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Ben Moran

@benmoran.bsky.social
1.1K followers 485 following 546 posts

Intensivist/Anaesthetist. Novice Researcher & Statistician. PhD Cand. Chronic Pain after ICU & Longitudinal Causal Inference. Bayes-curious. #rstats #T1DM

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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
bsky.app/profile/benm...
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Wait until you add a covariate. Pure chaos!!
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The Onion @theonion.com · 16/09/2026
Gas Station Price Sign Using Scientific Notation
Gas Station Price Sign Using Scientific Notation
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Matt Kerlogue @matt.kerlogue.co.uk · 09/09/2026
It’s only causal inference if it comes from the Inférènce region of France, otherwise it’s just a sparkling correlation.
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Iván Díaz @idiaz.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
(1/22) Over the last few days I have been discussing the role of formal causal inference in RCTs, and in general the role of formalism and rigor in statistics in twitter with @f2harrell.bsky.social. Thread with an example for why both are fundamental for biomedical research:
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Raj LB @rajlb.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Nobody knows how paracetamol works www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Paracetamol (acetaminophen): A familiar drug with an unexplained mechanism of action
Paracetamol (acetaminophen) is undoubtedly one of the most widely used drugs worldwide. As an over-the-counter medication, paracetamol is the standard and first-line treatment for fever and acute p...
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Vincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Big news! 🎉 𝚖𝚊𝚛𝚐𝚒𝚗𝚊𝚕𝚎𝚏𝚏𝚎𝚌𝚝𝚜 1.0.0 for #Rstats is out. It’s a big number and it feels like a big step. I wrote a blog on the challenges of interpreting statistical models, SPEED, cool new features, the future, and a 5 year package development and writing odyssey. arelbundock.com/posts/margin...
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
In this special episode of Learning Bayesian Statistics, @alex-andorra.bsky.social is joined by Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari, and Richard McElreath to discuss Bayesian Workflow. From simulation and hierarchical pooling to causal inference, there’s a lot to unpack 🎧 lnkd.in/geX2QkxV #Bayesian
learnbayesstats.com
Bayesian Workflow - Gelman, Vehtari & McElreath
Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari, and Richard McElreath discuss their new book on Bayesian workflow, reverse Bayes and hierarchical pooling.
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Andrew Gelman et al. @statmodeling.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Bayesian Workflow free pdf! statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/08/25/b...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Bayesian Workflow free pdf! | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
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Lars Mølgaard Saxhaug @load-dependent.eurosky.social · 22/08/2026
Editors should not accept for publication papers using the phrase «real world evidence». It’s a marketing term, to embellish non-causal studies. #metasci #stats #cardiosky www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/...
ahajournals.org
Stopping Oral Anticoagulation After Catheter Ablation for Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With High Risk of Stroke: STOP‐OAC Study | Journal of the American Heart Association
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
I feel like you’ve violated my eyes!!
static.klipy.com
Simpsons: My Eyes, The Goggles Do Nothing!
ALT: Simpsons: My Eyes, The Goggles Do Nothing!
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
bsky.app/profile/benm...
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
All four books I've co-authored are freely available online for non-commercial use: - Bayesian Workflow at avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor... Links to other three books are in the quoted post 👇 (too many books to fit in one post!)
avehtari.github.io
Bayesian Workflow book: Website – Bayesian Workflow book
Website for the Bayesian Workflow book by Gelman, Vehtari, McElreath, et al. — case studies, code, and exercises in R and Stan.
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Ben Harrap @bharrap.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
The Statistical Society of Australia has a new President... No, it's not Randy the greyhound (although he would've done a fine job) It's me! If you want to know a little more about me, I have the blog post just for you :) benharrap.com/post/2026-08... #statssky #datascience
benharrap.com
Get to know the new President of the Statistical Society of Australia (it’s me) – Ben Harrap
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Wowsers!! Congrats Ben!! Truly awesome effort!
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
I, for one, welcome my new overlord
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Rafe Meager (they/them) @economeager.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
we have got to put that into a causal inference lecture
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 08/08/2026
New blog post in which we discover the secret to immortality: accounting errors. www.the100.ci/2026/08/08/m...
the100.ci
My Immortal Time Bias
Preamble: This shortie is my attempt to come up with an example that makes the problem underlying immortal time bias as obvious as possible.  In Japan, people who reach the age of 100 are handed a co...
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
I feel the same about the wakefield package! Genius! github.com/trinker/wake...
github.com
GitHub - trinker/wakefield: Generate random data sets
Generate random data sets. Contribute to trinker/wakefield development by creating an account on GitHub.
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
static.klipy.com
Do It
ALT: Do It
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Robin Blythe @rbly.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Me, once a month #statsky #rstats
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 30/07/2026
New blog post! Odds ratios are...a bit weird. Here I explain two problems (interpretation, non-collapsibility) and provide some simple recommendations for improved reporting. www.the100.ci/2026/07/30/r...
the100.ci
Reviewer notes: Odds ratios are really odd
When psychological researchers investigate binary outcomes, they routinely report odds ratios to quantify the strength of an effect or an association. This is quite understandable given that psycholog...
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
I prefer the term “The Enlightened”!
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Dude! Don’t be weird!!! 😁😉
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Jack Iwashyna @iwashyna.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Thank you for your kind words 2 responses: 1/ Source control is good for patients with sepsis, so if we can find the right patients, this could be more than just marginal for those patients 2/ ICU care in general is a game of inches; much of excellence is just cumulating marginal benefits, right?
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
It’s not nice to kink-shame the ML-bros (TM)! I am assuming it’s the bad kind of paddling, of course!
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Doesn’t exist anymore. One of the major tenets of the medical profession is to interfere with natural selection. I’ve got T1DM- I should’ve died at age 7. I’ve got bad genes that shouldn’t be propagated, but here I am, procreating with reckless abandon!! H/T to Idiocracy for the insight!
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
You know you’re getting old when the consultants look like interns!
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Yeah, but have you written a book about John Snow that when Nolan makes said movie, it will take you to a place of insurmountable money, sex and power!?!
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Hadas Weiss @hadas.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
It’s a tough read, especially from someone who has sold over 1M copies of their book since it was announced Nolan was making the movie.
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Sarcasm is my default though!! 😁
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
I was being sarcastic. I was referring to ye olde times (TM) when estimands were niche statistics, rather than mainstream. I’ll show myself out…
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Ha! These young ones with their gaming! They can’t even spell estimate properly!
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Critical Care Reviews @criticalcarereviews.com · 25/07/2026
Our latest blog is out: The Nothing-to-Lose Fallacy criticalcarereviews.com/2026/the-no…
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Holy shit!!!!! I was today years when I learned…
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Proper Dave @properdave.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
weird AI music: (person frowning & grimacing)

Weird Al music: (person looking thoughtfully approving. With Weird Al's hair, glasses, moustache, Hawaiian shirt, and accordion Photoshopped in)
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
I think we’ve reached the point that it is unethical to enrol critically ill patients into a vitamin C trial. It increases harm. Research funding is siphoned away from studies that may actually benefit pts.
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
100%!!!!!! I’ve banned the word AI in my house. My youngest calls them LLMs around me, although I’m sure he rebels when he’s with his friends! I suspect this battle will join other worthy ones: - Independent risk factors - The term “association” - WIYEMF!?!
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
I fear this is a losing battle, but I'm trying very hard to avoid using the term "AI". a word that can refer to anything from LLMs/GenAI through to control systems and prediction models through to linear regression has no useful meaning at all
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
happy pi approximation day (22/7) to all those who celebrate
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
I find that viewpoint fascinating! It explains some of our divergent views. Can you expand on your rationale? Also, is that a common belief in the US?
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
I agree with you that learning how to employ research into practice is not a trivial process. But observational research deserves the same rigor that we place on RCTs if we use it in our clinical practice.
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
I said they should understand the process of CI, just like they do for an RCT. There’s more obs research out there than RCTs, so I think that they should understand the process. Likewise I think that if you are actually doing obs research you should know the basics of CI (excl descriptive studies).
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Why? K isn’t that high (granted >5, but <10). The other thing I would also look at is the RE normality assumption and try different RE distributions (t, skew-normal, mixture).
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
My point was that clinicians incorporate research into their daily practice. They should be aware of the process of CI in observational studies to help with critiquing it. I’m not asking them to go and do it, but be aware of it and discard the crap.
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Absolutely agree with the clinical component, but that knowledge comes from somewhere. In Australia we do a research project to complete training, and the ability to have an overview of the process enables that understanding. Otherwise bad research can become the basis for those guidelines.
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
I agree with the sentiment in that I think they should know about the causal inference process: Causal estimand -> identification -> statistical estimand -> estimator -> estimate With quantitative bias analysis to test for identification assumption violations. This would stop a lot of pain.
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Duh, he’s a rapper from London. Dood, get with the times!!
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Ben Moran @benmoran.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
I’d be worried about RE identification with a small(ish) number of studies. Test: - Common-effect model - Arm-based model (one-stage) - RE model with informative priors on tau. At least with partial pooling you get shrinkage estimates. Then compare model fit with LOSO-CRPS.
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