification offers big savings overall.

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 14/10/2026

Shadow secretary of state Andrew Bowie says climate change is real, but the way we are tackling it is failing Wants "cheap power" so electrification can become the "obvious choice" Makes passionate case for backing the North Sea oil and gas industry

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 14/10/2026

Keith Anderson, head of Scottish Power says the energy industry is investing billions in the country "This is reindustrialisation that others talk about, but we're actually delivering as an industry."

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 14/10/2026

Dhara Vyas, head of Energy UK: "The industry is clear that a system largely supplied by clean power and an electrified economy represents the way forward. This is not driven by ideology but by evidence."

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 12/10/2026

HEAT PUMPS: Following today's Guardian pre-budget story saying the boiler upgrade scheme will be trimmed, it's worth looking back to last year's pre-budget Guardian story saying the scheme would be trimmed. Last time it was not, in fact, trimmed. Let's see what happens this time.

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 09/10/2026

Finally, earlier this week, the double-counted number appeared in the Conservative "Right Way" booklet

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 09/10/2026

The same claim was then repeated, citing Turver, by the Great British Think Tank in March (This org has the tagline “data, not vibes” and says of its work: “Every figure [is] sourced from official public bodies.”)

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 09/10/2026

It seems the original sin here was by David Turver, a retired engineer and self-described "accidental energy analyst", who made the £957bn claim in a 12 Jan article for the Spectator, previewing his 13 Jan report for rightwing thinktank the Institute of Economic Affairs

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 09/10/2026

It's worth adding that since 2020, the CCC published revised estimates of the cost of net-zero, which it now says would amount to £108bn over 25 years, or 0.2% of GDP This is mainly due to falling costs for EVs – more here: www.carbonbrief.org/...

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 09/10/2026

Contrary to the Tory claim, the CCC never said net-zero would cost £957bn The error seems to stem from a Jan26 report, that apparently added up numbers twice in a 2020 CCC spreadsheet (pic) So it's double the CCC estimate 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 09/10/2026

The false claim in the Conservative document is referenced to a footnote – which I guess lends it a sense of authority? – and the footnote links back to the CCC's 2020 sixth carbon budget advice But the £957bn figure does not appear in the CCC advice

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 09/10/2026

The Conservative doc, which makes great play of the need for "competent" govt and "political judgement", falsely claims that in 2020, climate advisers the CCC put the cost of net-zero at £957bn over 30yrs 2020-50

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 09/10/2026

FACTCHECK: UK Conservatives double the ‘cost of net-zero’ after spreadsheet blunder The Tory "Right Way" booklet makes an erroneous claim about the cost of cutting emissions, possibly taken from a Jan26 thinktank report, and deffo the most idiotic error I've seen for a while 🧵

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 07/10/2026

Guardian frontpage today on budget action to cut UK household energy bills lists "rising block tariffs" as one of the options. But there are well-known issues with the idea. eg Centre for Net Zero says it "work[s] against electrification" What do you think? Could it happen?

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 02/10/2026

Electric cars just had their best month ever in the UK Nearly 100,000 new BEVs sold, +36% year-on-year (Data from SMMT, which continues to lobby for weaker EV targets)

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 30/09/2026

Not sure we've come to terms with what this chart means for people's lives, politics, borrowing costs, cost of capital, etc, etc Lots of big European elections coming up next year…

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 30/09/2026

The bump in avoided gas import costs in September reflects the latest surge in gas prices, which have climbed to levels not seen since energy crisis in 2022 2019 avg = 35p per therm 2023-2026 (before Hormuz) = 90p 2026 (after Hormuz) = 134p Sep 2026 = 189p (!!)

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 30/09/2026

NEW ANALYSIS: Record wind and solar save UK from gas imports worth £5.9bn during Hormuz crisis 🌤️ wind/solar generation up 14% in 2026 to date 🏭 gas down ~10% 🚢 >100 LNG cargoes avoided

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 28/09/2026

EVs are now up to 9x cheaper to drive than diesels in UK www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-evs...

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 24/09/2026

"We are in a state of perpetual gas price spikes", says Ana Musat, exec director for policy at RenewableUK Says energy bills have been hit by 9x gas price spikes in a decade and that renewables have saved UK £100bn since 2021

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 24/09/2026

A lot of medium-term growth in gas demand, particularly from Asia, is "now in some question", says Bill Farren-Price, senior research fellow at the Oxford Inst for Energy Studies While intl climate diplomacy has "fractured", the "economics of the energy transition are…going to win out"

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 24/09/2026

Dhara Vyas, Energy UK CEO, says high electricity costs for businesses are "stifling growth" in the economy Calls for upcoming budget to take policy costs off bills For households, says successive govts have failed on using data to better target public support for bills

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 21/09/2026

So, that's the end of the story, which is only long in terms of the time it has taken for those licenses to (not yet) yield any actual gas out of the ground. Is 37-56 years unusual? The averages say it is. But beware those touting new licenses as a quick fix.

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 21/09/2026

Anyway, the three Jackdaw licenses are clustered together, as you would expect. If you like maps, knock yourself out: experience.arcgis.com/experience/6...

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 21/09/2026

(Bonus fun fact: The 33rd licensing round was announced under the premiership of short-lived prime minister Liz Truss. For it was she. She said the round was going to "accelerate…domestic energy production".)

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 21/09/2026

(The most recent licensing round was the 33rd and opened in 2022, ultimately issuing 82 licenses. To my knowledge, as of today, none of the fields licensed in the 33rd round are producing any oil or gas.) www.nstauthority.co.uk/media/5jajkd...

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 21/09/2026

In total, there are three licenses relevant to Jackdaw, P98 and P111, issued in the third licensing round in 1970, along with P672 issued in the 11th round in 1989 They're listed on this 2021 letter from Shell, which used to own the licenses assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/609404...

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 21/09/2026

Here are the other two. I particularly like the hand-written dates – and the company names. Union Jack Oil! Ranger Oil! Strong, manly names. The wells will be gushing before you know it. datanstauthority.blob.core.windows.net/external/Red... datanstauthority.blob.core.windows.net/external/Red...

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 21/09/2026

For those curious to follow me down this particular rabbit hole, there are other rather wonderful details to be found eg the licenses for Jackdaw were issued in 1970 & 1989 (yes really) for the princely total of £37,291.50 Here's one of them: datanstauthority.blob.core.windows.net/external/Red...

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 21/09/2026

The long view of North sea licenses: A short story with some fascinating historical details 🧵 How often are we told that new licenses can guarantee UK energy security, amid another energy crisis? But hang on: licenses for the much-discussed Jackdaw gas field were issued as long ago as 1970 (pic)

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 16/09/2026

The IEA's monthly forecasts for oil in 2026 keep getting worse – and it now sees ~flat global demand 2025-27 That's a big ?? over previous outlook of oil rising to 2030 "For every month the conflict lasts, the probability of permanent [oil] demand destruction increases" – DNV

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 16/09/2026

NEW ANALYSIS: Global fossil-fuel emissions are set to fall by around 0.5% in 2026 amid the ongoing Hormuz crisis We've all see the scare stories about a "return to coal" – but the "demand destruction" for oil is even bigger Here's how it stacks up: www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-glo...

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 16/09/2026

ELECTRIFICATION: Really striking chart showing that three-quarters of final energy demand can now be electrified "economically" (ie at lower lifetime cost) – and 90% electrification is technically possible From the latest @ember-energy.org slidedeck by @kingsmillbond.bsky.social and colleagues

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 14/09/2026

REMINDER: Trump has overseen a larger fall in coal-fired power than any other US president (ie, other things equal, the EPA repealing power-plant CO2 rules means more coal power,…but other things are not equal, because most coal plants are old and expensive) www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-tru...

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 11/09/2026

NEW: Indonesia's fire emissions in 2026 are on track to match the record for this century, as El Niño builds By my CB colleague @ceciliakeating.carbonbrief.org www.carbonbrief.org/el-nino-indo...

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 11/09/2026

MEGA FACTCHECK: Reform UK's Farage & Tice constantly mislead on climate & energy We've checked 45 of their claims, inc… * Yes we really have made it hotter * No UK is not acting alone * No we can't change geology * Yes underground cables really are more costly www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-re...

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 08/09/2026

Re Jaguar Land Rover job cuts, this is quite the chart from @bennelmes.bsky.social at @newautomotive.org Look at the data and ask yourself, is this a company damaged by UK EV targets, or by a failure to make competitive EVs for the Chinese market, where nearly 2/3 of sales are electric

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 19/08/2026

Relying more on gas power will save money, as long as gas is cheap – and stays cheap in the future. About that… (Annotated chart from Johnny Gowdy at Regen)

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 19/08/2026

On the day that UK inflation spikes due to what the ONS calls the "largest rise in gas prices in four years", the Conservatives are claiming – and getting acres of credulous media coverage – that we can cut electricity bills by relying more on gas. Righto.

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 18/08/2026

Reform UK's Richard Tice: "When it’s a bit warm, let’s enjoy it…rather than just be doom and gloom about it." Met Office: More than 2,700 heat deaths NHS: More 999 calls than Covid Farmers: "Brutal harvest…one of the worst ever" Your own eyes: "Inferno…fires engulf…homes"

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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 17/08/2026

CALM DOWN snowflakes, we were fine in 1976 before our eco-loon overlords foolishly rewilded the West Midlands

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