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Erik Fossing Nielsen

@erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social
1.9K followers 191 following 251 posts

Sr Advisor ‘Independent Economics’ Former Chief Economist, UniCredit, Chief European Economist, Goldman Sachs, former World Bank, IMF, Danish central bank.

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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
The case for urgent changes to European financial regulation and taxation to discourage our continued financing of the US fiscal deficit. The financial risks have become excessive. independenteconomics.substack.com/p/europe-sho...
independenteconomics.substack.com
Europe should stop financing the American house of cards.
Europe should stop financing the unsustainable US budget and overextended oligopolistic private sector. The money should be invested in Europe instead.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Through all the noise about daily changes in yields, I recommend keeping fundamentals in mind. And when it comes to fiscal sustainability in a politically realistic world no chart is more important that this one: interest obligations to pay as percent of revenue.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Trump’s approval rate of 33% raises two questions: At the 2024 election, roughly 1/3 votes for Trump, 1/3 for Harris and 1/3 didn’t bother (all give ir take a million or two). So what does an all time low of 33% really mean? What the hell are those 33% thinking?
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Reposted by Erik Fossing Nielsen
Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Germans are among the most hawkish Europeans on China, per new ECFR poll which will surprise many 40% see China primarily as a rival - miles ahead of France, Sweden, Estonia, Poland etc Just 35% of Germans see China as a "necessary partner", 2nd lowest behind only France
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Did the EU bite back last year? I must have missed it. From here it looked like a humiliating rollover.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
With all respect, Christian, “investors” say all sorts of things (also about stuff they absolutely know nothing about). That it’s “a scenario” - sure. Whether ifs “a plausible scenario” I would reply on someone with proven expertise in economics, finance, and politics within the European context.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
🤣
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
Europe must invest heavily in AI before it’s too late, including by using the next EU budget. Our reliance on the US and/or China carries unacceptable risks. Has the Draghi Report become a distraction rather than the intended roadmap? open.substack.com/pub/independ...
open.substack.com
The EU must use its budget to join the AI race. Has the Draghi Report become a distraction?
While Europe is occupied with the complexities of the Draghi Report's recommendations, the more important gap between Europe and the US - in AI - has been left unaddressed. This must change.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Thank you to Deutsche Welle for inviting me to join today’s debate about the outlook for Germany. I found myself on the relatively optimistic side of the debate. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uyp2...
youtube.com
Recovery or ruin: Can Germany escape the crisis?  | To the Point
YouTube video by DW News
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
In today’s Sunday Wrap: My impressions from the ECB Forum in Sintra. Very encouraging, both from the ECB and Kevin Warsh’s first international outing as Fed Chair open.substack.com/pub/independ...
open.substack.com
Impressions from the ECB Forum in Sintra.
Sintra was encouraging in several ways, including the clarity about the ECB's reaction function as well as the impression of Kevin Warsh at his first international outing as Fed chair.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
Happy summer solstice from a changed Denmark: open.substack.com/pub/independ...
open.substack.com
Welcome to summer solstice in Denmark
Getting ready for our annual summer solstice fest. Come join us...
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 07/06/2026
In the attached note I discuss how Trump’s reversal of US policy support for science, immigration and foreign capital investment in the US spells trouble for continued US supremacy in AI. open.substack.com/pub/independ...
open.substack.com
Cumulating Risks to AI-led Growth
US leadership in AI rests on past governments' support for science, immigration, and foreign capital. President Trump has reversed those policies and replaced them with clientelism.
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Reposted by Erik Fossing Nielsen
Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
What do Europe's tech successes tell us about what is needed to nurture the next ones? I thought this piece was very good. www.cer.eu/insights/eur...
cer.eu
Europe has produced tech champions: Here is what they can teach us
Despite the gloom about its place in the digital economy, Europe has produced tech leaders.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
In today’s note: Beyond the June central bank meetings, the Fed will be undermined by fiscal dominance, and the ECB needs to reckon with the fact that its interpretation of inflation targeting may not work in times of frequent shocks. open.substack.com/pub/independ...
open.substack.com
Inflation Targeting Has Been Oversold: A Reckoning Lies Ahead.
Beyond the June central bank meetings, deeper challenges loom: fiscal dominance for the Fed and the limits of inflation targeting for the ECB amid recurring external price shocks.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
I would suggest a caveat to that: The debate is critically important, but it would benefit from a strong leader to lead it. Starmer can lead that debate now, one must wonder why he didn’t do so these past two years?
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Agreed. And stunning to read that he claims that between managing relations with Trump’s US, China and the East, “relations with Europe” are the most difficult.
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Reposted by Erik Fossing Nielsen
Simon Nixon @nixonsimon.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
As a simple matter of history, this from Tony Blair is plain wrong. The last time Britain entered a structured relationship with Europe, it was for a position of profound economic weakness. Rejoining should be part of any coherent domestic strategy, as many in Labour are starting to acknowledge
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
With all respect, this is not a persuasive piece. To begin with, for this analysis, why compare GDP growth instead of GDP pr capita GDP growth? Indeed, cumulative Italian real per capita GDP growth since 2021 has about 1pp stronger than the eurozone average.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
Europe can - and should - react more forcefully to the coercive policies, and general intimidation, by the US, China and Russia. It has the means to do so! open.substack.com/pub/independ...
open.substack.com
Europe should respond more forcefully to foreign countries' coercive policies. It has the power to do so
Europe is under triple attacks from the US, China and Russia. Too often, the responses are too modest, which encourage further aggression. Europe has the means to fight back if it wants to. It should.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
This should not surprise anyone. EU membership for the UK would be beneficial also on terms like other members. No need to beg for privileges.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Booo!
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
I think that’s right. But even before we get to that concern I suspect they feel they have plenty of other urgent issues to deal with these days. Plus: Particularly for Metz and Macron, there’s no incentive to tell their own population that you can leave EU - and then return if you dont like it.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
Reflections on the UK’s dreadful elections last Thursday: 2 big questions need to be addressed: Relations with the EU continue- and the gap between taxation and the population’s demand for (EU level) public services. open.substack.com/pub/independ...
open.substack.com
The UK in political free fall. Two big questions need to be addressed
Thursday's local elections revealed a deeply "Divided Kingdom" and the end of Starmer. The UK must now define relations with EU - and close the gap between low taxation and people's welfare demands.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
US and eurozone Q1 GDP - more alike than meets the eye. And how the US debt fuelled economy cannot last. Powell says at the Fed to fight the forthcoming attempt at monetarisation open.substack.com/pub/independ...
open.substack.com
Growth, inflation, and monetary policy in the US and Europe: Q1
US and eurozone GDP growth was more alike in Q1 than suggested by the headline numbers. With US debt still fuelling the economy, threatening monetarisation, Jay Powell decided to stay at the Fed.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 26/04/2026
Global imbalances: Sinners, victims and reactions … weaker dollar, higher US yields, and risk of more protectionism. open.substack.com/pub/independ...
open.substack.com
Global imbalances: When policies don’t adjust, something else will, namely markets and politics
Global imbalances are about US fiscal irresponsibility and China's predatory trade policy. But Europe and the rest of the world stand to suffer. Protective, but constructive, policies are needed.
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Reposted by Erik Fossing Nielsen
carpinus.bsky.social @carpinus.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
Dollar …
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Markus Marterbauer @markusmarterbauer.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
„The dollar in trouble. Large depreciation ahead.“ Ziemlich überzeugende Analyse der möglicherweise bevorstehenden Finanzkrise in den USA.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
The forthcoming major dollar depreciation. It’s the economy (and balance sheets), stupid. open.substack.com/pub/independ...
open.substack.com
The dollar in trouble. Large depreciation ahead.
The US has become the most indebted major economy to the rest of the world - by far. Policies are making it worse, not better. Big, and wide-spread, market correction ahead during 2026-27.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
🙃
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
Central bank communication this past week’s in reaction to the commodity price shock: Great handling by the ECB - and Fed also okay (helped bh good news from Powell), while BoE messed it up. open.substack.com/pub/independ...
open.substack.com
Monetary policy communication in difficult times.
Reflections on this past week: excellent from the ECB, relief that Powell will stay at the FOMC (standing up to Trump), a mess-up by the Bank of England.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
This is a better link to the same article. If you want to to subscribe (it’s free), please use this one: open.substack.com/pub/independ...
open.substack.com
Monetary policy in times of trouble.
The price shock triggered by the US-Israeli attack on Iran complicates monetary policy in Europe and elsewhere. For central banks, words will speak louder than actions.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
Monetary policy in times of trouble! Price shocks and Mon pol … Words will speak louder than action open.substack.com/pub/erikfoss...
open.substack.com
Monetary policy in times of trouble.
The price shock triggered by the US-Israeli attack on Iran complicates monetary policy in Europe and elsewhere. For central banks, words will speak louder than actions!
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
Europe the Beautiful Can’t beat it - latest illustrations from politics, the economy and markets (and verified on my hardship assignment to the French province) open.substack.com/pub/independ...
open.substack.com
Europe the Beautiful!
February has delivered important illustrations of the beauty of Europe, particularly compared with the US, across policy decisions, economic and markets performances - and confirmed by a fieldtrip...
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
As many of us “fundamental economists” have been predicting for a long time - without (before you claim you bought at $100) ever pretending we knew the turning point.
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Reposted by Erik Fossing Nielsen
Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
The US economy, Trump and Bessent: Outperformed and outplayed by Europe: open.substack.com/pub/independ...
open.substack.com
The US economy, Trump, and Bessent are weaker than you (and they) think.
It’s been a bad week for Trump: Mark Carney stole the Davos show with his masterful speech, and Europe made him TACO on Greenland.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
For pure numbers: Statistics Finland, Eurostat (or ChatGPT if you are lazy) For research - good place to start: OECD Finland report 2025 Bank of Finland Nordic Investment Bank research
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
🙏🙏🙏
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
The US economy, Trump and Bessent: Outperformed and outplayed by Europe: open.substack.com/pub/independ...
open.substack.com
The US economy, Trump, and Bessent are weaker than you (and they) think.
It’s been a bad week for Trump: Mark Carney stole the Davos show with his masterful speech, and Europe made him TACO on Greenland.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
ICE - cheap, safe and pretty good public transportion here in Europe.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
I’m now waiting for Musk to forward this story and place it at the top of my feed, as he does with most other things. (Maybe he is still struggling how to word the clarification that this is not just BYD expanding, but Tesla shrinking?)
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 26/12/2025
Letter: Brexiters showed a naive understanding of how Europe works
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 25/12/2025
🙏🙏🙏
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 25/12/2025
🙏🙏🙏
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 25/12/2025
Thank you. You are right: It depends on what one includes in healthcare, but 2-3 times is more accurate. Thanks for pointing out.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
🙏🙏🙏
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
10 lessons from 2025 - and one central prediction for the year ahead: open.substack.com/pub/independ...
open.substack.com
Year-end reflections: 10 lessons from 2025 – and one key prediction.
I reflect on the year that has passed. I summarise 10 key lessons I learned – and I make one prediction for 2026, namely that there is still no better place to live, and invest, than in Europe.
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
Scandinavia got this one right!
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
Thanks @deutschewelle.dw.com for including me in yesterday’s debate on Europe’s strengths - at a time of renewed attacks by Trump. We could all agree that Trump is wrong - and that Europe needs to act in response to this new world m.youtube.com/watch?v=yFRq...
m.youtube.com
A Continent of Power: Does Europe Know Its True Strength? | To The Point
YouTube video by DW News
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Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 07/12/2025
Europe is about to step up in security matters, starting with the main to Ukraine, but Commission President has been distracted from her job leading the economic reform agenda. Three recent reports illustrate the wilderness she is in. open.substack.com/pub/independ...
open.substack.com
Europe is finding its feet again
Europe is about to agree an era-defining support package for Ukraine, supported by the European Commission. In economic policy matters, however, the Commission president seems to have lost her way.
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