Sign in

Vincent Geloso

@vincentgeloso.bsky.social
377 followers 21 following 58 posts

Assistant professor of economics at GMU. Québécois economic historian, LSE-trained, TTU-proud, GMU-blood. See my published papers at www.vincentgeloso.com

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The bond yield story just keeps getting starker.
Line chart titled "10-Year Treasury Note" showing the yield on the 10-year Treasury note from late 2025 through September 2026. Treasury yields surged dramatically to 5.29 percent on September 29, 2026, the highest level in the period shown. This represents a sharp 130 basis point increase from the October 2025 low of 3.96 percent and a particularly rapid 45 basis point climb over just the final month. After trading mostly between 4.00 and 4.75 percent for nearly a year, yields broke decisively above 5.00 percent in September 2026, signaling a fundamental shift in borrowing costs and market conditions.
50529145
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
Marcus Nunes @marcusnunes47.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Chilean Democracy Died of Inflation, Not Industrial Policy marcusnunes.substack.com/p/chilean-de... @vincentgeloso.bsky.social
marcusnunes.substack.com
Chilean Democracy Died of Inflation, Not Industrial Policy
Vincent Geloso has written a piece warning that the American left and right are competing to control the economy, and that this reproduces the dynamic which hollowed out Chilean democracy before 1973.
011
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
Jason Kuznicki @jkuznicki.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Why do states nationalize? Ideological reasons can explain it, but they convince the ideologues best. In a new essay for @liberalism.org, Vincent Geloso shows evidence that nationalizing lets states redistribute patronage in a wide array of neighboring industries. Nationalizing is about patronage.
liberalism.org
Why States Nationalize
Economists have many answers, but the truth may be larger than they know.
044
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
Liberalism.org @liberalism.org · 11/09/2026
Vincent Geloso uses America's lighthouses as a case study in how nationalizing industries acts as a redistributive engine for rent-seeking interests. www.liberalism.org/p/why-states...
liberalism.org
Why States Nationalize
Economists have many answers, but the truth may be larger than they know.
056
Vincent Geloso @vincentgeloso.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
open.substack.com/pub/vgeloso/...
open.substack.com
No, universal childcare did not "probably" pay for itself in Quebec
Its because the econometric strategy forgets that the "Rest of Canada" can be multiple things.
001
Vincent Geloso @vincentgeloso.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
open.substack.com/pub/vgeloso/...
open.substack.com
Sugarcane Yields, Biological Innovations and Historical Racism in Louisiana, 1911 to 2008
I just fell on this paper in Crop Science (yes, I know, I read weird stuff) showing sugarcane yields since 1911.
000
Vincent Geloso @vincentgeloso.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
A comment on institutions and carbon sinks open.substack.com/pub/vgeloso/...
open.substack.com
Carbon sinks and economic freedom
For an invited contribution, I was writing up on my recent works on environmental economics (as I am gradually heading into environmental history as well as economic history).
000
Vincent Geloso @vincentgeloso.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
The much vaunted study regarding welfare magnets from immigration misestimated the elasticity of welfare benefits to immigration by a factor of 4 at least. Migrants dont decide much on basis of welfare payments. vgeloso.substack.com/p/welfare-ma... Cc. @mclem.org
vgeloso.substack.com
Welfare Magnet and Immigration in Denmark
An AER:Insights paper shows a smaller elasticity once replicated
0197
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 26/06/2026
🗣️ Published today in @aeajournals.bsky.social. Ethan Lewis and I use a visa lottery, as a nationwide randomized experiment, to test the effects of foreign labor on US firms and workers. doi.org/10.1257/app.... A concise summary from @nber.org —> www.nber.org/digest/20221...
Abstract: 
US firms hiring foreign workers in low-skill nonfarm jobs face a binding quota on the "H-2B" visa, allocated in part through a randomized lottery. We evaluate the quota's marginal impact using the lottery, a novel firm survey, and a pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously employing more H-2B workers in low-skill jobs increase production (elasticity 0.20–0.22), investment (1.5–2.1), and profits (0.15). The elasticity of substitution between H-2B and US workers is very low (0.8–2.2). Thus, the effect on US employment is zero or positive overall, and positive in rural areas. Forensic analysis suggests similarly low substitutability of black-market labor.
116968
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
The Wall Street Journal @wsj.com · 06/06/2026
Demand for labor is back. Some economists speculate that immigrants are rejoining the workforce, boosting the labor supply. on.wsj.com/4uDfPhD
on.wsj.com
Economists had written off the great American job-creation machine. Now, it’s revving back to life.
Demand for labor is back. Some economists speculate that immigrants are rejoining the workforce, boosting labor supply.
474
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
Gelman absolutely on fire on the blog statmodeling.substack.com/p/13-aspects...
69521
Vincent Geloso @vincentgeloso.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
Merci pour le logement sans frais dans votre si menu espace
010
Vincent Geloso @vincentgeloso.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
Working paper with Patrick Crawford now out
001
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
Patrick Crawford @pjcrawford.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
🧵 What caused the 1837–38 rebellions in Canada? Was it nationalism? Poverty? Institutions? We (@vincentgeloso.bsky.social and I) argue: it was the newspapers. And the result flips how we think about rebellions [cross-post from his Twitter/X]
A screenshot that reads:

Did Newspaper Competition Promote Rebellion? The case of the 1837-38 Rebellions in Quebec*
Patrick Crawford
Vincent Geloso
Abstract
We investigate the relationship between media competitiveness and political mobilization during the Quebec Rebellion of 1837-38. We argue that the rebellion was shaped by newspaper coordination of political action. Drawing on a new spatial dataset of newspaper agents, we test whether local media competitiveness predicts the intensity of rebel mobiliza-tion, independent of the partisan alignment of the press. The effect is magnified in areas where seigneurial (i.e., feudal) tenure persisted, suggesting a complementarity between institutionally concentrated grievance and competitive press exposure. Adding newly created human capital controls-school enrollment and literacy does not attenuate the competition effect. Globally, media competition transformed latent discontent into active participa-ion in the conflict. These results offer insight into the economics of rebellions and uprisings.
Keywords: Rebellions, Media, Newspapers, Competition, Quebec, Canada
JEL Codes: N41, D74, D83, L82, R12
162
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
David E. Shellenberger @deshellenberger.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Vincent Geloso and Pradyot Sharma: "The question is not what we do about technological change displacing jobs, but rather what existing barriers prevent workers from transitioning to new jobs." www.fraserinstitute.org/commentary/d...
fraserinstitute.org
Don’t fear AI—fear government regulations
If new technologies increase productivity in the economy, they can help workers earn higher wages.
011
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
An incredibly fascinating new paper by Casey Pender and Vincent Geloso (@VincentGeloso) on what we can learn from the most significant period of Canadian economic convergence with the U.S. Read it here: www.policyschool.ca/wp-content/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli @policy_school
072
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
Cato Institute @cato.org · 15/02/2026
COVID-19 slowed—but didn’t stop—the decline in global inequality. The Inequality of Human Progress Index shows widely shared gains in health, education, and living standards long term. Chelsea Follett and Vincent Geloso explain how markets softened the pandemic shock. ow.ly/VS0f50Ycztb
073
Vincent Geloso @vincentgeloso.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Contrasting Environmental Sociology and Environmental Economics Research open.substack.com/pub/matthewe...
open.substack.com
Contrasting Environmental Sociology and Environmental Economics Research
In 2025, the Environmental Sociology Journal published an empirical paper that is directly related to my research.
021
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
Clay Collins @claycollins.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
A little late on the announcement, but I’m proud to announce my paper “Emotional Cues, Election Outcomes, and Intimate Partner Violence” has been published in the Eastern Economic Journal. Link below: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Client Challenge
164
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
Random paper from RePEc @random-repec-paper.bsky.social · 27/12/2025
Postbellum electoral politics in California and the genesis of the Chinese exclusion act of 1882 by Vincent Geloso & Linan Peng (2024)
ideas.repec.org
IDEAS/RePEc link
to RePEc:kap:ejlwec:v:57:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s10657-024-09799-8
001
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 26/10/2025
US tariffs are not paid by other countries. That’s a lie through gritted teeth. US tariffs are taxes on Americans. They are paid by Americans who buy anything made with any ingredient from abroad. (All of us.) Cost: $2,600–3,100/yr. for the average American. @kclausing.bsky.social of @piie.com —>
cepr.org
The aftermath of tariffs
The tariff spree during the first 100 days of the current US administration created bewildering economic policy chaos. The first 100 days also marked the largest tax increase in more than a generation. This column, taken from a CEPR book on the economic consequences of the second Trump administration, discusses the consequences of the tariffs for the US economy and the larger world community.
03011
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
CJAD 800 Montreal @cjad800.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
How does Quebec compare to other provinces in terms of social mobility? The Montreal Economic Institute's @vincentgeloso.bsky.social shares the results of a recent study with @eliasmakos.bsky.social:
iheart.com
How does Quebec compare to other provinces in terms of social mobility? - The Elias Makos Show | iHeart
<p>Vincent Geloso, Senior Economist at the The Montreal Economic Institute, and co-author of a recent study on social mobility</p>
001
Vincent Geloso @vincentgeloso.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
Now forthcoming at University of Chicago Press: my book on how America between 1870 and 1940 had the world’s first massive and egalitarian growth episode — it was the lean and mean egalitarian growth machine
031
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
Cédric Chambru @cedricchambru.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
📢 New initiative: we are launching a monthly virtual seminar in French Economic History to share and discuss the latest research in the field! 🌍 Open to all interested in #econhist. 👉 Info & updates: sites.google.com/view/vwfhe/h...
sites.google.com
VWFHE
22410
Vincent Geloso @vincentgeloso.bsky.social · 18/08/2025
In liberal democracies, you can trust agencies like the BLS to be non-partisan. Not out of virtue, but bureaucratic self-interest
100
Vincent Geloso @vincentgeloso.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
Tellement pleutres! L’exemple à suivre c’est Franz Boas. Boas fut l’un des rares, à son époque, à s’attaquer frontalement aux thèses du racisme “scientifique”, démontant leurs prétentions pseudo-savantes alors que peu osaient le faire. Je veux être Boas. Vous voulez juste ne pas faire d’efforts!
000
Vincent Geloso @vincentgeloso.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
Pleutres! Raisonnement faiblard de pleutres incapables de voir que leur paresse nourrit fascisme, extrémisme et illibéralisme. Débattre, c’est désarmer l’adversaire et immuniser contre le pire. Refuser ce combat, c’est avouer implicitement une faiblesse et encourager les périls. Pleutres!
110
Vincent Geloso @vincentgeloso.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
Ces lâches se cachent derrière un pseudonyme pour défendre la liberté de mouvement et les droits des immigrants. Depuis 2018, je défends sans cesse celles-ci publiquement (voir images) et je reçois du vitriol sans cesse. Ces pleutres et lâches sont ceux qui alimentent les ennemis des immigrants
000
Vincent Geloso @vincentgeloso.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
Ces clowns ne savent pas que je rejette la pertinence du concept de compatibilité culturelle. Cependant, ils ne saisissent pas que c’est l’argument le PLUS IMPORTANT auquel il faut répondre. C’est pourquoi il faut faire l’effort de répondre. Seuls les pleutres refusent l’effort intellectuel…
000
Vincent Geloso @vincentgeloso.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
Il faut vraiment vivre dans le délire pour penser cela. ACD,c’est la personne à qui il faut répondre pour défendre l’immigration. C’est le steelman qu’il faut débattre. Mais ici on a les faiblards intellectuels qui pensent qu’on gagne la bataille des idées en choisissant d’affronter des nains.
000
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
CJAD 800 Montreal @cjad800.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
Should Canada Post go private? Montreal Economic Institute's @vincentgeloso.bsky.social joined @eliasmakos.bsky.social:
iheart.com
Building the case to privatize Canada Post - The Elias Makos Show | iHeart
<p>Vincent Geloso, senior economist at the Montreal Economic Institute and co-author of a new report&nbsp;</p> <p>Image: THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</p>
122
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
CJAD 800 Montreal @cjad800.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
@vincentgeloso.bsky.social What is artificial intelligence 'slop' and why is it ruining your internet feeds? @mitchjoel.bsky.social talks to @eliasmakos.bsky.social:
iheart.com
What is artificial intelligence 'slop' and why is it ruining your internet feeds? - The Elias Makos Show
022
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
Patrick Fitzsimmons @patrubenfitz.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
The paperwork has been filed and I am happy to announce that my dissertation has been successfully defended! Thankful to my fantastic advisor @markkoyama.bsky.social and amazing committee @jonathanschulz.bsky.social @vincentgeloso.bsky.social @ndjohnson.bsky.social
051
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
Patrick Fitzsimmons @patrubenfitz.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
I am happy to share that this is now published!
tandfonline.com
Did the Great Leveling begin after 1921?
The U-Curve of income inequality in the United States is a longstanding stylised fact in economic history. The ‘Great Leveling’ that led to the trough that lasted from the 1940s to the early 1980s ...
164
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
Patrick Fitzsimmons @patrubenfitz.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
Co-authored with @vincentgeloso.bsky.social and @jrhall1066.bsky.social
011
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 10/03/2025
In a 1932 essay, the economist Percy Wells Bidwell discussed the role of tariffs in fueling the Great Depression: “if protective tariffs were in reality a cure for business crises, they would long ago have had a chance to demonstrate their efficacy.”
foreignaffairs.com
Trade, Tariffs, the Depression
Nothing in recent history has so strikingly emphasized the need for international coöperation in the economic field as the business depression which now for over two years has weighed down upon the wo...
25121
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 04/03/2025
Tomorrow the US Administration imposes the heaviest taxes since the 1930s on Americans who buy imports. In this new brief from @ucsandiego.bsky.social, leading economists Evenett & Muendler estimate the harm to US workers in all 50 states—> econweb.ucsd.edu/muendler/dow... | cc @piie.com
49446
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
CEPH @cephie.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
🎉Today's the day! See you at @tlrhub.bsky.social for the Alice Murray Distinguished Scholar Lecture by Prof. Jane Humphries ceph.ie/events/27-02... @tcdeconomics.bsky.social @tcdssp.bsky.social @quceh.bsky.social @ox.ac.uk #Economics #EconomicHistory #NSRPproject
064
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
David Brady @davebrady72.bsky.social · 22/02/2025
Say you’ve got very good causal IDENTIFICATION. Can you say you have causality, can make a causal general claim, and can say what “THE causal effect” is? NO We explain why in new article at Journal of Causal Inference. www.degruyter.com/document/doi...
degruyter.com
The necessity of construct and external validity for deductive causal inference
The Credibility Revolution advances internally valid research designs intended to identify causal effects from quantitative data. The ensuing emphasis on internal validity, however, has enabled a negl...
1622668
Vincent Geloso @vincentgeloso.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
No particular reason
020
Vincent Geloso @vincentgeloso.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
Postes Canada peine à s’adapter : baisse des lettres, hausse des colis. Il est temps que le fédéral envisage la privatisation et la concurrence libre pour moderniser le service postal face aux nouvelles réalités. www.lapresse.ca/affaires/ent...
lapresse.ca
Commission d’enquête | Postes Canada est « au bord du précipice », dit sa direction
Postes Canada est « au bord du précipice » et sa situation « s’aggrave de jour en jour », a prévenu sa direction, lundi, à l’occasion du début des audiences de la commission d’enquête sur ses relation...
010
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
Chris Freiman @chrisfreiman.bsky.social · 25/01/2025
051
Vincent Geloso @vincentgeloso.bsky.social · 25/01/2025
011
Vincent Geloso @vincentgeloso.bsky.social · 25/01/2025
Birthright citizenship faciliates assimilation as my buddy Alex Nowrasteh points our using papers that rely on German natural experiments
011
Vincent Geloso @vincentgeloso.bsky.social · 25/01/2025
The best book on the dark side of the econ profession is this by Tom Leonard
020
Vincent Geloso @vincentgeloso.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
New working paper with Justin Callais, Gary Wagner and Alicia Plemmons on entrepreneurship and migration within the USA papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
010
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
Chris Freiman @chrisfreiman.bsky.social · 30/12/2024
In honor of Jimmy Carter, here’s a reminder that airline deregulation is good
0266
Reposted by Vincent Geloso
Chris Freiman @chrisfreiman.bsky.social · 04/01/2025
Conservative anti-immigration arguments about protecting the jobs of American workers are at odds with their defenses of school choice that reject the idea that public school teachers should be shielded from competition
041
Vincent Geloso @vincentgeloso.bsky.social · 01/01/2025
Its also worth noting that while immigrants do commit more crimes than natives in some countries like France, the United States has been an exception since 1870 (recent paper shows they commit as many or fewer crime depending on the year)
110