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Thom Baguley

@seriousstats.bsky.social
791 followers 1.2K following 87 posts

Mostly posting about statistics and Psychology. Not posting so much on Bluesky now but will try and check in now and again ...

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Reposted by Thom Baguley
Brian Bilston @brianbilston.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Today’s poem is called ‘Word Crunching’.
Word Crunching


I 
wrote 
a poem 
on a page 
but then each line grew 
to the word sum of the previous two 
until I began to worry about all these words coming with such frequency 
because as you can see, it can be easy to run out of space when a poem gets all Fibonacci sequency 


Brian Bilston
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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
Just saw this new paper by Brauer on how linear models of mean effect can be very misleading for ordinal data link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
When the Mean is Misleading: a Guide to Ordered Regression for Meaningfully Modeling Ordinal Outcomes - Journal of Quantitative Criminology
Journal of Quantitative Criminology - We demonstrate the utility of ordered regression models for analyzing ordinal outcomes frequently encountered in criminology, comparing their predictive...
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Center for Open Science @cos.io · 29/01/2026
Now available on the OSF as part of a growing collection of preregistration resources, the new EEG & ERP Methods template guides researchers through every stage of ERP study planning. In our Q&A, two of its creators share how the template can help researchers at all stages:
cos.io
Introducing the EEG and ERP Methods Template: Q&A with Gisela Govaart and Antonio Schettino
Interview with Gisela Govaart and Antonio Schettino, developers of the new ERP preregistration template on the Open Science Framework (OSF).
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Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
We're thrilled to open registration for the Utrecht Replication Games. The event will be at the at the University of Utrecht on June 4th. Psych, public health, pol sci and econ studies will be reproduced! Register here: www.surveymonkey.ca/r/Replicatio...
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Joshua Weitz @joshuasweitz.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
The data is in: the NIH goalposts have shifted. What were once almost certain fundable scores have become coin flips and what used to be likely grants have become aspirational, leading to fewer awards. Another manifestation of how HHS policies have led to fewer awards and less science.
Graph of award probability of R35 and R01 from NIH factbook as a function of review rank percentile. As is apparent, 2025 is a significant departure, with lower award probabilities at all scores <40 and significant departures from norm, where even being in the top 10% is no longer a nearly certain indicator of success.

Data source: https://report.nih.gov/nihdatabook/report/302
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Caroline Russell @carolinerussell.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
Politics London discussing driverless taxis casually referring to “jaywalking pedestrians”. Jaywalking is not a thing in UK law. Transport for London and Government had better not be asleep at the wheel on this.
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derek guy @dieworkwear.bsky.social · 14/02/2026
if you're an older person who finds words like mogg and maxxing annoying, just starting using them. people over the age of 30 have the superpower to end trends by simply adopting them
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Kai Kupferschmidt @kakape.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
“Staff members at the United States’s premier infectious-disease research institute have been instructed to remove the words “biodefense” and “pandemic preparedness” from the institute’s web pages, according to e-mails Nature has obtained.” www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
Exclusive: Key US infectious-diseases centre to drop pandemic preparation
Staff members have been instructed to scrub this topic and ‘biodefense’ from the agency’s website.
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Surprised Eel Historian, PhD @greenleejw.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Tomorrow is Valentine's Day, so let's talk about sex. Eel sex! Well...we can't, really. We don't know exactly where, or how, eels get busy. It's a 2000+ year old puzzle. It's not like we haven't tried. But the sex life of eels is a mystery smothered in secret sauce. 1/5 🗃️🧪
Meme. Photograph of the sculpture "Eel Walker" by Mark Newman, showing naked woman walking an large eel on a leash. The eel -- a massive moray-looking thing -- is floating along off the ground, so we can assume that they are walking through a stream, or on the bottom of the ocean, or through space. OR that it's a magical eel, and it just flies. The eel is fierce and terrible, and probably is expensive to feed.

The woman is done in a golden bronze color. Her hair is floating backwards, suggesting that there is a breeze or an ocean current catching it. I've cleverly (or obnoxiously) written the meme text over her breasts. Sorry, folks; she saving those for the eel. She is muscled and powerful, and the way her left foot is places in front of makes her seem more like a dancer than a walker. She looks like the goddess of eels, taking one of her minions out to gnaw into the dreams of unbelievers and scientists.

Meme text reads: "Let's talk eel sex, baby"
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Mike Hixenbaugh @mikehixenbaugh.com · 06/02/2026
Maria is one of hundreds of children, who — like Liam Ramos — have been held at a Texas detention facility where parents say children languish as they’re served contaminated food, receive little education and struggle to obtain basic medical care. Here's our attempt at telling their stories. 2/
nbcnews.com
Children trapped in Texas immigration facility recount nightmares, inedible food, no school
A photo of Liam Conejo Ramos, a scared 5-year-old, drew attention to a detention center in Dilley, Texas. Advocates say his experience reflects what hundreds of children have endured out of public vie...
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Michèle Nuijten @michelenuijten.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
I wrote a blog for the Meta-Research Center expressing my infinite frustration about not getting data. What else is new, you might think? Well, I added an extra layer of annoyance directed at the journals who do NOTHING to enforce promised data sharing. metaresearch.nl/blog/2026/2/...
metaresearch.nl
Promised Data Unavailable? – I’m Sorry, Ma’am, There’s Nothing We Can Do — Meta-Research Center
This blogpost has been written by Michèle Nuijten. Michèle is an assistant professor of our research group who investigates reproducibility and replicability in psychology. Also, she is the developer ...
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Bryan Banks @bryanbanksphd.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
Firmly believe this would serve multiple needs.
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Diedrich Bader @diedrichbader.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
Wouldn’t have made it out of the VEEP writers room
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 25/01/2026
I was a sensitive kid. I loved cats. I had OCD, undiagnosed. When I was 9, a fraternity brother tortured a cat to death in my hometown. The details even now are beyond imagination. archive.is/xdmUL I was traumatized for years from reading the news story. The torturer? Now the head of the NRA.
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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
I just wrote a short blog post on effect sizes for simple mediation. Not a topic usually write about but it was prompted by something I read that sent me to check the literature and down a bit of a rabbit hole. psychologicalstatistics.blogspot.com
psychologicalstatistics.blogspot.com
Psychological Statistics
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
What can history teach us about what happens when a populist strongman with an idiosyncratic taste for low interest rates undermines central bank independence?
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Griff "Grza" Sombke @grza.bsky.social · 22/11/2025
The teenager told officers he was a U.S. citizen, but an officer broke the car’s driver’s side window and detained him. In a video, the boy can be heard telling an officer that he is a citizen, to which the officer replies, “Get out of the car” and “I don’t care.” www.oregonlive.com/portland/202...
oregonlive.com
High school senior, a U.S. citizen, detained by ICE in Oregon
The 17-year-old was held more than five hours Friday in an ICE facility, his brother said.
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"Write here, write now!" @sentwrite.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
Paper in Language and Cognition with @marktorrance.bsky.social and @seriousstats.bsky.social We show that semantic contrast shapes timing of pre-planning in speech and writing. doi.org/10.1017/lang... If you're into how context shapes how we plan language, check it out!
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Prof. Ian Walker @ianwalker.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
We've got funded PhD places in Psychology available at Swansea - a chance to work on social issues with members of our great team (including me!) www.swansea.ac.uk/postgraduate...
swansea.ac.uk
Psychology: Fully funded PhD Studentship in ESRC Wales Graduate School for the Social Sciences (WGSSS) PhD Psychology pathway (RS896) - Swansea University
We offer a wide range of funded and fully funded research scholarships in all subject areas. Explore your options and apply now.
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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
It's reported that the US government is going to announce they've found the cause of autism (Spoliers: They almost certainly haven't even found one new potential cause). Paracetemol (Tylenol) during pregnancy is the supposed culprit. This seems unlikely to put it mildly. (1)
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Adam Schwarz @adamjschwarz.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
Trump: "When you have a network, and you have evening shows, and all they do is hit Trump... They're not allowed to do that."
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Stand Up for Science! @standupforscience.net · 17/09/2025
Monarez agrees that vaccines are safe and effective, and outlines her worries about an anti-vax world. "I believe that preventable diseases would return, and our children will be harmed by things they do not need to be harmed by." She affirms that vaccines are a major public health advancement.
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Daniel P. Moriarity @dpmoriarity.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
I really miss when the stats blogs I read had light-hearted examples like "here is the concept of a multi-variate outlier explained through beer" rather than "here is another example of a logical fallacy being shared by the head of a national health agency"
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Ruth Ann Crystal @drruth.bsky.social · 06/09/2025
Return-on-investment was $60 - $475 for every $1 invested in COVID vaccines in their first year, making them one of the most cost-effective public health measures in history. buff.ly/lfdINel #medsky #pedsky 🛟😷🧪💸
A cartoon vaccine with a orange shield. Background is pink and green. We see money bags of dollars and euros.
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Fred Oswald @foswald.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
as editor, I'm actually signing the petition myself :) == Adopt Registered Reports at Psychological Methods - Sign the Petition! chng.it/wszLWM4KPX == e.g., look forward to exploring options for preregistration for the journal @apajournals.bsky.social @akmontoya.bsky.social
chng.it
Sign the Petition
Adopt Registered Reports at Psychological Methods
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"Write here, write now!" @sentwrite.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
When do we actually think about what we want to say and what words to use? Interestingly our mind does a lot of this work while we're writing text. In fact, we demonstrated (psycnet.apa.org/record/2026-...) that even young writers often don't stop before starting a new sentence. Way to multitask!
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Jeremy Berg @jeremymberg.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
Yes, it was carefully hidden in the New England Journal of Medicine. Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine (www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1... ) 1/2
A graph comparing COVID incidence after the Pfizer vaccine compared to placebo
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Josh McLaurin @joshforgeorgia.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
I took this picture myself at the CDC protest today. These are among the hundreds of bullet holes in CDC headquarters windows, visible from the street. I heard today that the admin has no urgent plan to fix these windows. Imagine being a CDC employee going to work under these conditions
CDC headquarters windows with visible bullet holes
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Thomas House @tah-sci.com · 15/08/2025
Everyone is different but here are some things I think are good general advice. >
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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Paper with Jens Roeser and Mark Torrance: Semantic contrast ahead: contrast guides pre-planning in complex noun-phrase production | in Language and Cognition | www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Semantic contrast ahead: contrast guides pre-planning in complex noun-phrase production | Language and Cognition | Cambridge Core
Semantic contrast ahead: contrast guides pre-planning in complex noun-phrase production - Volume 17
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Maarten van Smeden @maartenvsmeden.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
If you think AI is cool, wait until you learn about regression analysis
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Ken Dilanian @kendilanian-nbc.bsky.social · 09/08/2025
Letter from FBI Director Kash Patel firing veteran FBI agent Walter Giardina, whose wife died of cancer last month at age 49. Patel accuses this agent, a Marine combat veteran, of “weaponization.” Many of his FBI colleagues told me he did his job scrupulously and ethically.
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Dr. Damien P. Williams, dread portent down from a mountain cave @wolven.blacksky.app · 08/08/2025
It's been obvious for a while that they were headed in this direction, & this attempt almost certainly won't go unchallenged, but you need to understand that this is & has been America's Lysenkoism moment knocking on the door, & it has to be resisted every way it can. arstechnica.com/science/2025...
arstechnica.com
New executive order puts all grants under political control
All new funding on hold until Trump administration can cancel any previously funded grants.
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Richard D. Morey @richarddmorey.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
Paper drop, for anyone interested in #metascience, #statistics, or #metaanalysis! @clintin.bsky.social and I show in a new paper in JASA that the P-curve, a popular forensic meta-analysis method, has deeply undesirable statistical properties. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... 1/?
Cover page for the manuscript: Morey, R. D., & Davis-Stober, C. P. (2025). On the poor statistical properties of the P-curve meta-analytic procedure. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2025.2544397Abstract for the paper: The P-curve (Simonsohn, Nelson, & Simmons, 2014; Simonsohn, Simmons, & Nelson, 2015) is a widely-used suite of meta-analytic tests advertised for detecting problems in sets of studies. They are based on nonparametric combinations of p values (e.g., Marden, 1985) across significant (p < .05) studies and are variously claimed to detect “evidential value”, “lack of evidential value”, and “left skew” in p values. We show that these tests do not have the properties ascribed to them. Moreover, they fail basic desiderata for tests, including admissibility and monotonicity. In light of these serious problems, we recommend against the use of the P-curve tests.
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 02/08/2025
If you haven’t gotten into marginaleffects yet, this may be your chance. Learning about it has been quite transformative for how I think about statistical modeling 🪄
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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
New paper by Chris Atkin and colleagues on the capacity of visual imagination - full text @ResearchGate www.researchgate.net/publication/...
researchgate.net
The Relation Between the Capacities of Imagination and Visual Memory in the Short Term | Request PDF
Request PDF | The Relation Between the Capacities of Imagination and Visual Memory in the Short Term | Visual imagery and short-term memory utilize similar brain networks, but the extent to which they...
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
Trump is panicking because the economic numbers are giving a recession vibe. From the Chief Economist at Moody's.
The economy is on the precipice of recession. That’s the clear takeaway from last week’s economic data dump. Consumer spending has flatlined, construction and manufacturing are contracting, and employment is set to fall. And with inflation on the rise, it is tough for the Fed to come to the rescue.

Unemployment remains low, but that’s only because labor force growth has gone sideways. The foreign-born workforce is shrinking, and labor force participation is declining. Telling is the economy-wide hiring freeze, particularly for recent graduates, and the decline in hours worked. 

It’s no mystery why the economy is struggling; blame increasing U.S. tariffs and highly restrictive immigration policy. The tariffs are cutting increasingly deeply into the profits of American companies and the purchasing power of American households. Fewer immigrant workers means a smaller economy.

Any notion that the economic data misrepresents the reality of how the economy is performing is way off base. There are revisions to the data, even big revisions, but they universally say the economy is doing worse. That’s because it is. 

BTW, the DOGE cuts are a key factor in the revisions—not because BLS has cut staff, although that can’t help, but because the government often reports payrolls to BLS late. It didn’t matter when government employment was stable, but now that it’s declining, the cuts are picked up in the revisions.
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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
A little joy for a change ... this looks amazing fun: www.walker.co.uk/978152951937... for STEM education
walker.co.uk
Maker Girl and Professor Smarts - Walker Books
Two kid heroes use brains and elbow grease to face off supervillains with hilarious powers in this all-new STEM graphic novel series from MIT Kids Press.Ever...
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Calvin Lai @calvinklai.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
Extremely disappointing & cowardly. The American Psychological Association is rescinding diversity requirements. Not due to any actual mandate from the federal government, but only because it may *someday* face pressure from the government www.nytimes.com/2025/03/27/h...
nytimes.com
Under Pressure, Psychology Accreditation Board Suspends Diversity Standards
As the Trump administration threatens to strip accrediting bodies of their power, many are scrambling to purge diversity requirements.
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Dan Kaszeta FRHistS @dankaszeta.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
who did this
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Ian Dunt @iandunt.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
They never learn, I swear to Christ. The agreement is between several parties, Suella. It was negotiated by individuals whose moral & intellectual stature is beyond your fucking comprehension. You don't get to unilaterally rewrite it so it satisfies your pathological simple-mindedness.
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JK Flake @jkflake.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
Are you working on issues of replication and reproducibility of methodological research in psychology? Consider submitting a proposal to my call for papers, happy to chat about your ideas or answer any questions! www.psychologicalscience.org/publications...
psychologicalscience.org
<em>AMPPS</em> Call for Papers on Replicability and Reproducibility in Methodological Research
Methodological reform has shaped the last decade of psychological research. Researchers have undertaken replication studies, journals and funders have emphasized registration and data sharing, and aut...
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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
RA post at NTU Psychology working on hazard perception in young tractor drivers - working with David Crundall (and me) www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DNV058/r... on a Road Safety Trust funded project
jobs.ac.uk
Research and Innovation Assistant at Nottingham Trent University
Start your UK &amp; international job search for academic jobs, research jobs, science jobs and managerial jobs in leading universities and top...
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 16/07/2025
At this point, I might as well -- Here's an infographic showing different ways to include age as a predictor. The top shows two extremes, just as a plain old numerical predictor (imposes linear trajectory) vs. categorical predictor (imposes nothing whatsoever). And then three solutions in between!
Infographic illustrating different ways to model age.
First panel shows two "extreme" cases; including age as a linear numerical predictor (df = 1) or including age as a categorical predictor (df = number of years of age minus 1).
Second panel shows an intermediate solution in which age is categorized into broader bins (df = number of categories minus 1, here 5 - 1 = 4).
Third panel shows an intermediate solution in which age is included with a polynomial (df = degrees of freedom of the polynomial, here 4).
Fourth panel shows an intermediate solution in which age is modeled with the help of splines (df = degrees of freedom of the splines, here 4).
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ryan cooper @ryanlcooper.com · 15/07/2025
"two first-rate economists, David Cutler and Ed Glaeser, have made a stab at estimating the impact of cuts at NIH. Their analysis suggests that these cuts might save $500 billion in federal spending over the next 25 years — while imposing more than $8 trillion in losses."
paulkrugman.substack.com
For MAGA, Ignorance is Strength
Research cuts aren’t about shrinking government, they’re about killing science
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Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 09/07/2025
New post! Our summer edition of What's new in biology: The first gonorrhea vaccination program, contact lenses that see infrared light, the protein behind sweet tastes, baby cured with gene therapy, gene-editing breakthroughs & new cholesterol drugs. Written by me and @nikomccarty.bsky.social
worksinprogress.news
What's new in biology: summer 2025
The first gonorrhea vaccination program, contact lenses that see infrared light, the protein behind sweet tastes, a baby cured with gene therapy, and more
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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
No Jane. You lied. You aren't sorry to have disturbed me. You aren't a local energy adviser. You aren't called Jane. You are a voice activated scam call. Also please tell Chris to stop calling with the same scam.
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Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 18/06/2025
Today, lenacapavir was approved by the FDA as a twice yearly preventive shot! Here's how we got here:
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Samuel Perry @profsamperry.bsky.social · 15/06/2025
🧵 Yet another data point that theology is often downstream of whatever we personally happen to think about a topic. Extending previous studies, the authors show when you manipulate someone's views on an issue, it influences what they say God & Satan think about that issue. 1/ doi.org/10.1111/bjso...
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The Washington Post @washingtonpost.com · 28/05/2025
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said that he could bar government scientists from publishing in the world’s leading medical journals, instead proposing the creation of “in-house” publications by his agency.
washingtonpost.com
RFK Jr. says he may bar scientists from publishing in top medical journals
Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. took aim at reputed journals such as the Lancet and said the agency will create “in-house” publications instead.
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