Sign in

Skanda Amarnath

@skandaamarnath.bsky.social
17K followers 1.7K following 769 posts

Executive Director of Employ America Macro / Labor / Finance / Energy / Chart posting

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Sean O’Kane @okane.fyi · 08/10/2026
j walter weatherman from arrested development and it says "and that's why you don't trust arr"
09714
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 08/10/2026
OOPSIE-AI strikes again I blame the agents OpenAI annualised revenues $20bn less than previously signalled - as.ft.com/r/fcd72bb4-1...
as.ft.com
OpenAI annualised revenues $20bn less than previously signalled
AI giant recently told investors the key figure was approaching $50bn in September, far less than the $70bn that was widely reported
6538
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Seewrap @craptor.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
Arsenal chat on the double pivot discord RN
static.klipy.com
Weekend Party Champagne Celebration
ALT: Weekend Party Champagne Celebration
032
Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
We defended the case for rate cuts last year while Trump was in office. Same in 2019 & 2020 Im sure we dont view monetary policy the same way you do, and that we put a higher emphasis on the value of Fed independence than you. But try to avoid resorting to the cheapest critique
020
Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Thanks for engaging, but the post is about dismissing a flimsy argument Kevin Warsh wants to deploy for arguing for rate cuts. There may be better arguments for rate cuts (there are) but to say we are advocating for rate hikes right now? That’s a bad misread
220
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Luke Kawa @ljkawa.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
@skandaamarnath.bsky.social does not mince words: “Every major pillar of [Warsh’s] self-portrait inverts the public record.” www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...
employamerica.org
Kevin Warsh: The Words Of Today or The Deeds Over Decades?
Kevin Warsh is likely to present himself today as an educated, principled institutionalist who naturally treasures Fed independence. His opening remarks invoke Milton Friedman and Ben Bernanke, name G...
0149
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Preston Mui @prestonmui.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol... "Every major pillar of his self-portrait inverts the public record." -- @skandaamarnath.bsky.social on the flip-flops and contradictions of Kevin Warsh's history and how he's presenting himself today
employamerica.org
Kevin Warsh: The Words Of Today or The Deeds Over Decades?
Kevin Warsh is likely to present himself today as an educated, principled institutionalist who naturally treasures Fed independence. His opening remarks invoke Milton Friedman and Ben Bernanke, name G...
094
Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
I dont think this is defensible. BEA uses a lot of shit source data even when better alternatives exist. Doesnt mean switching up the source midstream like this is ok. Looks a lot less like a stable process now
181
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Exactly! So we emailed and got this response. They have been using the source data despite it not meeting CPI publication standards for years but suddenly shifted when there was a large gain. A shift in source data would typically be done as part of an annual revision and disclosed ahead of time:
37814
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Troubling development--Core PCE inflation was hot in Jan at 0.36% m/m & 3.1% y/y BUT it would have been even hotter had BEA not shifted its source data in an ad hoc fashion to avoid showing an 11.9% m/m rise in legal fees shown in the CPI. The BEA acknowledged they made this choice...not a good look
1231990
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
That is a reasonable concern, but there are plenty of noisy sources ripe for improvement, that is what the annual benchmark process is all about. Changing things in an ad hoc way with no disclosure is the real news here, and decidedly not how they used to make decisions
1487
Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
If youre a pundit on one of these arsenal podcasts, channels, or shows, you gain a bigger following on the other site if you lean into the most base anxieties of what extremely online fans express most regularly. The extremely online fans get mad. Arsenal pundits who lean in & pile on. Profit
030
Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Trump wanted low rates but when you pick the most partisan guy on the basis of obsequiousness, he may not get what he wants... Also doesn't help when the dollar has shown persistent weakening for the first time in a while.
3275
Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
The long-term borrowing costs that American businesses, families, and Uncle Sam face...those are based on more than one election cycle If you're going to cut rates to please the current President, there's some additional inflation or future rate hikes that also get priced in...
04610
Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
What you can expect from Warsh as Fed Chair -More emphasis on what suits POTUS if it's a Republican -Sudden concerns about inflation and fiscal deficits the moment it's not an R in the WH. Don't expect the Fed to be a good-faith broker if govt is divided in the next crisis
522466
Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Sure sounds like Kevin Warsh is Trump's Fed Chair choice His views mostly change based on which master he intends to serve, and general partisan convenience. Thought rates were too low until...November 2024. What a shocker Tired: Data-dependence Wired: Presidential-dependence
19115
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
James Benge @jamesbenge.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
It's Permutations Christmas Eve! And with huge thanks to @skandaamarnath.bsky.social we've got 100,000 simulations of the final round of league phase games to comb through - Likely opponents for top two - Who gets eighth - Is a draw enough for Napoli? Article 👇 www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/...
082
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Mike Goodman @themlg.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
Had @jamesbenge.bsky.social sort through everybody’s Matchday 8 chances using @skandaamarnath.bsky.social modeling. www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/...
cbssports.com
Champions League Matchday: Who will advance, who makes playoffs, odds
Three burning questions for Matchday 8: How will everything shake out in chaotic Champions League table
161
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
new subscriber @doublepivotpodcast.bsky.social ! talking through all the Champions League Matchday Eight ~~Scenarios~~ with @skandaamarnath.bsky.social and his projection spreadsheet www.patreon.com/posts/scenar...
patreon.com
Scenarios!! (with Skanda Amarnath) | The Double Pivot Podcast
Get more from The Double Pivot Podcast on Patreon
0103
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Mike Goodman @themlg.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
Nice little preview of something we’ve got cooking with some help from the great @skandaamarnath.bsky.social
1111
Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
The real move here is to say "we were really right because that's where Core PCE is now tracking"
181
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
George Pearkes @peark.es · 13/01/2026
no, it's JPM speak for "we were at 0.4% and it came in half that (rounded) so we need to explain why we boofed the estimate so bad"
2274
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Latest @employamerica.bsky.social It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
employamerica.org
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
Summary: The unemployment rate has risen 1% from its post-pandemic trough three years ago, but this rise likely overstates the degree of labor market and business cycle deterioration relative to what ...
14410
Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Restaurant inflation still biting
194
Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Womp womp CPI is a fixed-weight basket of goods and services, but PCE inflation is weighted towards how consumers actually spend When you look at the goods where people actually allocate their dollars and prices are less volatile, we're seeing some meaningful upside right now
26815
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
George Pearkes @peark.es · 13/01/2026
Main Cabin (everything below first/business class) revenues -7% YoY while Premium (first/business) +9% is really wild.
DELTA AIR LINES, INC.
Passenger Revenue
(Unaudited)
Three Months Ended Year Ended
December 31, December 31,
(in millions) 2025 2024 $ Change % Change 2025 2024 $ Change % Change
Ticket - Main cabin $ 5,620 $ 6,047 $ (427) (7) % $ 23,391 $ 24,497 $ (1,106) (5) %
Ticket - Premium products 5,695 5,222 473 9 % 22,097 20,599 1,498 7 %
Loyalty travel awards 1,096 1,043 53 5 % 4,237 3,841 396 10 %
Travel-related services 505 503 2 — % 2,043 1,957 86 4 %
Passenger revenue $ 12,916 $ 12,815 $ 101 1 % $ 51,768 $ 50,894 $ 874 2 %
1314421
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
George Pearkes @peark.es · 13/01/2026
nm we got DAL *DELTA: 2026 GROWTH ACCELERATING ON CONSUMER, CORPORATE DEMAND *DELTA AIR LINES TO BUY AS MANY AS 60 BOEING 787 JETS *DELTA AIR LINES 4Q ADJ EPS $1.55, EST. $1.53 *DELTA AIR LINES 4Q PASSENGER REV. $12.92B, EST. $13.01B *DELTA AIR LINES SEES 2026 ADJ EPS $6.50 TO $7.50, EST. $7.20
3625
Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Latest @employamerica.bsky.social It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate www.employamerica.org/labor-market...
employamerica.org
It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate
Summary: The unemployment rate has risen 1% from its post-pandemic trough three years ago, but this rise likely overstates the degree of labor market and business cycle deterioration relative to what ...
14410
Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 27/12/2025
“As this match *kinda* shows” Would prefer a more balanced pitch too. This is not my platonic ideal of a match but if you can get good finishes while encouraging attacking bowling & fields, would be good for broader game. T20s have done this for attacking batting (& defensive bowling)
110
Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 27/12/2025
It’s not the greatest match i’ve ever seen and I dont think we need this unbalanced of a pitch in general, but it’s set up to be a thrilling finish with extremely attacking bowling. It wouldnt be bad for cricket to try to capture that more consistently
100
Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 27/12/2025
Ok not “all that is great” but probably 80%. Which is pretty good and helps make sure we have a format that isnt something only 3-5 countries can afford to play
100
Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 27/12/2025
As this match kinda shows: if you spice up the pitch, cut out part time bowling and tail end batting, you probably can capture all that is great about test cricket in a duration of match comparable and competitive with t20s
220
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Scott Willis @scott.cannonstats.com · 23/12/2025
4.44 shots plus key passes per 90, with 0.43 xG + xA 3.29 shots plus key passes per 90, with 0.34 xG + xA One of these is Eze and one of these is Odegaard this season in the PL + CL.
5111
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
There are no shortcuts to affordability. stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/there-are-... My new piece argues that the challenge for policymakers now is to support stable, sustainable growth. No quick fixes or gimmicks. We need “some years” of good policy.
stayathomemacro.substack.com
There are no shortcuts to affordability
As 2025 comes to a close, affordability is the lens through which all policymakers are being judged.
27820
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
it’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
fair. but I'd say the growth slowdown in '18 wasn't a crisis. neither was the Fed jacking up rates. but a stock like META doesn't drop like this unless there's a *theme* -- somewhat similar to those 2 instances -- happening
291
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
it’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
META has four 25%+ drawdowns in 13 years. (1) the 2018 growth scare (2) covid (3) the Fed going from ZIRP (4) trump breaking world trade. what's happening now isn't a run of the mill correction
2283
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
it’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
half of ORCL's 40%+ drawdowns happened during and after dotcom bubble. another was the 1987 crash. multiple major stocks don't move like this unless something is *happening*
4282
Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 02/11/2025
Thanks George!
030
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
George Pearkes @peark.es · 29/10/2025
Good @skandaamarnath.bsky.social interview by @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social Especially like Skanda’s point about booms creating the opportunity for long lockups of capital that might otherwise negotiate more flighty terms. overcast.fm/+ABGreBEvq-s
overcast.fm
The Lesson Nuclear Companies Should Take From the Dot-Com Boom — Shift Key with Robinson Meyer and Jesse Jenkins
Electricity prices are the biggest economic issue in the New Jersey governor’s race, which is perhaps next month’s most closely watched election. Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic candidate and frontrunn...
1204
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Robinson Meyer @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
This week on Shift Key, I spoke with @skandaamarnath.bsky.social about how NJ’s power prices became central to its gov race, whether the nuclear industry is in an AI-fueled mania, and what lessons power companies should take from the dot-com boom: heatmap.news/podcast/shif...
heatmap.news
The Lesson Nuclear Companies Should Take From the Dot-Com Boom
Rob talks New Jersey past, present, and future with Employ America’s Skanda Amarnath.
0142
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
BUM CHILLUPS AKA SPENCER HALL AKA PRESIDENT FOOTBALL @edsbs.bsky.social · 11/10/2025
Every shot of this Seattle crowd I see the classic PNW couple of “Librarian lady and mechanic man”
2078363
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Better Markets @bettermarkets.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
Kate Judge, Co-Chair, Better Markets Academic Advisory Board & Columbia Law Prof. joins @jeremykress.bsky.social, Assoc. Professor U-M Business and Co-Faculty Dir. U-M Ctr on Finance, Law & Policy; @skandaamarnath.bsky.social, Exec. Dir. @employamerica.bsky.social to discuss what's next for the Fed.
043
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
it’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
seeing the squad depth that prevents a drop off from starters missing it’s like watching color tv for the first time
061
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
it’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
the cure for male loneliness is watching Arsenal go away in Europe without Saka, Saliba, Havertz, Odegaard, Jesus, White and not freaking out
191
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
George Pearkes @peark.es · 11/09/2025
Third straight year where there's been a week with a *huge* spike in initial claims filings for Texas. Prior two times were big one-offs. If that's the case again, the national claims data looks completely different...v similar to last couple of years.
Charts of NSA jobless claims for Texas since 2022 and national ex Texas jobless claims (also NSA)
79213
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Preston Mui @prestonmui.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
@skandaamarnath.bsky.social and I have a piece out about Stephen Miran, who is being considered for the Fed Board, and some of his concerning views around debt default, dollar policy, and fed independence. Some was covered at the hearing, but there's more... www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...
employamerica.org
Treasury Default, A Weak Dollar Policy, and Mass Fed Firings? What The Miran Hearing Missed
The confirmation hearing for Miran aired some key issues, but hardly all of them, and not the most important ones. It would be unwise to make an exception for seemingly “short-term” appointments; shor...
33920
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Tim Bartik @timbartik.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
My papers arguing that the "Abundance Movement" needs broadening to include place-based jobs policies for distressed places are being released today, with a long paper at the Upjohn Institute & a shorter summary at Brookings Metro.
78731
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Preston Mui @prestonmui.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
Point 2: The framework prevented the Fed from being forward-looking in their rate-making decision, delaying their decision to raise rates. It's true that their 2020 forward guidance was based on realized outcomes...
141
Reposted by Skanda Amarnath
Preston Mui @prestonmui.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
My reading of the record is that the real effect of this language was to expand the Fed's assessment of the labor market beyond just the U-3 unemployment rate (the long-run projection of which did not change much), esp. to participation and empl. rates.
151