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Jeremy Cliffe

@jeremycliffe.bsky.social
9.5K followers 1.1K following 798 posts

Editorial Director and Senior Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations (@ecfr.eu) ecfr.eu

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Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
FT reporting a Franco-German carve-up to weaken auto emission rules and put up the Made in EU barriers so consumers can "benefit" from worse more expensive cars, and manufacturers can presumably ignore export markets... Slide into Peronism continues.
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Mélenchon gaining momentum in French presidential polling while the centrist field remains fragmented and weak ⬇️
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ECFR European Power @ecfrpower.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
1/1 Marine Le Pen is running for the French presidency in 2027. For Europe, that means preparing for the possibility of a France very different from the one it knows today, write @celiabelin.bsky.social, @jeremycliffe.bsky.social, @camillelons.bsky.social and Constance Victor. A 🧵 buff.ly/TYm5Gd0
buff.ly
If Marine Le Pen wins: A European guide to a far-right France – European Council on Foreign Relations
A Le Pen-led France would mean major changes to European politics. Here's how political leaders can begin to prepare.
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 22/09/2026
Houthi advances now threaten Saudi Arabia’s most viable oil-export route. Europeans should strengthen Riyadh’s maritime and air defences, and mobilise a wider diplomatic coalition to end the US-Iran war, write @jbdacey.bsky.social, Cinzia Bianco & Ellie Geranmayeh ecfr.eu/article/the-...
ecfr.eu
The strait and narrow: Yemen, the Red Sea and Europe’s path forward – European Council on Foreign Relations
Houthi advances now threaten Saudi Arabia’s most viable oil-export route. Europeans should strengthen Riyadh's maritime and air defences, and mobilise a wider d
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
AfD now fully 10 points ahead of CDU/CSU in national polling...
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Sharp piece for @theatlantic.com by Tom Wright citing my @carnegieendowment.org paper on the AfD's foreign policies: "Trump is betting on the wrong Europe" www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 21/09/2026
The UAE built its power by turning itself into a hub that binds it to every great power at once. The war w/ Iran has tested this strategy & is forcing a rethink in Abu Dhabi. @cinziabianco.bsky.social ecfr.eu/publication/little-venice-l…
ecfr.eu
Little Venice, little Sparta: The UAE’s statecraft meets the war on Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations
The UAE built its power by turning itself into a hub that binds it to every great power at once. The war with Iran has tested this strategy and is forcing a ret
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Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
Joerg Lau @joerglau.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Hello world, meet Germany‘s equivalent to @mayor.nyc.gov - Elif Eralp who just won a landslide victory in Berlin for @dielinkeberlin.bsky.social. She is on ourse to become Berlin‘s first mayor with immigrant background, and the second Turkish speaker in that position after Ernst Reuter.
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Meanwhile exit polls in Mecklenburg–Western Pomerania put AfD narrowly ahead. But what a catch-up over the course of campaign by SPD's Manuela Schwesig, v likely securing her another term and (if she wants it) prospects of SPD chancellor candidacy in 2029. Disaster for CDU.
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Both exit polls in Berlin's state election put socialist Left party comfortably ahead of rest. If reflected in results, will put @eliferalp.bsky.social in strong position to lead next state government if she can do deal with Greens + SPD. AfD looks to be underperforming its polling.
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
A proud moment: my first vote as a German citizen 🇩🇪 🇪🇺 #BerlinWahl
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Mats Engström @matsengstrom.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
All votes counted in Sweden. The opposition gets 176 seats in the new Riksdag, the four "Tidö"-parties supporting the current government get 173. Now Magdalena Andersson has the difficult task of forming a government. This is what it could mean for Europe. ecfr.eu/article/afte... @ecfr.eu #val2026
ecfr.eu
After Tidö: What a centre-left Sweden would change for Europe – European Council on Foreign Relations
Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats is the favourite to become Sweden's next prime minister, but only after months of hard coalition bargaining. Who she
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ZN @znconsulting.com · 18/09/2026
And now, the #EUinfluencer2026 Top 5 on Bluesky: 5. @jonworth.eu 4. @jeremycliffe.bsky.social 🥉 @fbermingham.bsky.social 🥈 @alanbeattie.bsky.social 🥇 @stevepeers.bsky.social A huge congratulations to this year’s Top 10 on Bluesky! 🏆🦋 #EUinfluencer #10YearsofEUInfluencer
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ECFR European Power @ecfrpower.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Two upcoming state elections on September 20th—in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and in Berlin—could further dent Merz's authority. It is possible, though not currently probable, that he will be forced out as chancellor, say @jeremycliffe.bsky.social and @jpuglierin.bsky.social buff.ly/dGjIP1Q
ecfr.eu
Beyond Saxony-Anhalt: What Merz’s crisis means for Europe – European Council on Foreign Relations
The far-right AfD’s win in a small German state calls for dynamism in Berlin and hedging in Brussels
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ECFR European Power @ecfrpower.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
1/4 Europeans have not turned against climate action. The majority of citizens still supports the green transition. The problem is not the goal itself, but whether today’s politics can still deliver it, claim Piotr Buras, @susidennison.bsky.social and @jeremycliffe.bsky.social A 🧵 buff.ly/N39Wd4v
ecfr.eu
The new climate battle: Five deals to recharge the green transition – European Council on Foreign Relations
As climate policy becomes increasingly contested, Europe must adapt its Green Deal to a new political era. The first policy brief in the New Politics project ou
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
In her State of the Union speech, and with Mark Carney in attendance, Von der Leyen opens door to Canada becoming the "first associate member of the European Union". Anand Sundar recently wrote for @ecfr.eu on how Canada and EU could supercharge their cooperation: ecfr.eu/article/frie...
ecfr.eu
Friends without benefits: Why the EU should offer Canada more than casual defence ties – European Council on Foreign Relations
Trump is pushing Canada—a quiet military powerhouse—away from America. The EU should seize the chance and fold it into its own defence
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
With four days to go until the election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Manuela Schwesig's SPD continuing to narrow the gap, now only 2 points behind AfD. Strong result there would make her a major power broker in the party after elections.
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 15/09/2026
Canada is an underrated military power. The 2% of its GDP that it currently spends on defence is already more than the 14 smallest EU defence budgets combined. ecfr.eu/article/friends-without-ben…
ecfr.eu
Friends without benefits: Why the EU should offer Canada more than casual defence ties – European Council on Foreign Relations
Trump is pushing Canada—a quiet military powerhouse—away from America. The EU should seize the chance and fold it into its own defence
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 12/09/2026
The Kremlin is promoting Ukraine war veterans and, in so doing, cultivating a proto-elite to fill future vacancies and reinforce Russia’s militarised course, writes Mikhail Komin Read full text: bit.ly/46hWTLu
bit.ly
Booted, then suited: Veterans and the making of Putin’s new proto-elite – European Council on Foreign Relations
The Kremlin is promoting Ukraine war veterans--cultivating a proto-elite who could reinforce Russia’s militarised course.
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 13/09/2026
ECFR founding member and co-chair emerita Emma Bonino has died at the age of 78. A towering figure in European foreign policy, she was an inspiration to millions across the continent. She left a deep mark on European and Italian politics, and on ECFR ecfr.eu/article/reme...
ecfr.eu
Remembering Emma Bonino – European Council on Foreign Relations
ECFR founding member and co-chair emerita Emma Bonino has died at the age of 78. A towering figure in European foreign policy, she was an inspiration to million
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Looks like the centre-left is on track for a (very narrow) victory at yesterday's Swedish general election. Read @matsengstrom.bsky.social for @ecfr.eu on what that could mean for 🇸🇪's place in Europe ⬇️
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Germany’s socialist Left party now seemingly consolidating its lead ahead of Berlin state election on September 20:
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ECFR European Power @ecfrpower.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
The far-right AfD’s win in a small German state calls for dynamism in Berlin and hedging in Brussels, write @jpuglierin.bsky.social and @jeremycliffe.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/beyo...
ecfr.eu
Beyond Saxony-Anhalt: What Merz’s crisis means for Europe – European Council on Foreign Relations
The far-right AfD’s win in a small German state calls for dynamism in Berlin and hedging in Brussels
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Congratulations @pawelzerka.bsky.social on this fascinating and innovative @ecfr.eu study - a unique bank of c.6,000 conversations with Europeans about their continent's future. And thanks to Ms Lipa for the title inspiration.
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Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
It's always the way, isn't it giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Graph shows far right support higher where the number of foreign nationals is lowest
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Initial thoughts by @jpuglierin.bsky.social and me on the European significance of the AfD’s landslide result in Saxony-Anhalt, and what happens next: ecfr.eu/article/beyo...
ecfr.eu
Beyond Saxony-Anhalt: What Merz’s crisis means for Europe – European Council on Foreign Relations
The far-right AfD’s win in a small German state calls for dynamism in Berlin and hedging in Brussels
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Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 08/09/2026
The far-right AfD's win in a small German state calls for dynamism in Berlin and hedging in Brussels, write @jeremycliffe.bsky.social and @jpuglierin.bsky.social. @ecfrpower.bsky.socialr ecfr.eu/article/beyond-saxony-anhal…
ecfr.eu
Beyond Saxony-Anhalt: What Merz’s crisis means for Europe – European Council on Foreign Relations
The far-right AfD’s win in a small German state calls for dynamism in Berlin and hedging in Brussels
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Initial thoughts by @jpuglierin.bsky.social and me on the European significance of the AfD’s landslide result in Saxony-Anhalt, and what happens next: ecfr.eu/article/beyo...
ecfr.eu
Beyond Saxony-Anhalt: What Merz’s crisis means for Europe – European Council on Foreign Relations
The far-right AfD’s win in a small German state calls for dynamism in Berlin and hedging in Brussels
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Reposted by Jeremy Cliffe
ECFR @ecfr.eu · 08/09/2026
As UNGA approaches, political leadership is urgently needed. A comprehensive response on drought, farmers, the Black Sea and fertiliser access is still possible. ecfr.eu/article/against-war-drought…
ecfr.eu
Against war, drought and hunger: A global coalition to prevent a food crisis – European Council on Foreign Relations
Three features of today’s unordered world are converging to create a devastating food crisis. Russia’s war in Ukraine is disrupting agricultural exports from bo
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
All eyes now on Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Germany's Baltic Sea coast and its hinterland), where a popular SPD incumbent, Manuela Schwesig, is running as a bulwark against the AfD in the state election on September 20. "Die Frau gegen blau" = "The woman against blue [AfD]"
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Valentin Kreilinger @vkreilinger.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
After the shock: 23 figures 📊 on the Saxony-Anhalt result and voting behaviour from ZDF / Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and ARD / Infratest dimap👇 1/9
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Jana Puglierin @jpuglierin.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Posting this again. For a reason.
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
BSW members of the Landtag will be very unpredictable imho. It is a strange mix of people and at this point some might not actually have expected to make it into parliament. There may as well be 2-3 who are very „anti-war“ (i.e. pro-Russia) but actually hate the AfD.
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Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
If BSW don't get in, assume AfD lose first two investiture votes, then CDU have a choice as to whether go for another election or abstain and let AfD form minority government? Though as you say could also be individual rebels.
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Polls have closed in Saxony-Anhalt and exit polls put result on a knife edge (AfD 41 seats, others 42). First projections based on actual results due out soon. But if exit polls are right this is a rupture in the history of the federal republic.
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
🚨 New paper! For @carnegieendowment.org, I argue that uncertainties about 🇩🇪's geopolitical position (west-v-east) and size (middle-v-great power) fundamentally mark its foreign-policy debates, and thus explain why AfD is so aloof among other far-right parties. carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
carnegieendowment.org
The Alternative für Deutschland and Germany’s Unsettled Place in the World
Unresolved tensions within the AfD may ultimately constrain the its potential as a leader among European and global populist forces.
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Remarkably high turnout in Saxony-Anhalt state election. Polls close at 18:00 CET, with first projections due not long afterwards.
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
A few things (international) commentatoes should remember. Only 2 million people live in Sachsen-Anhalt. Half of Berlin, a tenth of NRW. Around 400k will vote AfD. Even with this strong result, 80% of people living in S-A will not have voted for the AfD. In a state that is a far-right stronghold.
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Anton Dekker 🚲 / AntonDekker@mastodon.nl @antondekker44.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Including prospects and implications for a not unlikely new Red-Green coalition
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Nine days to go until Sweden's general election, which could return the Social Democrats to power. For @ecfr.eu's New Politics Project, @matsengstrom.bsky.social reports from his behind-the-scenes conversations on what this would mean for 🇸🇪's place in Europe: ecfr.eu/article/afte...
ecfr.eu
After Tidö: What a centre-left Sweden would change for Europe – European Council on Foreign Relations
Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats is the favourite to become Sweden's next prime minister, but only after months of hard coalition bargaining. Who she
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Striking catch-up by SPD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania ahead of state election on 20 September. Having lagged AfD by 10+ points for months it's now only 3 points behind. Confirms Manuela Schwesig, SPD's minster president in the state, as a rising force in the party.
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Fascinating read about James Orr, Reform UK's policy head, and his place in wider European radical right networks: www.ft.com/content/c2d0...
ft.com
James Orr and the gospel of the new British right
Reform’s policy head is a Cambridge theologian with an enviable contact book and a belief in ‘faith, family and flag’
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 02/09/2026
Germany holding Russia responsible for the drone attack at Leipzig airport has added urgency to the debate over how to counter drone threats from foreign actors. Europe should adapt lessons from the eastern flank to protect its critical infrastructure ecfr.eu/publication/...
ecfr.eu
Buzzkill: How to defend Europe against drones – European Council on Foreign Relations
Drone warfare in Europe is no longer tomorrow’s problem. The continent is under attack by drones today, and the threat is not isolated in the east.
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Jana Puglierin @jpuglierin.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
My latest, with @jankaoertel.bsky.social. Actually, maybe: How German Angst could become Europe’s nightmare: ecfr.eu/article/actu...
ecfr.eu
Actually, maybe: How German Angst could become Europe’s nightmare – European Council on Foreign Relations
Germany’s political centre is crumbling—but its leaders appear unable to get ahead of the impending crisis
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FT @fucktheory.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Imagine being talented and beautiful and rich and famous and still the most noteworthy thing about you is how good a person you are.
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Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 25/08/2026
It recalls the piece Vessela and I wrote quite a lot ecfr.eu/article/trum...
ecfr.eu
Trump’s new Yalta: Eastern Europe risks being on the wrong side of the divide – European Council on Foreign Relations
Donald Trump has a radical economic agenda—and a developing allyship with Vladimir Putin. The EU needs to protect Europe’s eastern flank from corruption and the kleptocrats who could further isolate i...
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Interesting read on the post-Trump "new right" and its Schmittian civilizationism. Including this warning for Europe that belies wishful thinking about a post-2028 return to Atlanticist business as usual ⬇️ www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 21/08/2026
Europe faces a dual drone threat. Every time an overflight of critical infrastructure or incursion at the eastern flank happens, wherever it comes from, Russia learns something about Europe’s ability to fight (or otherwise) against these systems. By @rikefranke.bsky.social ecfr.eu/publication/...
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
With less than a month to go now until Berlin's state election, a plurality of Berliners want a "red-red-green" governing coalition over the alternatives.
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Two things about German politics that can be true at the same time: 1/ The AfD is now well ahead of other parties on 27-28%, much complicating mainstream politics. 2/ Germany's two most popular politicians are pro-Ukraine, pro-climate figures on the centre-left.
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