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New graphics from AdImpact vividly illustrate something we've emphasized repeatedly: The GOP's massive spending advantage is *not* translating into a comparable *advertising* advantage. In #TXSen, e.g., the GOP has spent 66% of all ad money but aired just 54% of all ads adimpact.com/blogs/republ...

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Feels quite notable that this new Republican poll of #AKGov, which has the lone Democrat leading by 20, doesn't include data on a simulated ranked-choice runoff. www.cygn.al/wp-content/u...

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More details on this poll: Pollster: Normington Petts Field dates: Sept. 24-28 Sample size: 400 LVs Per our calculations, #TX15 went for Trump by 18 points in 2024. x.com/cjwarnke/sta...

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 30/09/2026

The third fundraising quarter of 2026 ended on Wednesday evening, and candidates are starting to announce their totals ahead of the Oct. 15 reporting deadline. Democrat Blake Gendebien, campaigning to flip New York's open 21st Congressional District, says he raised $2 million for the quarter.

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Really amazing that Colorado, which was a swing state in recent memory, doesn't have a single public poll of its open-seat race for governor this year—which could prove to be an epic blowout that has major ramifications downballot.

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 30/09/2026

On Sept. 1, Dems had a 6-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, per @fiftyplusone.news' aggregate. Today, it's D+8. fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026

Quite the flag from @jacobbiba.bsky.social. Ad from Republican in #NC11: Jennifer Balkcom: Mom raised us on her own. She taught us to be strong. And when someone broke into our house, she shot 'em. Mom: You break into my house, you're going to get shot. www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1lD...

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026

At @fiftyplusone.news, Noah Wyhof-Rudnick recently showed that the share of internal House polls released by each party correlates fairly closely with the national House popular vote blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/why-does-e...

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026

Now that party cmtes no longer file IE reports b/c of SCOTUS, it's been very hard to track advertising from DCCC & NRCC. Today, the D-Trip said it was on TV in 35 districts but only named three. Nicholas Wu at @semafor.com obtained a full list. The DCCC had previously announced TV buys in 24 CDs.

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 28/09/2026

Quite a clip here of the candidates in hotly contested #NC11 being asked whether GOP Rep. Chuck Edwards should resign, from Reuben Jones at Spectrum News. Dem Jamie Ager swiftly says yes. Republican Jennifer Balkcom pauses for 13 seconds before saying, "I'm not sure." x.com/ReubenJones1...

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 28/09/2026

Here's an interesting detail from our independent expenditure tracker, which we've just updated with the most recent week's data: Two-thirds of all spending so far by HMP & CLF has gone toward GOP-held districts, which make up 70% of the battlefield. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 24/09/2026

#NV02 is one of those very conservative districts that nonetheless seems to be in play thanks to a strong Dem candidate and a *very* poor GOP candidate. Here's the latest from @danmerica.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

David Flippo, a Republican congressional candidate in Nevada, inflated his military record multiple times in recent years by claiming he received a Bronze Star “for valor” during his two-decade Air Force career.

Flippo received a Bronze Star in 2004 for his service, but not the Bronze Star with valor, a much rarer distinction that recognizes heroism in direct combat with an enemy. Experts on military awards say such exaggerations are tantamount to lying. The Flippo campaign acknowledged the misrepresentations but downplayed them as “honest mistakes” by staff members.

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 24/09/2026

More details on this poll: Pollster: GBAO Sample: 500 LVs Field dates: Sept. 18-21, 2026 x.com/cjwarnke/sta...

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 23/09/2026

When Democrats flipped #OK05 in 2018, it was a laser-eyes capper to a wild election night. Since then, Republicans have made the seat considerably redder, so if it's back in play ... hoo boy. www.oklahoman.com/story/news/p...

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 23/09/2026

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 23/09/2026

A conservative super PAC is spending $2.7 million to attack Democrat Angie Nixon in #FLSen. A couple of recent polls have shown her tied with GOP Sen. Ashley Moody, though others have shown Moody further ahead. x.com/rpyers/statu...

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The bottom line is that Democrats need to be prepared to take advantage of a potential tidal wave—one that's even bigger than 2018. In fact, a lot of signs—not just primary turnout—are pointing in that direction.

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D+13 is a fair bit higher than the D+8 currently forecast by the general congressional ballot, but if you acknowledge the usual error bars for all predictions, they aren't far apart. And just this morning, The Economist released a new poll showing D+14 on the GCB! fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...

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That points to a Dem margin in the national House popular vote of *13 points* this year. Of course, there's uncertainty here, so the actual number could be higher or lower. But if it really is D+13, that would be the strongest for Dems since Watergate.

That pencils out to an expected margin of 13 points for Democrats in the House vote this year. To put that in perspective, that would be the best performance by Democrats in a midterm since the Watergate elections of 1974, when they won by 17 points. Because we’ve gone beyond the regression line, however, there’s greater uncertainty than usual about this estimate.

If you look at the spread of data points around the regression line, in fact, you’ll see that a House popular vote anywhere from 4 to 6 points higher or lower is not unusual. That said, there’s nothing in the data that suggests 2026 is likely to be an outlier with a departure much greater than that.

For example, unlike in 2006, this year the median of primary margin changes at the individual state level is nearly the same as the margin change for the national primary. What’s more, 43 states showed an increase in the Democratic primary margin compared to 2022, so the vast bulk of our data is pointing in one direction.2

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That gives us a *lot* of data to work with—enough to create a scatterplot and draw a regression line. The dots faithfully cluster around that line, with just a small number of maybe-outliers (and removing them makes little difference). And now we're in uncharted territory, quite literally.

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Oh yes, very much so. Dan's key insight was to plot the *change* in the national primary margin (from midterm to midterm) against the House vote. When you do that, something absolutely astonishing emerges. For the last *80* years, the two measures have closely tracked one another. Eight decades!

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So what if we compare the margin in the national primary to the House popular vote? In recent years, the two have matched with almost scary synchronicity. The purple (primary) and yellow (House) dots from 2006 onward are almost identical. But things break down before then. So is this real?

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This chart shows the D minus R margin in this "national primary" going back more than a century. This year, Dems have an 11-point edge.

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 19/09/2026

First things first. We didn't look at individual states or elections. We looked at *all* the states, going back to 1918. That let us create a "national primary" by toting up D and R turnout across the country in midterm years. And in 2026, the margin between Ds and Rs was ... huge.

Assessing a state’s total primary turnout in midterm years is not as straightforward as it might seem, however. That’s because every state hosts a mix of different races, and for many contests, it might not even hold a primary at all.

As we gathered data, we had some choices to make. We decided to start with elections for governor, which are the most common type of statewide election in midterm years. If a state didn’t hold a gubernatorial primary in a given year, we then looked to see if there was a primary for U.S. Senate.

Failing that, we moved on to any other statewide races, then the total for all U.S. House races, then the total for all state legislative races, and finally, the total for as many county-level races as possible. Sometimes, we had to mix and match, using, say, a Democratic primary for governor and a Republican primary for Senate. On rare occasions, we were unable to find any data at all, but any gaps are largely immaterial.

With robust data at hand stretching back almost all the way to when the 17th Amendment began mandating the direct election of senators nationwide, we developed the graph at the top of this post. It shows the total number of Democratic and Republican votes across all state primaries from 1918 to 2026, in midterm years only. We’ve dubbed this the “national primary.”

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Just weeks ahead of the most dangerous election for Texas Republicans in living memory, the state GOP is spending its time on resolutions to censure top GOP officials. (The measure failed by one vote.) www.quorumreport.com/Quorum_Repor...

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 19/09/2026

We even covered Johnson’s original victory four years ago. If you’re interested in coverage of overlooked elections like these, subscribe to our free daily newsletter today! www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 19/09/2026

Johnson ousted the previous GOP incumbent in 2022 with the aid of “election integrity” activists but they later turned on her and helped oust *her* earlier this year. Not many national outlets covered this story, but we did! www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 18/09/2026

We have *27* poll results in our Poll Pile, including this brand-new survey from Emerson College giving Democrat Adam Hamilton a small lead in *Kansas*-a state that last elected a Democratic senator in 1932. emersoncollegepolling.com/kansas-2026/

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 17/09/2026

As @gregsargent.bsky.social discusses in this new piece looking at red House districts where MAGA Inc. is nonetheless spending money, the GOP *just* gerrymandered several of these seats. We've said that these would not be gimmes, and it looks like the GOP agrees. newrepublic.com/article/2155...

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 17/09/2026

Ouch www.nytimes.com/2026/09/17/u...

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 17/09/2026

Democrat Eliott Rodriguez, the former local TV anchor challenging GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, responds to her ad: "She owns all of these deportations, ICE harassment and racial profiling. She voted for all this. She gave Trump the money and the tools to do this." #FL27

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 16/09/2026

The reason for this is simple: Third-party groups like super PACs pay much higher advertising rates than candidates, thanks to federal rules that require stations to offer candidates their lowest rates. And the gap gets worse closer to E-Day. Here's just one example. x.com/JacobRubashk...

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 16/09/2026

A very good illustration from @jessicataylor.bsky.social of a very important point we constantly stress: Just because Republicans are spending more money doesn't mean they are airing more ads. In #NCSen, they've spent 57% of the $ but have aired just 46% of the ads. x.com/JessicaTaylo...

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 16/09/2026

Yes, Abraham Lincoln in shades is on Indiana's official ballot. indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/09/15/w...

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👀 Despite a split on the left between independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead, Republicans are spending money on #MTSen to help Kurt Alme x.com/PatrickSvite...

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More details on this poll: Pollster: Impact Research Field dates: Sept. 8-12, 2026 Sample: 500 likely voters x.com/cjwarnke/sta...

CJ Warnke
@cjwarnke
🚨NEW @HouseMajPAC
poll in #ME02🚨

🔵Matt Dunlap: 49%
🔴Paul LePage: 49%

🔵Generic D: 45%
🔴Generic R: 49%

Dunlap Fav: 37%
Unfav: 28%
+15% swing since July

LePage Fav: 47%
Unfav: 49%
-5% swing since July

The poll's 2024 recall is Trump+6
12:48 PM · Sep 15, 2026

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More details on this poll: Pollster: GBAO Field dates: Sept. 8-11, 2026 Sample: 500 likely voters x.com/cjwarnke/sta...

CJ Warnke
@cjwarnke
🚨NEW @HouseMajPAC
poll in #NC01🚨

🔵Don Davis: 50%
🔴Laurie Buckhout: 43%

The poll's 2024 recall is Trump+8
6:09 PM · Sep 14, 2026

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