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Ryan Cummings

@weakinstrument.bsky.social
2K followers 579 following 259 posts

Chief of Staff @SIEPR. Economic Adviser @MITCEEPR. PhD'ing @UW. 2021-2023 WH CEA. I research energy markets during the transition and, as a treat to myself, consumer sentiment. Views my own.

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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 13h
Mandatory.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
1/2 Me+@jaredb-econ.bsky.social are out w/ a new piece examining how much revenue is needed to justify hyperscaler AI capex. We estimate that incremental AI revenue is currently b/n $86-$188.1B for the hyperscalers, but they need $13.1-$18.7 *trillion* over the next decade for that to pencil out.
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bbtoc.bsky.social @bbtoc.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
here in MA people at a cafe were just griping about their first oil deliveries of the year. prices are 74% more expensive than last year.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
A 90 day diesel export ban would truly be a storied piece of policymaking because it would quite literally be the worst of both worlds; refiners would cut runs, throw excess production into storage (instead of sending to rest of US), *raising* prices domestically AND internationally.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
1/n: Because of record-breaking diesel prices, the Trump Admin is reportedly considering a diesel export ban. There is one part of the country that this would squeeze tremendously, risking physical shortages that would prevent people from heating their homes in winter: New England (PADD 1A).
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chloe gibbs @chloergibbs.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
A longtime career goal to be on Marketplace, and I had to decline the first time I was asked because I was working at the White House. 🥁 So without further ado, I weigh in with thoughts on the gender pay gap and in particular, impact on child care workers and implications for the broader workforce.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Great new paper showing that the effect of the U.S.-Israel bombing of Iran was to essentially change protests from being against the hardline Iranian government to being for it. Hard to imagine losing this war--among every dimension--even worse than the U.S. and Israel already has.
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Relatedly, my SIEPR colleague @weakinstrument.bsky.social is in the New York Times today, talking about the AI equities boom and what happens if it looks like AI investments will not be profitable for a while: www.nytimes.com/2026/07/22/b...
“If investors are told, well, actually, instead of five to seven years, it’s going to be 15 to 20 years to pay off, that’s a very big difference,” said Ryan Cummings, the chief of staff for the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, who recently published an article warning about the risks of an A.I. bubble.

“Right now, the burden of proof is on the skeptics,” he added. “Once you have this slow trickle of disappointing information, then the burden starts to be on the optimists.”
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
When I ran BLS, I was asked constantly about the impact of AI on jobs. It's still one of the most common questions I get. So we put together a policy brief - for policymakers, journalists, and anyone trying to sort through what is happening with AI and jobs: siepr.stanford.edu/publications...
siepr.stanford.edu
What is really happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality
Other
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OB Cycler @obcycler.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
45K+ bodies a year. In my city we have 3x as many fatalities from reckless driving than homicides. 1. There exists dumb traffic cameras which just take a picture of the plate & the offense and are not networked to other system. 2. Most PDs aren't even using flock cameras for traffic violations.
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Lorenzo Salgado lived here longer than I’ve been alive, married to his wife of 30 years. Worked a blue collar job building houses to put his three kids through college. A real American and the kind of man they tell you you’re supposed to be. Fascism is so perverse.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
It’s not a great sign that 1/3rd of the Supreme Court read what is arguably the most unambiguous part of the constitution and thought “no, actually the President can invalidate this 😜😜.”
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
GS estimating that consensus estimates for hyperscaler AI capex next year of $920 billion are ***too conservative*** and instead the right number is between $1-1.4 *trillion.* We're either at the bottom of a mountain or at the top of a cliff!! Exhilarating!!!! Terrifying!!!!
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Evan George @evanlgeorge.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
If you don't plan to celebrate America's 250th birthday by visiting ornamental fountains in D.C. or watching UFC fighters spar outside the White House, here are some picks for the best parks and public lands from my colleagues at the @uclalawemmett.bsky.social. legal-planet.org/2026/05/28/n...
legal-planet.org
America the Beautiful — Not Beautification Projects - Legal Planet
Oh, what a time to be an American! The Drain is a weekly roundup of environmental and climate news from Legal Planet.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
~90% of the Somalis in MN are American citizens; this is the President directly calling 100,000 of our fellow countrymen and women crooks, 10 days after he announced his intention to steal $1.8 billion from taxpayers to pay him and his friends. If you're not going crazy, you've never been sane.
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Nandita Sharma @nsharma101.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Boycott ON! The [NAACP] urges Black athletes to withhold commitments to athletic programs in eight states over redistricting, and it also asks fans to stop buying tickets.” wapo.st/43hRsdT
wapo.st
NAACP calls for college sports boycott in states targeting Black voting power
The group urges Black athletes to withhold commitments to athletic programs in eight states over redistricting, and it also asks fans to stop buying tickets.
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Patrick De Haan @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
there has been talk about waiving the 18.4c/gal (gasoline) federal tax on gasoline and 24.3c/gal on diesel- these taxes also have not increased since 1993. If the fed tax on gasoline is waived, it would cost the government $2.1 billion in lost revenue per month.
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Timothy McBride @mcbridetd.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Opinion | Mass Deportation and American Jobs A study finds that U.S. employment falls in areas with more ICE arrests. www.wsj.com/opinion/mass...
wsj.com
Mass Deportation and American Jobs
A study finds that U.S. employment falls in areas with more ICE arrests.
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NPR @npr.org · 07/05/2026
The vast majority of Americans — 8 in 10 — say there should be age caps for members of Congress, as well as term limits, according to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll. n.pr/4ngwZiW
n.pr
In a new poll, Americans voice broad bipartisan support for age caps in Congress
The vast majority of Americans — 8 in 10 — say there should be age caps for members of Congress, as well as term limits, according to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Me, @jaredb-econ.bsky.social, @nealemahoney.bsky.social, and Caleb Brobst are out with a piece today estimating the impact of 3 prominent Trump policies: OBBA refunds, tariffs, and gas prices. We estimate the combined impact of these will result in the average househould losing >$1,100 in 2026.
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WIRED @wired.com · 04/05/2026
Alexis Goldstein, a former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau employee, was fired this year for recording DOGE’s incursion into the agency. www.wired.com/story/a-fede...
wired.com
A Federal Worker Was Fired for Filming DOGE. Now She’s Running for Congress
Alexis Goldstein, a former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau employee, was fired this year for recording DOGE’s incursion into the agency.
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UCLA Emmett Institute @uclalawemmett.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Affordability is too often justification for lowering our ambitions to transition from fossil fuels to clean energy. Panel 2 of our recent symposium covers the complexity of the issue. Plus: a high-speed lecture on CA oil prices from @weakinstrument.bsky.social www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJzV...
youtube.com
"Can Abundance be Sustainable" Panel 2: Affordability and the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels
YouTube video by UCLA Emmett Institute
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
This isn't even remotely close to true. ~0 of those barrels were incremental, and all the sanctions waivers did was effectively allow the Iranians to sell oil to other countries at a prices *higher* than they were selling them to the Chinese, who were buying 98% of it at a discount.
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Evan George @evanlgeorge.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Repeat after Ryan: "More drilling in California would not insulate the state from price spikes, because the price of oil is determined on the global market." Louder in the back, now!
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Me and @nealemahoney.bsky.social are in the LAT today arguing that CA oil industry is trying to use the current crisis to jam through its deregulatory wishlist. Instead of caving, the state should use this moment to be a leader in the "mid-transition." www.latimes.com/opinion/stor...
latimes.com
Contributor: Oil industry's wish list is not the way to help Californians
The state should expand import infrastructure to protect against the refinery outages that disrupt our fuel supply.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
Great example of this is monetary policy. Nearly 2/3rds of CEOs in a survey wouldn't even venture a guess as to what the Fed's inflation target was (something that directly impacts their business, btw!) and of those who guessed, only 20% could correctly identify it. www.nber.org/papers/w28836
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
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NPR @npr.org · 14/04/2026
Behind the acid blood and jump scares of the Alien franchise is an even more insidious horror: a single employer with unchecked power. How Weyland-Yutani helps explain monopsony — and the rise of inequality on Earth. n.pr/4dGFaCl
n.pr
The labor economics of 'Alien' — and its lessons for inequality on Earth
Behind the acid blood and jump scares of the Alien franchise is an even more insidious horror: a single employer with unchecked power. How Weyland-Yutani helps explain monopsony — and the rise of inequality on Earth.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
However much you think we should be funding cancer research, I can guarantee you it's not enough. The economic benefit of getting rid of it would be $197 ***TRILLION*** over 35 years. We should easily be 100Xing federal funding of this research, and instead we're cutting it.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
What should be particularly worrisome for Trump: sentiment declined this month the most for *Republicans.* Even more so over a 6-month window. He's also completely wiped out the post-election enthusiasm among Rs; sentiment for Ds and Is is down sharply. (w/ @nealemahoney.bsky.social)
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
Updating this chart from me and @nealemahoney.bsky.social and adding a new one. Increases in the gas prices since Iran conflict have been unrelenting (+$1.14/gal since Feb 28), and we have now witnessed the biggest 30 day increase in gasoline prices on record (data going back to 1993).
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Bobby Kogan @bbkogan.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
every time i write about wage theft i do a double take because it's so crazy corporations steal more than $50 bn from workers' paychecks each year, illegally paying workers less than they earned for their labor that significantly exceeds the combined losses from larceny, burglary, & vehicle theft
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
“We’re going to cut your healthcare to pay for more wars“ is certainly a message one can choose to run on, I suppose.
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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Gas prices and tax refunds go hand in hand. When the cost of the first goes up, the payoff from the other goes down. A new analysis by SIEPR's @nealemahoney.bsky.social, @jaredb-econ.bsky.social, Caleb Brobst and @weakinstrument.bsky.social explaining this effect is causing quite a stir. Read on👇
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
Never underestimate the abilities of a great survey field professional
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
FT reporting $2m was paid to Iran for passage through SoH. If you have a VLCC then at $100/bbl, that’s just 1% of the total cost of the cargo/it only increases cost by (a maximum of) $1/bbl. I would have to imagine for that price, the demand for these sorts of waivers is going to be EXTREMELY high.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Updated from me and @nealemahoney.bsky.social. After slowing down last week, the surge in gasoline prices is starting to run away from the spike observed after Russia/Ukraine. 90 cents/gallon increase in just 19 days, or ~5c/day. >$375M extra consumers are paying every day than before the war.
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Matt Zeitlin @zeitlin.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
You know those "dubai physical barrels" you hear so much about? Well, in California, they're exposed to that price because the asian refiners that the state imports gasoline and components from are buying Gulf oil @weakinstrument.bsky.social heatmap.news/energy/calif...
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Matt Zeitlin @zeitlin.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
"6, 7" are the numbers you're likely going to be seeing on gas station signs throughout California. How did we get here? ft @weakinstrument.bsky.social and @severinborenstein.bsky.social heatmap.news/energy/calif...
heatmap.news
Why Gas in California Is Almost $6 a Gallon — and Could Go Higher
War with Iran adds to a long list of factors making California gas hella expensive.
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Patrick De Haan @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
According to live GasBuddy gas price data, Americans today will spend ~$350 million more on gasoline than they did Feb. 28. So far since Feb. 28, Americans have spent $3.7 billion more on gasoline.
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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
⛽️Surging gas prices are taking a bite out of President Trump's promised tax refunds promised, and could devour the largest checks. The math in link 👇, courtesy of SIEPR's @nealemahoney.bsky.social, @jaredb-econ.bsky.social, Caleb Brobst and @weakinstrument.bsky.social. #GasPrices #Affordability
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
1/ Me, @nealemahoney.bsky.social, @jaredb-econ.bsky.social, and Caleb Brobst have a new analysis out, estimating that higher oil prices resulting from Iran bombing will largely wipe out increased tax refunds for the average family. nealemahoney.substack.com/p/spiking-ga...
nealemahoney.substack.com
Spiking Gasoline Prices May Wipe Out Larger Tax Refunds Touted by Trump
Since the U.S.
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Quantian @quantian.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
Responding to high oil prices by shorting futures instead of opening the SPR is exactly the sort of galaxy brain macro dipshittery only Scott Bessent would think of, I’m looking forward to them getting a hundred billion dollar margin call and sending crude to $500
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
I just overheard a couple liberals at a coffee shop say that when you combine what Costa said below with the nearly unprecedented decline in emissions in Trump’s last year in office in his first term, it’s starting to look like Trump might be the most pro-climate President ever.
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Disheartening to see anyone taken seriously who says US (or California) oil production protects consumers from Iran war impact. Producers argue world market sets the price. Correct! Oil price reflects value, not proximity, as recent gasoline price jumps show. www.foxnews.com/video/639043...
foxnews.com
Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ policy shields consumers from Iran-driven oil shocks, economist says | Fox News Video
Unleash Prosperity co-founder Stephen Moore says record U.S. oil and gas production will help counter Middle East turmoil and prevent a spike in gas prices in the wake of recent Iran strikes.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
If this scenario happens, this would drive national average gas prices well above $5.00/gallon—likely close to $5.25-$5.50. It would shatter the record set in the summer of 2022. What’s extraordinary is unlike then, this would be entirely out of the President’s own choosing.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
1/3: Here's what wild about gas prices right now. The past two days have seen the largest increase in gas prices ($0.22/gallon) since 2005, making it one of the fastest increases ever. What's suprising about this is not only the magnitude, but the speed of the passthrough.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
The cost of the war in concrete terms: in March, avg daily U.S. gasoline consumption is ~368M gallons. This means for every $10/bbl increase in crude, Americans pay an extra $90M at the pump *every day* that prices are elevated (once the increase is transmitted to retail prices).
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
I'm in the NYT today w/ @jaredb-econ.bsky.social We expand upon a point raised by @weisenthal.bsky.social previously made--part of crypto's decline is because the industry has been using the Biden Regulatory Boogeyman as an excuse for lack of adoption. With Trump in office, that excuse doesn't hold.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
If the Democratic Party folds on its demand that members of Congress and the Administration cannot profit off of crypto (especially right after we've learned the current President has taken billions in bribes through crypto) b/c the crypto lobby has a lot of money, it should cease existing entirely.
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