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Coleman R Hawkins

@colemanrhawkins.bsky.social
561 followers 100 following 508 posts

“Good theory indicates how to carve a system at the joints.”

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Coleman R Hawkins @colemanrhawkins.bsky.social · 04/04/2026
@transverseslice.bsky.social fyi x.com/colemanrhawk... can't send a DM cuz I'm locked out till I verify that I'm over 18 (Aust. law)
x.com
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Sky Marchini @sky.skymarchini.net · 25/03/2026
UH [alex ward is the national security reporter at WSJ]
Alex Ward
@alexbward
At least 3 congressional Republicans—including chairs of House and Senate Armed Services—are hinting strongly that a ground operation in Iran is planned and could potentially be underway soon
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Connor O'Brien
@connorobrienNH
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Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker, asked about what Rogers said about not getting enough info on Iran, says: “Let me put it this way: I can see why he might have said that.” x.com/connorobriennh…
3:35 PM · Mar 25, 2026
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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics: Recession risk high and rising.
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Kai Ryssdal @kairyssdal.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
My girlfriend lives in Canada
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Heather Cox Richardson (TDPR) @hcrichardson.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
His whole life, Trump has always had someone else around to bail him out of the messes he creates: his father, Allen Weisselberg, the "adults in the room" in his first term. Now all those protectors are gone and he is openly begging for someone to save him from his own folly.
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Coleman R Hawkins @colemanrhawkins.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Resigned from side-gig of getting told to fuck myself by the BOD of a failing non-profit. Wanted a 3rd party to spend on ads & didn't want to hear we might trigger a tax liability on the order of 50%+ of our cash. Dismissed my concerns and implied they would overrule. Cool. Bye.
media.tenor.com
a man is giving a thumbs up while holding a spray bottle in his hand .
ALT: a man is giving a thumbs up while holding a spray bottle in his hand .
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NBC News @nbcnews.com · 11/03/2026
BREAKING: U.S. launches investigations into top trading partners like the E.U., China and Mexico, a process that is expected to lead to new tariffs.
nbcnews.to
Trump launches the next phase of his trade war with new investigations of key partners
The probes could result in fresh tariffs on imports from 16 major trade partners, including China and the European Union.
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liborpluscap.bsky.social @liborpluscap.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
Control social media or it will control you
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Dr. Samantha Hancox-Li @sjshancoxli.liberalcurrents.com · 03/02/2026
obviously he's done great work in the past but i think being a Public Intellectual has absolutely destroyed him
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Garrett M. Graff @vermontgmg.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
A reminder that the Kennedy Center is the literal and legal and congressional designated presidential memorial to JFK. This would be like Trump tearing down the Lincoln Memorial to build something “better.”
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Coleman R Hawkins @colemanrhawkins.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
Once I wrap my head around Gödel, it's over for you bitches
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Tod Davies @toddavies.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
I'm proud to say I'm one of those who loathed Larry Summers before it was fashionable.
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Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
That moment when you’re reading Thucydides and hit this passage just before the start of the war: “Abstinence from all injustice to other first-rate powers is a greater tower of strength than anything that can be gained by the sacrifice of permanent tranquility for an apparent temporary advantage.”
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Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
“Professors are fighting an asymmetric battle against the tide of anti-intellectualism, illiberalism and bad-faith complaints, and will be for the foreseeable future.”
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Sharon 🪳🌹 @sharonk.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
no one wants to work anymore (FX edition)
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Jesper Padkær Petersen @padkaer.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
Excellent long read by @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/independ...
open.substack.com
The US economy, Trump, and Bessent are weaker than you (and they) think.
It’s been a bad week for Trump: Mark Carney stole the Davos show with his masterful speech, and Europe made him TACO on Greenland.
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Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 17/01/2026
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Peter Baker @peterbakernyt.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
Trump escalates his attack on Minnesota Democrats as Justice Department launches a criminal investigation into Gov Walz and Mayor Frey apparently on the theory that their objections to ICE amount to illegal interference, sources tell @perrystein.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
washingtonpost.com
Justice Dept. launches criminal investigation of Minnesota governor
The Justice Department has issued subpoenas for Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey as part of an investigation into impeding law enforcement.
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liborpluscap.bsky.social @liborpluscap.bsky.social · 11/01/2026
Bring it!!
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Zach Ota @zachota.bsky.social · 11/01/2026
If Greenland is truly under threat from Russia or China, then it’s our duty to defend our NATO ally, Denmark. It’s as simple as that.
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Micah @rincewind.run · 11/01/2026
“A diplomatic source said: 'The generals think Trump's Greenland plan is crazy and illegal. So they are trying to deflect him with other major military operations. They say it's like dealing with a five-year-old'.” what the fuck have we tried turning the country off and back on again
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Coleman R Hawkins @colemanrhawkins.bsky.social · 10/01/2026
Donald Trump offered an ominous warning in his ongoing campaign to acquire Greenland. During his meeting with oil and gas executives today, the president said “we are going to do something on Greenland whether they like it or not”.
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NainRouge420 @nainrouge420.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
What a world huh

Lemon it’s still struggling to be born
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liborpluscap.bsky.social @liborpluscap.bsky.social · 16/02/2025
The older I get the more im like " if I was very accomplished and had xyz money I would love to suport ABC cause" and the more I think about it the more those ABC causes would likely align with Soros and Open Society. he really went out, got the bag and then tried to help out. the GOAT
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Coleman R Hawkins @colemanrhawkins.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
politico.eu
Trump: ‘It may be a choice’ between seizing Greenland or preserving NATO
“I don’t need international law,” the U.S. president said in an interview with The New York Times.
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Boo!-per Lund @cooperlund.online · 04/01/2026
The amount of “this is clearly about oil” posting across all platforms as story after story comes out where the oil industry is saying that the oil isn’t worth extracting is making me feel a little insane
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Prem Thakker ツ @premthakker.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
New: Trump admin officials tell Zeteo that Trump is “very interested” in secret plans drawn up last year to send US Special Forces into Mexico. One official even says Trump recently asked for updates on preparations for a possible operation.
zeteo.com
After Trump’s Venezuela Invasion, Mexico Could Be Next
Officials tell Zeteo that Trump remains ‘very interested’ in the idea of sending US Special Forces into Mexico, as the president threatens Colombia and Cuba, too.
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Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
Trump's audacious and probably illegal capture of a Venezuelan leader of doubtful legality suggests he believes he has the right to intervene, i.e. grab what he wants, anywhere in the western hemisphere. Europe, already worried by Trump's Greenland rhetoric, has been warned
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James Ball @jamesrball.com · 03/01/2026
Kidnapping the leader of a foreign state without any declaration of war and announcing it via social media is full-on rogue state stuff. From the world’s number one superpower.
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Spreadsheet enjoyer 🇨🇦🇪🇺 @bluser12.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
this is the dumbest shit I have ever read in my life
@chamath
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3h
I think this is the most asymmetric upside bet in the market now. Position yourself smartly and you can make 10-1000x with relative ease. 

How?

Even if politicians try to bury the fraud, the bond market can’t ignore it. Their math will show that even if the fraud is only 10% of total state and municipal budgets, it’s already way too much and should go to paying back debt holders. 

Right now spreads don’t reflect this and are too tight - ie look at California Credit Default Swaps - it doesn’t reflect any fraud, budget shortfalls or the billionaire exodus. 

There is little chance these spreads don’t move as the bond market comes back to work and processes the events of the last few days. 

Now, if instead of 10% fraud, they believe that fraud is 20-30% of all tax dollars, the cost of borrowing will escalate sharply until federal, state and local governments are forced to act. 

This is when the CDS trade becomes the most asymmetric profit opportunity of our lifetime. 

Buy the CDS -> wait for politicians to try and bury it -> ie in California -> see the bond market increase borrowing costs -> see the CDS blow out -> asymmetric bet pays off. 

The takeaway here is that the bond market lives in an alternative and adjacent universe from the politicians and media. The latter group can try to bury an issue but when the former group is asked to fund it, a reckoning happens and the former group always wins.
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James E. Thorne
@DrJStrategy
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9h
What if …

What if the real fiscal revolution isn’t higher taxes or austerity, but rooting out fraud? Imagine if the bond vigilantes finally woke up to the fact that reducing government fraud and waste could shrink the defic
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Rod Van Meter @rdvquantum.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
@paulblustein.bsky.social are you seeing this? apnews.com/article/inte...
apnews.com
Cut off by their banks and even iced out by Alexa, sanctioned ICC staffers remain resolute
International Criminal Court judges and prosecutors are trying to live and work under the same financial and travel restrictions brought against Russian President Vladimir Putin and Osama bin Laden.
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Shipwreck @shipwreck75.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
Friedrich Merz, Chancellor of Germany
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Spencer Ackerman @attackerman.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
They're using the confinement box, one of the most horrific methods of CIA torture in the post-9/11 black sites, against migrants now. This is the direct result of the lack of consequences for the architects of the torture program. Either there will be criminal penalties for this or it will expand.
forever-wars.com
Torture Techniques from CIA Black Sites Were Used at Alligator Alcatraz
Amnesty International, interviewing migrant detainees, identifies use of the confinement box. There can be no denying it is a torture prison
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Jonathan Lemire @jonlemire.bsky.social · 06/12/2025
NEW: www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 06/12/2025
Prime Minister of Poland. 🇵🇱
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David Burbach 🇺🇸 @dburbach.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY DROPPED There is a LOT here, but omg NATO allies are going to seethe at this paragraph www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
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Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.eu · 05/12/2025
US national security strategy. Something sure is unrecognisable here, but it’s not Europe. www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...

But this economic decline is eclipsed by the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure. The larger issues facing Europe include activities of the European Union and other transnational bodies that undermine political liberty and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife, censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition, cratering birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence.
Should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less. As such, it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies. Many of these nations are currently doubling down on their present path. We want Europe to remain European, to regain its civilizational self-confidence, and to abandon its failed focus on regulatory suffocation
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Moira Donegan @moiradonegan.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
One thing I always want to ask these masculinity entrepreneurs is why men can’t look to women as role models, and can’t see in women models of human virtue and thriving that are worth emulating. After all, women look to men for these all the time.
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 03/12/2025
👍👍👍👍
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James @gravitysra1nbow.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
Damn they didn’t even hesitate to throw his ass under the bus huh?
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David Roberts @volts.wtf · 30/11/2025
Lol, Zillow tried to rate the climate risks facing individual properties. The real estate industry *hated* it, precisely because it worked -- it made selling risky properties more difficult. So they rebelled & Zillow caved. Don't look up!
nytimes.com
Zillow Removes Climate Risk Scores From Home Listings
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Brandon Friedman @brandonfriedman.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
To put a finer point on this whole thing: "Two people with direct knowledge of the operation" — presumably uniformed military leaders — are accusing the U.S. Secretary of Defense of personally ordering specific war crimes. That's a historic accusation.
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Garrett M. Graff @vermontgmg.bsky.social · 29/11/2025
In case you’re wondering why Pete Hegseth is freaking out about a congressional video reminding the military not to participate in illegal orders:
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Coleman R Hawkins @colemanrhawkins.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
Good interview with Alex Hammond-Chambers of Ivory & Sime pedigree.
walterscott.com
Alex Hammond-Chambers reflects on culture and leadership – Walter Scott & Partners – Bespoke Equity Portfolio Management
Our outgoing Chair discusses recruiting Dr Walter Scott and what’s changed in 60 years of investment management.
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Motorhead @bradmunchen.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
I don't see how Tesla's Model 3 can survive if Benz can offer an alternative EV this cheap, with this kind of performance, on top of the 15% tariff that it's charged in the US. Imagine what this model does to Tesla in Europe, where Benz pays no tariffs.
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Brian Bird @nasicournus.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
I don't know about you but the way my brain works is by analyzing the contents of the entire internet to make an educated guess about what word I should use next.
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