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Jonathan Bernstein

@jonathanbernstein.bsky.social
21K followers 262 following 14K posts

Good Politics/Bad Politics - Subscribe! goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com Also I root for the Giants. The Making of the Presidential Candidates 2024.

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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 4h
I'll say it again: It doesn't matter what Democrats say now, or intend now. They will impeach Trump, because he won't give them any choice. So I hope they're preparing themselves for it.
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 8h
@jonathanbernstein.bsky.social wrote a while back that there was such a low threshold for getting a Republican scandal claim on Fox News that people weren't bothering to do basic research on them before trying them out, and I think we're seeing a great example of that today
nytimes.com
Jack Smith Defends Trump Charges as Senator’s Perjury Claim Falls Apart
A Republican eager to prove the former special counsel was dishonest appeared to instead demonstrate his own confusion over basic facts.
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 8h
And the underyling truth is that Trump was obviously guilty as charged - and there was nothing selective or unusual *at all* about the decisions to prosecute.
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Scott Lemieux @lemieuxlgm.bsky.social · 8h
The greatest playoff performer in Atlanta Hawks history
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 9h
Yup. We'll see whether Approps passses in December or kicks over to the new Congress. Questions: What will congressional GOP be willing to include in Dec? What will GOP Senators filibuster in 2027? Will Trump sign, or shut down the gov't? And....
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 13h
People really want the story of Trump's second term to include a lack of grass-roots protests (outside of the handful of No Kings events) and it's just not true. Listen to @chenoweth.bsky.social, folks.
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Erica Chenoweth @chenoweth.bsky.social · 13h
My team at the NVA Lab has produced a new dashboard for exploring our data on US protests from Jan 2025-May 2026. This snapshot shows the 61k+ protest events (>14.6M+ recorded participants) active in the US since Trump's second inauguration. Link to dashboard in thread.
A platform displaying the data on US protests from the Crowd Counting Consortium. It includes a map of the US with counts of protest events in circular form overlaying the protests' locations. It also includes weekly tallies of protest events and participations, top protest issues, and various filters allowing users to explore events by location, issue, date, political valence, etc. The top of the image shows a total of 61,782 protests with 14,684,201 participants across 55 US states and territories from January 20, 2025 to May 31, 2026.
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 15h
[Senator Schmitt rooting for the Cardinals, but it's actuallly a papal conclave] [Schmitt rooting for George Brett, but it's actually George Brent] [Schmitt rooting for the Royals, but it's actually Succession] [Schmitt rooting for the Chiefs, but it's actually the Guardians]
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 17h
#NotTheDodgers2026 484 Electoral votes
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David S. Bernstein @dbernstein.bsky.social · 17h
New Boston Magazine cover feature I assembled, on the data showing how superior Massachusetts is to all those other states. Something to peruse before the Sox-Yankees series starts tonight. www.bostonmagazine.com/news/2026/09...
bostonmagazine.com
We're No. 1! Obviously.
Sure, Massachusetts gives us plenty to complain about. But from schools and healthcare to sports and Dunkin’, here are 61 reasons we’re still awfully hard to beat.
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Sam Bagenstos @sbagen.bsky.social · 20h
This whole @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social post is great. But as a guy who’s still out here fighting for the rights of trans people, immigrants, etc., I really want to endorse his last point. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/whats-gone...
goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com
What’s Gone Wrong For the GOP
And some speculation about why.
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Josh Chafetz @joshchafetz.bsky.social · 20h
Excellent, as usual, @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social piece today on where things stand electorally and, more importantly, why. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/whats-gone...
goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com
What’s Gone Wrong For the GOP
And some speculation about why.
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Francis Wilkinson @franciswilkinson.bsky.social · 19h
A far-right Frenchman who's antisemitic -- now I've heard everything. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/29/w...
nytimes.com
Accusations of Antisemitism Hit a Star of the French Far Right (Gift Article)
Jordan Bardella, the 31-year-old protégé of Marine Le Pen, is said to have made antisemitic statements as a teenage activist. He denies it.
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
This is accurate about Trump's War.
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Back-to-back Paxton ads, a positive and a negative, during this excellent Hallmark Mystery show...what do I know but Paxton's positives seem unusually unconvincing and barely professional. The negatives are much better, although I'm skeptical that trans-bashing is actually effective for him.
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Noah Berlatsky @nberlat.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
if trump thought he'd rigged the midterms, he'd be saying things like, "we have rigged the midterms" because he pretty much can't shut up about it when he thinks he's done something clever.
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David S. Bernstein @dbernstein.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The MAGA online outrage of the day is that Gov Sarah Huckabee Sanders has a new campaign ad about her welfare-to-work requirement, and the depicted laze-about welfare mooch in the ad forced to get a job is [gasp!] a white male. I swear to you, there is OUTRAGE
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Big conferences going on right now about whether this qualifies for the Lamest October Surprise Ever award or if Sept 28 is just too early.
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Francis Wilkinson @franciswilkinson.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Many facets to this piece. But one is that at a time when Biden appeared in worrisome physical decline he was nonetheless very much in command. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...
theatlantic.com
How Biden Averted a War With Iran
In April 2024, the U.S. military helped avoid a wider conflict in the Middle East by working with Israel to defeat an Iranian missile attack.
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Major readjustment in conventional wisdom this month...but it's possible that people are still underestimating the downside for the GOP.
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[Christopher M. Federico] @chrispps.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
this is downstream of the institutional GOP essentially having become the political wing of the right-wing media sector
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Need more doomer sneering comments about how naive folks are to believe that Trump will let the midterms happen. #alarmismgooddoomersbad
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I wrote about the Republicans, with their information-free administration and their post-policy Members of Congress and, gee whiz, it isn't working. Plus all the links. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/the-gop-go...
goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com
The GOP Governing Collapse
In Iran and elsewhere. Plus all the links.
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Sam Bagenstos @sbagen.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
This. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/the-gop-go...
goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com
The GOP Governing Collapse
In Iran and elsewhere. Plus all the links.
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Sarah Langs @slangsonsports.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
My grandma learned baseball later in life - from Kruk & Kuip, tuning in for almost every game in her final 15 years It wasn’t just that baseball was there when she needed its cadence & companionship most, it’s that it was THIS duo Forever grateful for their impact. On the game, and my family 🧡
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I've never watched Bluey so dunno but I do think the revived Electric Company should be a serious contender for a spot in a Top 50 list.
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I still would love to see AOC stay in the House, lead efforts to strengthen the chamber, and then become a legendary committee chair... ...but an EMK/HHH style Senator would be a good second choice.
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Rick Hasen @rickhasen.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Cough…John Roberts did this…cough
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
I think I'd go with: Donald Trump's habit of massively lying to everybody about everything has backfired horrifically.
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Steven T. Dennis @steventdennis.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The fraud is by the boiler rooms who sign people up and collect a commission. (Sometimes the person never realizes they now have health insurance. In some cases, they had health insurance but had their plans changed by the broker so they could make a commission, hurting patients.)
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Christy Mathewson and Three-Finger Brown is some Adams/Jefferson dying kind of thing.
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
AP STYLE ALERT: On first reference, he's "Justin Verlander, who gave up two of Pablo Sandoval's three home runs in game one of the 2012 World Series..."
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Lindsey Cormack @dcinbox.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Official congressional e-newsletters mentioning "rising costs" over time, by party
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Yeah - Cook *finally* did a relatively big shift on the House side today, but they're still seeing Dem picking up 5-15 seats, which seems extremely low to me from the polling *and* the reporting we've seen. That 5-15...
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
This all may seem either stupid or funny or both (and sure) but the key as always is that it absolutely destroys incentives for governing, for understanding policy, and, most seriously, for winning elections. This and flat-out core bigotry explain well over 75% of the problem. Maybe >95%.
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
#DemocratsInArray
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Charles Franklin @pollsandvotes.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Trump’s second term in two charts. A bit more context at my (Free!) substack: charlesatpollsandvotes.substack.com/p/trumps-sec...
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Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I think you tagged the wrong @mattngreen.bsky.social
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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
EV caveats abound but... this is exactly what happened last year in NJ and VA. Low-propensity Indies and leaner Dems are enthused and the same group of GOP folks are not. That's a recipe for a big wave.
Nothing changing in VA as we've gone from 60k to 115k to 145k early votes.
EV continues to look very blue, and isn't just a matter of Democrats turning out more of their high-propensity voters faster--the low-propensity voters who have cast ballots so far look to be even bluer than the high-propensity voters.
As I said in my last post about VA, you can't make strong inferences from this type of data that's (1) this early in the in-person early vote process (2) from one state (3) from a state that doesn't have party registration but it's done nothing but harden my view that the floor for the GOP/ceiling for Dems from a turnout standpoint is truly unprecedented in modern elections. I think the 20th percentile outcome for the GOP in November is super, super ugly.
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Yes, but we're still around @juliaazari.bsky.social @dandrezner.bsky.social @smotus.bsky.social @dcinbox.bsky.social @mirandayaver.bsky.social @meredithconroy.bsky.social @jenvictor.bsky.social @jennmjacksonphd.bsky.social @donmoyn.bsky.social and more!
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I knew but still am amazed at how bad these numbers are, 10th percentile having a worse time of it than peak 10% inflation in 2022.
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
C'mon it's the NYT; we're lucky that Girls didn't wind up somehow having six other separate entries. With at least two essays about it. Meanwhile it's now certified that Fargo is the most underrated TV show of the century.
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Steven T. Dennis @steventdennis.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Trump going to Alabama and Oklahoma instead of to swing districts/states. Did nobody in tough race want a rally with him?
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Julia Azari @juliaazari.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
This semester has turned me into actual roadkill already somehow, but I still got a blog post together goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/studying-f...
goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com
Studying for the midterms
Studying for the midterms
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Hadn't watched the last hour of Full Metal Jacket in some time and just...damn. Still feel it's way underrated.
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Chris Galdieri @cgaldieri.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
static.klipy.com
Cookie Monster's Eager Wait
ALT: Cookie Monster's Eager Wait
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Don't even know why they bother to play the season since most teams have no chance so we obviously need a salary cap and probably should cancel at least the next five seasons to get it.
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Getting foolishly upset about the NYT TV shows list >>>>>>> getting foolishly upset about the NYT election focus group.
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I have a couple of brief Dogs, Not Barking items plus more today, including the Thomas/Alito non-retirements. So far. And what could happen in the lame duck if that changes. Plus more, including a tiny bit of GOP-related optimism. Maybe. At GP/BP. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/the-electi...
goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com
The Election Has Started
And other items from campaign 2026 and beyond.
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The thing is that it's entirely plausible that the WH can't handle the logistics of quickly implementing policy concerning who gets into the building and while a deliberate "we can defy the courts a little bit" is scary the accidental thing isn't exactly reassuring.
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