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Albert Varela

@albertvarela.bsky.social
678 followers 951 following 11 posts

Lecturer in Quantitative Methods - School of Sociology and Social Policy, University of Leeds. 
Interested in measurement and analysis of job quality, poverty and social mobility.

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Reposted by Albert Varela
Jan Vanhove @janhove.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
New blog post: "Cluster analysis: A skeptic’s guide". In which I ask a few questions that social scientists wishing to identify hidden classes in their data ought to address. janhove.github.io/posts/2026-0...
A two-dimensional scatterplot showing a three-cluster solution.

Caption: "Figure 2: A visualisation of a Latent Profile Analysis fit. Such visualisations may help readers appreciate that the clusters aren’t nicely separated and that the researchers’ notion of clusters may not correspond to their own."Table of contents:

Refresher: What is cluster analysis?
What are the clusters for?
What clusters, exactly?
Does the pipeline work?
What does the solution look like?
When running follow-up analyses, how is the uncertainty in the cluster assignments taken into account?
Was it worth it?
Conclusion
References
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Peter Tennant @pwgtennant.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
"Why epidemiology should not be automated: the case for slow epidemiology" Read my new letter with @haidonglu.bsky.social and @epidbydesign.bsky.social in @intjepidemiol.bsky.social explaining the limits of generative AI for epidemiological research! academic.oup.com/ije/article/...
"Bann et al. pose the question, ‘why can’t epidemiology be automated (yet)?’, as though the automation of epidemiology is both inevitable and desirable [1]. They describe a future of ‘1-click reviews’ and ‘end-to-end automation’ that will ‘[boost] the efficiency of current practice and … [create] new opportunities for’. But scientific discovery requires far more than increased efficiency. In epidemiology, new knowledge comes from critical reasoning about data, about context, and about the limits of our existing understanding. Such reasoning, in turn, demands deep thought, scholarship, and diligence. All are threatened by automation..."
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Danbischof @danbischof.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
📄 New working paper out: osf.io/preprints/so... We (@thiloalbers.bsky.social @felixkersting.bsky.social and Fabian Kosse) try to understand why some citizens who are objectively well off still feel left behind, and why this matters for populist attitudes.
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Nando Sigona @nandosigona.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
Once again, more EU citizens are leaving the UK than arriving. A negative net migration figure of -42,000 — is this what @andyburnham.bsky.social, #ShabanaMahmood and #KeirStarmer celebrate as a success and a goal to achieve for #migration overall?
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Enrique Fernández Macías @quiquefm.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
New paper out! With P. Casas, F. Martínez-Plumed, E. Gómez, I. González-Vázquez & S. Salotti, we revisit the occupational impact of AI in the GenAI era, tracking exposure from 2008 to 2024 across 127 occupations in Europe. Thread 1/13 #EconSky #sociology
publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu
Revisiting the occupational impact of AI in the generative AI era
Generative AI is reshaping what artificial intelligence can do in the workplace, calling into question pre-GenAI assessments of which workers and tasks are most exposed. In this paper we trace the evo...
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
Statistical Rethinking 2026 is done: 20 new lectures emphasizing logical and critical statistical workflow, from basics of probability theory to causal inference to reliable computation to sensitivity. It's all free, made just for you. Lecture list and links: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
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Sociological Science @sociologicalsci.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
NEW: Haowen Zheng, Robert Andersen, Anders Holm, Kristian Bernt Karlson, "Is College Really “the” Equalizer? New Evidence Addressing Unobserved Selection." sociologicalscience.com/articles-v13...
sociologicalscience.com
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Lecture A09 - I get mildly ranty about the low quality of papers on discrimination and somehow also introduce generalized linear models for events and illustrate post-stratification. The theme continues next week with modeling sensitivity to unmeasured confounding. I will try to be less ranty.
youtube.com
Statistical Rethinking Lecture A09 - Modeling Events
YouTube video by Richard McElreath
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Herman van de Werfhorst 🟥 @hermwerf.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
A slacking occupational structure in Britain? Reflections on my substack on a piece in the @financialtimes.com by John Burn-Murdoch. And what does this piece imply for the debate on overeducation? @data.ft.com hermwerf.substack.com/p/a-slacking...
hermwerf.substack.com
A slacking occupational structure in Britain?
Reflections on a recent column in the Financial Times
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Problem about the loneliness epidemic is, it's everywhere except in representative survey data. Let's look at where the claim comes from. 1/
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Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 11/02/2026
I just whipped up this little #QuartoPub site last week that demonstrates how I teach p-values/hyp-testing through simulation both with live OJS and with #rstats, and I think it's super neat! It has examples for diff-in-means, diff-in-props, and regression slopes nullworlds.andrewheiss.com #statsky
Simulated null distribution for data with a sample size of 100, difference in group means of 5, and a p-value of 0.142Simulated null distribution of a slope of 0.8 and p-value of 0.002Finally, we have to decide if the p-value meets an evidentiary standard or threshold that would provide us with enough evidence that we aren’t in the null world (or, in more statsy terms, enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis).

There are lots of possible thresholds. By convention, most people use a threshold (often shortened to α) of 0.05, or 5%. But that’s not required! You could have a lower standard with an α of 0.1 (10%), or a higher standard with an α of 0.01 (1%).

Statistically significant
The p-value is < 0.001 and our threshold for α is 0.05

In a world where there is no relationship between x and y, the probability of seeing a slope of at least 0.901 is < 0.1%

Since < 0.001 is less than 0.05, we have enough evidence to say that the slope is statistically significant.

Evidentiary standards

When thinking about p-values and thresholds, I like to imagine myself as a judge or a member of a jury. Many legal systems around the world have formal evidentiary thresholds or standards of proof. If prosecutors provide evidence that meets a threshold (i.e. goes beyond a reasonable doubt, or shows evidence on a balance of probabilities), the judge or jury can rule guilty. If there’s not enough evidence to clear the standard or threshold, the judge or jury has to rule not guilty.

With p-values:

If the probability of seeing an effect or difference (or δ) in a null world is less than 5% (or whatever the threshold is), we rule it statistically significant and say that the difference does not fit in that world. We’re pretty confident that it’s not zero.
If the p-value is larger than the threshold, we do not have enough evidence to claim that δ doesn’t come from a world of where there’s no difference. We don’t know if it’s not zero.
Importantly, if the difference is not significant, that does not mean that there is no difference. It just means that we can’t detect one if there is. If a prosecutor doesn’t provide sufficient evidence to clear a standard or threshold, it does not mean that the defendant didn’t do whatever they’re charged with†—it means that the judge or jury can’t detect guilt.
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
This time I try to explain group-level confounding and some ways to deal with it. Lecture B04 of Statistical Rethinking 2026 - fixed effects, Mundlak machines, latent Mundlak machines, intro to social network analysis and the social relations model. Full lecture list: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
youtube.com
Statistical Rethinking 2026 Lecture B04 - Group-level confounding and intro to social networks
YouTube video by Richard McElreath
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
As a statistical educator, it had not occurred to me that I need to caution students against regressing a variable on a function of itself. My naivete is unbounded. The Peri & Sparber paper (linked below) looks really good! It has synthetic data analyses and everything.
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
And we're live, Lecture A1 is online. Introduction to Bayesian workflow, generative models, estimands, estimators, estimates, error checking, beginnings of probability theory and Bayesian updating. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztbY...
youtube.com
Statistical Rethinking 2026 - Lecture A01 - Introduction to Bayesian Workflow
YouTube video by Richard McElreath
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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 30/12/2025
Here are my favourite 2025 papers on climate policy/politics (listed in no particular order). 1. Ascari, Guido, Andrea Colciago, Timo Haber, and Stefan Wöhrmüller. 2025. ‘Inequality along the European Green Transition’. Economic Journal. doi.org/10.1093/ej/u...
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Nando Sigona @nandosigona.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
What do Britons know and think about #irregularmigration? Read new @iclaimeu.bsky.social report out today i-claim.eu/project/publ...
i-claim.eu
Public understanding and attitudes to irregular migration in the UK - I-CLAIM
This report summarises findings from the February 2025 I-CLAIM survey of 1,147 UK adults, exploring public knowledge of irregular migration, how people define it, and their attitudes toward irregular ...
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
On the morning of Keir Starmer's conference speech here's a new post on an odd psychopathology in British politics - our main parties don't like the people who vote for them - the dreaded Professional Managerial Class. And so they are acting out like a divorced dad seeking cooler voters. 1/n
benansell.substack.com
British Politics' Midlife Crisis
Why British Parties Can't Make Peace with Their Actual Voters
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José Antonio Noguera @josenoguerauab.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
Young researchers in social policy, submit!
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Michael Friendly @datavisfriendly.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
#rstats It is with profound sadness I heard that my long-time friend and colleague, John Fox passed away this week. He was the author of {car}, {effects}, {Rcmdr}, ... and numerous influential books. I will miss him greatly. www.john-fox.ca
john-fox.ca
John Fox: Books and Software
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Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 22/11/2025
After more than 10 years of “the Danish Model”, nativism is hegemonic in the country, the far right polls near level highs again, and the Social Democrats lost Copenhagen and poll at historic low. European Social Democrats should look at the facts, not the myths! Me in @theguardian.com
theguardian.com
The ‘Danish model’ is the darling of centre-left parties like Labour. The problem is, it doesn’t even work in Denmark | Cas Mudde
This week’s local elections are the latest reminder that when social democrats move rightwards, they’re making a mistake, says academic and author Cas Mudde
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Emanuel Deutschmann @deutschmann.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
New #openaccess study We made >16,000 visa appointment requests at German embassies and consulates worldwide Key finding: The poorer the country, the longer the wait time and the lower the chance to get an appointment. "A time panelty for the Global South?" shorturl.at/ZiAFb
Visas are a key tool for states to regulate incoming mobility from abroad, which can have ramifications for the
establishment and perpetuation of global inequalities. In this article, we systematically analyze visa appointment
wait times in German embassies and consulates worldwide. Using computational methods, we collect—and
publish—fine-grained longitudinal data on the closest available appointment dates for various visa types,
covering a total of 16,182 visa appointment requests. Our analysis reveals strong and systematic variance: the
poorer the country a diplomatic mission is based in, the longer the wait time and the lower the chances of finding
an available appointment (which ranges from almost 0 to 100 percent). We also argue that Germany’s system is
quite opaque compared to other established immigration countries such as the U.S. These core findings raise
important questions in light of current debates about global justice, legal pathways to migration, and efforts to
attract foreign talent.Graph that shows that 44.1 percent of requests did not lead to an appointment that could be selected. For the 55.9 percent where an appointment was available the distribution of wait times follows a steep curve with short wait times in many cases and a long tail of few cases with very long wait times of up to 98 days.The average wait times and chances to find an appointment varied a lot between Germany's diplomatic missions. The latter range from almost 0 to 100 percent.This variance is not random. Rather, economic wellbeing (GDP per capita) is a key predictor of wait times and chances of finding  an appointment. The poorer the country a German embassy/consulate is based in, the longer the wait time and the lower the chances of finding an appointment.
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Albert Varela @albertvarela.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
“Little boxes” and “Coat of many colors”
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Julius Kölzer @juliusk.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
The electoral outcome most strongly linked to deprivation is not any party’s vote share, but turnout. Across almost all indicators, turnout is markedly lower in more deprived areas, with only barriers to housing & services and quality in the living environment showing weaker correlations.
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Andrew Bell @andrewjdbell.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
Pleased to see this out in print - detailing MAIHDA's desirable statistical properties. "MAIHDA is especially valuable when inequalities are subtle or data for marginalised intersections are sparse - conditions common in practice" journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... @clarerevans.bsky.social
journals.sagepub.com
The Statistical Advantages of Multilevel Analysis of Individual Heterogeneity and Discriminatory Accuracy for Estimating Intersectional Inequalities - George Leckie, Andrew Bell, Juan Merlo, SV Subram...
Multilevel Analysis of Individual Heterogeneity and Discriminatory Accuracy (MAIHDA) is a multilevel regression approach grounded in intersectionality theory. I...
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Enrique Fernández Macías @quiquefm.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
We just published a new report synthesizing more than 7 years of research on the impact of digital technologies on employment in Europe carried out with my team in the JRC. Lots of evidence and ideas for discussion! #EconSky #sociology @sergiotorrejon.com @lauranurski.bsky.social
publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu
Work in the Digital Era: How Technology is Transforming Work and Occupations
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of digital technologies on work and occupations in Europe, critically reassessing dominant narratives of mass unemployment and job polarisat...
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Ronja Sczepanski @ronjasczepanski.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
Ever asked yourself how to detect and extract social groups from texts with computational social science? @haukelicht.bsky.social and me have a solution for you out at @bjpols.bsky.social. You can also find the pre-trained models on huggingface!
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Mike McCarthy @itsmccarthy.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
What do unions do? On average they make the members about $870k more wealthy over time, new findings at Social Forces show.
Abstract
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 25/08/2025
Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life? Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social) Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf... Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...
Models as Prediction Machines: How to Convert Confusing Coefficients into Clear Quantities

Abstract
Psychological researchers usually make sense of regression models by interpreting coefficient estimates directly. This works well enough for simple linear models, but is more challenging for more complex models with, for example, categorical variables, interactions, non-linearities, and hierarchical structures. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to making sense of statistical models. The central idea is to abstract away from the mechanics of estimation, and to treat models as “counterfactual prediction machines,” which are subsequently queried to estimate quantities and conduct tests that matter substantively. This workflow is model-agnostic; it can be applied in a consistent fashion to draw causal or descriptive inference from a wide range of models. We illustrate how to implement this workflow with the marginaleffects package, which supports over 100 different classes of models in R and Python, and present two worked examples. These examples show how the workflow can be applied across designs (e.g., observational study, randomized experiment) to answer different research questions (e.g., associations, causal effects, effect heterogeneity) while facing various challenges (e.g., controlling for confounders in a flexible manner, modelling ordinal outcomes, and interpreting non-linear models).
Figure illustrating model predictions. On the X-axis the predictor, annual gross income in Euro. On the Y-axis the outcome, predicted life satisfaction. A solid line marks the curve of predictions on which individual data points are marked as model-implied outcomes at incomes of interest. Comparing two such predictions gives us a comparison. We can also fit a tangent to the line of predictions, which illustrates the slope at any given point of the curve.A figure illustrating various ways to include age as a predictor in a model. On the x-axis age (predictor), on the y-axis the outcome (model-implied importance of friends, including confidence intervals).

Illustrated are 
1. age as a categorical predictor, resultings in the predictions bouncing around a lot with wide confidence intervals
2. age as a linear predictor, which forces a straight line through the data points that has a very tight confidence band and
3. age splines, which lies somewhere in between as it smoothly follows the data but has more uncertainty than the straight line.
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Corey Moss-Pech @cmpech.bsky.social · 13/08/2025
Check out my new article in the Journal of Organizational Sociology, where I examine how technology limits the autonomy of entry-level workers. I theorize two subtypes of technical control and discuss its implications for gender inequality www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...
degruyterbrill.com
“The System Sucks”: Computer Programs and Technical Control in Entry-Level White-Collar Work
Researchers often examine how technology controls the labor of precarious workers while demonstrating the limits of technology on controlling professional workers. Drawing on a subset of 46 in-depth i...
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Albert Varela @albertvarela.bsky.social · 05/08/2025
Not recent, but may be of interest onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Two societies, one sociology, and no theory
This article shows the declining effectiveness of the sociological classics to make sense of the dramatically changing economy and society. However, the various ‘post-something’ analyses of such tran...
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David Buil-Gil @davidbuil.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
New how-to guide now available on the European Network for Open Criminology website. This time @asiermoneva.com shares advice on writing reproducible and readable analysis code. Highly recommended! esc-enoc.github.io/how-to/repro...
esc-enoc.github.io
Write Reproducible and Readable Analysis Code – European Network for Open Criminology
Find out how to make your analysis code easy to share, understand, and reproduce.
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Jonathan Hopkin @jonathanhopkin.eurosky.social · 23/07/2025
The outsourcing boom of the Major-Blair years saved money in the short run but left the state without the capacity to do anything but buy in services from canny private providers who have us over a barrel and are raking it in
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LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg @lisdata.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
🚨 Major release alert We’re thrilled to launch lissyrtools v0.2.0 — our R package that makes working with LIS & LWS microdata simpler, faster, and clearer 📦 🧵 1/12
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Dr Hayley Bennett @haylesben.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
Interested in employment and social security research? Please follow the account below (we've moved from X and need to rebuild our following!)
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easystats @easystats.github.io · 27/05/2025
🆕 Introducing check_group_variation() in the {performance} #Rstats package! 🎉 This function makes it easy to checks if variables vary within or between levels of grouping variables. Perfect for understanding and designing mixed models 🚀 easystats.github.io/performance/... #stats #easystats
mlmRev::egsingle |>
  performance::check_group_variation(
    select = c("female", "grade", "math"),
    by = c("schoolid", "childid"),
    include_by = TRUE
  )
#> Check schoolid variation
#>
#> Variable | Variation |  Design
#> ------------------------------
#> childid  |      both |  nested
#> female   |    within | crossed
#> grade    |      both |
#> math     |      both |
#>
#> Check childid variation
#>
#> Variable | Variation | Design
#> -----------------------------
#> schoolid |   between |
#> female   |   between |
#> grade    |      both |
#> math     |      both |
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 26/05/2025
Writing some paragraphs about odds ratio and, more generally, different scales in nonlinear models. Any favorite articles on odds ratio?>
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Jonathan Hopkin @jonathanhopkin.eurosky.social · 13/05/2025
I’ll take the cutting migration idea seriously the day a politician actually outlines a serious budgeted plan for training British-born workers for the skills we’re short of, and housing them in the places where they’re needed. Until then it’s just the worst kind of blame-shifting propaganda
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Marie Le Conte @youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com · 12/05/2025
christ, what a day to be an immigrant cursed with the ability to read
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Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 08/05/2025
On the verge of declaring defeat with chatgpt in my asynchronous online dataviz class. Something changed this semester compared to past ones and SO MANY assignments are essentially 100% LLM output.
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Daniel 🕹️ @strengejacke.de · 06/05/2025
I know it's getting boring when I keep posting easystats-stuff, but here's an example (vignette) how to "tweak" mixed models (demeaning) to get unbiased estimates: easystats.github.io/parameters/a... I wouldn't call it "tweaking mixed models", because FE do the same. It rather about data...
easystats.github.io
Analysing Longitudinal or Panel Data
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Vincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
📚😅🎉 Yay!! I just submitted the complete manuscript of my upcoming book to the publisher! Learn to easily and clearly interpret (almost) any stats model w/ R or Python. Simple ideas, consistent workflow, powerful tools, detailed case studies. Read it for free @ marginaleffects.com #RStats #PyData
Model to Meaning: How to interpret statistical models with marginaleffects for R and Python
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Katy Morris @katymorris.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
New #dataviz in @sociusjournal.bsky.social Did the occupational structure evolve in the same way in different parts of London between 1991 and 2021? In short: no, it was very much A Tale of Two Cities journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
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Keonhi Son @keonhison.bsky.social · 17/03/2025
📣NEW PUBLICATION As a Korean who grew up in a low-income area in the 90s, I've long wondered why the gap between welfare laws and practice is rarely discussed. doi.org/10.1177/1468...
doi.org
Discrepancy of social insurance between laws and practices: Implementation challenges of maternity leave in 73 low- and middle-income countries - Keonhi Son, 2025
Although comparative welfare research has long criticized that the social insurance system in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) fails to cover the under-...
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Sergio Torrejón @sergiotorrejon.com · 03/03/2025
📢 Book Alert! "Global Trends in Job Polarisation and Upgrading: A Comparison of Developed and Developing Economies" is out! Published by Palgrave Macmillan/ Springer, this volume examines global patterns of job creation at a global scale | 🔗 link.springer.com/book/10.1007... #EconSky #sociology
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Christoph Scheuch @christophscheuch.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
📢 New R package on CRAN: {owidapi}! Easily pull chart data from @ourworldindata.org into R: fetch data, explore datasets & embed charts in docs & Shiny apps (experimental). Feedback & ideas welcome 🙏
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Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 19/02/2025
I really liked this idea of using a histogram as a legend in a choropleth map (since land isn't unemployed; people are), so I made a little guide to doing it with #rstats, {ggplot2}, and {patchwork} www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2025/02...
andrewheiss.com
How to use a histogram as a legend in {ggplot2} | Andrew Heiss
Land isn’t unemployed—people are. Here’s how to use R, {ggplot2}, {sf}, and {patchwork} to create a histogram legend in a choropleth map to better see the distribution of values.
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Rushani Wijesuriya @rush-099.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
Hot off the press! 📣📣In this tutorial we illustrate available multiple imputation approaches for handling longitudinal data including when they are clustered within higher level clusters. A reproducible example with R and Stata code provided! #OpenAccess onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Multiple Imputation for Longitudinal Data: A Tutorial
Longitudinal studies are frequently used in medical research and involve collecting repeated measures on individuals over time. Observations from the same individual are invariably correlated and thu....
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 16/01/2025
As expected, the APC talk for the sociologists was a lot of fun! In case you're curious, you can find the slides here: osf.io/mvqkx
First slide of the slide deck "Thinking cleary about age, period, and cohort effects"
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Maik Hamjediers @mhamjediers.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
📢 Flexible working supposedly addresses women's work-family conflicts but is less prevalent in women-dominated occupations. @aljoschajacobi.bsky.social, @tabeanaujoks.bsky.social & I explore why and how this has changed over past decades Out in @socialindicators.bsky.social doi.org/10.1007/s112...
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