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Ambarish Karmalkar

@ambarish.bsky.social
3.6K followers 700 following 259 posts

Climate Scientist | Studying how global warming affects us locally | Assistant Professor @ University of Rhode Island | web.uri.edu/geo/ambarish-karmalkar

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Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 22/09/2026
NEW PAPER: In a new paper, jointly published in @agu.org Earth's Future & @ametsoc.org BAMS, and co-led by Melissa Kenney, @costasamaras.com and me, 175 authors outline priorities to guide the future of scientific assessments of climate change in the United States. 🧵
doi.org
Research Priorities for Robust Climate Assessments in the United States
A network of climate assessments plays a critical role in synthesizing the state of science to support evidence-based decision-making To support future U.S. and sub-national climate assessments, ...
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US CLIVAR @usclivar.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
If you are planning to analyze CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track simulations, register to attend a CMIP7 Analysis Workshop! Each virtual workshop will focus on a fundamental CMIP7 science question. Learn more and register. wcrp-cmip.org/registration...
wcrp-cmip.org
Registration Open for CMIP7 Analysis Workshops - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
We are pleased to invite the climate modelling community to participate in the CMIP7 Analysis Workshops, a new series of community-led virtual workshops
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Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
NASA GISTEMP/IRI are debuting a new web page for predictions for the annual mean temperature level and what we can expect next year. data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/gmsta/
GISTEMP history from 1980 with estimates for 2026 from two statistical models and the NMME initialized ensemble. Also an estimate for 2027 based on projected ENSO.
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Nahel Belgherze @wxnb.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Paris, France, has now recorded 100 days above 25°C (77°F) in 2026 so far. This has never happened before in a calendar year since records began 154 years ago, in 1872.
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Ambarish Karmalkar @ambarish.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
How has Nepal's Langtang region, which recently experienced a devastating flood and debris flow event, changed over time? Warming changes things -- scientists and colleagues from Nepal explain. smallearth.org.np/activities/w...
Plot showing a steady increase in seasonal temperatures in the Langtang region of Nepal since the 1940s.
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Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
The Atlantic–European jet stream has strengthened and shifted poleward since the pre-industrial era. A 1725–2100 reconstruction shows the jet explains ~40% of Western Europe's daily temperature variability and is linked to heatwaves, cold spells, and heavy rain. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
A strengthening yet less extreme Atlantic–European jet during winter - Nature Geoscience
Since 1725, weather extremes in Western Europe have been closely linked to the Atlantic–European jet stream, which is projected to strengthen by 2100 while becoming less extreme, according to daily se...
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Ambarish Karmalkar @ambarish.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
"Our technology [AI summary answers] is increasingly treating the territory between the query and the answer as dead space to be eliminated, when that territory is where most of the learning actually happens." www.nytimes.com/2026/07/08/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | We Are Losing the Ability to Discover What We Didn’t Know to Ask
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
The world had warmed ~1.2C in 2018 (SR15) & we now admit, 8 years later, exceeding 1.5C is unavoidable. The world is ~1.5C today, & warming ~0.3C/decade. Can we say that <1.8C is possible? I don't think we realise how close we are! 5/
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Dr. Prakash Kashwan @pkashwan.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
At least 160 people were killed in Nepal & over 400 were listed as missing on Wednesday. The flash floods were caused by an earthquake that triggered a large landslide. It decimated villages, roads, bridges & power plants in Nepal's northern border areas. www.cbsnews.com/news/nepal-f...
cbsnews.com
Flash flood tears through Nepal, killing scores and leaving over 400 tourists missing, including 33 Americans
Flash floods tore through a valley in Nepal, sweeping away villages and hundreds of tourists, with Americans among the missing, authorities say.
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Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · 25/08/2026
In other words, a *relatively* warm or cool year in the global-mean doesn't give a great deal of information for many regions as to whether that year will be locally relatively warm or cool. Of course an *absolutely* warm year (i.e., with the trends) does – that map is basically red everywhere.
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Erich Fischer @erichfischer.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Projection has become reality 22 years ago, Christoph Schär et al. published a landmark paper in Nature explaining that the 2003 heatwave was a harbinger of things to come. The study featured an iconic figure - shown in countless lectures - illustrating how outlandish the event was at the time
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Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Just wrapped up a 55-hour radar loop of Hurricane #Lala passing by #Hawaii. Its track was parallel and close to the island chain, so it managed to affect every island without ever making landfall. bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/
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Mike Byrne @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
New study showing hot days over tropical land are projected to warm faster than the average day (bad news for climate impacts) 🌡️🔥🥵 Amplified warming of hot days is explained by the drier-get-drier theory (see: www.nature.com/articles/s41...) agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Projections of Earth's Hottest Surface Temperatures in CMIP6
CMIP6 captures the broad spatial pattern of p99(Tmax) versus Berkeley Earth, supporting projections of record-like heat Tropical extremes amplify: TDM and TDX warm ∼30%–40% faster than TTL in SSP...
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Ambarish Karmalkar @ambarish.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Exclude high warming models at your own risk agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Recent Temperature and Energy Imbalance Trends Point to Higher Estimates of Future Warming
Recent surface warming and top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance point to higher future warming than previously estimated Previous constraints on transient climate response using observed surface te...
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Ambarish Karmalkar @ambarish.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Outright climate denial in the comments aside, it seems there are many people who do not understand how we define winters. Boston’s historic storm totals in Feb 2015 happened during the 14–15 winter, not during the 15–16 strong El Nino winter. www.bostonglobe.com/2026/08/04/m...
bostonglobe.com
A historic Super El Niño is underway. Here’s how this phenomenon could reshape New England’s next winter. - The Boston Globe
This “atmospheric adjustment” changes how the jet stream moves around the globe, influencing where storms develop and track, and whether regions turn hotter or colder.
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Dr. Aaron Thierry @thierryaaron.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
European summers aren't what they used to be! Grey curve is the climate of 1950-90. Every coloured line is a summer since 1991. Every one since 2005 sits beyond the 95th percentile of the curve. This isn't a shifting #climate. It's already a new one! 🤯🥵 Plot inspired by Barriopedro et al. 2011
Distribution of European summer temperature anomalies, June to August, over 25°W-40°E, 35-70°N, land only, the region used by Barriopedro et al., relative to 1961-1990, from ERA5. Grey bars show the 41 summers from 1950 to 1990, with a normal curve fitted through them, centred near zero. Coloured vertical lines show every summer from 1991 to 2025, shaded yellow through dark red by year, and almost all of them fall to the right of the grey distribution. The ten warmest are labelled, with 2024 furthest right at 2.74°C and 2022 next at 2.54°C. A dotted line marks the 95th percentile of the 1950-1990 distribution at 0.76°C.

Both run long, which is fine, since alt text has no practical limit and screen reader users benefit from the detail.
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Ambarish Karmalkar @ambarish.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
El Nino forecast in context dashboard.theclimatebrink.com#enso
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 10/08/2026
With all August model runs now in (except for SINTEX-F), we now expect this year's El Niño event to peak sometime between October and December at a stunning 4C in the Niño3.4 region. To see all the latest numbers, check out the Climate Dashboard: dashboard.theclimate...
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Ambarish Karmalkar @ambarish.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
but we can just adapt to +3C /s
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Nahel Belgherze @wxnb.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Bordeaux, France, has now recorded more days above 40°C in 2026 alone than during the entire 105-year period from 1920 (when observations began) to 2025. This is deeply shocking.
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ClimateDynamics @climatedynamics.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Great article on heat stress physics. Very smart. Hats off. Entrainment‐Based Framework for Understanding Extratropical Moist Heat Extremes - Jha - 2026 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Entrainment‐Based Framework for Understanding Extratropical Moist Heat Extremes
Dry-air entrainment in the lower free troposphere intensifies extratropical moist heat extremes Entrainment-based framework explains breakdown of moist convective neutrality during extratropical ...
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Reposted by Ambarish Karmalkar
Mike Byrne @drmichaelbyrne.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
New preprint on the physics of land humidity using 'water tagging' simulations. Key pt: land specific humidity changes primarily controlled by water advected from ocean regions, but relative humidity changes closely tied to local processes (e.g., soil moisture) essopenarchive.org/doi/abs/10.2...
essopenarchive.org
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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 27/07/2026
🔥🔥🔥Newspaper frontpages🔥🔥🔥
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Ambarish Karmalkar @ambarish.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Was new to the country, new to driving. Alone driving in rural New England late one evening, in pouring rain, and could barely see the road. Only reached my destination because I had done my homework. Unlike today, the printed maps era was also the era of kinda knowing your route before you left.
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Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 10/07/2026
NEW – Eight facts about air conditioning amid an overheated global debate | @arunacsekhar.bsky.social @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social @mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org @zekehausfather.com Read here: buff.ly/EynMeIk
Average number of days per year with a daily maximum temperature of at least 30C in a selection of major European cities, for each decade since the 1950s. Source: Copernicus ERA5, Carbon Brief analysis by Dr Zeke Hausfather.
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Dr. Jonathan Foley @globalecoguy.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Finally! An article about the AMOC circulation that isn’t just clickbait / hype, and provides some real physical insights about how the ocean works. It turns out the ocean may be far more resilient than clikbait stories suggest. A very worthwhile read! www.science.org/content/arti...
science.org
The ocean current that warms Europe may be more resilient than feared
Studies of the Atlantic's circulation find signs of both weakening and unexpected stability in the face of global warming
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Ambarish Karmalkar @ambarish.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
Unfortunately, there seems to be very little pushback from the public or from institutions. mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-t...
mitsloan.mit.edu
‘AI gravity’ is pulling you toward dependency. Here’s how to push back | MIT Sloan
AI systems hold the promise of competitive advantage, but they can usher in cognitive decline among workers, says MIT Sloan School of Management’s Eric So. Learn how to protect cognitive capital.
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Ambarish Karmalkar @ambarish.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Don’t remember the last time I experienced such relentless heat for over a month that I just did in Mumbai. www.theweek.in/news/india/2...
theweek.in
OPINION | From coping to institutional resilience: Addressing extreme urban heat in Indian cities
India's heat crisis demands a shift from seasonal emergency response to permanent urban resilience
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
The cooling of the stratosphere caused by rising atmospheric CO₂ is a clear sign of human influence on climate. However, the processes that determine the extent and vertical profile of this cooling were not fully understood… until now. 🧪
nature.com
Stratospheric cooling and amplification of radiative forcing with rising carbon dioxide - Nature Geoscience
Higher carbon dioxide levels widen the part of the heat spectrum that can emit energy to space, cooling the stratosphere and strengthening the warming effect of this gas, according to idealized spectr...
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Ambarish Karmalkar @ambarish.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Hotter nights driving sustained electricity demand www.downtoearth.org.in/amp/story/en...
downtoearth.org.in
Heatwaves, urban heat push India’s grid into uncharted territory
India’s electricity grid is facing a structural shift as intensifying heatwaves, rapid urbanisation and rising cooling demand push power consumption to unpreced
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 08/05/2026
With the new NMME model update, even the more conservative relative Oceanic Nino Index metric now has us roughly tied with 1998 and 2026 El Nino events: dashboard.theclimatebrink.com#enso
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
Compound drivers of Antarctic sea ice loss and Southern Ocean destratification Stronger westerlies drove upwelling & intense mixing, exposing sea ice to hidden deep ocean heat The result: a self-reinforcing low-ice state that may persist under continued GHG forcing www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Compound drivers of Antarctic sea ice loss and Southern Ocean destratification
Recent sea ice loss was initiated by ocean upwelling in East Antarctica and by radiative flux anomalies in West Antarctica.
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Solar is forming an Indian 'duck curve', well, more like a 'Bactrian hump' (two hump camel). The amount of solar used during the day is really eating into coal use. Solar is big in India! 3/
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ClimateDynamics @climatedynamics.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
Very cool @nationalacademies.org report release webinar relevant to the Palcolimate community on "Functions and Criteria for a New Center for Paleoenvironmental Records of Extreme Events". April 29. Sign up! www.nationalacademies.org/projects/DEL...
nationalacademies.org
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Ambarish Karmalkar @ambarish.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
Abstract: The case is made that machine-learning statistical estimation neither can nor should be expected to supplant physics-based simulation for weather forecasting. journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org
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Ambarish Karmalkar @ambarish.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
"Understanding where confidence is justified, and where uncertainties remain, is important for interpreting current El Niño headlines responsibly." www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med...
ecmwf.int
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 10/04/2026
We now have 13 different models with 637 different ensemble members with El Niño forecasts out through at least September 2026. They suggest a best estimate of 2.2C for September; interestingly ECMWF (which was seen as particularly hot when it came out) is right around the middle of the pack:
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Ambarish Karmalkar @ambarish.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
No matter how you feel about this mission with so much else going on, you can’t deny that it’s offering some pretty introspective views of our place in the vastness of space
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Ambarish Karmalkar @ambarish.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Photo taken during the Artemis II showing Earth in the background, setting behind the lunar surface
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Katie Mack @astrokatie.com · 06/04/2026
NASA isn't why the US doesn't have universal healthcare, or a social safety net. The US doesn't have those things because politicians with the power to provide them choose specifically not to (with varying levels of support from voters). Enthusiasm for human spaceflight doesn't drive that choice.
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Ambarish Karmalkar @ambarish.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
Climate coverage slowly disappearing from US mainstream media grist.org/language/glo...
grist.org
The planet is overheating. Why is the news looking away?
Since 2021, global media coverage of climate change has dropped 38 percent. Blame wars, political chaos, and Jeffrey Epstein.
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Ambarish Karmalkar @ambarish.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
Wow! And you can barely see the atmosphere. It's so thin; you can feel how fragile it is.
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Katie Mack @astrokatie.com · 03/04/2026
More context on this #Artemis II image: * This is the night side, lit by moonlight. You can see city lights in Spain & Portugal, & a sliver of day at lower right * The Sun is entirely behind Earth, which makes it a kind of solar eclipse, but w/ Earth doing the eclipsing instead of the Moon: ☀️🌍🚀🌕
A full disc image of Earth, as seen from the Orion Crew Module. The planet is a pale blue, swirling with white clouds and glowing slightly lighter blue in place from reflected light. At lower left, a large brown landmass is Africa, with Spain and Portugal with twinkling lights where the planet curves. At top right, auroras glow in a thin green glow, just barely separated from the planet's surface. Earth is set against the black of space (pic: NASA/R.Wiseman)
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 03/04/2026
Ultimately, our results (in this high-resolution model ensemble) highlight the benefits of early climate mitigation for reducing extreme precipitation events, while also underscoring the complexity of regional responses, which are shaped by seasonality, local-scale processes, and other factors.
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Ambarish Karmalkar @ambarish.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
Orion on its way with Orion in the background? www.nasa.gov/missions/art...
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Katie Mack @astrokatie.com · 02/04/2026
"The real threat is a slow, comfortable drift toward not understanding what you're doing. Not a dramatic collapse. Not Skynet. Just a generation of researchers who can produce results but can't produce understanding."
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CosmoQuest @cosmoquest.org · 02/04/2026
There are now 10 toilets in Space International Space Station: 4 Crew Dragon Docked at ISS: 1 Soyuz Docked at ISS: 1 Tiangong Space Station: 2 Shenzhou Docked at TSS: 1 Artemis II on way around Moon: 1 This will be the first time a toilet has left low earth orbit!
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Richard Waite @waiterich.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Maybe Bluesky will get mad at me for saying this, but this is a bizarre headline because if you actually read the article it says the exact opposite. Please consider reading the whole article before doom-sharing the irresponsible headline.
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Dakota Smith @weatherdak.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
The Canary Islands enveloped in dust as waves and vortices swirl off of them. A fascinating, complex view.
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Ambarish Karmalkar @ambarish.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Artemis II is expected to set a new record for the farthest humans have ever traveled from Earth www.nbcnews.com/science/spac...
nbcnews.com
Countdown to Artemis II: What to know about NASA's moon mission
Four astronauts are set to lift off Wednesday on a journey around the moon — the first such mission in more than 50 years.
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