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Severin Borenstein

@severinborenstein.bsky.social
8.5K followers 131 following 419 posts

Economics, Business, and Energy Prof at UC Berkeley. Member, Board of Governors, CA ISO. All opinions only my own.

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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
WSJ's Matthew Dalton has an excellent comprehensive explainer on global diesel supply. No DJT, the main problem isn't Ukraine defending itself from Russia by hitting Russia's refineries. www.wsj.com/business/ene...
wsj.com
Refineries Are Now the Main Chokepoint for Global Energy Supplies
The Iran and Ukraine wars have exposed the world’s reliance on the Middle East and Russia for diesel.
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
For comparison, US uses about 374m gallons of gasoline/day and that's increased $1.37/gal since 2/27/26 or $512m/day. So direct inflationary impact would be somewhere around 0.6%.
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
US uses appx 143m gallons of diesel/day. So $2.60/gal increase since Feb 27 is about $371m/day. US GDP is about $84,932m/day. So assuming full passthrough, shouldn't direct inflationary impact be somewhere around 371/84932=0.44%? Of course it's more much complicated, but interesting ballpark calc.
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
My EI post contrasts funding of fixed costs of local roads and fixed costs of local elec distribution. Price of driving on local road is zero, reflects social cost. Price of using distrib lines avg 35% of bill, but it's social cost is also typically zero. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/09/14/w...
energyathaas.wordpress.com
Why Don’t We Pay For Distribution Lines Like Roads?
The current approach to financing local electricity infrastructure undermines safety and decarbonization. Many of our Energy Institute bloggers have at some point written a post that discusses the …
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Really interesting post by Lucas Davis in the Energy Institute blog on the impact of the China Shock on AC adoption in US. I didn't realize that the price of room ACs dropped by 50% in the first decade of this century, but flat since. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/08/31/d...
energyathaas.wordpress.com
Did the China Shock Increase Air Conditioning Adoption?
China joined the WTO in 2001 and has dominated air conditioner manufacturing ever since. It’s been a very hot summer and one of the surprising themes in media coverage has been the focus on Chinese…
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
US LNG exports increased by over 3 Bcf/day in first 6 mo of 2026 (to 17.4 Bcf/day) compared to 2025. US produces about 108 Bcf/day, so that's not a trivial share of total US natural gas. www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...
eia.gov
U.S. LNG exports rose 23% in the first half of 2026 because of higher capacity - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
I am shocked! shocked! that there is market manipulation going on in these gambling markets. www.wsj.com/politics/ex-...
wsj.com
Ex-Congressman George Santos Receives Kalshi’s First-Ever Lifetime Ban
The decision comes after a federal regulator alleged he made more than $17,000 by placing bets on his attendance at the State of the Union address.
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
First-rate reporting from S&P global on the global refining sector capacity shortage. Includes intriguing stat that Jones Act waiver has led to 200 foreign-flag shipments of crude and refined product between US ports. www.spglobal.com/energy/en/ne...
spglobal.com
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Related EIA explainer on storage capacity versus inventory that can actually be accessed. www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...
eia.gov
What are tank bottoms? - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Another great explainer from NYT w some cool history and photos of Cushing, OK, the heart of US oil transportation and storage. No surprise that inventories are declining, but a good reminder that there are limits. Still, futures market thinks we won't hit them. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/28/b...
nytimes.com
Why These Giant Storage Tanks Increasingly Hold Very Little Oil
Oil companies and governments are consuming their once vast stockpiles as Iran and the United States continue to struggle for control over the Strait of Hormuz.
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Well done primer on diesel prices and crack spread from the New York Times yesterday. Impact on truckers and farmers is very serious. But US consumes more than twice as much gasoline as diesel. Diesel impact on total economy just not as large. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/26/b...
nytimes.com
Diesel Price Nears Record High, Helping Oil Companies and Hurting Consumers
The cost of the fuel, used in farm machinery, trucks and other heavy equipment, has surged because of the war in Iran and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Excellent coverage from CBC on Canada-US trade dispute and outrageous demands that the US side made. Clear that trump admin through in obvious deal killers at the last minute, bargaining in bad faith. Once again, uniting Canadians across the political spectrum. podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/h...
podcasts.apple.com
How the Canada-U.S. trade deal fell apart
Podcast Episode · Front Burner · August 24 · 36m
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Meredith Fowlie has an excellent Energy Institute post on the largest factor driving up California electricity rates: wildfires. We need to re-examine strict liability for utilities, not for their benefit, but for ratepayers'. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/08/24/w...
energyathaas.wordpress.com
Who Should Pay for Utility-Ignited Wildfires?
This cost allocation fight is not a zero sum game On January 7, 2025, sparks from arcing electrical lines ignited dry brush in a canyon above Altadena. Powerful Santa Ana winds fanned flames that r…
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Another's sobering reminder from EIA that technological progress continues along in fossil fuel energy, not just in renewables. Ultimately, decarbonizing without strong government policy seems unlikely. Sadly, so does strong government policy. www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...
eia.gov
Longer wells boost Permian crude oil and natural gas production - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
In EI blog, Aaron Smith discusses harsh realities of biofuels policy impacts on deforestation and GHG releases. And what it would take to avoid them. After two decades of debate, indirect land use effects are still not taken seriously enough. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/08/17/h...
energyathaas.wordpress.com
How to Prevent Biofuels from Causing Deforestation
This year, the federal government requires that more than 10% of diesel used in the US be biofuel. To meet this requirement, Americans will have to use almost 7 billion gallons of biomass-based die…
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Jim Sallee's insights on offshore wind in EI blog today. Trump's payments to rescind leases are a huge waste of money, but not biggest culprit in the offshore wind retrenchment. POTUS "just spent $3.9 billion of taxpayer dollars spent to shoot a corpse." energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/08/10/w...
energyathaas.wordpress.com
Who Killed Offshore Wind?
A closer look at $3.9 billion in lease buyouts suggests they are bad policy but probably irrelevant to deployment Climate headlines often nudge me toward despair. Heat waves, wildfires, and melting…
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Oil producers and refiners making boatloads of money due to scarcity of oil and refining capacity. Trump says they should give it back by charging prices below market levels. Isn't that what Republicans call... Socialism? www.wsj.com/business/ene...
wsj.com
Trump Blasts Big Oil Companies for ‘Making Too Much Money’
The president called out ExxonMobil and Chevron for record profits amid high oil prices.
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
By my calculation, if refinery margins today were at lower pre-February 27 levels, current spot gasoline prices could only be maintained with crude prices around $100/bbl. That is, current gas price are equivalent of about $100 oil with normal refinery margins.
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Focus on oil price obscures huge refinery margins due to damaged and blocked refineries from Russia/Ukraine and US-Israel/Iran wars. Scarce refinery capacity is both pushing up gasoline prices and pushing down demand for and price of oil. www.wsj.com/business/ene...
wsj.com
‘Refine, Baby, Refine’ Is the Energy Industry’s New Mantra
America’s fuel-makers are maxed out as they try to fill in the gaps of the global fuel supply crunch.
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
With demand response, devil is in the details, but exciting to see CEO of Southern Co discuss DR as major part of their new contract with OpenAI for a 3.2 GW data center. Has to be real reductions (not gamed baselines) with real penalties for failure to perform. www.utilitydive.com/news/souther...
utilitydive.com
Southern Co. contracted large load rises to 17 GW
Recently announced projects include a 3.2-GW OpenAI data center near Savannah, Georgia. The contract includes 1 GW of “flexible demand response” for peak shaving — the first such flexibility provision...
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Excellent podcast from Columbia Energy Exchange. Interview with Javier Blas on the lessons from Iran war. Particularly important reminder that refining sector disruptions playing huge role in gasoline/diesel prices. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/j...
podcasts.apple.com
Javier Blas on Lessons from Closing Hormuz (So Far)
Podcast Episode · Columbia Energy Exchange · August 4 · 1h
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Reposted by Severin Borenstein
Banafsheh Keynoush بنفشه کی نوش @banafshkeynoush.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Join my upcoming program @cwclub.bsky.social: A conversation with U.C. Berkeley's @severinborenstein.bsky.social to discuss how the U.S.-Iran conflict & disruptions in the Strait of #Hormuz impact global oil, gas, and #energy security including in the U.S.: www.commonwealthclub.org/events/2026-...
commonwealthclub.org
The U.S.-Iran Conflict and Energy Markets
In this program, we explore how the U.S.-Iran conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz impact global oil, gas, and energy security, including in the United States, analyzing maritime blockages...
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
This is hardly the most egregious example of the lies, corruption of justice, and autocratic tendencies of this administration, but still worth noting how trump tears down the institutions that protect everyday citizens. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
washingtonpost.com
How Trump’s claims of vandalism at the renovated Reflecting Pool crumbled
Trump has lashed out at U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro after she dropped vandalism cases and blamed damage at the pool on rushed and flawed work by a contractor.
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
In this week's Energy Institute blog, Jim Bushnell reports on important new research on GHG leakage in California's cap and trade market. His work with Kevin Novan shows that this remains a major challenge when CA imports electricity. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/08/03/c...
energyathaas.wordpress.com
California’s Electricity Imports Are Much Cleaner. How Much of it is Real?
About half of the largest emissions reduction in California’s cap-and-trade program came from clean power that already existed. One of the central challenges in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) …
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Berkeley physics (emeritus) Professor Rich Muller and his daughter, Liz, ready to build small reactor a mile beneath Kansas town. Both science and economics sound daunting, but I would not bet against Rich. www.wsj.com/us-news/clim...
wsj.com
An Underground Nuclear Reactor Is Coming to This Kansas Town—and Dividing Locals
No one has tried operating a commercial one a mile down—until now in Parsons. “It’s great that it’s here. It’s kind of bad that we’re the guinea pigs,” says one local leader.
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
My post Monday broke down last 20 years of CA's rising gasoline premium over rest of US: 60% taxes and enviromental fees, 50% marketing/distribution/retailing, -10% wholesale commodity price. Time to get deeper understanding of furthest downstream sectors. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/07/27/w...
energyathaas.wordpress.com
Why Do Californians Pay More At the Pump?
Breaking down more than two decades of the state’s gasoline price premium. The war is back on, crude oil prices are back up, and the cost of gasoline has reversed its declines of a few weeks ago. H…
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Nice explainer in the FT on which price of oil we should be talking about. Front month futures price is usually "good enough", but not during times of extreme volatility. Temporal and geographic variation can be huge in the very short run, eg, last few trading days. www.ft.com/content/94f2...
ft.com
Why the ‘oil price’ isn’t always the oil price
Contango for two
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Jumping back in and catching up. In the EI blog last week, Meredith confronted the very difficult issue of what to do with gas distribution systems as we transition off of natural gas. Tough to balance efficiency, fairness, commitment to decarbonization. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/07/20/w...
energyathaas.wordpress.com
Why Are We Sinking Billions into a Gas System We Plan to Leave Behind?
Old rules, new pipes, and a shrinking customer base. Our natural gas distribution system is aging. Chances are, there’s an aging gas main under a street near you that will pose some leakage risk in…
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Lucas Davis writes in Energy Inst blog that end of tax credits for heat pumps have had no discernible effect on heat pump sales. Bad news: some subsidy was wasted government spending. Good news: heat pumps now on a sustainable growth trajectory. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/07/13/w...
energyathaas.wordpress.com
Will U.S. Households Still Buy Heat Pumps Without a Tax Credit?
From 2023-2025 there was a $2,000 U.S. income tax credit for heat pumps. Not anymore. The last few years were a great time to buy a heat pump. U.S. households installing a heat pump during 2023, 20…
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Detailed FT article highlights why refined product prices have not fallen as fast as we would expect, even from normal rockets and feathers adjustment. Russia/Ukraine and US-Israel/Iran wars have also disrupted refining, especially for diesel. www.ft.com/content/4895...
ft.com
World faces growing diesel supply crunch as Russia cuts off exports
Ukraine drone strikes have hammered Russia’s refineries
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
This certainly has drivers going back to the fight over the Keystone XL pipeline, but it also has roots in ridiculous US tariffs and the Gordie Howe bridge. www.ft.com/content/e5ff...
ft.com
Canada unveils plans for new oil pipeline to break dependence on US
Project to supply Asia with 1mn barrels per day comes amid trade hostilities with southern neighbour
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Max Auffhammer's must-read post yesterday about a new paper examining the relationship between wind turbines and adverse health impacts. TLDR: None found. One empirical paper does not close a literature, but this one sure should move beliefs. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/07/06/a...
energyathaas.wordpress.com
Are Wind Turbines Making People Sick?
New research finds no evidence of negative health impacts from wind turbines Maybe it’s because I am currently in Portugal (which is totally next door to Spain) and re-reading Don Quixote, that I a…
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Trump managed to make the World Cup about him and in the process anger much of the world. And then much of the world cheered at a US failure. Recurrent theme. Sad that in the process he dragged down the fine athletes of the USMNT. www.wsj.com/sports/socce...
wsj.com
‘Overturn This.’ Boiling Belgium Taunts Trump and Sends U.S. Soccer Packing.
A lively march to the World Cup’s round of 16 reaches a familiar end versus an extra-motivated contender. Where does U.S. men’s soccer go from here?
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Belated congratulations to Pattern Energy on the New Mexico SunZia Wind Project and Transmission Project. The combination will deliver over 2 GW of power to Southern California, while also supplying to Arizona and New Mexico. www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...
eia.gov
Largest wind farm in the United States slated to begin commercial operations - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
EIA has a detailed history of US energy consumption over 250 years, from the early renewables (wood) to coal to hydrocarbons and most recently the growth of nuclear and now wind and solar, which still have a long way to go. www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...
eia.gov
The 250-year history of U.S. energy consumption - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Very useful extended piece in Utility Dive on the costs and benefits of DOE's 202(c) orders that are keeping open some coal plants under the argument that they are needed for grid reliability. www.utilitydive.com/news/doe-eme...
utilitydive.com
DOE emergency orders are incurring additional costs. What are the benefits?
Some of the generating units have operated during tight grid conditions and may have contributed to reliability. Keeping them running costs about $550 million a year, the Sierra Club says.
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
In the Energy Institute blog this week, Andy Campbell's really nice explainer about negative energy prices, electricity and nat gas. It pairs well with Lucas's post 2 weeks ago on renewables curtailment, especially for a microecon or energy markets course. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/06/29/t...
energyathaas.wordpress.com
The Curiosity of Negative Energy Prices
Negative energy prices reveal opportunities for markets and consumers. US consumers have experienced rising prices for most of this decade. Energy bills have climbed at an even faster rate – partic…
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
My blog post this week discusses both the supply/demand reasons that oil prices never reached the stratospheric levels some predicted during the Iran conflict, and the political/Trumpy reasons. The combination dampened a price spike. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/06/22/w...
energyathaas.wordpress.com
Why Hasn’t the Iran War Driven Oil Prices Even Higher?
Supply and demand likely play an important role, but so do market expectations. When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in early March 2026, the media carried some pretty scary predictions of what wo…
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
In this week's EI blog, Lucas Davis uses some cool data visualization techniques to look at the time trend in solar/wind curtailments in California. They are way up. The analysis reveals some interesting seasonal patterns in the changes. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/06/15/v...
energyathaas.wordpress.com
Visualizing California Renewables Curtailments
Alternative ways to see California’s record-breaking April 2026. April 2026 was an all-time record for renewables curtailment in California. 1.46 million MWhs. That’s a lot. Equivalent to 18% of al…
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Meredith Fowlie's Australia trip prompted her to write an insightful post about the very different ways CA and AUS are going about decarbonization. I love the dynamic pricing innovation, still trying to figure out why rooftop solar is SO much cheaper there. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/06/08/d...
energyathaas.wordpress.com
Decarbonization Down Under
Clean energy transition, Aussie rules. I’m visiting the University of Melbourne. Lucky me. During the first week of our visit, my son and I got to watch an AFL “footy” match at the Melbourne Cricke…
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
California's Mystery Gasoline Surcharge in May was lower than it was before the war. CA has problems in its fuel industry, but it is hard to find theoretical or empirical support for the idea that the war worsened those problems.
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
There were many hyperventilating reports, even from WSJ, that CA would get slammed bc gets much oil through Strait of Hormuz. "Last oil shipment from Strait to CA means skyrocketing prices soon!" But mkt reallocated oil, like it does; CA stayed in line with rest of US. www.wsj.com/business/ene...
wsj.com
Think $6 Gas Is Bad? It’s About to Get Even Worse in California
The Golden State depends more on crude-oil shipments from the Middle East than any other U.S. state.
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Very busy couple weeks, but back to posting. 2 weeks ago, Jim Bushnell blogged about intriguing new research suggesting that getting drivers to accept managed EV charging may be more difficult than we'd hope. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/06/01/m...
energyathaas.wordpress.com
Managed EV Charging: Good Work, If Anyone Would Take It
Even Silicon Valley EV owners mostly say no to letting the utility schedule their charging. Most of the public attention paid to electric vehicle (EV) policy has focused on getting them on the road…
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
World has lost 10-15m bbl/day and started war w aggregate stocks of about 10b bbl. There won't be a stockout, but as stocks are drawn down, they become more valuable and prices rise. There's a limit to how long Trump can jawbone prices down as stocks fall. www.ft.com/content/7b32...
ft.com
Chevron CEO warns oil prices to jump over summer as supplies dwindle
Blockade in Strait of Hormuz has removed up to 13mn barrels a day from global markets and drawn down ‘shock absorbers’
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
The Energy Institute at Haas is hiring an Office Manager. If interested, go to this Berkeley jobs page. External to UC and Internal applicants have separate links. Please search for job number “86265”. More info on EI: haas.berkeley.edu/energy-insti... berkeley.us13.list-manage.com/track/click?...
berkeley.us13.list-manage.com
Home | Berkeley Jobs
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
The UK is taking an important step towards energy affordability that California should emulate. They are moving policy costs off of electric bills and on to the government budget. We suggested this for CA 5 years ago. haas.berkeley.edu/energy-insti... www.cornwall-insight.com/press-releas...
cornwall-insight.com
Budget Cuts over £145 from Annual Household Energy Bills, But Affordability Challenge Remains
Households could see around £145 a year in policy costs cut from energy bills in April under measures announced in the Chancellor’s Budget.
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
This, just a couple of weeks after we were told Europe is about to run out of jet fuel. It turns out that markets are pretty good at reallocating supplies to where they fetch the highest price. www.ft.com/content/ceaa...
ft.com
European oil refiners and airlines have ‘almost zero’ jet fuel shortage concerns
Refiners maximise production and increase imports from US and Africa to offset loss of Middle Eastern supplies
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
To those who didn't like Lucas Davis's post today on consumer savings from shale gas, because it only briefly mentions that calculations exclude negative enviromental cost: Facts are the beginning (and foundation) of a useful policy discussion, not the end. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/05/11/h...
energyathaas.wordpress.com
How Much Has Shale Gas Saved U.S. Consumers?
About $200 billion annually since 2007, according to a new Energy Institute working paper. The war in Iran has pushed up natural gas prices in most of the world. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices …
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
Hey @pacificgaselectric , why every month do I get an email saying "Your PG&E Energy Statement is Ready to View" but when I login will only show me total owed and a message that the detailed bill won't be ready until the next day? It's almost as if PG&E doesn't want me to look at my detailed bill.
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Severin Borenstein @severinborenstein.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Jim Sallee's EI blog about his important new paper w Koichiro Ito and Andrew Smith showing large international spillovers of fuel economy standards. Japan car makers redesigned cars for their own standards and ended up saving US buyers a lot of gasoline. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/05/04/m...
energyathaas.wordpress.com
Made in Japan, Cleaner in America
A new EI working paper shows that a fuel-economy incentive in Japan created spillover benefits in the US market. Japanese cars affected by the policy improved MPG in the US, leading to greater gree…
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