Reposted by Aurélien AllardJeremy Freese @jeremyfreese.bsky.social · 8hWhen it closed, the server was opened to reveal a little man who took a bow. 0727
Reposted by Aurélien AllardRichard McElreath 🐈⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 3hMy priors about chimp anti-sociality confirmed: They stole from "friends" 61% of trials, from non-friends 70% of trials. Continues to be one of the biggest puzzles about human evolution, which mechanisms and evolutionary history make humans qualitatively more cooperative than other apes. 36515
Reposted by Aurélien AllardAlex Coppock @aecoppock.bsky.social · 18hNew from Hainmueller and Laitin on the causal effects of becoming a citizen on wages. Short story: the observational ests overstate the premium relative to the experimental ests. Authors conclude "observational averages should not be used as causal forecasts for policy" doi.org/10.1073/pnas... 12511
Reposted by Aurélien AllardBenjamin @benjaminschneider.ch · 21hWerner Herzog will be the last human being whose next word no language model can predict 9533138
Reposted by Aurélien AllardAmanda J. Wright @ajwright.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Since our paper on the Changing How I Live Life (CHILL) Study is now out in Psychological Science (doi.org/10.1177/0956...), here's a LONG overdue post on the intervention work we've been doing the past few years! Have you ever wanted to change one of your personality traits? 14418
Reposted by Aurélien AllardJustin Weinberg @dailynous.com · 29/09/2026"The story about the analytic turn is more complicated than the McCarthyist thesis suggests..."dailynous.comAnalytic Philosophy and McCarthyism: A New Look (guest post) - Daily NousTo what extent is the “the story about the analytic turn” in philosophy a story about politics? There’s been an increased discussion in recent years […] 0126
Reposted by Aurélien AllardIan Hussey @ianhussey.mmmdata.io · 28/09/2026Germany has cancelled funding for the German Cochrane Foundation. Bad news all around. Cochrane’s benefit to cost ratio is huge. @cochrane.org www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/wark...sueddeutsche.deBund streicht renommierter Cochrane-Stiftung die FörderungDie Cochrane-Stiftung, die seit Jahren die Nutzen medizinischer Therapien untersucht, soll künftig nicht mehr staatlich gefördert werden. 32914
Reposted by Aurélien Allardingmarvisser.bsky.social @ingmarvisser.bsky.social · 28/09/2026This was a fantastic team effort across 30+ labs 🌍 Paper (open access), data & code all public. > 📄 doi.org/10.1111/desc... > 💻 github.com/manybabies/m... > #ManyBabies #InfantCognition #OpenScience #DevSci, lead team: Andreea Geambaşu, Melanie Soderstrom, and Claartje Leveltdoi.orgManyBabies 3: A Multi‐Lab Study of Infant Algebraic Rule LearningThe ability to learn and apply rules lies at the heart of cognition. In a seminal study, Marcus et al. (1999) reported that 7-month-old infants learned abstract rules over syllable sequences and were... 33722
Reposted by Aurélien Allardingmarvisser.bsky.social @ingmarvisser.bsky.social · 28/09/2026New paper 🍼📄 ManyBabies 3 is out (open access, registered report in Developmental Science). 30 labs, 33 languages, 839 infants set out to replicate a textbook finding: 7-month-olds learn abstract rules from speech (@garymarcus.bsky.social et al., 1999). We didn’t find it. 🧵 37644
Reposted by Aurélien AllardJoe Noonan @joenoonan.se · 27/09/2026My friend: "I don't know what to get my family for Christmas!" Me: 0113
Reposted by Aurélien AllardJulia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 25/09/2026I do find economists annoying sometimes, but they’re usually less annoying than the people who mindlessly hate on economists 😭 4152
Reposted by Aurélien AllardIan Hussey @ianhussey.mmmdata.io · 25/09/2026"Systematic reviews are only as credible as the studies they include" INSPECT-SR was published yesterday, giving concrete guidance on how to exclude untrustworthy studies. Cochrane's statement: www.cochrane.org/about-us/new... Article: www.cochrane.org/about-us/new... Guidance: inspect-sr.comcochrane.orgNew tool helps researchers spot problematic trials before they distort evidence | Cochrane 26031
Reposted by Aurélien AllardVera Wilde @verawil.de · 25/09/2026Now published in *Behavior Research Methods*: An LLM canary in the online data coalmine. LLMs solve Bayesian reasoning problems way better than people do. That capability gap can flag LLM contamination in online samples. rdcu.be/4Fw8jpGpkVpardcu.be 292
Reposted by Aurélien AllardKristian Steensen Nielsen @kristiansn89.bsky.social · 25/09/2026🎯 What should we expect from behavior change interventions? Growing evidence suggests that most behavior change interventions have small effects on behavior. I regularly hear fellow behavioral scientists understandably feeling discouraged by this. But should we be discouraged? Not necessarily.🧵 44616
Reposted by Aurélien Allardlastpositivist.bsky.social @lastpositivist.bsky.social · 24/09/2026The old line that analytic philosophy is answering questions that come naturally to toddlers via methods that come naturally to lawyers remains undefeated. 7556104
Reposted by Aurélien AllardCarsten Schwemmer @cschwem2er.bsky.social · 28/07/20261/6 What happens when you tell an AI browser: “Fill out this survey”? It fills out the survey. In our new study, led by @rtopinkova.bsky.social, we tested three consumer-facing agentic browsers without lengthy prompts, custom code, or technical fine-tuning. 33728
Reposted by Aurélien AllardRafe Meager (they/them) @economeager.bsky.social · 23/09/2026if anyone tells you to cite my papers that is also paul 3393
Reposted by Aurélien Allardmoin syed @syeducation.bsky.social · 22/09/2026New paper! Despite qualitative researchers claiming that generalizability is not a goal, their published work does indeed contain generalizable claims. We document this and provide recommendations for how all researchers can better calibrate their generalizability claims. doi.org/10.1177/2515... 619256
Reposted by Aurélien AllardOur World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 21/09/2026📝 New article on Our World in Data: How high is current immigration to the United States, in historical perspective? Ask Americans about the top concerns for the United States, and immigration is rarely far from the top of the list. 1386
Reposted by Aurélien AllardNick Byrd, Ph.D. @byrdnick.com · 21/09/2026Has ego depletion research been resurrected as “cognitive depletion”? “Study 2 [shows that] glucose levels, can modulate deliberative thinking…” doi.org/10.1080/0144... I have a memory of papers arguing that drinking glucose can’t directly change brain glucose. Is that false? 151
Reposted by Aurélien AllardBart Penders @penders.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Back of the envelope calculations: 3600 years of research time went into the collective application process. The research will fund 3200 years of research. We are 400 research years poorer as a result of this. 1/2 316386
Reposted by Aurélien AllardMinor Mobius @minormobius.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Good news everyone who is having a hard time picturing the solid, spin it around zoom in at Math.mino.mobi/szilassi 6827
Reposted by Aurélien AllardKatie Mack @astrokatie.com · 20/09/2026Apropos of the campus-setting novel I’m currently reading, I’d just like to put out there that I am available to authors to consult on what grad students and researchers and professors actually do and act like and my rates are reasonable. 39103685
Reposted by Aurélien AllardJoe Bak-Coleman @jbakcoleman.bsky.social · 19/09/2026I got a *remarkably quick* rejection email from a tenure track job that I applied to. Rejections are part of the process! However, if you’re going to screen candidates with ai, please don’t ask for more than a cv and let us know! It’s a lot of time learning about your dept, writing and tailoring. 510123
Reposted by Aurélien AllardDan Quintana @dsquintana.bsky.social · 19/09/2026New preprint! 🎉 I analysed 1660 papers from 4 psychology journals and found materials sharing went from 9% of papers in 2015 to 82% in 2025, and these materials *do* get downloaded — a median of 135 times each. BUT shared code is often hard to run. doi.org/10.31234/osf... Let's walk through it 🧵 4265112
Reposted by Aurélien AllardJulia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 18/09/2026This is an *excellent* post on cluster analysis. If you ever thought about applying cluster, latent class or latent profile analysis to psychological scales, you absolutely should read this!> 511835
Reposted by Aurélien AllardBrian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · 17/09/2026"An..LLM pipeline [conducted] 1,328 in-sample replications, [and] 1,005..out-of-sample tests. In sample, 75% reproduce the published sign and significance, and the median coefficient recovers 0.93 of the published value. Out of sample, the rate falls to 42%, and the median coefficient ratio to 0.45"papers.ssrn.comDoes Empirical Finance Replicate?An autonomous LLM pipeline rebuilds each result from the paper and available databases, with independent audits of every replication. I obtain 1,328 in-sample r 3192
Reposted by Aurélien AllardVilgot Huhn @vilgothuhn.bsky.social · 17/09/2026True true. The more I think about these AI citations the crazier it seems. Hayes is a titan. And this is super embarrassing. Why risk the reputation loss? But also, Clinical Psychological Review is a big deal as well. Why are they risking the reputation loss? The cost of a check is essentially zero. 162
Reposted by Aurélien AllardAnna Alexandrova @annaalexandrova.bsky.social · 16/09/2026This is a big deal. For the first time (I believe) the Lakatos Award goes to a book not published by one of the big commercial presses but by BSPS Open, an idealistic project to issue diamond access monographs. Small budget, top notch philosophy. Congratulations to John Norton and BSPS open! 0458
Reposted by Aurélien AllardDaniel Nettle @danielnettle.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Pleased to announce the publication of the second edition of 'From Questions to Knowledge: Data Analysis for Psychology and Behavioural Science Using R' mybook.to/questionstok... 11613
Reposted by Aurélien AllardSanjay Srivastava @sanjaysrivastava.com · 16/09/2026Fully expecting this to be based on a tiny self-selected sample predisposed to aggression, with participants coached on how to act, exaggerated performances for observers, all run by a host with a flair for showmanship but questionable ethical instincts. You know, a direct replication 723240
Reposted by Aurélien AllardExperimental Philosophy @xphilosopher.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Philosopher @nathansen.bsky.social has created a website that uses AI to take people through a Socratic dialogue about a philosophical thought experiment I gave it a try. In my opinion, it really does help users think through these questions www.ux-phi.com/experiments 1269
Reposted by Aurélien AllardIsidro F. Aguillo @isidroaguillo.bsky.social · 31/07/2026Monthly review of the coverage of the main bibliometric tools 078
Reposted by Aurélien AllardOur World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 14/09/2026📝 New article on Our World in Data: Is organic farming better for the environment than conventional farming? One of the most common questions we’re asked about food systems is whether organic farming is better for the environment than conventional methods. 411053
Reposted by Aurélien AllardBrian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · 14/09/2026I am sad to share that Project Implicit, my first non-profit and foundation of my career, is closing. The IAT website will continue, managed by the next generation of leaders in implicit bias research. Here's the statement I posted to LinkedIn. It didn't vibe right as a bsky thread. 55425
Reposted by Aurélien AllardMatthew B. Jané @matthewbjane.bsky.social · 13/09/2026I’ve been quiet on social media lately, but today I’m launching Audit Clinical Evidence (ACE), an initiative I’ve been developing over the past year. Take a look: AuditClinicalEvidence.orgauditclinicalevidence.orgACEIndependent audits of published clinical research for statistical errors, data inconsistencies, and research integrity violations. 89132
Reposted by Aurélien AllardSaloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 12/09/2026So I've paused the bug bounty for now, and ran a thorough AI fact check across all my blogposts myself, asking it to generate a claim by claim spreadsheet and verify them all with primary sources. That resulted in me finding ten minor £5 errors across all my blogposts, and some poor phrasings. 2121
Reposted by Aurélien AllardEiko Fried @eikofried.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Ever since this happened, I have never given journals sole ownerhip of my supplemental materials .. eiko-fried.com/blog/supplem...eiko-fried.comSupplementary materials fail | Eiko FriedA few months ago, we published a new paper Fried, E. I., van Borkulo, C. D., Cramer, A. O. J., Boschloo, L., Schoevers, R. A., & Borsboom, D. (2017). Mental disorders as networks... 64916
Reposted by Aurélien AllardDuncan Stibbard Hawkes @dstibbardhawkes.bsky.social · 11/09/2026"Mind-altering nuts"?? Honestly, if you've not tried it, betel is about as mind altering as a strong coffee. www.theguardian.com/science/2026...theguardian.comIndonesian foragers may have sucked on mind-altering nuts 25,000 years ago, research findsAnalysis of two skeletons reveals tooth wear and traces of psychoactive substance in what may be earliest known evidence for human drug taking 1133
Reposted by Aurélien AllardRuben C. Arslan @ruben.the100.ci · 11/09/2026An interesting thing is happening to me at the moment. I have a standing bug bounty policy for my first authored scientific work. That means, I've committed to pay people who report bugs in my code, up to 750€ for severe errors. Since GPT-6 Astra came out, I'm now getting several bug reports daily. 39233
Reposted by Aurélien AllardRichard McElreath 🐈⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Modeling non-response is an example I like to use when arguing that "descriptive" statistics also require causal inference. To describe the population, you have to model what causes the sample. Similar to occupancy modeling in ecology in many ways. 110119
Reposted by Aurélien AllardMatt Grainger @drmattg.bsky.social · 09/09/2026Meta-analysts ask researchers to share reusable data, but are we leading by example? Great work by @shreyadimri.bsky.social, @asanchez-tojar.bsky.social & more. Of 81 meta-analyses, 68% shared data, only 15% shared code, and none reported a risk-of-bias assessment. ecoevorxiv.org/repository/v...ecoevorxiv.orgMeta-analysts must lead by example and embrace all FAIR principles 02211
Reposted by Aurélien AllardStephen Nuñez @socio-steve.bsky.social · 09/09/2026For the record I estimate that sociology has only a 0.1 percent chance of destroying humanity in the next decade. 812814
Reposted by Aurélien AllardPer Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 09/09/2026The null result becomes so much more interesting once you've spent three years producing it 2575
Reposted by Aurélien AllardTrevor A. Branch @trevorabranch.bsky.social · 09/09/2026This is seismic news for fisheries scientists. Northern cod is *the* iconic symbol of total fisheries collapse due to overfishing (and other factors) *and* the iconic symbol of a complete failure to recover for decades afterwards. This is like announcing the complete recovery of bison on land. 8576732174
Reposted by Aurélien AllardJoe Noonan @joenoonan.se · 08/09/2026One of my pet peeves is looking for country level explanations for global trends. I am no expert but I don't think Norway doing X in 2022 or France changing policy Y in 2019 can explain these global declines across a diverse set of countries. 26921
Reposted by Aurélien AllardPer Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 08/09/2026Causal inference is the art of knowing exactly why your estimate isn't causal 611418
Reposted by Aurélien AllardBrian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · 08/09/2026Incredibly important work surfacing the risks and needs for improving processes for responsible data sharing. 0107
Reposted by Aurélien AllardVincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 04/09/2026Big news! 🎉 𝚖𝚊𝚛𝚐𝚒𝚗𝚊𝚕𝚎𝚏𝚏𝚎𝚌𝚝𝚜 1.0.0 for #Rstats is out. It’s a big number and it feels like a big step. I wrote a blog on the challenges of interpreting statistical models, SPEED, cool new features, the future, and a 5 year package development and writing odyssey. arelbundock.com/posts/margin... 1642197