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Ryan Cummings

@weakinstrument.bsky.social
2K followers 579 following 262 posts

Chief of Staff @SIEPR. Economic Adviser @MITCEEPR. PhD'ing @UW. 2021-2023 WH CEA. I research energy markets during the transition and, as a treat to myself, consumer sentiment. Views my own.

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Reposted by Ryan Cummings
Dean Lee @deanlee.info · 05/10/2026
Uber subsidized marketplace liquidity to lock in local network density. Frontier labs are funding clusters and training runs that lose pricing power within eighteen months, while API switching costs stay negligible. That capitalizes fast depreciation rather than a defensible moat.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
well said!!
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
econjared.substack.com/p/a-budding-...
econjared.substack.com
A Budding Consensus on AI Revenues, and Some Thoughts on the AI Labs IPOs
We recently argued, once again, that AI is a bubble. We’re not alone.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
@jaredb-econ.bsky.social and I are looking at the AI labs this week. We show they're losing money in historically large amounts and fast, too; e.g. OpenAI has lost nearly 75% of the amount of money Uber cumulatively lost over 8 years. We also highlight their fragile financing structures, too.
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Reposted by Ryan Cummings
Jeff Stein @jeffstein.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
News - Trump is set to attend another dinner at his resort for the biggest buyers of his meme coin You can probably get in to see the president for $1 million Trump has pocketed $635 million Investors down +$4 billion on Trump crypto www.washingtonsun.com/whitehouse/t...
washingtonsun.com
Want Dinner With the President? Buy His Meme Coin.
The $Trump meme coin is offering buyers a new "exclusive" opportunity to meet the president.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Mandatory.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
2/2 One thing I want to emphasize: it is very, very difficult for both observers *and the firms themselves* to understand what the ROI of these projects even is, which is a bit wild considering how much is being spent. Link here: econjared.substack.com/p/ai-compani...
econjared.substack.com
AI Companies Are In a Race Against Time
They may disemploy us; they may wipe us out. But right now, their lack of profitability underscores our bubble case.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
1/2 Me+@jaredb-econ.bsky.social are out w/ a new piece examining how much revenue is needed to justify hyperscaler AI capex. We estimate that incremental AI revenue is currently b/n $86-$188.1B for the hyperscalers, but they need $13.1-$18.7 *trillion* over the next decade for that to pencil out.
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Reposted by Ryan Cummings
bbtoc.bsky.social @bbtoc.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
here in MA people at a cafe were just griping about their first oil deliveries of the year. prices are 74% more expensive than last year.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Ok ran a couple back on the envelope calcs and don't think prices would increase domestically (in the short run), and the market's reaction to the alleged export ban quite a bit of price decreases. international prices would still increase; refining runs may or may not be cut.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The Trump Administration continuing with their "all costs, little to no benefits" philosophy of economic policymaking. They are consistent if nothing else, although you do not, in fact, have to hand it to them.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
A 90 day diesel export ban would truly be a storied piece of policymaking because it would quite literally be the worst of both worlds; refiners would cut runs, throw excess production into storage (instead of sending to rest of US), *raising* prices domestically AND internationally.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Thanks for the kind words, Tom!
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Thank you ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Thank you for the kind words, Mike!
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Historically yes, although the Trump Admin issues a Jones Act waiver which negates this issue. The problem is that if the supply of seaborne oil shrinks by 20% overnight, the cost of shipping becomes second order.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Oh also #EnergySky
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
6/end: Banning diesel exports would, in effect, be a small subsidy to farmers and other industrial users of diesel across the country at the expense of New England residents, who would see heating costs skyrocket if not run into acute physical shortages.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
5/n: What's so worrying is that in the Biden Admin, when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and the global diesel market tightened, we were concerned that PADD 1A might actually run out of physical diesel and have to engage in rationing. By all accounts, the situation is even worse now.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
4/n: This matters much more for PADD 1A than anywhere else in the country because in New England, diesel isn't just for industrial uses; *half* of homes in Maine use diesel (No 2. fuel oil) for heating. Over a million people in MA use it for home heating.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
3/n: Because the U.S. exports so much diesel, banning those exports would shrink global supply, raising global prices and therefore the imported price that PADD 1A pays. This also couldn't be happening at a worse time; diesel inventories in PADD 1A are lower than anypoint in the past 10 years.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
2/n: Banning diesel exports would *temporarily* provide some price relief for most of the country, but not for New England. Because pipelines don't run that far north, PADD 1A has to import large amounts of diesel, which means it's competing with a (structurally short diesel) Europe for barrels
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
1/n: Because of record-breaking diesel prices, the Trump Admin is reportedly considering a diesel export ban. There is one part of the country that this would squeeze tremendously, risking physical shortages that would prevent people from heating their homes in winter: New England (PADD 1A).
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Reposted by Ryan Cummings
chloe gibbs @chloergibbs.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
A longtime career goal to be on Marketplace, and I had to decline the first time I was asked because I was working at the White House. 🥁 So without further ado, I weigh in with thoughts on the gender pay gap and in particular, impact on child care workers and implications for the broader workforce.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Great new paper showing that the effect of the U.S.-Israel bombing of Iran was to essentially change protests from being against the hardline Iranian government to being for it. Hard to imagine losing this war--among every dimension--even worse than the U.S. and Israel already has.
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Reposted by Ryan Cummings
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Relatedly, my SIEPR colleague @weakinstrument.bsky.social is in the New York Times today, talking about the AI equities boom and what happens if it looks like AI investments will not be profitable for a while: www.nytimes.com/2026/07/22/b...
“If investors are told, well, actually, instead of five to seven years, it’s going to be 15 to 20 years to pay off, that’s a very big difference,” said Ryan Cummings, the chief of staff for the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, who recently published an article warning about the risks of an A.I. bubble.

“Right now, the burden of proof is on the skeptics,” he added. “Once you have this slow trickle of disappointing information, then the burden starts to be on the optimists.”
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Reposted by Ryan Cummings
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
When I ran BLS, I was asked constantly about the impact of AI on jobs. It's still one of the most common questions I get. So we put together a policy brief - for policymakers, journalists, and anyone trying to sort through what is happening with AI and jobs: siepr.stanford.edu/publications...
siepr.stanford.edu
What is really happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality
Other
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Reposted by Ryan Cummings
OB Cycler @obcycler.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
45K+ bodies a year. In my city we have 3x as many fatalities from reckless driving than homicides. 1. There exists dumb traffic cameras which just take a picture of the plate & the offense and are not networked to other system. 2. Most PDs aren't even using flock cameras for traffic violations.
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Reposted by Ryan Cummings
Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Lorenzo Salgado lived here longer than I’ve been alive, married to his wife of 30 years. Worked a blue collar job building houses to put his three kids through college. A real American and the kind of man they tell you you’re supposed to be. Fascism is so perverse.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
They’re still working on that too
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Tbh you can just open instagram and search “creami recipes“ (surprisingly not as risky as it sounds) and you’ll get a lot of stuff. But tbh if you have tasty protein powder you really don’t need to add more than that+milk. and I think the ice cream taste pretty good!!
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
40g of protein in a pint? that’s it? You’re not aiming high enough Rob. I’ll throw 3 scoops of vanilla Gold Star whey in there to rip 80g+. Then some Reece’s pieces in there for deliciousness and it’s perfection.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
It’s not a great sign that 1/3rd of the Supreme Court read what is arguably the most unambiguous part of the constitution and thought “no, actually the President can invalidate this 😜😜.”
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
GS estimating that consensus estimates for hyperscaler AI capex next year of $920 billion are ***too conservative*** and instead the right number is between $1-1.4 *trillion.* We're either at the bottom of a mountain or at the top of a cliff!! Exhilarating!!!! Terrifying!!!!
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
The coding error which reverses the result had a liberal bias in favor of immigration, Jake.
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Reposted by Ryan Cummings
Evan George @evanlgeorge.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
If you don't plan to celebrate America's 250th birthday by visiting ornamental fountains in D.C. or watching UFC fighters spar outside the White House, here are some picks for the best parks and public lands from my colleagues at the @uclalawemmett.bsky.social. legal-planet.org/2026/05/28/n...
legal-planet.org
America the Beautiful — Not Beautification Projects - Legal Planet
Oh, what a time to be an American! The Drain is a weekly roundup of environmental and climate news from Legal Planet.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
~90% of the Somalis in MN are American citizens; this is the President directly calling 100,000 of our fellow countrymen and women crooks, 10 days after he announced his intention to steal $1.8 billion from taxpayers to pay him and his friends. If you're not going crazy, you've never been sane.
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Reposted by Ryan Cummings
Nandita Sharma @nsharma101.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Boycott ON! The [NAACP] urges Black athletes to withhold commitments to athletic programs in eight states over redistricting, and it also asks fans to stop buying tickets.” wapo.st/43hRsdT
wapo.st
NAACP calls for college sports boycott in states targeting Black voting power
The group urges Black athletes to withhold commitments to athletic programs in eight states over redistricting, and it also asks fans to stop buying tickets.
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Reposted by Ryan Cummings
Patrick De Haan @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
there has been talk about waiving the 18.4c/gal (gasoline) federal tax on gasoline and 24.3c/gal on diesel- these taxes also have not increased since 1993. If the fed tax on gasoline is waived, it would cost the government $2.1 billion in lost revenue per month.
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Reposted by Ryan Cummings
Timothy McBride @mcbridetd.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Opinion | Mass Deportation and American Jobs A study finds that U.S. employment falls in areas with more ICE arrests. www.wsj.com/opinion/mass...
wsj.com
Mass Deportation and American Jobs
A study finds that U.S. employment falls in areas with more ICE arrests.
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Reposted by Ryan Cummings
NPR @npr.org · 07/05/2026
The vast majority of Americans — 8 in 10 — say there should be age caps for members of Congress, as well as term limits, according to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll. n.pr/4ngwZiW
n.pr
In a new poll, Americans voice broad bipartisan support for age caps in Congress
The vast majority of Americans — 8 in 10 — say there should be age caps for members of Congress, as well as term limits, according to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Link to post: ryanmgcummings.substack.com/p/estimating...
ryanmgcummings.substack.com
Estimating the Impact of Trump's Policies on Consumers
The average household is expected to lose more than $1,100 this year due to Trump's policy choices
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Of course, these burdens aren't shared equally. We find that middle-class and low income households will bear the brunt of the costs, with the lowest 20% of HHs losing >5% of their post-tax income.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Me, @jaredb-econ.bsky.social, @nealemahoney.bsky.social, and Caleb Brobst are out with a piece today estimating the impact of 3 prominent Trump policies: OBBA refunds, tariffs, and gas prices. We estimate the combined impact of these will result in the average househould losing >$1,100 in 2026.
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Reposted by Ryan Cummings
WIRED @wired.com · 04/05/2026
Alexis Goldstein, a former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau employee, was fired this year for recording DOGE’s incursion into the agency. www.wired.com/story/a-fede...
wired.com
A Federal Worker Was Fired for Filming DOGE. Now She’s Running for Congress
Alexis Goldstein, a former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau employee, was fired this year for recording DOGE’s incursion into the agency.
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UCLA Emmett Institute @uclalawemmett.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Affordability is too often justification for lowering our ambitions to transition from fossil fuels to clean energy. Panel 2 of our recent symposium covers the complexity of the issue. Plus: a high-speed lecture on CA oil prices from @weakinstrument.bsky.social www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJzV...
youtube.com
"Can Abundance be Sustainable" Panel 2: Affordability and the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels
YouTube video by UCLA Emmett Institute
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
This isn't even remotely close to true. ~0 of those barrels were incremental, and all the sanctions waivers did was effectively allow the Iranians to sell oil to other countries at a prices *higher* than they were selling them to the Chinese, who were buying 98% of it at a discount.
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Thank you, Michael!!!
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Hahaha absolutely incredible. Im trying to stop this nonsense rhetoric!
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Reposted by Ryan Cummings
Evan George @evanlgeorge.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Repeat after Ryan: "More drilling in California would not insulate the state from price spikes, because the price of oil is determined on the global market." Louder in the back, now!
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