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Vera Wilde

@verawil.de
328 followers 329 following 538 posts

Scientist (PhD), writer, risk literacy and citizen science tool builder. Nerd-of-all-trades (research methodologist). <3 FOIA, babies, clocking bias and error. Seeker of truth, especially wild.

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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 29/09/2026
£320k, 500,000+ faces scanned, 18 deployments, and live facial recognition in London train stations produced exactly 1 alert, a false positive. As someone who studies mass screening for rare problems: the specificity is stunning. But there's no sensitivity data. www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
theguardian.com
Trial of live facial recognition in London stations ends with a false positive and no arrests
Freedom of information request finds six-month trial cost £320,000, used almost 100 police hours and led to just one – incorrect – alert
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 29/09/2026
30 years of risk literacy research asks: can people compute what a positive test means? LLMs do that now. The open question is whether people notice the structure when a problem arrives unlabeled. How do we test this pattern recognition without cueing it? wildetruth.substack.com/p/the-answer...
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 25/09/2026
Applying this to a Cochrane review I've critiqued: Lenells et al. 2025, breastfeeding support to prevent postpartum depression. Ten RCTs; its one "may prevent" finding rests on a single small trial. Pre-registering an INSPECT-SR audit plus re-pooled analysis. wildetruth.substack.com/p/cochranes-...
wildetruth.substack.com
Cochrane's New Breastfeeding-Depression Review Misrepresents the Evidence
Cochrane said they'd ask me to review it before publication; they didn't, published it today, and it's worse than I feared
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 25/09/2026
Dust to dust in wind we trust to be fickle Waving everywhere not without care not without home but in a ramshackle on-the-way roam This house will fall we heed a call eat the sweet harvest when it's time wave our branches sublime All is vanity just ask Hannity 🌿🍋 www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wcG...
youtube.com
Sukkot: Ecclesiastes Reimagined in Animation
YouTube video by BimBam
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 25/09/2026
Now published in *Behavior Research Methods*: An LLM canary in the online data coalmine. LLMs solve Bayesian reasoning problems way better than people do. That capability gap can flag LLM contamination in online samples. rdcu.be/4Fw8jpGpkVpa
rdcu.be
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Mattan S. Ben-Shachar @mattansb.msbstats.info · 24/09/2026
This quote by haunts me. From Wilcox's "Introduction to Robust Estimation and Hypothesis Testing" #stats
To begin, distributions are never normal. For some this seems obvious, hardly worth mentioning, but an aphorism given by Cram´er (1946) and attributed to the mathematician Poincar´e remains relevant: “Everyone believes in the [normal] law of errors, the experimenters because they think it is a mathematical theorem, the mathematicians because they think it is an experimental fact.”
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Gordon Hodson @gordonhodsonphd.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
#AcademicSky #PsychSciSky #MetaScience Article worth reading, & sharing w/ your student researchers. Can't get this out of my head: "Bishop’s law: The better designed a study is, the more likely it is to obtain a null result" journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... Meimoun & @lakens.bsky.social
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 23/09/2026
Faithfully swallowing a sugar pill nearly halved your death rate in the Coronary Drug Project. Except obviously it didn't. That's the artifact my favorite baby-sex-diet paper is built on. wildetruth.substack.com/p/gestation-...
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 21/09/2026
Anybody else notice your notes have more typos since using LLMs? Because they don't matter for that audience... I have gotten sloppier! Seems like a low-level example of deskilling. Normally I don't believe the hype about the AI-pocolypse, but typos. Ew.
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 16/09/2026
The soul is real is really tied with a rope they thought about confounds for real this is dope! But that leap from statistical distinguishability to soul that is not what "nonlocal" means. Eat the fresh plums out of the ice-box. This is how quantum rolls: unknown, unknowable, the cheeky fox.
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 16/09/2026
So I did not successfully teach the kids proper marching this morning, but I did stumble on this amazing marching band pop classic playlist and we will be dance partying again to this soon. open.spotify.com/playlist/1Nu...
open.spotify.com
The Best Marching Band Songs
All is welcome so long as it is a piece played by an instrumental band, examples include military bands and university bands.
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Jeremy Labrecque @jeremylabrecque.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Relationship inference: what ifn’t
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 14/09/2026
Replicating the Institute for Replication post be like
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 14/09/2026
I invented a Bayesian motorcycle. Or so Reviewer 1 suggested. Behavior Research Methods has accepted the paper: Bayesian reasoning problems as a capability-gap test for LLM contamination in online samples. 57% of pilot 2 got 5/5, vs. a ~24% human ceiling. wildetruth.substack.com/p/i-invented...
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 08/09/2026
It is not particularly windy in Berlin today, but here is a poem about wind. www.poetryfoundation.org/poetrymagazi...
poetryfoundation.org
Wind
Like a wind asleep against stones as light as the air from a volcano’s mouth. Coves clear to the sea floor, wind grass and new lambs, donkeys eating…
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 07/09/2026
New in Internet Policy Review: "Chat Control: One Law, Two Problems": policyreview.info/articles/new... Known-material scanning has an answer sheet, making its errors measurable. Searching for uncatalogued material has none — and none can be supplied. wildetruth.substack.com/p/one-law-tw...
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 04/09/2026
Challah continues to please. Practice round challah for Rosh Hashanah next week. With jumbo raisins and less egg wash. I think next time it will have cinnamon because you can't have raisin bread without cinnamon?
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 01/09/2026
Van Gogh copied Hiroshige line for line before he could paint like that. Most people can't see the same problem in a new context until someone points. That's why we keep falling for the same screening disaster. Also, you have to read Gick & Holyoak 1983! wildetruth.substack.com/p/how-to-ste...
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 28/08/2026
d0ca5882c2be48b6bfd277f830f0c394c3eb8ca88c59e5e8898be29d7c27ec77
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 26/08/2026
More on Good–Turing estimation of unknown stuff. Rarity is common! Two methods read the same table: Good-Turing estimates the mass of the unseen, Chao bounds the count. Neither can tell you the shape of the tail. And that's structural, not a data problem. wildetruth.substack.com/p/good-turin...
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 23/08/2026
Weekend cooking continues with gluten-free pumpkin pies by popular request. Older offspring dug up the canned pumpkin puree Grandma brought ages ago, made demands. Poured much vanilla extract, also from Grandma. In our defense, it's already chilly and gray here this morning.
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 22/08/2026
Can confirm the wetter-hands-for-less-sticky-dough trick also works on the gf dinner roll version, which is then amenable to cookie cutter fun.
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 21/08/2026
Controversial hot take: bread is good. Also, the Internet told me to make the gluten free dough and my hands **wetter** to make it less sticky so it would braid, which is objectively unhinged advice. It worked. So I guess now I have to trust the Internet about everything forever. [Nomnomnom.]
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 14/08/2026
Readings on transfer problems across epidemiology, screening, language, causal inference, and learning. h/t @stevensenior.bsky.social for Geoffrey Rose and @benkawam.bsky.social for Anna Wierzbicka. wildetruth.substack.com/p/science-vi...
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 08/08/2026
New blog post in which we discover the secret to immortality: accounting errors. www.the100.ci/2026/08/08/m...
the100.ci
My Immortal Time Bias
Preamble: This shortie is my attempt to come up with an example that makes the problem underlying immortal time bias as obvious as possible.  In Japan, people who reach the age of 100 are handed a co...
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 07/08/2026
Feeling pretty good about my Führungszeugnis!
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Jamie Cummins @jamiecummins.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Have you built an LLM-based research tool and had to stumble your way through figuring out how to validate it? Me too! So I wrote a guide on how to systematically approach this. Preprint here: osf.io/preprints/ps...
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 05/08/2026
Murphy's "closed-universe searches" (Cal L Rev 2026) fills a real gap in 4A doctrine. But the "almost certainly the perp is in the pool" assumption is load-bearing — and it's doubly confounded by base-rate reasoning. californialawreview.org/print/closed-universe-searches
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 30/07/2026
Hey, the known/unknown CSAM (child sexual abuse material) mass AI scanning distinction is a Good-Turing distinction. Bletchley, 1953. You can estimate how much you haven't seen. You can't identify an instance of it. Chat Control 2.0 needs the second one. wildetruth.substack.com/p/the-knownu...
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Solomon Kurz @solomonkurz.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
"Our lives today are a gallery of past generations’ heroic efforts"
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Aaron D. Cherniak @aaroncherniak.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Read the open-access paper: doi.org/10.1007/s114...
doi.org
Association of Religiosity, Meaning in Life, and Social Media use with Common Mental Health Disorders - International Journal of Mental Health and Addiction
Religiosity has been linked to favorable and unfavorable mental health outcomes. This study explored how religiosity relates to shared vulnerability for problematic substance use, behavioral addictions, and mental health symptoms, in the context of religion-related variations in meaning in life, social media use, and exposure to harmful online content in a quasi-representative cross-sectional sample of Israeli Jewish adults (N = 2907). Religious participants reported lower problematic substance use, behavioral addictions, and common mental health symptoms, higher meaning in life, lower social media use, and lower exposure to harmful content than other participants. All three outcome domains showed inverse associations with meaning in life and positive associations with social media use and harmful content exposure. After accounting for meaning in life and digital variables, religiosity remained inversely associated with problematic substance use, showed no significant association with mental health symptoms, and was positively associated with behavioral addictions. These findings suggest that meaning in life and digital engagement are broadly associated with shared vulnerability across substance use, addictive behaviors, and mental health symptoms, and they may account for some of religiosity’s relevance to outcomes. Meaning-related and digital factors could be considered when addressing population-level patterns of addiction and mental health.
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 24/07/2026
Highly recommend Jon Batiste's *Black Mozart* previews (out on Spotify and Youtube), including a reprise of "Für Elise" that is up there with Guaraldi's Charlie Brown Christmas version (with B coming in a close second to G, imho).
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Sholto David @sholtodavid.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Today I'm posting a blog about another ridiculous antibody blunder. Dozens of papers in the senescence and ageing field have mistakenly used an antibody for E. coli β-galactosidase when trying to stain for the human protein with the same name. forbetterscience.com/2026/07/21/d...
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 20/07/2026
New paper out now 🥳 When psychologists discuss generalisability, they often refer to vague notions of representativeness. We provide an accessible intro to the total survey error framework as a tool to reason about this more rigorously. w @taymalsalti.bsky.social @ruben.the100.ci >
Thinking Clearly About Sampling and Representation With the Total Survey Error Framework

Collecting a sample that represents the population of interest well constitutes a challenge across the social and behavioural sciences. Psychology in particular frequently relies on convenience samples—most notably students and, increasingly, online participants—with a tendency to either (implicitly) assume representativeness without substantive justification, or to acknowledge a lack of it only in passing. In contrast, researchers rarely engage with the actual implications for their inferences, which undermines the generalisability of psychological findings. Critically, representativeness must be defined with respect to variables relevant to the target of inference, rather than superficial demographic diversity. Here we present the Total Survey Error (TSE) framework as a methodological tool that systematically addresses the multifaceted sources of error—particularly those related to representation—that emerge throughout the research cycle. Although TSE originated in survey research, its principles are broadly applicable to any psychological study seeking inference from sample to population. We offer practical strategies for identifying, preventing, and mitigating representation errors to improve the credibility and generalisability of psychological research.

Illustration of the total survey error framework with the representation strand highlighted. It shows how coverage error, sampling error and non-response error arise during the sampling process.
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 17/07/2026
At a Shabbat gathering, I asked why they say "Good Shabbos" here (in Germany) instead of "Shabbat Shalom" (as in the U.S. as well as Israel). Answer: "Because we're so Ashkenazi." Offspring and I then stumbled on the linguistic why studying the Alef Bet, and it's lovely!! 🧵
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 14/07/2026
This just in: the term for a group of ladybugs is a loveliness! www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
Country diary: Not every group of ladybirds is a loveliness
Langstone, Hampshire: Harlequin larvae have arrived in my garden, and the reception is mixed
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 13/07/2026
Last week, the European Parliament failed to block the revival of Chat Control 1.0 — mass AI scanning of digital communications for child sexual abuse material (CSAM). A majority voted against it, but not the absolute majority required to stop it.
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Riinu Pius @pius.cloud · 09/07/2026
Things I thought before I had children: - I will only buy one pram/buggy - I will not cut crusts off bread - #rstats is better than Python Only one of these beliefs I still hold 🤓
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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 30/06/2026
Did you know that a DAG is called GAG in German?
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 28/06/2026
How to fit an entire bottle of coconut extract into a cake in six easy steps! 1. make cake 2. make icing 3. lick spoons 4. what? it's too hot for counting 5. ... 6. profit!!!
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Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
Yes, unnormalized posterior density function, you _are_ enough.
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 26/06/2026
Oh wow Scott Alexander has a really terrible piece one whole body scans. I am surprised. www.astralcodexten.com/p/should-peo... 1. Scott's math rests on a bad assumption: that "the cost of treating the treatable cancers is zero," because doctors can leave the indolent ones alone.
astralcodexten.com
Should People Avoid Whole-Body Screening Info?
...
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 26/06/2026
Why does breastfeeding research keep reassuring us "breast is best"? The moms it fails most were never in the sample. Two biases, one loose label — confounding on maternal health, and the selection bias that hides missing moms. h/t @guidobiele.bsky.social wildetruth.substack.com/p/missing-moms
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Frank Harrell @f2harrell.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
"Real world data" is an almost meaningless phrase. Our new @bmj.com paper pushes the more helpful phrase "routinely collected data" and explains the many limitations of such for research purposes. doi.org/10.1136/bmj-... #Statistics #StatsSky
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 25/06/2026
The box of books my great-aunt mailed from across the pond was so big my son climbed inside and brought his lovies. Reviews of the books: excellent. Reviews of the box: superior. Naturally, the one volume I most wanted to read first — about noticing your own blind spots — has already vanished.
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 25/06/2026
6. Controlling for everything removes bias. wildetruth.substack.com/p/simpsons-p...
wildetruth.substack.com
Simpson's Paradox and Existential Terror
There is no paradox -- "D'OH!"
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 25/06/2026
29°C at 10 and the pansies disagree. (They were freshly dead-headed just last night!)
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 22/06/2026
New post applying my causal framework for mass screenings to the firm: wildetruth.substack.com/p/the-firms-... Features - a "95%-accurate" fraud/AML filter whose alerts run 99.6% innocent, - a new Rarity Roulette AML preset showing the carnage, & - the three other pathways we have to worry about...
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Vera Wilde @verawil.de · 12/06/2026
Chat Control's final trilogue: June 29. The "win" (no mandatory scanning of encrypted messages) hides two quieter losses: risk-mitigation scanning + mandatory age verification. Encryption survives. Anonymity doesn't. Paper update: wildetruth.substack.com/p/encryption...
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