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Trevor Tombe

@trevortombe.bsky.social
9.1K followers 130 following 389 posts

Professor of Economics, University of Calgary | Alum U of T & SFU | Inflation, carbon taxes, equalization, internal trade, R, and more! | 💻 📊 📝 🍻

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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 8h
Alberta suspended its gas tax today, and the federal government has extended its. Do consumers actually benefit? My latest for @TheHubCanada explores the evidence: thehub.ca/2026/09/30/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
thehub.ca
Yes, government cuts to fuel taxes really do lower your price at the pump
Provincial fuel tax cuts: real relief for drivers, or a windfall for gas retailers? Trevor Tombe crunches the numbers to find out.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The University of Calgary's @policy_school completed an independent analysis of the potential economic and fiscal consequences of Alberta separating from Canada. All of the results and documentation are available here: open.alberta.ca/publication... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
BIG tax change announced today. A “productivity mega deduction” broadens how much is eligible for immediate expensing. That cuts the effective tax on new investment in half. More to do, but this is big. Details: www.canada.ca/en/departme... #cdnecon
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Job opportunity for economics faculty! 🚨 The University of Calgary’s Department of Economics is seeking applications for an Assistant/Associate Professor position, with a focus on industrial organisation or regulatory econ. Details here: www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing...
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Whatever one thinks about the merits of retaliatory tariffs, there are real costs to consider, especially on those Canadians least able to bear them. In my latest for @TheHubCanada, I estimate the effect on prices and households: thehub.ca/2026/09/01/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
thehub.ca
A $4 billion hit: What Carney’s tariff retaliation could cost Canadian consumers
Families with kids face costs of roughly $250 per year from the tariffs
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
In non-trade-dispute news, AB's fiscal update is out! 🎉 From a $9.4b deficit projected back in February's budget, to a $2b surplus (based on avg $73.5/bbl oil) now. May still understate things given where markets are now. Documents: www.alberta.ca/budget-docu... #cdnecon
alberta.ca
Budget documents
Detailed Alberta government budget documents, quarterly updates and economic statements, organized by fiscal year.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
It was a great pleasure to join @thebigstory.bsky.social to talk trade!
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Reposted by Trevor Tombe
The Big Story @thebigstory.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
What will the #Canada-US trade war cost you? Today on The Big Story, we get into the latest round of #tariffs imposed by both the US and Canada with @trevortombe.bsky.social, professor and Director of Fiscal and Economic Policy at @ucalgary.bsky.social. Listen here: lnk.to/bigstory
Greyscale photo of Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne speaking at a podium with red circle and eye in the corner. Champagne recently announced that Canada will be providing up to $7.5B in tariff relief for Canadian workers and businesses
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Where do Canadian retaliatory tariffs land? Based on all affected products on Sept 8 (including pre-existing tariffs), here's the value of exports times tariff rates as a share of each state's GDP. #cdnecon #cdnpoli
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
The full list of 893 items subject to retaliatory tariffs on September 8 is available here: www.canada.ca/en/departme...
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Tariff retaliation should try to do three things: hurt U.S. producers, be politically well targeted, and limit damage at home. The problem? We can't to do all three. My latest for @TheHubCanada on Canada’s tariff retaliation trilemma: thehub.ca/2026/08/24/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
thehub.ca
Which American goods should Carney tariff? Breaking down Canada’s retaliation trilemma
Tariffing American goods sounds simple until you realize Canada can't maximize pain, minimize self-harm, and stay WTO-compliant all at once. Here's the trilemma Carney faces.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Preliminary estimates: Canada's "dollar for dollar" retaliation would push its average tariff on imports from the U.S. to levels last seen in the late 1970s. And would be the sharpest rise in nearly a century. #cdnecon
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
How many jobs are (were?) at risk from the U.S. 50% tariffs? New estimates for @TheHubCanada show impact could be broad, even where tariffs didn't hit directly (like AB). thehub.ca/2026/08/20/... Useful context, even if agreement reached. #cdnecon #cdnpoli
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Canada is gradually returning to normal rates of growth, but along a permanently lower path. Currently ~$60b below the path we were previously on. My latest for @TheHubCanada on the latest data: thehub.ca/2026/08/12/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Trump’s tariffs are not an attack on Canada’s economy. They’re an attack on America’s. We should respond accordingly. My latest for @TheHubCanada on Canada’s best response: thehub.ca/2026/07/30/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
thehub.ca
Doug Ford is wrong: Why doing nothing at all is Canada’s best response to Trump’s tariffs
Everyone assumes Canada must hit back against Trump's tariffs. An economist argues the math says otherwise — retaliation could cost Canadians more than it costs the US.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
There's a lot of variation across #cdnecon in exposure to the new 50% U.S. tariffs (on August 19). Here's a preliminary estimate of the share of exports affected (based on HS6, so a slight over-estimate). BC/ON/QC most exposed. Others far less so.
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Reposted by Trevor Tombe
Tammy Schirle 🇨🇦 @tammyschirle.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
I appreciate @trevortombe.bsky.social's POV, but... I tend to take a different starting point on some of this - First, he's right that mechanically, the overall (age 15+) participation rate drops when the pop ages. But it's important to point out that within age groups, people are working more
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Canada’s population is aging quickly. But that doesn’t have to slow us down. My latest for @TheHubCanada on some cool new research and what it may mean for Canada: thehub.ca/2026/07/16/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
thehub.ca
Population aging doesn’t have to slow us down
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Some argue Canada should abandon equalization altogether, but the better path is to renew the entire system of transfers. My latest for @MLInstitute offers a simple, more transparent, more growth-oriented, and more sustainable option: macdonaldlaurier.ca/rebalancing... #cdnpoli #cdnecon
macdonaldlaurier.ca
Rebalancing Canada: A two-pillar reform of equalization and federal transfers | Macdonald-Laurier Institute
Some critics argue Canada should abandon equalization or federal transfers altogether, but the better path forward is to renew the system with a simpler structure.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
While oil prices have returned to their pre-war levels, Alberta's fiscal situation remains dramatically improved. Accumulated surpluses since April means lower oil prices are needed to balance. AB is on track for modest surplus. A +$10B improvement.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Roughly, there’s ~$800 billion in taxpayer-funded education sitting outside the province that paid for it. With Alberta and B.C. the largest beneficiaries. My latest for @TheHubCanada on the largest financial transfer nobody talks about: thehub.ca/2026/07/02/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
thehub.ca
The biggest financial transfer in Canada that nobody talks about
Why Alberta and B.C. are Canada’s biggest brain drain beneficiaries
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
The preliminary labour productivity statistics for 2025 are out: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... PEI leads at 4.9%, with AB and NL next up at 3.8%. National growth was 0.7%. #cdnecon
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
From this morning's inflation report, Canada's overall rate is up 0.9% compared to start of year. That's half the increase seen in the U.S. Why the difference? I explain in a piece for @TheHubCanada here (from last Thurs): thehub.ca/2026/06/19/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Canada's inflation rate rose to 3.2% in May. What's behind the surge? Oil prices. That's it. Most other important components are pulling down the overall rate. #cdnecon 🧵
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Why is Canada’s inflation rate so much lower than the U.S.? It’s not because our prices are rising more slowly. My latest for @TheHubCanada explains: thehub.ca/2026/06/19/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
thehub.ca
Canada’s inflation situation looks better than America’s—it’s not. Here’s why
Canada's inflation looks better than America's. But strip away the methodology differences and the picture changes entirely. Here's what the numbers actually show.
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Bank of Canada @bankofcanada.ca · 12/06/2026
ICYMI: Economic weakness combined with rising inflation is a dilemma for monetary policy. To balance these risks, we've held our policy rate at 2.25%. We are committed to maintaining Canadians’ confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. 👉 bit.ly/49ZE0z7
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
The more freely Canadians can live, work, and do business across the country, the more the value of the federation shows up in ordinary life. My latest on how doubling down on Canada's economic union might help with separatism: thehub.ca/2026/06/04/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
thehub.ca
How to actually fight separatism: Deepen the economic ties between provinces
The case for national unity isn’t about dividing the pie
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Jared Wesley @jaredwesley.ca · 25/05/2026
The stakes in this referendum are too high to sit it out. We need to build a solid case, not just for staying put, but for a stronger Alberta within a better Canada. That's why I'm joining other prominent conservatives in making the case for Alberta to lead, not leave. www.leadnotleave.ca
leadnotleave.ca
Lead. Not Leave.
A policy initiative for Albertans committed to a strong Alberta within a united Canada.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
The status quo is not desirable, but a referendum on separation is even less so. Alberta must lead, not leave. www.readtheline.ca/p/alberta-m... #cdnpoli #ableg
readtheline.ca
Alberta must lead, not leave
Welcome to Lead Not Leave: a team of academics, policy wonks, political activists and journalists forging a practical path forward for our fellow frustrated federalists.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
“Opinions among Albertans overall about their province’s treatment in the Canadian federation have been steadily improving” but there has been also been “a steady polarization of opinions.” Check out the latest Confederation of Tomorrow report: environicsinstitute.org/spotlight-o... #cdnpoli
environicsinstitute.org
Spotlight on Alberta 2026 | Environics Institute for Survey Research
While Albertans have become less likely to express feelings of “Western alienation,” there has been a steady polarization of opinions in the province.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
For all the noise around Western alienation, separatist petitions, and fed-prov fights, Albertans and other Canadians agree on more than they disagree. My latest with Brooks Decillia for @TheHubCanada with new survey results: thehub.ca/2026/04/30/... #cdnpoli #cdnecon
thehub.ca
Albertans and other Canadians are not as divided as it may seem, new survey data shows
Think Albertans and other Canadians are worlds apart? New data suggests the divisions aren't as deep as you think. The results may surprise you.
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Jared Wesley @jaredwesley.ca · 24/04/2026
My latest on how we need to stop treating the public square like a political science seminar. We need to return to the basics -- three cardinal rules -- if we are to stall the decline of liberal democracy. edmontonjournal.com/opinion/colu...
edmontonjournal.com
Opinion: Are the 3 basic rules of democracy being broken in Alberta?
If we stop asking these questions, democracy may further erode to the point that it's too late to do anything about it.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
We’re hiring a Manager for Canada’s Productivity Initiative at @UCaglary! It's a great opportunity to help build a national partnership connecting universities, governments, and policy leaders. If it sounds like a fit, take a look and please share: careers.ucalgary.ca/jobs/176253...
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Our governments’ finances face a growth problem, not just a budget problem. My latest for @TheHubCanada on why productivity changes everything: thehub.ca/2026/04/01/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
thehub.ca
The fiscal challenge Canada’s provinces don’t want you to talk about
Every single province is now running a deficit
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Oil prices (WTI) ended March just under $102/bbl. Adjusted for inflation, that's the second largest monthly $/bbl increase ever and the third largest % increase. #cdnecon
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Alberta's fiscal year ends in two weeks. With oil prices up, the government's deficit forecast of $4.1 billion is now on track for roughly half that. #ableg
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
What do rising oil prices mean for Canadian households? In my latest for @TheHubCanada, I estimate the costs for gasoline, energy, and (just as importantly!) all other goods and services throughout the supply chain. Overall, about $1,000/yr/household. thehub.ca/2026/03/18/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Have Alberta's finances gone off the rails? My latest for @TheHubCanada on the province's latest budget. thehub.ca/2026/03/03/... #ableg #cdnpoli #cdnecon
thehub.ca
Have Alberta’s finances gone off the rails?
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
So excited to welcome Doug Irwin (@D_A_Irwin) to Calgary in a few weeks for the 2026 Distinguished Lecture in Economics! It will be a must-hear talk on all the trade policy changes happening today. 🤓 All are welcome! Details here: events.ucalgary.ca/arts/econom... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
events.ucalgary.ca
THE DR. FRANK ANTON DISTINGUISHED LECTURE IN ECONOMICS - 2026
Is it Possible to Understand Trump’s Trade Policy?
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
The hidden costs of political uncertainty are high. We can see that in Canada's job market today. And there's a lesson for those who view Alberta separatism as a costless protest vote. It isn't. My latest for @TheHubCanada: thehub.ca/2026/02/19/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
thehub.ca
How the risk of separation could cost Alberta thousands of jobs
The hidden costs of political uncertainty are high
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Canada has a productivity problem. Research can help. A new piece from me in @nationalpost on a broad partnership to build new tools, evidence, and talent to raise living standards and strengthen prosperity for decades to come. nationalpost.com/opinion/can... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
nationalpost.com
Trevor Tombe: Canada has a productivity problem. Research is how we fix it
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Thrilled for the 7th event in @policy_school’s Canada’s Productivity Initiative in partnership with Rotman, featuring insight from Carolyn Rogers, Bill Morneau, Susan Black, Glenda Crisp, and so many more. Livestream available: community.rotman.utoronto.ca/events/s/sp... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Rising separatist sentiment could come with real risks to jobs and income. I estimate nearly 2 million jobs depend on interprovincial trade with Alberta and Quebec. My latest for @TheHubCanada here: thehub.ca/2026/02/04/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
New population projections from Statistics Canada suggest that Alberta may become the third largest province within a decade, although much depends on the level of interprovincial migration. www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
Very happy to have contributed to the latest research from the IMF on internal trade in Canada. Summary here 👇 "Canada Can Grow Faster by Unlocking Its Own Market" www.imf.org/en/news/art... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
Excellent 'On The Line' podcast episode on central bank independence, and understanding the latest threats to the US Fed. Jen Gerson and Chris Ragan: www.readtheline.ca/p/will-the-u... #cdnpoli #cdnecon
readtheline.ca
Will the U.S. Fed bend to Trump's will?
And what would a less independent U.S. central bank mean for Canada's economy?
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Reposted by Trevor Tombe
Daniel Béland @danielbeland.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Sharing this new @irpp.org paper on #internaltrade by Diya Jiang, @trevortombe.bsky.social and I: “The Politics of Internal Trade: Narratives, Public Opinion and Canadian Federalism” @mcgillpolisci.bsky.social @cpsa-acsp.bsky.social centre.irpp.org/research-stu...
centre.irpp.org
The Politics of Internal Trade: Narratives, Public Opinion and Canadian Federalism - Centre of Excellence on the Canadian Federation
Introduction In response to the ongoing trade war between Canada and the United States, triggered by Donald Trump’s return to the White House, calls to liberalize trade within Canada have gained unpre...
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
Alberta's "royalty rollercoaster" is larger than ever. Oil price moves now cost the government ~5x more per $1/bbl than a decade ago. Something will have to give. And soon. My latest for @TheHubCanada on Alberta's upcoming fiscal challenges: thehub.ca/2026/01/08/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli
thehub.ca
An Alberta budget crisis? It may be closer than you think
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Annalise Klingbeil @annaliseak.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
"If you read a book in 2025—just one book—you belong to an endangered species...fewer than half of Americans had read a single book in the previous 12 months; only 38 percent had read a novel or short story." www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
theatlantic.com
Reading Is a Vice
Being a reader means cultivating a relationship with the world that, by most standards, can seem pointless and counterproductive.
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Trevor Tombe @trevortombe.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Statistics Canada (Sean Clarke + Andrew Fields) finds Canada's 2025 employment drop stemmed from industries reliant on U.S. exports. The cause? Not increased layoffs, but reduced hiring rates. (Maybe b/c high uncertainty.) Details: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-2... #cdnecon
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