Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 21/09/2026I think r* has probably gone up, at least over the medium term. econjared.substack.com/p/reconjared.substack.comr*!Just because you can’t see it doesn’t mean we can’t talk about it! 063
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 19/09/2026These two things are closely connected, right? 1) Spiking gas price (diesel highest on record; "cars run on gas; economies run on diesel") and this "don't look there; look here!" breaking news (NYT): 2206
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 05/09/2026The White House Budget Office (kinda) released the Mid-Session Review today. It's the barest bones MSR ever, w almost no budget numbers, no deficit accounting (revs - spending) and, for the 1st time in history, I believe, no economic forecast. www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u... 12614
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 28/08/2026I woke up, wrote a table-setter for the big Warsh speech, including the table below and hopes for some clarifications from the new chair. Then updated after the speech, which had +'s and -'s. Check it out: econjared.substack.com/p/before-and... 075
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 26/08/2026Fed officials have been leaning toward a rate hike, and basically challenging the data to talk them off of the ledge. This AMs PCE report doesn’t say “jump” but neither does it say “come inside and let’s talk this out.” 072
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 22/08/2026Those of us tracking the reliability of gov't statistics have not heretofore seen anything like this. It's a remarkable and deeply worrisome encroachment: econjared.substack.com/p/the-govern...econjared.substack.comThe Government Report That Made Me Stop Trusting Our Statistical AgenciesI’ve waved people off this degree of mistrust. I no longer can do so. 24325
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 09/08/2026It's good to see more construction jobs, but I suspect I speak for many: we'd like to see more homes, less data centers! (data are basically residential--down--and nonresidential--up--subcontractors) 0197
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 06/08/2026From this AMs productivity data, BLS labor share lowest on record & tanking. Measurement issues bias this down some, but direction of travel is clear. And this is at low unemp. It's a sign of a serious distributional problem and further evidence of (good) macro/(bad) micro split. 1136
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 15/03/2026Up-to-date info on pre-war econ baseline and post-war econ impacts. Yes, oil and gas, but not just them (that's the 30-year mortgage rate below). econjared.substack.com/p/weekly-wra... 1134
Reposted by Jared BernsteinDavid Madland @davidmadland.bsky.social · 10/03/2026The affordability debate is overlooking a key factor: higher wages. Union bargaining is the way to get there, @jaredb-econ.bsky.social and I argue for @theprogressivemag.bsky.social: tinyurl.com/mr2n8pastinyurl.comHow Union Bargaining Can Buoy AffordabilityA true affordability agenda should raise wages. Unions and collective bargaining can help achieve that. 2155
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 25/02/2026This is such important work, and practically in real time, which is very important. Also, shows economists can apply our skills to aid the resistance! 0157
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 11/02/2026Aside from the annoying moderator, I thought this price control debate was 1-2 std devs above the mean for this sort of thing. Jam packed with substance, evidence, logic, tradeoffs, clarity, and respect. And on an interesting, timely topic. www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrpm...youtube.comThe Affordability Conundrum: A Debate on How To Deliver Immediate Relief While Expanding SupplyYouTube video by Center For American Progress 242
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 05/01/2026Affordability policy is often accused of aiming to lower the overall price level. Not so! The agenda is grounded on 2 criteria: a) short list of living-standard essential goods/services, wherein b) the market that produces them is flawed. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/o...nytimes.comOpinion | Yes, Politicians Should Run on Affordability 1153
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 29/12/2025Explaining the "big, yellow gap" between how folks feel about the economy these days (bad) and overall growth (good). As usual, we don't have all the data we need to explain the gap, but I draw on a lot of what we do have. econjared.substack.com/p/is-this-ec...econjared.substack.comIs This Economy Great or Awful?A Q & A on the factors behind the "big, yellow gap." 1146
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 12/12/2025Gemini just told me this: "While many people in the finance industry are increasingly interested in strength training, there are no well-known, high-profile economists famous specifically for their fitness or a muscular physique." Sounds right but I'd still like a fact check. 2131
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 02/12/2025I'm seeing this from the excellent @gelliottmorris.com: "I explain how “affordability” has become the new “inflation”" I've learned over many years now that affordability is much more a price level issue than a price change issue (tho normal people conflate the 2). It's not that people are fine... 2122
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 01/12/2025Healthcare affordability policies reside at the intersection of good politics (for Ds) and good policy (for all...well, except rent-seekers). Joint w @nealemahoney.bsky.social econjared.substack.com/p/healthcare...econjared.substack.comHealthcare Affordability: How Democrats Can Press Their Advantage On This Key IssueHere's a set of affordability ideas that reside at the intersection of good politics and good policy. 1133
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 30/11/2025Should they cut or should they hold? Or should they push the damn meeting back a bit to have a few more drops of precious data?! Some noodling on the Fed's Dec meeting: econjared.substack.com/p/should-the...econjared.substack.comShould They Cut or Should They Hold?"If they cut there will be trouble. If they hold it will be double." So, what the Fed should really do is push the meeting back a few days. 181
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 25/11/2025You know how many were saying, even as the u-rate crept up of late, "of course, X% is still historically low unemployment." I think at 4.4%, that's no longer quite right, but interested in others'--some name-checked here--takes. econjared.substack.com/p/tuesdays-m...econjared.substack.comTuesday's Mashed PotatoesGetting ready for T-giving, here's a mash up: a few numbers of interest, and Greg Ip says affordability can't be solved and is therefore a loser for incumbents. 141
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 23/11/2025My mind has been blown! I grew up listening to the highly nuanced music of the Modern Jazz Quartet featuring Connie Kay on drums. I just learned that Connie Kay played on Joe Turner’s shake rattle and roll w its huge crazy backbeat! How did I not know that?! (Tho there’s some disagreement.) 180
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 19/11/2025The affordability crisis focuses on prices. That makes sense for reasons I articulate in this piece, but for economists, it's not just p (prices) that matter. It's y/p (real incomes). Just want to be careful not to lose sight of that part of the equation! econjared.substack.com/p/the-afford... 0135
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 13/11/2025A calculation somebody needs to do: take u-rate, payroll change, infl rate and average month t-1 and t+1. Report forecast error re t. @guyberger.bsky.social @ernietedeschi.bsky.social @aaronsojourner.org Thank u 4 your attention to this matter. 0145
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 10/11/2025Sorry, progressives & health care policy wonks. But we're going to have to re-remind everyone why Health Savings Accts are a tax shelter for the wealthy, not health insurance. Note distribution of premium tax credits vs. HSA contributions. www.cbpp.org/blog/five-re...cbpp.orgFive Reasons Lawmakers Should Reject Expansions of Health Savings AccountsExpanding health savings accounts (HSAs) is a key element of Republicans’ health care policy agenda. Ostensibly, HSAs allow people enrolled in certain health insurance policies to set aside money... 33715
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 05/11/2025Seems strong to me! Gorsuch today, warning about this very point: “a one-way ratchet toward the gradual but continual accretion of power in the executive branch and away from the people’s elected representatives.” We fought a revolution against such kingly actions to tax w/out consent from Congress! 1245
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 04/11/2025On Trump's tariffs, I consistently find myself in firm agreement with the often crazy WSJ ed board! Their latest on how SCOTUS conservatives would have to bend themselves into a massive pretzel to support Trump is deeply incisive, rooted in historical precedent. www.wsj.com/opinion/dona...wsj.comOpinion | The Tariff King and the Supreme CourtWill the Justices stop Trump from usurping Congress’s power over taxes and tariffs? 1134
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 02/11/2025Tough to square the following a) it's not tariffs keeping inflation above target & b) rates must be cut. If it's not tariffs/goods pressures--which should subside when (if!) tariffs land on a rate--then it's something else that's harder to "look thru." www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...nytimes.comFed Governor Defends Call for Big Rate Cuts 1101
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 22/10/2025There's considerable evidence that consumer spending is increasingly skewed toward the top, driven by the weaker job market and slower wage growth. Given the extent to which spending has fueled this expansion, that's a fragility that bears close watching. econjared.substack.com/p/whos-spend...econjared.substack.comWho's Spending and What Does That Imply For Growth?The weight of the evidence suggests an economy that's considerably more fragile than some of the data--remember when we used to get data?--are showing. 5308
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 14/10/2025It looks like a bubble to us: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/o...nytimes.comOpinion | A.I. Sure Looks Like a Bubble. Watch Out When It Pops. 4248
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 09/10/2025Re the shutdown, this is one of those moments when it's crystal clear who's fighting for whom: econjared.substack.com/p/breaking-n...econjared.substack.comBreaking News: Contrary to their Claims, Republicans are Perfectly Happy to Raise TaxesAnd not by a little, but by over 100% and over $100bn. It's just a matter of who they hit. 213756
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 03/10/2025I'm way outta my lane here, and playing with very hot fire. No intention to throw any shade, just wondering if others hear it. The hook on Taylor Swift's new single reminded of that from this older Demi Levato tune. www.youtube.com/watch?v=svcb... www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zfz...youtube.comTaylor Swift - The Fate of Ophelia (Visualizer)YouTube video by Taylor Swift 110
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 03/10/2025Just so you know, if you hear a collective wail of pain, angst, and withdrawal from data nerds the world over at 8:30am ET this morning, here's why. 2385
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 01/10/2025Paging @jedkolko.bsky.social @econberger.bsky.social @marthagimbel.bsky.social @ernietedeschi.bsky.social @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social @markzandi.bsky.social and all others who can help here. I know we've always downplayed ADP, for good reasons. It's a different beast in many ways than BLS estab... 262
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 23/09/2025New from @nealemahoney.bsky.social and me: "Building an affordable economy: A three-legged stool strategy." Everybody's talking affordability, as they should be! Here's our framework & principles: siepr.stanford.edu/publications... Substack summary: econjared.substack.com/p/a-three-le...econjared.substack.comA Three-Legged Affordability Agenda!Just out from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, by yours truly and the great Neale Mahoney. 095
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 16/09/2025Not what I'd spend my time on right now, policy-wise, but seems fine for SEC to give public companies a choice of reporting earnings quarterly or semi-annually, as in the UK. 132
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 09/09/2025I did not fully appreciate how the BLS's staff efforts to “publish reliable data” could become an act of bravery in the struggle to preserve democracy. But that’s exactly what it is. econjared.substack.com/p/a-contrast...econjared.substack.comA Contrast in Numbers: The White House Forecast vs. BLSThe White House grows out of its deficit problem by way of a fantasy forecast. And then tells us it's BLS that's cooking the numbers. 24912
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 07/09/2025As a former CEA chair, keeping that job* while being a Fed gov is like having the same guy be your AA sponsor and your bartender. *This is the case even w "leave of absence," whatever that means. 0185
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 03/09/2025Fun fact: Wally Adeyemo is just great to listen to on matters econ. Clear, concise, compelling, with years of experience to back it all up. Here he is on the latest episode of "Let's Do Lunch!" contrarian.substack.com/p/lets-do-lu...contrarian.substack.comLet’s Do Lunch! 09/02A recording from Jared Bernstein's Let's Do Lunch 09/02 054
Reposted by Jared BernsteinJohn Cassidy @johncassidysays.bsky.social · 01/09/2025This from @jaredb-econ.bsky.social "Labor Day message. History is clear that capitalism remains a highly effective system of generating growth and technological gains. But without an organized and aptly sized political counterforce, it will concentrate wealth and power..." 1/2 23315
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 26/08/2025Trying to take a few minutes away from the news of the day but fate had other ideas. 1914
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 12/08/2025All here: www.marketwatch.com/story/bls-no...marketwatch.comBLS nominee made claim that no ‘sensible economist would use’ — and that’s one of the kinder comments about himPresident Donald Trump’s nominee to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics has made a series of controversial assertions that critics say undermines his desire to have the agency better collect and proce... 1147
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 03/08/2025From 30k feet up, the affordability agenda is a three-legged stool: 1) Take down regs whose cost>benefits to make it cheaper & faster to build in the US. 2) Direct subsidies to lower-inc HHs in key goods/servs where markets fail to meet affordable needs, such as child care and housing. 3) Reduce... 2224
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 02/08/2025Can’t do it. There’s just no substitute. We could get some useful info for sure, but BLS and rest of government stat infrastructure irreplaceable. For one, they make such info a public good. Who wants to pay for the unemployment rate? (I mean, I would, but u know what I mean.) 15387101
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 01/08/2025I am. The BLS is staffed w high integrity staff who are 100% committed to accuracy and best practices. But yes—very worried about this. 510325
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 01/08/2025When they were little, I also used to make breakfast for the kids on jobs day. I’d ask them to predict payrolls and u rate. They did no better or worse than the pros. 0365
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 30/07/2025Was just half-listening to Powell presser and thought I heard him implicitly disagree w Waller re labor-market assessment. Gov W says it’s weak: Chair P says it’s solid. Key difference prob where you see labor supply. P sees it slowing at similar rate to labor demand (see u rate). 0132
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 22/07/2025Very interested in what Nick, one of the nation's premier Fed reporters, with deep historical knowledge, has to say about recent Fed...um..."developments." 073
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 22/07/2025Here's the great @nealemahoney.bsky.social and I on a framework for thinking about affordability policy. econjared.substack.com/p/everybodys...econjared.substack.comEverybody's Talking About Affordability Policy. But How's That Supposed to Work?Here's a framework on which to build out the policies and the big-tent politics. 1113
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 18/07/2025Fed gov Waller makes a three-part argument for cutting rates at July meeting: 1) tariffs 1-time hit to inflation (raises price level, not growth rate) 2) economy's kinda weak: "Real (GDP) growth was likely around 1% in the first half of this year and... www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...federalreserve.govSpeech by Governor Waller on the economic outlookThank you, John, and thank you for the invitation to speak to you today. My purpose this evening is to explain why I believe that the Federal Open Market Comm 293
Reposted by Jared BernsteinJohn Cassidy @johncassidysays.bsky.social · 17/07/2025Thrilled to do this interview with @jaredb-econ.bsky.social for @contrariannews.org about what the history of capitalism can teach us today. Smith, Marx/Engels, Polanyi, Keynes, Kalecki, Sweezy, Friedman--we packed a lot in! 02210
Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 15/07/2025Very excited to reunite with CEAs former chief econ. Definitely be getting into the new CPI report; I got issues with the inflation outlook (based in part on Ernie's graphics from this AM): econjared.substack.com/p/data_note-...econjared.substack.comData_Note: I'm concerned about the CPIIt came in at expectations, but between the tariffs (which I think only get worse in this space), the housing supply shortage, and sticky service prices, my spidey sense is triggered. 0124
