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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 02/10/2026

Breaking News! y-Axis Alert! With yesterday's preliminary Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature spiking to a new record at 29.975°C, the y-axis was raised to 30.5°C. Meanwhile, the Niño 3.4 anomaly now sits at 3.33°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. Until tomorrow ...

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Wading into the "relative versus absolute" El Niño intensity debate: I genuinely think both are important--and I think we lose important information if we focus solely on one vs another. And both, as of late Sep, have now reached or exceeded record levels! [Thread]

Plot by Daniel Swain showing temporal evolution of ONI vs RONI index during 2026, representing two different ways to visualize El Nino intensity. The ONI has been at record levels since May, and the RONI has been at near-record levels since June. Data directly from NOAA.

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Not really surprising, then, that the U.S. elected a rapist as president, even though that shouldn't have happened. And that the U.S. population isn't in the streets protesting day after day, even though that should be happening.

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Some crazy stuff going on with the warm pool right now. You can even see it in the raw temperature plot, reversing the usual vertical gradient. May see Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 warm even further as this surfaces

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Michael Lowry @michaelrlowry.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Polo's been a Category 5 hurricane for a total of 48 hours so far, longer than any other Category 5 hurricane on record for the Northeastern Pacific. 2026 also just tied 1997 and 1994 for the most Category 5 hours in a single season and should be the new recordholder by tonight.

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Raywat Deonandan 🍁🇨🇦 @deonandan.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

This should terrify Americans. This is the true long term damage that Trump has done to your wealth and power. The reserve currency was your super power.

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

And over in the Atlantic, #FAY is back, with convection redeveloping over the low-level centre. Definitely a very persistent storm with good structure. The environment isn't super favourable for strengthening overall, but FAY nearly became a hurricane before so so...we'll see.

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

After completing an eyewall replacement cycle earlier today, looks like hurricane #POLO is back on a strengthening trend with cooling cloud tops and a symmetric, circular eye. I could see this storm making another run at Category 5 status overnight.

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

National Hurricane Center @nhc-atlantic.extwitter.link · 23/09/2026

Tropical Depression #Fay Advisory 15 (9 PM GMT, Wed Sep 23): Low Pressure System Re-Develops Into Tropical Depression Fay.

hurricanes.gov

Read more on hurricanes.gov

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Looking at the sun set on hurricane #POLO in the Eastern Pacific. This a textbook hurricane, at Category 5 intensity with sustained winds of 280 km/h. Luckily it's not going to be making landfall in Mexico, despite its proximity to the shore, though it'll drop heavy rain along the coast.

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Looks like #FAY recently took in a bit of dry air, but there's no doubt that she's got a good structure, which was probably helped by the convective burst around 23Z In the last few frames, the eye has popped out. This storm is probably going to become the Atlantic's 1st hurricane at 06Z.

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

There's actually a tropical storm in the Atlantic in 2026. I'll be darned. Her name is #FAY. And she's honestly probably the healthiest-looking tropical storm of the year so far. The system is unlikely to affect land in a significant way.

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Polling Canada @canadianpolling.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Canadians strongly believe they have more in common with European nations than with America

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

El Nino is the one (or, more accurately, climate driver) who takes the credit for this lack of hurricane activity. Not the President of the US. It still baffles me that there are some US citizens who would actually believe what Rapid Response 47 said on Twitter.

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

🍁🇨🇦Team Canada Forever🇨🇦🍁 @teamcanadaforever.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

🚨 ⬇️⬇️ALL OF THIS⬇️⬇️ 🚨 💯💯💯💯💯💯💯💯

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

At peak season and the day before the latest first hurricane for the Atlantic... there remains no activity at all. Will probably see many more similar inactivity records go down before the season ends

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Welcome, Zelenskyy! Canada is happy to welcome you. We know a thing or two about standing up to a big bullying neighbour. We're #ElbowsUp and #GlovesOff, and proud to be called "Nasty" for standing up for ourselves. #NastyCanadian

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Ryan Snoddon @ryansnoddon.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Cape Breton storm is yet another one for the history books over the past decade alone. Friday to Monday totals have climbed above 300 mm in the Ingonish area. In hard hit Richmond county, the Sampsonville station recorded 150 mm in just 6 hours on Friday night! www.cbc.ca/news/canada/... #nsstorm

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

And let's remember, this was not a tropical cyclone at all, or even a very intense system: 996 mbar is nothing in the winter, and even in summer, it's not anomalous. But, if a garden variety storm gets stuck and keeps dropping rain over the same area over several days, this is the result. #NSStorm

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Well, folks...going by accumulated cyclone energy, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is now the least active season ever by this date, going back to 1950. And it doesn't look like that's about to change anytime soon: ensemble forecasts show the quiet continuing for the foreseeable future.

Accumulated cyclone energy to date of all Atlantic hurricane seasons going back to 1950. The 2026 season is the red line on the bottom of the graph, and, as seen in the table on the right, it has a total of 4.40 ACE, the least on record by this time.

European model ensemble shows no appreciable tropical cyclone activity over the next 2 weeks in the Atlantic, aside from a few lows that are more than likely just noise.

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Ryan Snoddon @ryansnoddon.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

State of Local Emergency declared in Inverness, Richmond and Victoria Counties due to severe flooding and widespread damage. Multiple roads are closed and conditions remain dangerous. Stay off the roads unless travel is essential for health, safety, or emergency purposes. emergencyinfo.novascotia.ca

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Ryan Snoddon @ryansnoddon.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Our storm really pounded Cape Breton overnight. Via Cape Breton Mesonet, totals are already in the 100-200+ mm range for much of the Island. ECCC has upgraded the Rainfall warning to an Orange Alert Level for CB. Photos taken in Richmond Co. at St. George’s Channel and in St. Peter's. #nsstorm

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Jim Abraham @yhzweatherguy.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Note that weather models are forecasting areas of heavy rain (exceeding 100mm) between now & Saturday evening. Note that the Canadian high resolution model is has over 200mm in the Guysborough-Strait region. While extreme rain is hard to predict, these values would cause dangerous flash floods!!

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Ryan Snoddon @ryansnoddon.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Long duration rainfall event, with heavy downpours for the Maritimes this weekend! ⚠️ Warnings: Eastern NS, Cape Breton, PEI (60-120+mm) ⚠️ Statements: Central NS, Eastern NB (20-50+mm) Clearing up for holiday Monday.☀️ NS details: shrlnk.ca/s/qQlNn9Bc NB details: shrlnk.ca/s/jmOEIOdI #nsstorm #nbstorm

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Raphael van Lierop 🇨🇦 @raphlife.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

I think the biggest problem with the current US/Canada tensions is that folks in the US don't seem to realize how serious these questions are. "Would you obey an order to invade Canada?" is a completely legitimate question and laughing it off as preposterous shows you have no idea what's going on.

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

I would say that this is one very dead Atlantic for the peak of #HurricaneSeason. The operational models are no more enthusiastic. It takes an extremely unfavourable pattern (El Nino + wavebreaking) to shut down the basin so completely at the climatological peak of the season.

GFS ensembles show only a few weak scattered lows through the Atlantic out to mid-September. The lows in the mid-latitudes are not tropical.

Euro ensembles show a few weak scattered lows throughout the Atlantic out to the middle of September.

Google FNV3 AI ensembles show almost no activity across the Atlantic through mid-Sept.

Google DeepMind GenC shows no tropical cyclone activity at all through mid-September in the Atlantic.

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

It's pretty impressive to be able to run the 00Z Euro out 16 days in the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and for it not to pick up a single tropical storm forming throughout that entire time period. #ElNino #HurricaneSeason

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

How about this? A sunset over Monolith Lake, as in in the game @thelongdark.bsky.social, made by @hinterland.bsky.social in British Columbia, Canada.

A dramatic sunset over dark snow-capped mountains, with a lake and snow-covered evergreen trees in the foreground.

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Charlie Angus @charlieangus104.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Prime Minister Carney went out of his way to negotiate a trade deal with gangsters. He held Team Canada together despite the constant insults from the MAGA gang. Canada will go more than the extra mile to find common ground but we will never bow and kiss the gangster's ring. We hold the line.

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

I'm seeing some strong thunderstorms south and east of the Annapolis valley. There's lots of lightning and heavy downpours in that area, and I wouldn't be surprised if there's some hail too. The storms are slowly moving southeast. #NSStorm

A cluster of thunderstorms with frequent lightning and heavy downpours over inland Nova Scotia.

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Ryan Snoddon @ryansnoddon.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

3rd straight day cracking 30°+ in Halifax!!! Hitting 30°C back to back to back is a rare feat here near the Atlantic coast. This is just the 6th time at the Shearwater site since 1944. Aug 30th to Sept 3rd (5 days) in 2010 was the warmest stretch & only run to go longer than 3 days. #nswx #halisky

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

So, what did come to pass? Well, the models did well in picking up *something*, and they got the location and timing generally correct. However, it does not look like this system is about to try becoming a tropical cyclone: there's some mid-level spin, but no low-level circulation centre.

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

There we go, looks like our #ElNino coupled with #ClimateChange resulted in the world setting a new all-time ocean temperature record on August 6th. Given that ocean temperatures keep rising through the rest of August, I get the hunch that today's record won't last long.

The ocean's average temperature reached 21.2C for the first known time on August 6, 2026.

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Rodney Barney @rcbstormpost.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

=NEW ALL-TIME RECORD= Port aux Basques checking in with a high of 28.2°C today, Aug 6, 2026. 🥵 This breaks the previous reliable record of 27.2°C (Aug 5, 1911 & Aug 9, 1970) for warmest ever at the location. Data since 1898. 🌡️ Quite a contrast to the eastern side of the island! #nlwx

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Chris Fogarty, PhD @cyclone-fogarty.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Hot day Wednesday ... here are some temperatures expected by late afternoon. Humidity levels will be fairly reasonable at least. #nswx #pewx #nbwx

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

The #ElNino is coming on strong in the East Pacific, with an area of anomalies over 6C developing west of the Galapagos Islands. I expect these warm anomalies to continue and intensify through November as El Nino reaches its peak intensity.

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

The top 3 global models are starting to hint at some possible tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic by late next week. From what I can tell, the spark for this system would be of non-tropical origins. The GFS is most aggressive, the CMC least, and the Euro in the middle. Will watch closely.

CMC shows minimal vorticity in the Southwest Atlantic by Wednesday night next week.

European model shows a tropical cyclone trying to form by Wednesday night next week.

GFS shows tropical cyclogenesis well underway by Wednesday night next week.

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Nahel Belgherze @wxnb.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Bordeaux, France, has now recorded more days above 40°C in 2026 alone than during the entire 105-year period from 1920 (when observations began) to 2025. This is deeply shocking.

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

Just a reminder, folks: always verify date and time a #weather model was initialized. The run shown was initialized on July 24th at 12Z. It's now July 28th. See a result that seems outlandish? Check if other models agree. In this case, the Euro and CMC did not support the extreme temps of the GFS.

12Z CMC initialized on July 24th at 12Z shows max temps of the mid 30s in France at 18Z on July 31st.

12Z Euro initialized on July 24th at 12Z shows max temps in the low 30s in France at 18Z on July 31st.

12Z GFS initialized on July 24th at 12Z shows max temps in the high 40s in France at 18Z on July 31st.

12Z GFS initialized on July 28th at 12Z shows max temps in the low-mid 30s in France at 12Z on July 31st.

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

Is there *anyone* with lots of money in the US who doesn't support that felon "president"? Seriously! #BoycottUSCars

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Cheryl in Nova Scotia 🇨🇦🍁🍁 @minibubbly.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

This is Canada 🍁 🏒🍁🦫🫎

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

The subsurface water temperature anomalies associated with this #ElNino are getting ridiculous. So much so that @cyclonicwx.bsky.social had to extend the temperature anomalies scale from 6C to 9C. Let's hope that another y-axis extension isn't required...

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

#Bertha remains quite sheared today. A good example of it this morning, with an attempted convective burst that ultimately fails and is sheared off the LLC. There's enough convection for gradual pressure falls and some stronger winds in here, but Bertha remains disheveled

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Cheryl in Nova Scotia 🇨🇦🍁🍁 @minibubbly.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Ranked: The World’s Most and Least Liked Countries #2 in the World Most Liked - Canada #5 in the World Least Liked - United States - the US is the only major western country with a negative net perception www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-world...

the most liked:

Public OpinionRanked: The World’s Most and Least Liked Countries
Published 1 month ago on June 20, 2026
By Gabriel Cohen
Editing
Niccolo Conte
Design
Anna Diederichs
See more visualizations like this on the Voronoi app.

Graphic ranking countries based on their global perceptions.
Use This Visualization

Ranked: The World’s Most and Least Liked Countries
See visuals like this from many other data creators on our Voronoi app. Download it for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Key Takeaways
Switzerland and Canada have the world’s highest net perception scores, both at +36.
The United States ranks among the five worst-perceived countries, with a score of -16.
Israel records the lowest score globally at -24, followed by Afghanistan and North Korea at -19.

How a country is viewed abroad can influence everything from tourism and investment to diplomacy and soft power. While countries such as Switzerland, Canada, and Japan enjoy strongly positive global reputations, others face much more negative perceptions.

This graphic ranks 65 countries by their average net perception score, calculated by subtracting negative views from positive views.

The data comes from the Democracy Perception Index 2026, which surveyed more than 46,000 respondents across 85 countries.

Nice Perceptions of the North Atlantic
Switzerland and Canada top the global rankings with net perception scores of +36, followed closely by Japan (+34) and Sweden (+33).

Of the top 15 best-perceived countries, over two-thirds are located in Europe. Member countries of the European Union, meanwhile, average out to around +26. This average is brought down substantially by France’s relatively low +11 score, which it shares with the United Kingdom.

This data table lists countries based on their net perception globally.

20
entries per page
Search:
Rank
Country
Average Net Perception Score
1 🇨🇭 Switzerland 36
2 🇨🇦 Canada 36
3 �…

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Although Tropical Depression Two is disorganized and will stay in the Gulf of Mexico, not coming close to Canada, it will have impacts in the Maritime Provinces. A cold front is going to tap into moisture from the cyclone and channel it northeast, resulting in an atmospheric river mid-week. #NSStorm

CMC model output for Wednesday evening shows significant rainbands impacting the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia, along with parts of Labrador.

A weather map of the North Atlantic, showing Tropical Depression Two in the northeast Gulf of Mexico and a string of moisture heading northeast towards Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, and Labrador.

Current satellite photo of Tropical Depression Two in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. It's weak and disorganized with the strongest convection to the south of the circulation centre.

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

And this problem is not exclusive to the GOP. There's plenty of Democrats that are just as guilty of this. The Democrats sweeping the House, Senate, and Presidency is a start, but it's only the very first step in fixing the States. They have plenty of work to do fixing their party.

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

The biggest challenge Tropical Depression 2 will face in the short-term is a lack of structure. The low level centre is located somewhere around 28N, 85W, but the most intense convection is located in a pocket to the NE and a band around the south side. This isn't conducive to rapid intensification.

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Toren Hynes, M.Sc. @torenwx.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

We now have tropical depression two over the northeast Gulf of Mexico. While I don't expect this system to become very strong in terms of wind (likely peaking around 70-80 km/h), I do think it'll be a significant rainmaker.

Tropical Depression TWO
Updated July 19, 2026 at 12:00 UTC

Located at 27.9°N, 85.3°W

Minimum Pressure: 1011 mb

Maximum Winds: 25 kt

Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 nm

Environmental Pressure: 1015 mb

Storm Radius: 150 nm

Formerly Invest 91L

IR satellite image of tropical depression two over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, moving slowly north and northwest.

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 19/07/2026

So says CFSv2 on July 18, 2026: The peak Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly is now forecast to be 4.28°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. The Climate 8-ball is taking the Under.

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Reposted by Toren Hynes, M.Sc.

Dave Sills 🍁🌪️🎶⚓☮️ @davesills.ca · 15/07/2026

Trains surrounded by flames near Armstrong in NW Ontario. Thankfully these locomotives are built like tanks. I'm told that all involved made it out. One train was abandoned, others left their load behind to get away and then still had to continue on foot for a bit. www.tiktok.com/@solmamakwa/...

tiktok.com

What we are witnessing right now in northern Ontario is devastating. This is near Armstrong, Ontario. When will the Canadian National Railway Company make a statement about this incident?

TikTok video by Sol Mamakwa

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