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Aurélien Allard

@aurelienallard.bsky.social
746 followers 454 following 81 posts

Philosopher and Social Psychologist. Assistant professor at Nantes University. Studying justice, morality, replicability and open science. Personal website: aurelienallard.netlify.app

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Reposted by Aurélien Allard
Jeremy Freese @jeremyfreese.bsky.social · 8h
When it closed, the server was opened to reveal a little man who took a bow.
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 3h
My priors about chimp anti-sociality confirmed: They stole from "friends" 61% of trials, from non-friends 70% of trials. Continues to be one of the biggest puzzles about human evolution, which mechanisms and evolutionary history make humans qualitatively more cooperative than other apes.
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Alex Coppock @aecoppock.bsky.social · 18h
New from Hainmueller and Laitin on the causal effects of becoming a citizen on wages. Short story: the observational ests overstate the premium relative to the experimental ests. Authors conclude "observational averages should not be used as causal forecasts for policy" doi.org/10.1073/pnas...
screen shot of the article with "observational averages shouldnot be used as causal forecasts for policy" highlighted
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 21h
Two people at a cocktail party. One says: "I'm a fiction writer in the causal inference genre."
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Benjamin @benjaminschneider.ch · 21h
Werner Herzog will be the last human being whose next word no language model can predict
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Amanda J. Wright @ajwright.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Since our paper on the Changing How I Live Life (CHILL) Study is now out in Psychological Science (doi.org/10.1177/0956...), here's a LONG overdue post on the intervention work we've been doing the past few years! Have you ever wanted to change one of your personality traits?
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Justin Weinberg @dailynous.com · 29/09/2026
"The story about the analytic turn is more complicated than the McCarthyist thesis suggests..."
dailynous.com
Analytic Philosophy and McCarthyism: A New Look (guest post) - Daily Nous
To what extent is the “the story about the analytic turn” in philosophy a story about politics? There’s been an increased discussion in recent years […]
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Ian Hussey @ianhussey.mmmdata.io · 28/09/2026
Germany has cancelled funding for the German Cochrane Foundation. Bad news all around. Cochrane’s benefit to cost ratio is huge. @cochrane.org www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/wark...
sueddeutsche.de
Bund streicht renommierter Cochrane-Stiftung die Förderung
Die Cochrane-Stiftung, die seit Jahren die Nutzen medizinischer Therapien untersucht, soll künftig nicht mehr staatlich gefördert werden.
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ingmarvisser.bsky.social @ingmarvisser.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
This was a fantastic team effort across 30+ labs 🌍 Paper (open access), data & code all public. > 📄 doi.org/10.1111/desc... > 💻 github.com/manybabies/m... > #ManyBabies #InfantCognition #OpenScience #DevSci, lead team: Andreea Geambaşu, Melanie Soderstrom, and Claartje Levelt
doi.org
ManyBabies 3: A Multi‐Lab Study of Infant Algebraic Rule Learning
The ability to learn and apply rules lies at the heart of cognition. In a seminal study, Marcus et al. (1999) reported that 7-month-old infants learned abstract rules over syllable sequences and were...
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ingmarvisser.bsky.social @ingmarvisser.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
New paper 🍼📄 ManyBabies 3 is out (open access, registered report in Developmental Science). 30 labs, 33 languages, 839 infants set out to replicate a textbook finding: 7-month-olds learn abstract rules from speech (@garymarcus.bsky.social et al., 1999). We didn’t find it. 🧵
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Joe Noonan @joenoonan.se · 27/09/2026
My friend: "I don't know what to get my family for Christmas!" Me:
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 25/09/2026
I do find economists annoying sometimes, but they’re usually less annoying than the people who mindlessly hate on economists 😭
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Ian Hussey @ianhussey.mmmdata.io · 25/09/2026
"Systematic reviews are only as credible as the studies they include" INSPECT-SR was published yesterday, giving concrete guidance on how to exclude untrustworthy studies. Cochrane's statement: www.cochrane.org/about-us/new... Article: www.cochrane.org/about-us/new... Guidance: inspect-sr.com
cochrane.org
New tool helps researchers spot problematic trials before they distort evidence | Cochrane
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 25/09/2026
Now published in *Behavior Research Methods*: An LLM canary in the online data coalmine. LLMs solve Bayesian reasoning problems way better than people do. That capability gap can flag LLM contamination in online samples. rdcu.be/4Fw8jpGpkVpa
rdcu.be
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Kristian Steensen Nielsen @kristiansn89.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
🎯 What should we expect from behavior change interventions? Growing evidence suggests that most behavior change interventions have small effects on behavior. I regularly hear fellow behavioral scientists understandably feeling discouraged by this. But should we be discouraged? Not necessarily.🧵
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lastpositivist.bsky.social @lastpositivist.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The old line that analytic philosophy is answering questions that come naturally to toddlers via methods that come naturally to lawyers remains undefeated.
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Carsten Schwemmer @cschwem2er.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
1/6 What happens when you tell an AI browser: “Fill out this survey”? It fills out the survey. In our new study, led by @rtopinkova.bsky.social, we tested three consumer-facing agentic browsers without lengthy prompts, custom code, or technical fine-tuning.
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Rafe Meager (they/them) @economeager.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
if anyone tells you to cite my papers that is also paul
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moin syed @syeducation.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
New paper! Despite qualitative researchers claiming that generalizability is not a goal, their published work does indeed contain generalizable claims. We document this and provide recommendations for how all researchers can better calibrate their generalizability claims. doi.org/10.1177/2515...
article header for, "Qualitative Researchers Can and Do Generalize: Generalizability Claims in Qualitative Psychological Research". Metascience!
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Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 21/09/2026
📝 New article on Our World in Data: How high is current immigration to the United States, in historical perspective? Ask Americans about the top concerns for the United States, and immigration is rarely far from the top of the list.
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Nick Byrd, Ph.D. @byrdnick.com · 21/09/2026
Has ego depletion research been resurrected as “cognitive depletion”? “Study 2 [shows that] glucose levels, can modulate deliberative thinking…” doi.org/10.1080/0144... I have a memory of papers arguing that drinking glucose can’t directly change brain glucose. Is that false?
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Bart Penders @penders.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Back of the envelope calculations: 3600 years of research time went into the collective application process. The research will fund 3200 years of research. We are 400 research years poorer as a result of this. 1/2
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Minor Mobius @minormobius.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Good news everyone who is having a hard time picturing the solid, spin it around zoom in at Math.mino.mobi/szilassi
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Katie Mack @astrokatie.com · 20/09/2026
Apropos of the campus-setting novel I’m currently reading, I’d just like to put out there that I am available to authors to consult on what grad students and researchers and professors actually do and act like and my rates are reasonable.
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Joe Bak-Coleman @jbakcoleman.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
I got a *remarkably quick* rejection email from a tenure track job that I applied to. Rejections are part of the process! However, if you’re going to screen candidates with ai, please don’t ask for more than a cv and let us know! It’s a lot of time learning about your dept, writing and tailoring.
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Dan Quintana @dsquintana.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
New preprint! 🎉 I analysed 1660 papers from 4 psychology journals and found materials sharing went from 9% of papers in 2015 to 82% in 2025, and these materials *do* get downloaded — a median of 135 times each. BUT shared code is often hard to run. doi.org/10.31234/osf... Let's walk through it 🧵
Two-panel figure. Panel a is a flow diagram tracking 1,611 empirical psychology articles from publication year (545 in 2015, 552 in 2020, 514 in 2025) to repository-link type: 785 link an OSF project, 85 link another platform, and 741 link no repository. Of those with an OSF link, download counts were retrieved for 670 and not retrieved for 115. Panel b is a line chart of the share of empirical papers linking OSF across 2015, 2020 and 2025. The overall rate, shown as a dashed black line, rises from 9% to 57% to 82%. All four journals rise steeply and end close together: Psychological Science 92%, JESP 89%, JML 83%, Cognition 76%, with Psychological Science highest throughout.Three-panel figure. Panel a: ridgeline plot of downloads per file by material type on a log scale, with the percentage never downloaded labelled for each — archive 16% of 545 files, documents 20% of 2,970, code 12% of 3,471, other 17% of 1,646, data 21% of 10,051, media 35% of 2,120, images 35% of 4,102. Most files cluster between 1 and 10 downloads, with long right tails past 100. Panel b: ridgeline plot of downloads per paper by journal, log scale, with dashed median lines; Psychological Science is highest, then JESP, JML and Cognition. Panel c: stacked bars showing, for documents, data and code separately, the share of papers by download band (0, 1–10, 11–100, more than 100) in 2015, 2020 and 2025. The share exceeding 100 downloads falls sharply over time in all three types, from roughly two-thirds in 2015 to a quarter or less in 2025, as the 1–10 band grows.Four-panel figure. Panel a: statistical languages detected among 333 papers with retrievable code — R 88%, SPSS 12%, Stata 4%, SAS 1%. Panel b: code red flags among those 333 papers — 34% hard-code an absolute path, 40% reference a missing file — above documentation among 672 OSF-linked papers — 21% have a README, 30% are documented by README, description or wiki. Panel c: among 562 Elsevier papers with no repository link, 44% (245) host at least one journal supplementary file but only 14% (77) host data, code or an archive. Panel d: composition of those 448 hosted files — documents 52%, data 21%, media 9%, other 7%, archive 6%, code 3%, images 1%. The code panels are green, the journal-supplement panels blue.Coefficient plot (download predictors)

Dot-and-whisker plot of three standardised predictors of OSF download volume, each with a 95% confidence interval. Repository size (number of files) has the largest effect at about 0.76, citations about 0.38, and altmetric attention about 0.12. All three intervals sit entirely above zero, so each predicts more downloads, with repository size roughly twice the effect of citations and six times that of attention. X-axis: standardised effect, −0.2 to 1.0.
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 18/09/2026
This is an *excellent* post on cluster analysis. If you ever thought about applying cluster, latent class or latent profile analysis to psychological scales, you absolutely should read this!>
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Brian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
"An..LLM pipeline [conducted] 1,328 in-sample replications, [and] 1,005..out-of-sample tests. In sample, 75% reproduce the published sign and significance, and the median coefficient recovers 0.93 of the published value. Out of sample, the rate falls to 42%, and the median coefficient ratio to 0.45"
papers.ssrn.com
Does Empirical Finance Replicate?
An autonomous LLM pipeline rebuilds each result from the paper and available databases, with independent audits of every replication. I obtain 1,328 in-sample r
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Vilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
True true. The more I think about these AI citations the crazier it seems. Hayes is a titan. And this is super embarrassing. Why risk the reputation loss? But also, Clinical Psychological Review is a big deal as well. Why are they risking the reputation loss? The cost of a check is essentially zero.
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Anna Alexandrova @annaalexandrova.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
This is a big deal. For the first time (I believe) the Lakatos Award goes to a book not published by one of the big commercial presses but by BSPS Open, an idealistic project to issue diamond access monographs. Small budget, top notch philosophy. Congratulations to John Norton and BSPS open!
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Daniel Nettle @danielnettle.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Pleased to announce the publication of the second edition of 'From Questions to Knowledge: Data Analysis for Psychology and Behavioural Science Using R' mybook.to/questionstok...
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Sanjay Srivastava @sanjaysrivastava.com · 16/09/2026
Fully expecting this to be based on a tiny self-selected sample predisposed to aggression, with participants coached on how to act, exaggerated performances for observers, all run by a host with a flair for showmanship but questionable ethical instincts. You know, a direct replication
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Experimental Philosophy @xphilosopher.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Philosopher @nathansen.bsky.social has created a website that uses AI to take people through a Socratic dialogue about a philosophical thought experiment I gave it a try. In my opinion, it really does help users think through these questions www.ux-phi.com/experiments
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Isidro F. Aguillo @isidroaguillo.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Monthly review of the coverage of the main bibliometric tools
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Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 14/09/2026
📝 New article on Our World in Data: Is organic farming better for the environment than conventional farming? One of the most common questions we’re asked about food systems is whether organic farming is better for the environment than conventional methods.
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Brian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
I am sad to share that Project Implicit, my first non-profit and foundation of my career, is closing. The IAT website will continue, managed by the next generation of leaders in implicit bias research. Here's the statement I posted to LinkedIn. It didn't vibe right as a bsky thread.
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Matthew B. Jané @matthewbjane.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
I’ve been quiet on social media lately, but today I’m launching Audit Clinical Evidence (ACE), an initiative I’ve been developing over the past year. Take a look: AuditClinicalEvidence.org
auditclinicalevidence.org
ACE
Independent audits of published clinical research for statistical errors, data inconsistencies, and research integrity violations.
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Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 12/09/2026
So I've paused the bug bounty for now, and ran a thorough AI fact check across all my blogposts myself, asking it to generate a claim by claim spreadsheet and verify them all with primary sources. That resulted in me finding ten minor £5 errors across all my blogposts, and some poor phrasings.
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Eiko Fried @eikofried.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Ever since this happened, I have never given journals sole ownerhip of my supplemental materials .. eiko-fried.com/blog/supplem...
eiko-fried.com
Supplementary materials fail | Eiko Fried
A few months ago, we published a new paper Fried, E. I., van Borkulo, C. D., Cramer, A. O. J., Boschloo, L., Schoevers, R. A., & Borsboom, D. (2017). Mental disorders as networks...
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Duncan Stibbard Hawkes @dstibbardhawkes.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
"Mind-altering nuts"?? Honestly, if you've not tried it, betel is about as mind altering as a strong coffee. www.theguardian.com/science/2026...
theguardian.com
Indonesian foragers may have sucked on mind-altering nuts 25,000 years ago, research finds
Analysis of two skeletons reveals tooth wear and traces of psychoactive substance in what may be earliest known evidence for human drug taking
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Ruben C. Arslan @ruben.the100.ci · 11/09/2026
An interesting thing is happening to me at the moment. I have a standing bug bounty policy for my first authored scientific work. That means, I've committed to pay people who report bugs in my code, up to 750€ for severe errors. Since GPT-6 Astra came out, I'm now getting several bug reports daily.
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Modeling non-response is an example I like to use when arguing that "descriptive" statistics also require causal inference. To describe the population, you have to model what causes the sample. Similar to occupancy modeling in ecology in many ways.
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Matt Grainger @drmattg.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Meta-analysts ask researchers to share reusable data, but are we leading by example? Great work by @shreyadimri.bsky.social, @asanchez-tojar.bsky.social & more. Of 81 meta-analyses, 68% shared data, only 15% shared code, and none reported a risk-of-bias assessment. ecoevorxiv.org/repository/v...
ecoevorxiv.org
Meta-analysts must lead by example and embrace all FAIR principles
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Stephen Nuñez @socio-steve.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
For the record I estimate that sociology has only a 0.1 percent chance of destroying humanity in the next decade.
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
The null result becomes so much more interesting once you've spent three years producing it
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Trevor A. Branch @trevorabranch.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
This is seismic news for fisheries scientists. Northern cod is *the* iconic symbol of total fisheries collapse due to overfishing (and other factors) *and* the iconic symbol of a complete failure to recover for decades afterwards. This is like announcing the complete recovery of bison on land.
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Joe Noonan @joenoonan.se · 08/09/2026
One of my pet peeves is looking for country level explanations for global trends. I am no expert but I don't think Norway doing X in 2022 or France changing policy Y in 2019 can explain these global declines across a diverse set of countries.
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Causal inference is the art of knowing exactly why your estimate isn't causal
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Brian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Incredibly important work surfacing the risks and needs for improving processes for responsible data sharing.
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Vincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Big news! 🎉 𝚖𝚊𝚛𝚐𝚒𝚗𝚊𝚕𝚎𝚏𝚏𝚎𝚌𝚝𝚜 1.0.0 for #Rstats is out. It’s a big number and it feels like a big step. I wrote a blog on the challenges of interpreting statistical models, SPEED, cool new features, the future, and a 5 year package development and writing odyssey. arelbundock.com/posts/margin...
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