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The Downballot

@the-downballot.com
32K followers 159 following 5.1K posts

The premier source of information for the thousands of elections below the presidency, from Senate to city council. Our site: the-downballot.com

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 8h
Even more vividly, Republicans are outspending Democrats in both #OHSen & #NCSen, but Democrats are nonetheless airing *more* ads. Why? Because, by law, candidates pay the cheapest ad rates, while super PACs pay market rates—and GOP spending is heavily reliant on super PACs.
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Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 8h
Better link here ICYMI---this is huge. Making state and federal campaign finance data accessible from the same portal has been a project years in the making. Congrats, @opensecrets.org! What a service! www.opensecrets.org/state-profiles
opensecrets.org
State Profiles: Money in Politics by State - OpenSecrets
Pick a state to follow the money in its state elections and its U.S. House and Senate races: who raises it, who gives it, and from where.
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 8h
Partly, but chiefly b/c third party groups have to pay higher rates than candidates, who by law are entitled to stations' lowest rates
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 8h
New graphics from AdImpact vividly illustrate something we've emphasized repeatedly: The GOP's massive spending advantage is *not* translating into a comparable *advertising* advantage. In #TXSen, e.g., the GOP has spent 66% of all ad money but aired just 54% of all ads adimpact.com/blogs/republ...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 8h
Feels quite notable that this new Republican poll of #AKGov, which has the lone Democrat leading by 20, doesn't include data on a simulated ranked-choice runoff. www.cygn.al/wp-content/u...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 9h
States w/Senate races this year that lack a single public poll, per @fiftyplusone.news: Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, New Jersey, Oregon, West Virginia, Wyoming And same thing but for governor's races: Colorado, Hawaii, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Wyoming
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 10h
x.com/cjwarnke/sta...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 10h
A lot of Republicans in red states are simply not used to having to run serious general election campaigns. Now, suddenly, they have to—and the rust is *seriously* showing. On The Downballot podcast this week, @davidnir.com & @joesudbay.bsky.social spotlight just how unready Republicans look -->
the-downballot.com
Republicans are looking sooo rusty
Listen now (56 mins) | In red states, they simply aren’t used to hard campaigns
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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 11h
NEW: It's that time of year: time to launch my annual guide to November's elections! I guide you through over *650* interesting elections, & why they matter. Judges, AGs, govs, mayors, lawmakers, AGs, county & school boards—plus many (many) ballot measures. Oh, & Congress. Explore & bookmark!
boltsmag.org
Your Cheat Sheet to the 2026 General Elections - Bolts
Congressional races will take center stage on Nov. 3, but they’re just the tip of what to watch. Prosecutors and governors, attorneys general and sheriffs, school boards and mayors, utility... Read Mo...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 12h
More details on this poll: Pollster: Normington Petts Field dates: Sept. 24-28 Sample size: 400 LVs Per our calculations, #TX15 went for Trump by 18 points in 2024. x.com/cjwarnke/sta...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 13h
Kotek has a massive financial edge, and she's using it to run ads labeling Drazan "Trump’s right hand." But Oregon has no campaign contribution limits, so the picture can change instantly if major GOP donors decide to invest in Drazan.
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 13h
Oregon's race for governor is a true outlier in a miserable election cycle for Republicans coast to coast. Democrat Tina Kotek beat Republican Christine Drazan in a close 2022 race, but her low ratings give Drazan a chance to end 40 years of Democratic control.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest: Why the GOP could flip a governor's race despite the building blue wave
After 40 years in charge, polling suggests Oregon Democrats might finally lose their grip
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 14h
The third fundraising quarter of 2026 ended on Wednesday evening, and candidates are starting to announce their totals ahead of the Oct. 15 reporting deadline. Democrat Blake Gendebien, campaigning to flip New York's open 21st Congressional District, says he raised $2 million for the quarter.
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 01/10/2026
Pete Ricketts finally responds to new ad attacking him for pardoning a convicted rapist: “I made the best decision I could at the time with the information I had.” nebraskapublicmedia.org/en/news/news...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 30/09/2026
Per Punchbowl today, GOP seats that "both parties privately agree are in deep, deep trouble." "Almost cooked already" (their words): #CA48, #IA01, #NE02, #NJ07 & #PA07 "Growing more difficult for Republicans but still within reach": #AZ06, #IA03, #OH07 & #PA10
punchbowl.news
The House Republicans facing tough reelections
There are a number of GOP lawmakers running for reelection across the country that both parties privately agree are in deep trouble.
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 30/09/2026
Really amazing that Colorado, which was a swing state in recent memory, doesn't have a single public poll of its open-seat race for governor this year—which could prove to be an epic blowout that has major ramifications downballot.
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Jeff Singer @jeffsinger.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
A nerdy topic even for *us,* but an important one!
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 30/09/2026
Groups from across the political spectrum are urging a "no" vote on Michigan's "con-con" question, but one notable Republican isn't so sure. State Rep. Jay DeBoyer, running for lieutenant governor, this month suggested conservatives could vote "yes" as a way to remove abortion rights amendment.
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 30/09/2026
Michigan will decide in November whether to hold the nation's first constitutional convention since the 1980s. Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt has scheduled a similar referendum for his state for April—but his fellow Republicans argue he lacks this power and this vote shouldn't happen.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest: Voters in two states could soon choose to rewrite their constitutions
Michigan will hold a vote this fall, while Oklahoma is embroiled in a legal battle
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 30/09/2026
Trump on Paxton at that midterm convention: "Some may not like the way he dresses—although tonight he looked very spiffy in his blue suit, I must tell you ... I don’t. They may not like the way he talks. I can see that." www.texastribune.org/2026/09/09/g...
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Justin Levitt @justinlevitt.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
I will die on this hill: Litigation to extend voting hours isn't usually worth it. You have to know that lots of voters blocked early on: - couldn't make it back by regular closing, and - could make it back by the later time. That extra hour isn't usually worth the practical downside.
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 30/09/2026
Yes. GCB is one of the best predictive tools we have for judging how many seats a party will pick up. And the field is relatively large and growing larger.
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Philip Bump @pbump.com · 30/09/2026
Gas prices are basically the only economic measure that people track on a near-daily basis. And right now they are significantly worse than when Biden was facing the 2022 midterms — and particularly in several states with close Senate elections. www.ctinsider.com/columnist/ar...
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David Beard @dwbeard.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
That "summer polling sugar high" Dems were supposedly on sure hasn't shown any signs of abating
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 30/09/2026
On Sept. 1, Dems had a 6-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, per @fiftyplusone.news' aggregate. Today, it's D+8. fiftyplusone.news/polls/generi...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026
The victim, who narrates the spot, notes that her children were at home when she was raped and could hear "everything that happened." They were her attacker's children, too. The admakers chose not to include that detail in their ad but did mention it on a companion website.
rickettspardon.com
Pete Ricketts and the John Arias Pardon | Nebraska
Pete Ricketts voted to pardon John Arias, convicted of first-degree sexual assault and originally charged with weapon use, terroristic threats and false imprisonment, while victim Jody Snogren was not...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026
Deleted a previous version of a tweet sharing this ad because we didn't want to suggest that the detail about the convicted rapist, John Arias, being the estranged husband of the victim was some sort of mitigation. To the contrary—it makes it even worse.
youtube.com
Pardon
YouTube video by Nebraska Values
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026
Any enterprising North Carolina reporters feel like digging into this story? Surely there's gotta be a police report!
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026
Quite the flag from @jacobbiba.bsky.social. Ad from Republican in #NC11: Jennifer Balkcom: Mom raised us on her own. She taught us to be strong. And when someone broke into our house, she shot 'em. Mom: You break into my house, you're going to get shot. www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1lD...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026
Yep x.com/MattFriedman...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026
State Republican political director to MO Independent on push to beat amendment to restrict legislature: "We can’t just, you know, like manna from heaven, say ‘please, you know we need palm cards.’ I wish we could. That’d be amazing. But we’ve got to actually allocate funds and raise funds."
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026
Missouri Republicans spent months trying to stop voters from getting to weigh in on ballot measures to block their new gerrymander and restrict the legislature’s ability to interfere with citizen-backed ballot initiatives. They lost in court and have little time to put together actual campaigns.
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026
Montana Republicans unsuccessfully tried to make judicial races partisan elections where candidates could be identified on the ballot as Republicans or Democrats. A constitutional amendment would amend the state's governing document to say, “Judicial elections shall remain nonpartisan.”
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026
Don't sleep on Montana's state Supreme Court race. Moderates have long held the balance of power on the seven-member body, but Dan Wilson, who is running with the state GOP's ardent support, would strengthen conservatives should he beat Amy Eddy, who is emphasizing nonpartisanship.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest: Conservatives want to erode the top obstacle to total GOP control in Montana
A key Supreme Court race—and a plan to protect judicial independence—are both on the ballot
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026
At @fiftyplusone.news, Noah Wyhof-Rudnick recently showed that the share of internal House polls released by each party correlates fairly closely with the national House popular vote blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/why-does-e...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026
We do, however, still get IE reports from their super PAC counterparts, the House Majority PAC & the Congressional Leadership Fund. We tally them up each week in this tracker:
docs.google.com
The Downballot 2026 major House group independent expenditures tracker
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026
And we still don't know how much it's spending in each district. Same with NRCC. DCCC release: dccc.org/dccc-announc... Wu's list: x.com/nicholaswu12...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026
Now that party cmtes no longer file IE reports b/c of SCOTUS, it's been very hard to track advertising from DCCC & NRCC. Today, the D-Trip said it was on TV in 35 districts but only named three. Nicholas Wu at @semafor.com obtained a full list. The DCCC had previously announced TV buys in 24 CDs.
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 28/09/2026
This move will only draw more attention to the story. Takedown notice sometimes succeed in removing third-party ads b/c stations may conclude the risks of a defamation suit are too high. But they're immune from liability for defamation for *candidate* ads, which this one is. #StreisandEffect
kansasreflector.com
Roger Marshall alleges defamation in new ad about former Kansas patient arrested while in debt • Kansas Reflector
Lawyers for U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall, a Republican running for reelection, sent his opponent a cease-and-desist letter demanding the Democrat stop airing an ad featuring one of the senator’s former pa...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 28/09/2026
Reminder on what happened to Edwards just last month. Days later, he bailed on his reelection bid (long after the primary), and the local GOP tapped Balkcom to replace him on the ballot. This is a very red district but Dems spending heavily here.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest: Ethics Committee recommends censure for GOP congressman over sexual harassment findings
North Carolina's Chuck Edwards was already facing a difficult path to reelection
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 28/09/2026
Quite a clip here of the candidates in hotly contested #NC11 being asked whether GOP Rep. Chuck Edwards should resign, from Reuben Jones at Spectrum News. Dem Jamie Ager swiftly says yes. Republican Jennifer Balkcom pauses for 13 seconds before saying, "I'm not sure." x.com/ReubenJones1...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 28/09/2026
Here's an interesting detail from our independent expenditure tracker, which we've just updated with the most recent week's data: Two-thirds of all spending so far by HMP & CLF has gone toward GOP-held districts, which make up 70% of the battlefield. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
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Headquarters @headquartersnews.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Ken Paxton: The criticism has been that I let a child predator out after one day. Well guess what? They served 60 days.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Republicans re-gerrymandering Texas and other Southern legislatures in 2027 was already likely after they killed the Voting Rights Act and normalized mid-decade remaps. But Democrats could block it by winning for Texas House or governor, and a quorum break could block it in a 2026 lame duck session
Screenshot of a post on X by Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot), posted at 12:22 PM on Sep 28, 2026, with 4,292 views. The post reads: "Missed this over the weekend, but a Texas GOP state rep expressed interest in re-redistricting next year."

It quotes a Sep 25 post by Rob Laucius (@RobLauciusTX, verified), replying to @RobLauciusTX, @realmitchlittle, and 7 others. The quoted post reads: "Little says he has heard rumors of redistricting the Texas House and Senate. Leach says @GeneforTexas has expressed interest in doing so if Democrats win, says …" The quoted text is cut off at that point.
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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The mayoral race has all the headlines, but one of the starkest choices for Angelenos is further downballot: the race for city attorney. From enforcing tenants' rights to policing homelessness, this office matters matters on all sorts of things. Learn more in our new Bolts reporting!
boltsmag.org
The Most Overlooked But Wide-Reaching Office on the Los Angeles Ballot - Bolts
In June, when Hydee Feldstein Soto became the first Los Angeles city attorney to lose a primary reelection race in nearly 100 years, her ouster put the spotlight on an... Read More
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Dan Shafer @danshafer.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Democrats are favored to flip the Wisconsin State Senate for the first time in 16 years. www.therecombobulationarea.com/p/2026-elect...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 28/09/2026
Simmons is campaigning to unseat County Judge Tim O’Hare, who holds a powerful office that's executive rather than judicial. Ted Cruz this month at rally for O’Hare: "The left wants to flip this county. We can’t let that happen."
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 28/09/2026
Fort Worth's Tarrant County was long a bastion for Texas Republicans up and down the ballot. Alisa Simmons has the chance to become its first Democratic leader since 1986 in a contest that could impact her party's statewide fortunes.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest: Texas Democrats campaign for control of battleground county
The race to lead once-red Tarrant County could have big implications statewide
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 26/09/2026
"In nearly every truly competitive race today, both sides already have enough money to blanket television, your favorite websites and mailboxes. "At some point, an additional $10 million or $20 million mostly means voters see even more of the same ads they were already seeing."
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Jason Rosenbaum @jasonrosenbaum.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
. @cleaver.house.gov to me: “The joy I feel now is generated by the fact that the people won this battle.” Missourians used the referendum process to foil Donald Trump's effort to redraw the state's congressional districts. Full @stlpublicradio.bsky.social coverage:
stlpr.org
U.S. Supreme Court again blocks Missouri from using Trump-backed congressional map
This is the third time the high court has stymied efforts to implement a map aimed at ousting Democratic Congressman Emanuel Cleaver.
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