Reposted by Christopher CallahanNew York Times Opinion @nytopinion.nytimes.com · 11/10/2026"The age of accountability for the fossil fuel industry has just begun and has a bright future," Jeff Goodell writes. "The reason for that is the emergence of a powerful field of climate science known as attribution science." nyti.ms/4jcT2XS 14515
Reposted by Christopher CallahanEric Roston @eroston.bsky.social · 08/10/2026El Niñissimo! www.bloomberg.com/news/article... 32118
Reposted by Christopher Callahanlauren @lauren.rotatingsandwiches.com · 08/10/2026me: I dunno, I still like the guys on the team but I'm sympathetic to the argument seeing the Dodgers win in the playoffs every year is boring (braves fans start doing the chop) me: General McPherson I summon and bind thee to these boys' bats. Claim your vengeance 1578083
Reposted by Christopher CallahanCarl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 07/10/2026Terry Tao @teorth.bsky.social: Indiscriminate brute-force application of AI to mathematics is depleting the field of good questions without renewing this resource or providing commensurate value. OpenAI: We hear you. Here's a .zip file with 377 hasty AI solutions to important open problems.nytimes.comOpenAI Releases Findings on 377 Math Problems, Further Roiling Field (Gift Article)After a previous solution angered mathematicians, the company characterized the new release as being more responsive to concerns about A.I. disrupting research. 19417121
Reposted by Christopher CallahanChris Hayes @chrislhayes.bsky.social · 07/10/2026No AI for kids. Full stop. 2245277911
Christopher Callahan @ccallahan45.bsky.social · 07/10/2026Well I wasn’t a fan of that either…But here, it’ll be harder to see the poster you want without bumping into people looking at the poster next to it. The hall is crowded enough to begin with. As with the talks, presenters are asked to work with less and less “space” (literally and figuratively) 141
Christopher Callahan @ccallahan45.bsky.social · 07/10/2026Sorry to the organizers who work really hard but this sucks 1130
Reposted by Christopher CallahanDan Garisto @dangaristo.bsky.social · 06/10/2026NEW: In March the White House released an FY27 budget request that zeroed out the National Science Foundation's directorate of Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences (SBE). For months it was unclear what would happen. Now, with FY26 over, the damage to SBE is coming to light. My reporting:science.org‘Complete devastation’: How NSF gutted its social sciences researchAgency body that funds sociology, linguistics, and archaeology studies in U.S. gave 90% fewer new grants this year 9662515
Reposted by Christopher CallahanDaniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 06/10/2026Just did some number crunching using latest (Oct 1) ECMWF seasonal data, and I must say that I've never seen such high predictive confidence in a very wet California winter. This is a truly extraordinary forecast amid a record-strength El Niño event. [Thread: please read to end.] 16564232
Reposted by Christopher CallahanChristopher Callahan @ccallahan45.bsky.social · 06/10/2026"Attribution science...helps us see a storm or a heat wave or a flood not as an act of a god or the whim of Mother Nature, but as a disaster that has been knowingly shaped or intensified by particular human actions." great piece by @jeffgoodell.bsky.social today www.nytimes.com/2026/10/06/o...nytimes.comOpinion | The Science That Has Oil Companies Running ScaredHowever the U.S. Supreme Court rules, the work of holding oil companies accountable for climate change has a bright future. 12614
Christopher Callahan @ccallahan45.bsky.social · 06/10/2026"Attribution science...helps us see a storm or a heat wave or a flood not as an act of a god or the whim of Mother Nature, but as a disaster that has been knowingly shaped or intensified by particular human actions." great piece by @jeffgoodell.bsky.social today www.nytimes.com/2026/10/06/o...nytimes.comOpinion | The Science That Has Oil Companies Running ScaredHowever the U.S. Supreme Court rules, the work of holding oil companies accountable for climate change has a bright future. 12614
Christopher Callahan @ccallahan45.bsky.social · 06/10/2026She has a song called Never Look Away which might be my favorite track of all time 110
Reposted by Christopher CallahanBread @jacobreaded.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Alternative phrasing: 214616
Reposted by Christopher CallahanJosh Gondelman @joshgondelman.bsky.social · 05/10/2026I do not mean to single out LeBron James, but it feels completely bizarre to me that an active player is allowed to promote "prediction markets" but would get banned for life for using that service to bet ten dollars on their own team to win a game. 1963664678
Reposted by Christopher CallahanMark Histed @markhisted.org · 03/10/2026Killed. NSF’s SBE was killed, in violation of law. The President does not have the power to choose to kill programs at a whim by defunding them. The imperial presidency was a mistake and we are in a separation of powers constitutional crisis. 151456530
Reposted by Christopher CallahanErin J. Wamsley 🧠📈😴 @wamsleylab.bsky.social · 03/10/2026The fiscal year is over. The dying Social, Behavioral, and Economic division of NSF ended up awarding 90 total grants this year, as opposed to ~700-800 in recent past years. Source: grantwitness.org/nsf/analyses... 9491305
Reposted by Christopher CallahanMark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 03/10/2026~Approximately no one in the general public knows because the leaders of the R1 research universities - whose budgets, programs, & personnel are entirely or significantly dependent on federal funding - have been totally absent from the public square in explaining & collectively protesting this. 27787308
Christopher Callahan @ccallahan45.bsky.social · 02/10/2026some have even compared this to the question of the meaning of life... www.nature.com/articles/s41...nature.comThe question of life, the universe and event attribution - Nature Climate ChangeWeather and climate service providers around the world are looking to issue assessments of the human role in recent extreme weather events. For this attribution to be of value, it is important that vu... 030
Christopher Callahan @ccallahan45.bsky.social · 02/10/2026great question tbh! One reason why I don’t work on hurricanes that much :) Storyline attribution studies often just try to quantify intensity change and say unconditional probability is not relevant/a separate question. But that may be unsatisfying for some settings/applications… 010
Christopher Callahan @ccallahan45.bsky.social · 02/10/2026“The patient is very sick, very vain, and almost unbelievably stupid; his heirs and viziers are loose throughout the world, trying to take as much as they can before any of the institutions notionally charged with stopping this sort of thing bestir themselves to mildly inconvenience that predation.” 110
Reposted by Christopher CallahanAdam Becker @adambecker.bsky.social · 01/10/2026165 years ago TODAY, Charles Darwin had a normal one. "I am very poorly today & very stupid & hate everybody & everything. One lives only to make blunders.— I am going to write a little Book for Murray on orchids & today I hate them worse than everything…" I think about this letter a lot.darwinproject.ac.ukTo Charles Lyell 1 October [1861] | Darwin Correspondence Project 311435
Christopher Callahan @ccallahan45.bsky.social · 01/10/2026the point about damage functions is just to say that because damage functions generally depend on event intensity and not frequency, they provide a basis for preferring intensity approaches over frequency ones if impact attribution is the goal 000
Christopher Callahan @ccallahan45.bsky.social · 01/10/2026oh sure, i agree - and at least my corner of the community has totally moved from using frequency-change approaches for impact attribution precisely for this reason. totally reasonable to think through the implications, but I would basically only ever use intensity approaches for this type of calc 200
Christopher Callahan @ccallahan45.bsky.social · 01/10/2026yes, nice paper - this is why it's important to have a credible damage function that directly relates event intensity to an impact of interest, and then attribute that intensity. storyline-type attribution is particularly good for this. we explore this more here: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...pnas.orgQuantifying the contributions of climate change and adaptation to mortality from unprecedented extreme heat events | PNASUnderstanding the mortality effects of the most extreme heat events is central to climate change risk analysis and adaptation decision-making. Accu... 110
Christopher Callahan @ccallahan45.bsky.social · 30/09/2026A very fitting and timely episode, as conservative forces are once again gearing up to steal the emails of scientists (including mine) to help avoid accountability for climate change impacts www.politico.com/news/2026/09...politico.comInside the anti-climate campaign against researchersA POLITICO investigation reveals more than 100 open records requests demanding documents from climate scientists nationwide. 095
Reposted by Christopher CallahanEd BooOOooOOmila @edburmila.bsky.social · 30/09/2026[SENATOR ERIC SCHMITT]: So you’re telling me under oath that you’ve never spoken with a bestselling author who is insane [JACK SMITH]: No [SCHMITT]: WELL THEN *unveils poster* please explain this picture of you with Naomi Wolf! [SMITH]: That is Naomi Klein sir 241483200
Christopher Callahan @ccallahan45.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Does this look similar if you do it for Nino3 instead of 3.4? 100
Reposted by Christopher CallahanAndrew Dessler @andrewdessler.com · 29/09/2026Merchants of Doubt are going after extreme event attribution www.politico.com/news/2026/09...politico.comInside the anti-climate campaign against researchersA POLITICO investigation reveals more than 100 open records requests demanding documents from climate scientists nationwide. 12916
Reposted by Christopher CallahanDavid Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Congratulations to my friend @hollyjeanbuck.bsky.social for being a 2026 MacArthur Fellow. I always knew she was a genius and this confirms it. 🥳macfound.orgHolly Jean BuckInvestigating the social, ethical, and political dimensions of climate and energy policies and emerging technologies. 315223
Reposted by Christopher CallahanJessica Ellis @baddestmamajama.bsky.social · 29/09/2026I have separated the art from the artist and am now whipping the art to stiff peaks, after which I will gently fold it into the artist before baking at 350 til golden and puffed 3545511100
Reposted by Christopher CallahanChelsea Harvey @chelseaeharvey.bsky.social · 28/09/2026NEW - Conservative orgs are filing records requests by the dozens at public universities, demanding documents from climate researchers. @lesleyclark.bsky.social @corbinhiar.bsky.social & I have uncovered more than 100 requests, a campaign targets/allies say is an effort to derail climate litigationpolitico.comInside the anti-climate campaign against researchersA POLITICO investigation reveals more than 100 open records requests demanding documents from climate scientists nationwide. 111881
Reposted by Christopher CallahanLawrence Hurley @lawrencehurley.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Major u-turn from Justice Alito as Supreme Court reveals he will no longer participate in the big climate change case being argued next week. Previously, the court told NBC News there was no reason for him to step aside despite his earlier recusal in same case. 581271297
Reposted by Christopher CallahanMarc Alessi @marc-alessi.bsky.social · 28/09/2026New Commentary out in Nature Climate Action: we now live in a fundamentally different climate system due to the burning of fossil fuels. Because of this, any extreme weather event now occurs in a changed climate and is influenced by fossil fuel-driven climate change to some degree.nature.comThe next phase of climate attribution - npj Climate ActionAttribution science has transformed our understanding of how anthropogenic emissions shape extreme weather events, yet the field remains constrained by repeatedly demonstrating anthropogenic influence... 714877
Reposted by Christopher CallahanBob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 26/09/2026The literature about changes in nor’easters due to climate change is clear about two things: 1) more intense precipitation due to a warmer atmosphere, and 2) more extensive coastal flooding due to higher sea levels 315449
Christopher Callahan @ccallahan45.bsky.social · 25/09/2026they also have another brother who not-so-subtly suggested that people over 75 should be euthanized 010
Christopher Callahan @ccallahan45.bsky.social · 25/09/2026in fairness i believe this is ari emanuel not rahm. though i am sure rahm is no less of a freak 110
Christopher Callahan @ccallahan45.bsky.social · 25/09/2026both coffin flop and the ghost of christmas way future are the hardest i have laughed in months 000
Christopher Callahan @ccallahan45.bsky.social · 25/09/2026NYT best TV list didn't include Slings and Arrows. completely illegitimate exercise 000
Reposted by Christopher CallahanJustin S. Mankin @jsmankin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026"Pricing El Niño is not the same as preventing its loss of life. Yet, many of those acting on its forecasts are using them to move money, not people, out of harm’s way." My editorial for Science on why hedging El Niño is not the same as adapting to it: www.science.org/eprint/DU6FR...science.orgHedging El Niño isn’t the same as adapting to itRecord-setting warm waters slosh eastward across the tropical Pacific, forming El Niño. This recurrent climate pattern reconfigures severe weather worldwide, and with it, the global economy. Scientist... 17329
Christopher Callahan @ccallahan45.bsky.social · 25/09/2026sorry this is not material to your point but we JUST started watching ITYSL and i finally ... get it 100
Reposted by Christopher CallahanDavid_j_roth @davidjroth.bsky.social · 24/09/2026It's too depressing and obnoxious to write about, but virtually all of the doomy/horny AI hyperventilating is transparently displaced anxiety about our fucked climate and political situation. Even rich idiots know it's bad and being permitted to get worse. They're trying to write their own ending. 8460691070
Reposted by Christopher Callahansamuel mehr @mehr.nz · 23/09/2026after some in-depth discussions with my lab and also drawing on conversations on here, we've edited our new policy on AI usage in my lab feel free to adapt or re-use with attribution, or to reply to tell me how awful this policy is lol 1413342
Reposted by Christopher CallahanDr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 22/09/2026A classic El Niño impact: below-average monsoon rains in India. We're seeing a -15% deficit this year. India's top 5 rainfall deficit years all were during El Niño: 1877: -33% 1899: -29% 1918: -25% 1972: -24% 2009: -22% During moderate El Niño conditions in summer 2015, the deficit was -14%.indiatoday.in10 days left: Monsoon almost over, India's rain deficit at 15%, recovery bleakIndia's southwest monsoon is entering its final phase with a 15 per cent rainfall deficit still in place. With withdrawal set to begin over parts of northwest India, the window for any meaningful reco... 12311
Reposted by Christopher CallahanHenry Farrell @himself.bsky.social · 22/09/2026www.programmablemutter.com/p/machine-go... what it says on the packageprogrammablemutter.comMachine god metaphors eat your brainThere are other ways of thinking about AI 610830
Reposted by Christopher CallahanBob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 22/09/2026NEW PAPER: In a new paper, jointly published in @agu.org Earth's Future & @ametsoc.org BAMS, and co-led by Melissa Kenney, @costasamaras.com and me, 175 authors outline priorities to guide the future of scientific assessments of climate change in the United States. 🧵doi.orgResearch Priorities for Robust Climate Assessments in the United StatesA network of climate assessments plays a critical role in synthesizing the state of science to support evidence-based decision-making To support future U.S. and sub-national climate assessments, ... 114984
Reposted by Christopher CallahanSteven (with a PH) @sjksalisbury.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Christening a baby is nothing like christening a ship. I know that now. Once again I can only apologise. 161191523871