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Preston Mui @prestonmui.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol... "Every major pillar of his self-portrait inverts the public record." -- @skandaamarnath.bsky.social on the flip-flops and contradictions of Kevin Warsh's history and how he's presenting himself today

employamerica.org

Kevin Warsh: The Words Of Today or The Deeds Over Decades?

Kevin Warsh is likely to present himself today as an educated, principled institutionalist who naturally treasures Fed independence. His opening remarks invoke Milton Friedman and Ben Bernanke, name G...

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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

Exactly! So we emailed and got this response. They have been using the source data despite it not meeting CPI publication standards for years but suddenly shifted when there was a large gain. A shift in source data would typically be done as part of an annual revision and disclosed ahead of time:

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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

Troubling development--Core PCE inflation was hot in Jan at 0.36% m/m & 3.1% y/y BUT it would have been even hotter had BEA not shifted its source data in an ad hoc fashion to avoid showing an 11.9% m/m rise in legal fees shown in the CPI. The BEA acknowledged they made this choice...not a good look

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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

That is a reasonable concern, but there are plenty of noisy sources ripe for improvement, that is what the annual benchmark process is all about. Changing things in an ad hoc way with no disclosure is the real news here, and decidedly not how they used to make decisions

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Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 30/01/2026

Trump wanted low rates but when you pick the most partisan guy on the basis of obsequiousness, he may not get what he wants... Also doesn't help when the dollar has shown persistent weakening for the first time in a while.

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Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 30/01/2026

The long-term borrowing costs that American businesses, families, and Uncle Sam face...those are based on more than one election cycle If you're going to cut rates to please the current President, there's some additional inflation or future rate hikes that also get priced in...

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Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 30/01/2026

What you can expect from Warsh as Fed Chair -More emphasis on what suits POTUS if it's a Republican -Sudden concerns about inflation and fiscal deficits the moment it's not an R in the WH. Don't expect the Fed to be a good-faith broker if govt is divided in the next crisis

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Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 30/01/2026

Sure sounds like Kevin Warsh is Trump's Fed Chair choice His views mostly change based on which master he intends to serve, and general partisan convenience. Thought rates were too low until...November 2024. What a shocker Tired: Data-dependence Wired: Presidential-dependence

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James Benge @jamesbenge.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

It's Permutations Christmas Eve! And with huge thanks to @skandaamarnath.bsky.social we've got 100,000 simulations of the final round of league phase games to comb through - Likely opponents for top two - Who gets eighth - Is a draw enough for Napoli? Article 👇 www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/...

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

new subscriber @doublepivotpodcast.bsky.social ! talking through all the Champions League Matchday Eight ~~Scenarios~~ with @skandaamarnath.bsky.social and his projection spreadsheet www.patreon.com/posts/scenar...

patreon.com

Scenarios!! (with Skanda Amarnath) | The Double Pivot Podcast

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Mike Goodman @themlg.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

Nice little preview of something we’ve got cooking with some help from the great @skandaamarnath.bsky.social

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 13/01/2026

no, it's JPM speak for "we were at 0.4% and it came in half that (rounded) so we need to explain why we boofed the estimate so bad"

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Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

Womp womp CPI is a fixed-weight basket of goods and services, but PCE inflation is weighted towards how consumers actually spend When you look at the goods where people actually allocate their dollars and prices are less volatile, we're seeing some meaningful upside right now

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 13/01/2026

Main Cabin (everything below first/business class) revenues -7% YoY while Premium (first/business) +9% is really wild.

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 13/01/2026

nm we got DAL *DELTA: 2026 GROWTH ACCELERATING ON CONSUMER, CORPORATE DEMAND *DELTA AIR LINES TO BUY AS MANY AS 60 BOEING 787 JETS *DELTA AIR LINES 4Q ADJ EPS $1.55, EST. $1.53 *DELTA AIR LINES 4Q PASSENGER REV. $12.92B, EST. $13.01B *DELTA AIR LINES SEES 2026 ADJ EPS $6.50 TO $7.50, EST. $7.20

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Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 27/12/2025

As this match kinda shows: if you spice up the pitch, cut out part time bowling and tail end batting, you probably can capture all that is great about test cricket in a duration of match comparable and competitive with t20s

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Scott Willis @scott.cannonstats.com · 23/12/2025

4.44 shots plus key passes per 90, with 0.43 xG + xA 3.29 shots plus key passes per 90, with 0.34 xG + xA One of these is Eze and one of these is Odegaard this season in the PL + CL.

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Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

There are no shortcuts to affordability. stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/there-are-... My new piece argues that the challenge for policymakers now is to support stable, sustainable growth. No quick fixes or gimmicks. We need “some years” of good policy.

stayathomemacro.substack.com

There are no shortcuts to affordability

As 2025 comes to a close, affordability is the lens through which all policymakers are being judged.

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it’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

fair. but I'd say the growth slowdown in '18 wasn't a crisis. neither was the Fed jacking up rates. but a stock like META doesn't drop like this unless there's a *theme* -- somewhat similar to those 2 instances -- happening

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it’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

META has four 25%+ drawdowns in 13 years. (1) the 2018 growth scare (2) covid (3) the Fed going from ZIRP (4) trump breaking world trade. what's happening now isn't a run of the mill correction

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it’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · 21/11/2025

half of ORCL's 40%+ drawdowns happened during and after dotcom bubble. another was the 1987 crash. multiple major stocks don't move like this unless something is *happening*

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Robinson Meyer @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

This week on Shift Key, I spoke with @skandaamarnath.bsky.social about how NJ’s power prices became central to its gov race, whether the nuclear industry is in an AI-fueled mania, and what lessons power companies should take from the dot-com boom: heatmap.news/podcast/shif...

heatmap.news

The Lesson Nuclear Companies Should Take From the Dot-Com Boom

Rob talks New Jersey past, present, and future with Employ America’s Skanda Amarnath.

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BUM CHILLUPS AKA SPENCER HALL AKA PRESIDENT FOOTBALL @edsbs.bsky.social · 11/10/2025

Every shot of this Seattle crowd I see the classic PNW couple of “Librarian lady and mechanic man”

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Better Markets @bettermarkets.bsky.social · 19/09/2025

Kate Judge, Co-Chair, Better Markets Academic Advisory Board & Columbia Law Prof. joins @jeremykress.bsky.social, Assoc. Professor U-M Business and Co-Faculty Dir. U-M Ctr on Finance, Law & Policy; @skandaamarnath.bsky.social, Exec. Dir. @employamerica.bsky.social to discuss what's next for the Fed.

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it’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · 16/09/2025

seeing the squad depth that prevents a drop off from starters missing it’s like watching color tv for the first time

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it’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · 16/09/2025

the cure for male loneliness is watching Arsenal go away in Europe without Saka, Saliba, Havertz, Odegaard, Jesus, White and not freaking out

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 11/09/2025

Third straight year where there's been a week with a *huge* spike in initial claims filings for Texas. Prior two times were big one-offs. If that's the case again, the national claims data looks completely different...v similar to last couple of years.

Charts of NSA jobless claims for Texas since 2022 and national ex Texas jobless claims (also NSA)

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Preston Mui @prestonmui.bsky.social · 09/09/2025

@skandaamarnath.bsky.social and I have a piece out about Stephen Miran, who is being considered for the Fed Board, and some of his concerning views around debt default, dollar policy, and fed independence. Some was covered at the hearing, but there's more... www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...

employamerica.org

Treasury Default, A Weak Dollar Policy, and Mass Fed Firings? What The Miran Hearing Missed

The confirmation hearing for Miran aired some key issues, but hardly all of them, and not the most important ones. It would be unwise to make an exception for seemingly “short-term” appointments; shor...

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Tim Bartik @timbartik.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

My papers arguing that the "Abundance Movement" needs broadening to include place-based jobs policies for distressed places are being released today, with a long paper at the Upjohn Institute & a shorter summary at Brookings Metro.

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Preston Mui @prestonmui.bsky.social · 14/08/2025

Point 2: The framework prevented the Fed from being forward-looking in their rate-making decision, delaying their decision to raise rates. It's true that their 2020 forward guidance was based on realized outcomes...

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Preston Mui @prestonmui.bsky.social · 14/08/2025

My reading of the record is that the real effect of this language was to expand the Fed's assessment of the labor market beyond just the U-3 unemployment rate (the long-run projection of which did not change much), esp. to participation and empl. rates.

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Preston Mui @prestonmui.bsky.social · 14/08/2025

Point 1: The role of "broad-based and inclusive." RR argue that the Fed pursued an “overly optimistic interpretation of maximum employment" in order to "increase job opportunities for historically disadvantaged groups" because of this.

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Preston Mui @prestonmui.bsky.social · 14/08/2025

In a paper last year, Romer and Romer (2024) critique these additions to the framework, arguing that this language contributed to delaying the Fed's rate hikes in response to inflation in 2021-2022. I disagree with three key points in their paper. eml.berkeley.edu/~cromer/Repr...

eml.berkeley.edu

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Preston Mui @prestonmui.bsky.social · 14/08/2025

The Fed is currently undergoing a review of its framework, which will codify monetary policy strategy over the next few years. In 2020 they made added this language to the statement, placing a greater emphasis on the full employment aspect of the mandate

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Preston Mui @prestonmui.bsky.social · 14/08/2025

For another take on what the Fed should do with its framework review, check out @skandaamarnath.bsky.social's piece on specific language changes the Fed can make to better deal with supply shocks. www.employamerica.org/monetary-pol...

employamerica.org

The Supply Problem In The Fed's Framework - Part 5: Revising The Consensus Statement For Supply-Aware Monetary Policy

This is the final post in our multi-part series on the Fed's 2025 framework review and strategy for dealing with supply shocks. Part 1 discusses how the Fed can deal with tariff inflation risks, Part ...

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Skanda Amarnath @skandaamarnath.bsky.social · 16/08/2025

The trade component of this is the most underrated and most compelling. Plenty of components and equipment involved in growing the supply side for electricity where the US either imports or benefits from import competition. Not just from China, but Japan, Korea, EU...

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 04/08/2025

Also for all the talk of consumer spending weakness, auto sales volumes accelerated late last year and if you look through swings driven by front-running of tariffs and the unwind, they're very much holding those gains.

Chart showing auto sales monthly for the past 10 years per Ward's Automotive

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 04/08/2025

"why are stocks rising instead of falling because Orange Man Bad" maybe because guidance raises outnumbered guidance cuts by 60 reports last week, 99th percentile since 2001. Absolute number of guidance hikes was 84, in the 98.9th percentile for all weeks since 2001. Crazy strong!

Chart showing the net number of guidance raises (guidance raise - guidance lowered) for US stocks since 2001

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Tim Latimer @timlatimer.bsky.social · 30/07/2025

A lot of folks still have 2000-2010s era power prices in their heads as “normal” with an expectation that we will return to “normal” at some point. There are many reasons that isn’t true, but this is probably the biggest among them. We are in a new era of power prices.

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Seaver Wang @wang-seaver.bsky.social · 22/07/2025

Partly it's mineral-specific strategy. But mostly the US needs not piles of minerals but knowhow + operating projects, for which price volatility + market illiquidity dissuade investment. This problem calls for an active reserve fund, not a passive hoard of minerals.

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Seaver Wang @wang-seaver.bsky.social · 22/07/2025

Should a US national critical minerals reserve program act more like the National Defense Stockpile or more like the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? Major new report by my team deep dives into this question, looking at 15 minerals relevant to energy. My thoughts🧵: thebreakthrough.org/issues/energ...

thebreakthrough.org

Taking Inventory of Critical Mineral Stockpiling

The Breakthrough Institute is an environmental research center based in Berkeley, California. Our research focuses on identifying and promoting…

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