Sign in

iiinova is part of the Atmosphere — an open, public network where you own your identity.

Ryan Cummings

@weakinstrument.bsky.social
2K followers 579 following 262 posts

Chief of Staff @SIEPR. Economic Adviser @MITCEEPR. PhD'ing @UW. 2021-2023 WH CEA. I research energy markets during the transition and, as a treat to myself, consumer sentiment. Views my own.

PostsRepliesMedia
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
@jaredb-econ.bsky.social and I are looking at the AI labs this week. We show they're losing money in historically large amounts and fast, too; e.g. OpenAI has lost nearly 75% of the amount of money Uber cumulatively lost over 8 years. We also highlight their fragile financing structures, too.
381 8
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Mandatory.
031 3
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
1/2 Me+@jaredb-econ.bsky.social are out w/ a new piece examining how much revenue is needed to justify hyperscaler AI capex. We estimate that incremental AI revenue is currently b/n $86-$188.1B for the hyperscalers, but they need $13.1-$18.7 *trillion* over the next decade for that to pencil out.
5175 17
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
5/n: What's so worrying is that in the Biden Admin, when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and the global diesel market tightened, we were concerned that PADD 1A might actually run out of physical diesel and have to engage in rationing. By all accounts, the situation is even worse now.
2987 98
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
4/n: This matters much more for PADD 1A than anywhere else in the country because in New England, diesel isn't just for industrial uses; *half* of homes in Maine use diesel (No 2. fuel oil) for heating. Over a million people in MA use it for home heating.
310512 105
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
3/n: Because the U.S. exports so much diesel, banning those exports would shrink global supply, raising global prices and therefore the imported price that PADD 1A pays. This also couldn't be happening at a worse time; diesel inventories in PADD 1A are lower than anypoint in the past 10 years.
11009 100
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
2/n: Banning diesel exports would *temporarily* provide some price relief for most of the country, but not for New England. Because pipelines don't run that far north, PADD 1A has to import large amounts of diesel, which means it's competing with a (structurally short diesel) Europe for barrels
213020 130
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Great new paper showing that the effect of the U.S.-Israel bombing of Iran was to essentially change protests from being against the hardline Iranian government to being for it. Hard to imagine losing this war--among every dimension--even worse than the U.S. and Israel already has.
031 3
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
It’s not a great sign that 1/3rd of the Supreme Court read what is arguably the most unambiguous part of the constitution and thought “no, actually the President can invalidate this 😜😜.”
010 1
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
GS estimating that consensus estimates for hyperscaler AI capex next year of $920 billion are ***too conservative*** and instead the right number is between $1-1.4 *trillion.* We're either at the bottom of a mountain or at the top of a cliff!! Exhilarating!!!! Terrifying!!!!
011 1
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Of course, these burdens aren't shared equally. We find that middle-class and low income households will bear the brunt of the costs, with the lowest 20% of HHs losing >5% of their post-tax income.
100 1
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Me, @jaredb-econ.bsky.social, @nealemahoney.bsky.social, and Caleb Brobst are out with a piece today estimating the impact of 3 prominent Trump policies: OBBA refunds, tariffs, and gas prices. We estimate the combined impact of these will result in the average househould losing >$1,100 in 2026.
153 5
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
This isn't even remotely close to true. ~0 of those barrels were incremental, and all the sanctions waivers did was effectively allow the Iranians to sell oil to other countries at a prices *higher* than they were selling them to the Chinese, who were buying 98% of it at a discount.
041 4
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
Great example of this is monetary policy. Nearly 2/3rds of CEOs in a survey wouldn't even venture a guess as to what the Fed's inflation target was (something that directly impacts their business, btw!) and of those who guessed, only 20% could correctly identify it. www.nber.org/papers/w28836
76210 62
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
032 3
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
However much you think we should be funding cancer research, I can guarantee you it's not enough. The economic benefit of getting rid of it would be $197 ***TRILLION*** over 35 years. We should easily be 100Xing federal funding of this research, and instead we're cutting it.
030 3
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
What should be particularly worrisome for Trump: sentiment declined this month the most for *Republicans.* Even more so over a 6-month window. He's also completely wiped out the post-election enthusiasm among Rs; sentiment for Ds and Is is down sharply. (w/ @nealemahoney.bsky.social)
072 7
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
Updating this chart from me and @nealemahoney.bsky.social and adding a new one. Increases in the gas prices since Iran conflict have been unrelenting (+$1.14/gal since Feb 28), and we have now witnessed the biggest 30 day increase in gasoline prices on record (data going back to 1993).
041 4
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Updated from me and @nealemahoney.bsky.social. After slowing down last week, the surge in gasoline prices is starting to run away from the spike observed after Russia/Ukraine. 90 cents/gallon increase in just 19 days, or ~5c/day. >$375M extra consumers are paying every day than before the war.
030 3
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
End/ Of course, these are estimates. If the Strait of Hormuz opens back up quickly, then this will likely lower crude prices. But the longer the Strait remains closed, the more consumers pay, and the higher these numbers get.
000 0
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
4/ We then estimate the total extra amount consumers will pay because of the conflict. For the average HH, that’s $740 over the course of the year, which is roughly equal to the most aggressive estimate of larger refunds resulting from Trump's tax cut law (OBBA).
110 1
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
3/ But that’s changed dramatically; even if crude oil falls into the 70s in the later part of the year, we estimate that gas prices will peak around $4.40/gallon by May.
100 1
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
If this scenario happens, this would drive national average gas prices well above $5.00/gallon—likely close to $5.25-$5.50. It would shatter the record set in the summer of 2022. What’s extraordinary is unlike then, this would be entirely out of the President’s own choosing.
011 1
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
3/3 But right now, we're seeing crude increase over the past 5 days by $7.48/bbl and gasoline prices increase by $0.22/gal. That means we're seeing magnitudes ~20% greater than what we would expect from historical relationships in 1/6 the time.
5839 83
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
2/3: The academic literature typically finds that when crude oil increases by $10/barrel, it 4 weeks for the full effect to show up at the pump, with half of the effect showing up after 2 weeks. Historical relationships estimate that the full effect is around ~$0.25/gallon.
2879 87
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
1/3: Here's what wild about gas prices right now. The past two days have seen the largest increase in gas prices ($0.22/gallon) since 2005, making it one of the fastest increases ever. What's suprising about this is not only the magnitude, but the speed of the passthrough.
31389147 389
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
I'm in the NYT today w/ @jaredb-econ.bsky.social We expand upon a point raised by @weisenthal.bsky.social previously made--part of crypto's decline is because the industry has been using the Biden Regulatory Boogeyman as an excuse for lack of adoption. With Trump in office, that excuse doesn't hold.
290 9
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
If the Democratic Party folds on its demand that members of Congress and the Administration cannot profit off of crypto (especially right after we've learned the current President has taken billions in bribes through crypto) b/c the crypto lobby has a lot of money, it should cease existing entirely.
142 4
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
A huge congrats to the Harvard Endowment, who in Q3 2025 bought at the top of the market to nearly quadruple its Bitcoin holdings, only to watch that position get absolutely destroyed, losing over $200 million in less than 6 months. Another big win for active management!
0144 14
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
As usual, the current Administration is laser-focused on pressing issues, both at home and abroad, that keep Americans up at night. Very glad to see this important policy process elevated to the level where the highest ranking cabinet official personally weights in on it 👏👏👏
000 0
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 18/10/2025
DISTURBING: I went out in Palo Alto to perform a tactical threat analysis on behalf of the Supreme Intergalactic Commander of Warfare Hegseth, and found the median antifa member is 67 and drives a luxury German car.
010 1
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
End/ While we can say what isn’t causing the gap, we don’t have a good answer for what is causing it. For a more informed take, we asked our friend @draliceevans.bsky.social what she thought. We think examining this more deeply is a ripe area for future research.
000 0
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
4/ We then use individual-level data to see if demographic factors can help explain the gap. Surprisingly, we find that controls such as education, income, age, and political party explain little (<20%) of the gap.
100 1
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
3/ Interestingly, the gap—in both level and proportional terms—increases when a R is president. This largely reflects the fact that men are more likely to be Rs, and Rs are more optimistic when there is an R president.
100 1
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
2/ In what we call “The Gender Optimism Gap,” we use UMich Consumer Sentiment data and (consistent with others) find since the 70s (as far back as the data go), women are persistently less optimistic than men about the economy.
100 1
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
There's a lot of bad happening in the world today. So take some time to read something good--dare I say, great!--from @jaredb-econ.bsky.social and @nealemahoney.bsky.social who boil down the econ of "affordability" to a simple, three-legged framework. Good economics, good policy!
054 5
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
If this is true, this is the largest public corruption scandal in the history of the United States and it's not even close. It would amount to a **$2B** bribe to the President; the next closest scandal in terms of $ would be Teapot Dome, a measly ~$10M in today's $s www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/u...
31915 19
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
What the crypto industry wants is simple: insurance--paid for taxpayers--that essentially provides a price floor for their useless assets. It's not subtle, and it's not complicated.
021 2
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 13/07/2025
Was great chatting with @emmettlindner.bsky.social about how if Trump follows through on his tariffs against Brazil, coffee drinkers in the US should expect to see the price of a cup increase by about $0.25 within a couple months. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/13/b...
020 2
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
5/ The piece ends with Mische giving policy recommendations without any sort of sober cost-benefit analysis of what he’s proposing. For example, he proposes the state give the refiners an operating subsidy. This is a very, very bad idea!
142 4
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
4/ Then there’s the factual errors, such as the claim that CA has never faced a 20% reduction in gasoline supply. This is, um, not true! Refining capacity shrank by ~1/3rd b/n 1982 and 1995, while demand increased by 25%!
132 3
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
3/ Mische (the author) gives very limited details about the “models” he uses to get his results (which is not standard scholarly practice). The few details he does give, however, reveals extreme assumptions that are not grounded in any theory or empirics.
232 3
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
2/ The post is by a consultant and Professor of Practice at USC Marshall. The main, and crucial, conceptual error the post makes is not understanding that because CA is already a net importer of gasoline, the margin at which prices are set doesn’t change with additional refinery closures.
132 3
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 22/06/2025
The news today has got me thinking about all the ways Iran away from my feelings and didn’t want to be vulnerable so I hid my emotional enrichment materials deep inside a mountain of loneliness and not even the largest love bombs you were capable of dropping got through. You don’t have to respond.
1201 20
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
What an unnecessary and ill-informed forecast. The concern is much, much less with global *supply* of oil than it is with the *transportation* of it. During Russia/Ukraine, ~0 supply went offline. But it took a while to rescramble the 3mbpd that Russia was providing to the market!
100 1
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 14/06/2025
Im at the No Kings protest in SF and there’s more American flags here than a NASCAR rally
060 6
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
Work requirements cost more money than they save, but you can tell in OBBB that the real Republican goal is to just kick people off their health insurance because they're closing every single Job Corps facility in the country, which helps people get training for entry-level jobs.
150 5
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
Californians net taxes to to the Federal Government was greater than every other state in the country except for NY. So the Trump Administration wants to still collect money from California, but not give anything back.
030 3
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
@nealemahoney.bsky.social I wrote a piece looking at the consequences of Trump's tariffs getting struck down. If the ruling holds, they'll have to pay $20B back to importers, which would be a ~$110 transfer from every American household to firm profits. nealemahoney.substack.com/p/if-it-stic...
043 4
Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
To add to Neale's analysis on Medicaid, the degree to which House Rs are willing to stick it to their own constituents to give rich people a tax cut is stunning. Here's what clean-energy investment+jobs (that the House bill is trying to kill!) looks like across CDs. Rs benefit 4X as much as Ds!
1115 11