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Sam Lair

@slair.bsky.social
1.5K followers 292 following 215 posts

Fellow at FPRI | MIIS NPTS '24 | RTs/views my own etc. Also @sam_lair on Twitter

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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 5h
RIP DSP. In farewell, something really cool I learned about DSP recently! Jeff Richelson, in his book America's Space Sentinels, describes the FAST WALKER program where DSP tracked other satellites, so called because the satellites moved faster than the aircraft tracked under SLOW WALKER
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
With GUGI in the news, I took a look at the Russian deep-sea submarine base at Olenya Guba. I pulled some beautiful, declassified satellite images. Take a look! www.fpri.org/article/2026...
fpri.org
House of GUGI: A Historical Imagery Analysis of Olenya Guba - Foreign Policy Research Institute
The special mission submarines and Yantar belong to the Main Directorate for Deep Sea-Research (Glavnoye Upravlenie Glubokovodnikh Issledovanii), more
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Ramirez, defend the Military Complex/Triumphal Arch!
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Perhaps the breathless speculation that AI will automate away the analyst, or much of the analytic burden, is a bit premature? www.cnn.com/2026/09/18/p...
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Adam Rawnsley @arawnsley.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Can confirm @slair.bsky.social, @dexeve.bsky.social and @duitsmanms.bsky.social are real and should move to Philadelphia
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Curious about how to model a constellation of space-based interceptors? Well @aaronstein1.bsky.social, @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social, & I have a report for you! We tailored SBI constellations to genuine adversary missile threats to get a more realistic, flexible sense of their size & cost
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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
I am tired of hearing about the impending arms race. horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com/p/i-am-tired...
horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com
I Am Tired of Hearing About the Impending Arms Race
Erin Dumbacher has written an article in Foreign Affairs titled “America Doesn’t Need More Nuclear Weapons.” Among its claims about how the United States does not need nuclear weapons is one particula...
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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
My latest report for @fpri.bsky.social with colleagues @slair.bsky.social and @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
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Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 01/09/2026
Read @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social on why Trump’s plan for a Golden Dome missile shield might accelerate the arms race with China and Russia:
foreignaffairs.com
The Powder Keg in Outer Space
How to head off a new arms competition.
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I return to the Arms Control Wonk Podcast to talk Golden Dome and SBIs with @aaronstein1.bsky.social and @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social Come for our explanations of math, stay to hear what everyone's favorite SBI countermeasure is! www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1222...
armscontrolwonk.com
Calculating the Cost of Golden Dome
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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
The blogfather @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I sat down with @fpri.bsky.social fellow @slair.bsky.social to discuss our joint research on the actual cost of space based interceptors and this layer of Golden Dome. We thank New-Land Foundation for support. www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1222...
armscontrolwonk.com
Calculating the Cost of Golden Dome
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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Trump says North Korea has "57 very powerful nuclear weapons." 57 is an oddly specific number. A short 🧵on why the real number is almost certainly higher.
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James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
When someone asks if I would like an RA to go to the archives for me.
Michael Cheritto in HEAT (1996).

"Well, you know, for me, the action is the juice."
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Thank you Mr. Under Secretary
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Incredible gambit
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
🚨 Job Alert: We’re hiring for a research assistant at @carnegienpp.bsky.social. Come work with me and the rest of the team. Details below; apply by the 18th of August: carnegieendowment.applicantpro.com/jobs/4169113
carnegieendowment.applicantpro.com
Research Assistant, Nuclear Policy Program - Washington, DC
Research Assistant Nuclear Policy Program The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a renowned international affairs institution, seeks a full-time research assistant to support its Washington, ...
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John Ford @jfjord.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
heroes dyno, but legends soar
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
They'll never kill the dream!!!! cc @jfjord.bsky.social
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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Really great read from @fpri.bsky.social @slair.bsky.social @duitsmanms.bsky.social
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
@duitsmanms.bsky.social and I have a short piece @fpri.bsky.social on Belarus' SU-25s & the Russian nuclear exercises in May. Turns out, there wasn't much nuclear about the Frogfoot's part in the drill! We geolocated the exercise and wrote about what it means: www.fpri.org/article/2026...
fpri.org
Lida Shuffle: Su-25 “Nuclear” Exercises in Belarus - Foreign Policy Research Institute
At the end of May, Russia and Belarus conducted a set of what they claimed were nuclear exercises. Some nine or so systems were tested, including the Su-25
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Also worth pointing out that ATACMS and PrSM are some of the best munitions available for TEL plinking - short flight time and low pilot risk As those SRBM supplies deplete, suppressing the Iranian missile force again like at the start of the war will become more difficult
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
@slair.bsky.social, @duitsmanms.bsky.social, John Ford & Seth Hosford will be full-time Fellows @fpri.bsky.social. The team is going to be doing the same awesome work: Using satellites, software, and open sources to shed light on the spread of nuclear weapons and missiles around the world
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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
We have big news at @fpri.bsky.social! For almost a year now @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I have been collaborating on a series of projects about deterrence, space, and missile defense. Last week, we made it official. Jeffrey's all-star team is starting full time at FPRI.
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Such a blast a write this with Aaron and to feature in Aviation Week!! Really thrilled!
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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
A few thoughts on China's SLBM test. This isn't as big a deal as everyone is making it out to be. Nuclear weapons states have missiles and they test them.
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CNN @cnn.com · 07/07/2026
Exclusive: Rush for targets led US commanders to ignore warnings before deadly Iran school strike, sources say cnn.it/4pcGpwP
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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
After more than fifteen years, I've resigned from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. 280 characters isn't enough to name all the colleagues who, against all better judgment, became friends. You know who you are — whether you should admit it is a separate question.
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
A chance to work with some of the most lovely folks around!
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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
We need to go through the images carefully, but Kim Jong Un seems to have visited the new uranium enrichment facility identified by the @iaeaorg.bsky.social last year and located by @slair.bsky.social and yours truly at: 39.786° N, 125.759° E.
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Going to take this opportunity to repost this piece @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I wrote nearly a year ago on the new enrichment plant at Yongbyon www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...
armscontrolwonk.com
A New Enrichment Plant At Yongbyon?
By Jeffrey Lewis and Sam Lair On Monday, June 9, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi reported to the IAEA Board of Governors in Vienna that “the Agency is [...]
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
I wrote something for @fpri.bsky.social on CENTCOM's request for Dark Eagle. While not super useful in that theater, the flexibility its range offers means such a deployment could pose issues for Moscow. Read more here: open.substack.com/pub/behindth...
open.substack.com
Dark Eagle in the Desert | Considerations for Deploying LRHW to CENTCOM
At the end of April, Gerry Doyle at Bloomberg reported that CENTCOM had requested the deployment of Dark Eagle to the Middle East.
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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
My @fpri.bsky.social @slair.bsky.social analyzed Dark Eagle's performance and how even a deployment in the CENTCOM AOR can hold Moscow at risk, giving the US flexibility the INF never allowed for: behindthefront.substack.com/p/dark-eagle...
behindthefront.substack.com
Dark Eagle in the Desert | Considerations for Deploying LRHW to CENTCOM
At the end of April, Gerry Doyle at Bloomberg reported that CENTCOM had requested the deployment of Dark Eagle to the Middle East.
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
This is a great piece from Ankit. Many similarities to the Nixon admin's stated justifications for shifting to Safeguard: point defense is more stabilizing than area defense, easier targets to defend, etc. One thing worth more investigation is whether this generates bargaining leverage, a la SALT
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Tapping the sign in light of scud-hunting discourse
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social has a great post on her substack folks should read! (I am biased because it cites the fabulous work Carl Parkin did last summer) I think I shared some of Nicole's biases on how quickly Iran could regenerate launchers and for how long open.substack.com/pub/axesanda...
open.substack.com
Revisiting Iran's Missile and Drone Campaign
An early reflection on my writing and thinking during the war
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Why decapitation complicates war termination: "We saw that there is an absolute fracture inside Iran between the negotiators and the military — with neither side having access to the supreme leader, who is not responsive" www.axios.com/newsletters/...
axios.com
Axios AM
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
I really doubt we will be able to park MQ-9s over China to plink TELs during a war... Two things can be true at once! The TEL hunting campaign in OEF can be the most successful so far in history, which it is imo, and not super applicable to high-level fights in other contexts!
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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
I told @trbrtc.bsky.social & @johnismay.bsky.social the missile involved in the strike that killed 21 civilians, including at least 5 children, appears to be ~15 feet long--closer to a PrSM than an Iranian cruise missile. This is how I made that estimate. www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1221...
armscontrolwonk.com
It Really Looks Like A PrSM
The New York Times has a second story by Christiaan Triebert, John Ismay, Alexander Cardia, Leanne Abraham and Azmat Khanout that concludes … well, [...]
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
Just in time for your weekend, I have a fresh piece out with @warontherocks.bsky.social on the new 🇫🇷 French nuclear doctrine of “forward deterrence” and why dispersed air operations are a better comparison to it than 🇺🇸 U.S. forward nuclear deployments and nuclear sharing arrangements in 🇪🇺 Europe.
warontherocks.com
Disperse to Survive: The Logic of French Forward Deterrence
In his long-awaited nuclear deterrence speech, French President Emmanuel Macron laid out his new doctrine of “forward deterrence” (dissuasion avancée) and
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Alex Wellerstein @wellerstein.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
The *actual* reason Truman reserved this power for himself, and refused to allow it to be delegated or shared by the military, is because he believed that this was the only way to *prevent* nuclear weapons from being used again. Full stop.
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Time for a real-time case study in how predelegation of launch authority creates problems for establishing and maintaining cease-fires
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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Me and my colleague @slair.bsky.social looked at the drone counter-IAD campaign in Iran for @fpri.bsky.social :: The UAV-Enabled Anti-Air Defense Campaign in the Third Gulf War open.substack.com/pub/behindth...
open.substack.com
The UAV-Enabled Anti-Air Defense Campaign in the Third Gulf War
Should SAMs Fear the Reaper?
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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
@dexeve.bsky.social & I have a new piece out in Survival. In 2024, South Korea secretly deployed more than 300 KTSSM missiles at soft, fixed sites--suggesting that, in a crisis, Seoul may strike first & giving Pyongyang 300 reasons to beat them to it. doi.org/10.1080/0039...
doi.org
South Korea’s Ominous Missile Deployments
By placing more than 300 fixed, short-range surface-to-surface ballistic missiles on permanent alert at several above-ground sites close to the Demilitarised Zone, South Korean Strategic Command ha...
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Looks like one of my slides made it into this Space Force brief on how to annotate imagery! Glad to see they liked it as much as I did Also seems like the slides just endorse careful language for photo interpretation fwiw. Gotta respect analytic tradecraft
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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
We also have a write-up online. Absent debris from an Iranian drone, it looks very much like a Patriot misfire. If it was deliberate, the intercept attempt looks rather irresponsible and out of character with what we know about how CENTCOM operates. www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1221...
armscontrolwonk.com
Analysis of Patriot Incident in Bahrain
This is the longer analysis of a news story (“Patriot Missile Involved in Bahrain Blast Likely U.S. Operated, Analysis Finds,”) we did with [...]
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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
Our findings are discussed in this @reuters.com story by @jonathanlanday.bsky.social, MB Pell and Travis Hartman, with some incredible graphics from @sarahcahlan.bsky.social. www.reuters.com/investigatio...
reuters.com
Patriot missile involved in Bahrain blast likely US-operated, analysis finds
An American-operated Patriot air defense battery likely fired the interceptor missile involved in a pre-dawn explosion that injured dozens of civilians and tore through homes in U.S.-ally Bahrain 10 d...
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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
The team(slair.bsky.social, @duitsmanms.bsky.social others) spent the last few weeks examining this video showing a U.S. Patriot launch in Bahrain. We're confident this interceptor was involved in the explosion over Sitra that damaged 60 residences and injured more than 30 people.
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