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Sam Lair

@slair.bsky.social
1.5K followers 294 following 217 posts

Fellow at FPRI | MIIS NPTS '24 | RTs/views my own etc. Also @sam_lair on Twitter

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Reposted by Sam Lair
Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 18h
horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com/p/some-thoug... Some thoughts on counterforce, and by some broader issues in the so-called "nuclear field"
horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com
Some Thoughts on Counterforce
The “nuclear field” as we commonly call it is, in fact, several different fields in the same trenchcoat.
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Michael Duitsman @duitsmanms.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
This is a reminder that friends don't let friends read Annie Jacobsen books. She is a crank. For almost any book she has written, someone else has done it better. Even her good work, such that it exists, is tainted by the bad.
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
That KJU does it because of the nighttime lights map of the dprk that rumsfeld loved is so nuts
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
In fact, DSP even monitored Soviet co-orbital ASAT tests, tracking the booster which placed the ASAT in orbit, its maneuvers, and the detonation of its explosive charge once the ASAT got within range of the target!
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
RIP DSP. In farewell, something really cool I learned about DSP recently! Jeff Richelson, in his book America's Space Sentinels, describes the FAST WALKER program where DSP tracked other satellites, so called because the satellites moved faster than the aircraft tracked under SLOW WALKER
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
I love the declassified overhead imagery. I think the film looks phenomenal, and the detail is amazing! Here is a Golf-class SSB with the missile hatches open from the late 1960s
A declassified satellite image of Olenya Guba showing a number of ballistic missile submarines, including a Golf-class SSB with its missile tube hatches open.
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
With GUGI in the news, I took a look at the Russian deep-sea submarine base at Olenya Guba. I pulled some beautiful, declassified satellite images. Take a look! www.fpri.org/article/2026...
fpri.org
House of GUGI: A Historical Imagery Analysis of Olenya Guba - Foreign Policy Research Institute
The special mission submarines and Yantar belong to the Main Directorate for Deep Sea-Research (Glavnoye Upravlenie Glubokovodnikh Issledovanii), more
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
aviationweek.com/defense/miss...
aviationweek.com
Key Focus For First Golden Dome Rollout: Protect Leadership | Aviation Week
The Golden Dome air and missile defense program's first phase focuses on deterring a strike aimed at killing U.S. leadership and a limited attack by a rogue nation against the homeland.
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
We have much of this in our back pocket, but still seeking funding to actually write a longer report. If you know someone who wants to fund a report on Turkish missiles, lmk!
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Ramirez, defend the Military Complex/Triumphal Arch!
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Perhaps the breathless speculation that AI will automate away the analyst, or much of the analytic burden, is a bit premature? www.cnn.com/2026/09/18/p...
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Adam Rawnsley @arawnsley.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Can confirm @slair.bsky.social, @dexeve.bsky.social and @duitsmanms.bsky.social are real and should move to Philadelphia
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
There was an interesting convo today about how if one assumed the space nuke was salvage fused and had decided to shoot them down anyways, one could limit damage by striking it at a moment where relatively few sats were in line of sight. Obviously a poor situation all around, but a neat idea
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
All this is to say, SBIs are cheaper now than they were in the late '80s early '90s, but that still doesn't make them a good place to invest our defense dollars, and they would likely produce a more precarious security environment for the United States.
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Another insight from our model is that enemy missile burn time is one of the most important factors for constellation size. Unfortunately, this is something the adversary controls! Studies indicate faster burns on the order of 100, or even 60 seconds, are feasible w/ only a small payload reduction
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
We also considered a number of passive and active countermeasures adversaries could take, drawing on Soviet and Chinese plans to respond to Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative, which don't appear to have changed much in the intervening 40 years but are still just as effective.
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Curious about how to model a constellation of space-based interceptors? Well @aaronstein1.bsky.social, @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social, & I have a report for you! We tailored SBI constellations to genuine adversary missile threats to get a more realistic, flexible sense of their size & cost
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Same as it ever was
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Decker Eveleth @dexeve.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
I am tired of hearing about the impending arms race. horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com/p/i-am-tired...
horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com
I Am Tired of Hearing About the Impending Arms Race
Erin Dumbacher has written an article in Foreign Affairs titled “America Doesn’t Need More Nuclear Weapons.” Among its claims about how the United States does not need nuclear weapons is one particula...
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Reposted by Sam Lair
Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
My latest report for @fpri.bsky.social with colleagues @slair.bsky.social and @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Lots of fire and brimstone in Gaither!
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Reposted by Sam Lair
Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 01/09/2026
Read @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social on why Trump’s plan for a Golden Dome missile shield might accelerate the arms race with China and Russia:
foreignaffairs.com
The Powder Keg in Outer Space
How to head off a new arms competition.
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I return to the Arms Control Wonk Podcast to talk Golden Dome and SBIs with @aaronstein1.bsky.social and @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social Come for our explanations of math, stay to hear what everyone's favorite SBI countermeasure is! www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1222...
armscontrolwonk.com
Calculating the Cost of Golden Dome
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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
The blogfather @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I sat down with @fpri.bsky.social fellow @slair.bsky.social to discuss our joint research on the actual cost of space based interceptors and this layer of Golden Dome. We thank New-Land Foundation for support. www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1222...
armscontrolwonk.com
Calculating the Cost of Golden Dome
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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Trump says North Korea has "57 very powerful nuclear weapons." 57 is an oddly specific number. A short 🧵on why the real number is almost certainly higher.
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James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
When someone asks if I would like an RA to go to the archives for me.
Michael Cheritto in HEAT (1996).

"Well, you know, for me, the action is the juice."
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
If only it were this sane, it is much worse. But while the arguments are often silly or spurious, there is more structure than one would think.
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
www.war.gov/News/Transcr...
war.gov
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Thank you Mr. Under Secretary
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
www.defenseone.com/policy/2026/...
defenseone.com
‘There is no Golden Dome’ unless Congress prioritizes funding, general warns
Last year, the Pentagon forbade officials to talk about it. Now the program’s leader is calling for help.
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Incredible gambit
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
🚨 Job Alert: We’re hiring for a research assistant at @carnegienpp.bsky.social. Come work with me and the rest of the team. Details below; apply by the 18th of August: carnegieendowment.applicantpro.com/jobs/4169113
carnegieendowment.applicantpro.com
Research Assistant, Nuclear Policy Program - Washington, DC
Research Assistant Nuclear Policy Program The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a renowned international affairs institution, seeks a full-time research assistant to support its Washington, ...
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Absolutely, though I think even SORT (which Linton Brooks joked was just two posture statements stapled together) might be beyond this particular crew...
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
And if they did it would likely be quite uneven and not to our advantage. Like Kissinger with the SLBMs/SSBNs at the end of SALT I but vastly worse
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John Ford @jfjord.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
heroes dyno, but legends soar
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
They'll never kill the dream!!!! cc @jfjord.bsky.social
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Bizarrely enough, no
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Fr? Thank god
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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Really great read from @fpri.bsky.social @slair.bsky.social @duitsmanms.bsky.social
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Apologies for the Boz Scaggs joke, but I truly couldn't help it
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
@duitsmanms.bsky.social and I have a short piece @fpri.bsky.social on Belarus' SU-25s & the Russian nuclear exercises in May. Turns out, there wasn't much nuclear about the Frogfoot's part in the drill! We geolocated the exercise and wrote about what it means: www.fpri.org/article/2026...
fpri.org
Lida Shuffle: Su-25 “Nuclear” Exercises in Belarus - Foreign Policy Research Institute
At the end of May, Russia and Belarus conducted a set of what they claimed were nuclear exercises. Some nine or so systems were tested, including the Su-25
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Also worth pointing out that ATACMS and PrSM are some of the best munitions available for TEL plinking - short flight time and low pilot risk As those SRBM supplies deplete, suppressing the Iranian missile force again like at the start of the war will become more difficult
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
@slair.bsky.social, @duitsmanms.bsky.social, John Ford & Seth Hosford will be full-time Fellows @fpri.bsky.social. The team is going to be doing the same awesome work: Using satellites, software, and open sources to shed light on the spread of nuclear weapons and missiles around the world
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Aaron Stein @aaronstein1.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
We have big news at @fpri.bsky.social! For almost a year now @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I have been collaborating on a series of projects about deterrence, space, and missile defense. Last week, we made it official. Jeffrey's all-star team is starting full time at FPRI.
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Such a blast a write this with Aaron and to feature in Aviation Week!! Really thrilled!
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Sam Lair @slair.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
So did Ivan Toney
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Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
A few thoughts on China's SLBM test. This isn't as big a deal as everyone is making it out to be. Nuclear weapons states have missiles and they test them.
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