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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Great blog but maybe edit the final sentence. "And so we have direct evidence that, yes, in fact, this falsified analysis was conducted and included as a response to a request from reviewers." It could be interpreted as implying the reviewers asked them to falsify the analysis ...

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

I was initially slightly annoyed when I'd read it because it was on my list to write something similar (expanding on some briefer comments in my book) ... but it is a great paper and better than what I'd have produced even if I'd had the time.

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

Does it have to be a p value? I' think I'd conceptualise this as a table of the models of interest a, b a+b, a+b+b*c and look at the model probabilities (via AIC, BIC for instance but you could go full Bayesian).

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Brian Bilston @brianbilston.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

Today’s poem is called ‘Word Crunching’.

Word Crunching

I
wrote
a poem
on a page
but then each line grew
to the word sum of the previous two
until I began to worry about all these words coming with such frequency
because as you can see, it can be easy to run out of space when a poem gets all Fibonacci sequency

Brian Bilston

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

In many cases changes to a statistical model can improve things - the paper provides an example where the differences would be important in terms of policy or intervention.

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

Off the shelf statistical models don't in general do that - they're about modeling patterns in data and can be meaningful in the sense of worthwhile, useful and so on which is the sense of the term being used here (and in most contexts).

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

I'm not sure I understand the latter point unless its about the semantics of the term meaningful, there's as argument that all models are wrong and some useful. In this case I think the ordinal model is more useful than the standard linear one.

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

I don't disagree with the first part - the claim here is that a particular model of mean effect can be misleading.

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

I can't see Jonathan Brauer on Bluesky but he is on linked-in (where I first saw this).

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

They general principle won't surprise most statistically aware people (except maybe LPM proponents), but the point is to demonstrate just how misleading it can be in a fairly innocuous use case where the average effect is estimated pretty accurately by either model.

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Center for Open Science @cos.io · 29/01/2026

Now available on the OSF as part of a growing collection of preregistration resources, the new EEG & ERP Methods template guides researchers through every stage of ERP study planning. In our Q&A, two of its creators share how the template can help researchers at all stages:

cos.io

Introducing the EEG and ERP Methods Template: Q&A with Gisela Govaart and Antonio Schettino

Interview with Gisela Govaart and Antonio Schettino, developers of the new ERP preregistration template on the Open Science Framework (OSF).

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Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

We're thrilled to open registration for the Utrecht Replication Games. The event will be at the at the University of Utrecht on June 4th. Psych, public health, pol sci and econ studies will be reproduced! Register here: www.surveymonkey.ca/r/Replicatio...

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Joshua Weitz @joshuasweitz.bsky.social · 07/03/2026

The data is in: the NIH goalposts have shifted. What were once almost certain fundable scores have become coin flips and what used to be likely grants have become aspirational, leading to fewer awards. Another manifestation of how HHS policies have led to fewer awards and less science.

Graph of award probability of R35 and R01 from NIH factbook as a function of review rank percentile. As is apparent, 2025 is a significant departure, with lower award probabilities at all scores <40 and significant departures from norm, where even being in the top 10% is no longer a nearly certain indicator of success.

Data source: https://report.nih.gov/nihdatabook/report/302

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Caroline Russell @carolinerussell.bsky.social · 15/02/2026

Politics London discussing driverless taxis casually referring to “jaywalking pedestrians”. Jaywalking is not a thing in UK law. Transport for London and Government had better not be asleep at the wheel on this.

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derek guy @dieworkwear.bsky.social · 14/02/2026

if you're an older person who finds words like mogg and maxxing annoying, just starting using them. people over the age of 30 have the superpower to end trends by simply adopting them

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Kai Kupferschmidt @kakape.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

“Staff members at the United States’s premier infectious-disease research institute have been instructed to remove the words “biodefense” and “pandemic preparedness” from the institute’s web pages, according to e-mails Nature has obtained.” www.nature.com/articles/d41...

nature.com

Exclusive: Key US infectious-diseases centre to drop pandemic preparation

Staff members have been instructed to scrub this topic and ‘biodefense’ from the agency’s website.

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Surprised Eel Historian, PhD @greenleejw.bsky.social · 13/02/2026

Tomorrow is Valentine's Day, so let's talk about sex. Eel sex! Well...we can't, really. We don't know exactly where, or how, eels get busy. It's a 2000+ year old puzzle. It's not like we haven't tried. But the sex life of eels is a mystery smothered in secret sauce. 1/5 🗃️🧪

Meme. Photograph of the sculpture "Eel Walker" by Mark Newman, showing naked woman walking an large eel on a leash. The eel -- a massive moray-looking thing -- is floating along off the ground, so we can assume that they are walking through a stream, or on the bottom of the ocean, or through space. OR that it's a magical eel, and it just flies. The eel is fierce and terrible, and probably is expensive to feed.

The woman is done in a golden bronze color. Her hair is floating backwards, suggesting that there is a breeze or an ocean current catching it. I've cleverly (or obnoxiously) written the meme text over her breasts. Sorry, folks; she saving those for the eel. She is muscled and powerful, and the way her left foot is places in front of makes her seem more like a dancer than a walker. She looks like the goddess of eels, taking one of her minions out to gnaw into the dreams of unbelievers and scientists.

Meme text reads: "Let's talk eel sex, baby"

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Mike Hixenbaugh @mikehixenbaugh.com · 06/02/2026

Maria is one of hundreds of children, who — like Liam Ramos — have been held at a Texas detention facility where parents say children languish as they’re served contaminated food, receive little education and struggle to obtain basic medical care. Here's our attempt at telling their stories. 2/

nbcnews.com

Children trapped in Texas immigration facility recount nightmares, inedible food, no school

A photo of Liam Conejo Ramos, a scared 5-year-old, drew attention to a detention center in Dilley, Texas. Advocates say his experience reflects what hundreds of children have endured out of public vie...

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Michèle Nuijten @michelenuijten.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

I wrote a blog for the Meta-Research Center expressing my infinite frustration about not getting data. What else is new, you might think? Well, I added an extra layer of annoyance directed at the journals who do NOTHING to enforce promised data sharing. metaresearch.nl/blog/2026/2/...

metaresearch.nl

Promised Data Unavailable? – I’m Sorry, Ma’am, There’s Nothing We Can Do — Meta-Research Center

This blogpost has been written by Michèle Nuijten. Michèle is an assistant professor of our research group who investigates reproducibility and replicability in psychology. Also, she is the developer ...

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Bryan Banks @bryanbanksphd.bsky.social · 29/01/2026

Firmly believe this would serve multiple needs.

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

If I don't know the area I'm likely to read the introduction carefully from the start.

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

Varies, but I usually skim intro and discussion. Then look at methods and results. Usually results in detail and back to methods for clarification. If it is important I'll go back and read the paper from start as one read-through is rarely enough.

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Diedrich Bader @diedrichbader.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

Wouldn’t have made it out of the VEEP writers room

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

I'm in the UK but still getting a lot of coverage of this. I mostly follow friends in science and academia, but many are in the US.

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

Oh and Election Concerns too ...

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

It's still on my trending topics under the NRA Criticism label. I think the reason it is not so prominent is maybe that a lot of people are just emotionally exhausted and maybe switching off from news for the rest of Sunday.

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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 25/01/2026

I was a sensitive kid. I loved cats. I had OCD, undiagnosed. When I was 9, a fraternity brother tortured a cat to death in my hometown. The details even now are beyond imagination. archive.is/xdmUL I was traumatized for years from reading the news story. The torturer? Now the head of the NRA.

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

This is the paper: Felix B. Muniz & David P. MacKinnon (21 May 2025): Three Approaches to Testing for Statistical Suppression, Multivariate Behavioral Research, DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2025.2483245

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

Yes. They are closely linked. Not really my area but I did read a nice paper on it recently. Suppression is a more general concept and whether they are identical depends on your definition of suppression.

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

I just wrote a short blog post on effect sizes for simple mediation. Not a topic usually write about but it was prompted by something I read that sent me to check the literature and down a bit of a rabbit hole. psychologicalstatistics.blogspot.com

psychologicalstatistics.blogspot.com

Psychological Statistics

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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

What can history teach us about what happens when a populist strongman with an idiosyncratic taste for low interest rates undermines central bank independence?

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Griff "Grza" Sombke @grza.bsky.social · 22/11/2025

The teenager told officers he was a U.S. citizen, but an officer broke the car’s driver’s side window and detained him. In a video, the boy can be heard telling an officer that he is a citizen, to which the officer replies, “Get out of the car” and “I don’t care.” www.oregonlive.com/portland/202...

oregonlive.com

High school senior, a U.S. citizen, detained by ICE in Oregon

The 17-year-old was held more than five hours Friday in an ICE facility, his brother said.

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"Write here, write now!" @sentwrite.bsky.social · 22/10/2025

Paper in Language and Cognition with @marktorrance.bsky.social and @seriousstats.bsky.social We show that semantic contrast shapes timing of pre-planning in speech and writing. doi.org/10.1017/lang... If you're into how context shapes how we plan language, check it out!

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

Last but not least, paracetamol is probably the safest painkiller in pregnancy and untreated fevers can themselves cause serious health problems for mothers and babies. (5)

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

At best the evidence is mixed. Importantly, the review says in its conclusions: "observational limitations preclude definitive causation". (4)

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

Main evidence is a review study of I think nearly 50 studies with 100,000 participants. However there is a Swedish cohort study with nearly 3 million participants showing no effect and lack of dose response. (3)

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

First it's well understood that most if not all the rise in autism diagnosis can be explained by earlier diagnosis, wider awareness and broadening of diagnostic criteria. For example most of the recent growth is in women. For this to be due to Paracetamol would be wildly implausible. (2)

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 22/09/2025

It's reported that the US government is going to announce they've found the cause of autism (Spoliers: They almost certainly haven't even found one new potential cause). Paracetemol (Tylenol) during pregnancy is the supposed culprit. This seems unlikely to put it mildly. (1)

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Adam Schwarz @adamjschwarz.bsky.social · 18/09/2025

Trump: "When you have a network, and you have evening shows, and all they do is hit Trump... They're not allowed to do that."

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Stand Up for Science! @standupforscience.net · 17/09/2025

Monarez agrees that vaccines are safe and effective, and outlines her worries about an anti-vax world. "I believe that preventable diseases would return, and our children will be harmed by things they do not need to be harmed by." She affirms that vaccines are a major public health advancement.

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Daniel P. Moriarity @dpmoriarity.bsky.social · 17/09/2025

I really miss when the stats blogs I read had light-hearted examples like "here is the concept of a multi-variate outlier explained through beer" rather than "here is another example of a logical fallacy being shared by the head of a national health agency"

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Ruth Ann Crystal @drruth.bsky.social · 06/09/2025

Return-on-investment was $60 - $475 for every $1 invested in COVID vaccines in their first year, making them one of the most cost-effective public health measures in history. buff.ly/lfdINel #medsky #pedsky 🛟😷🧪💸

A cartoon vaccine with a orange shield. Background is pink and green. We see money bags of dollars and euros.

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Fred Oswald @foswald.bsky.social · 26/08/2025

as editor, I'm actually signing the petition myself :) == Adopt Registered Reports at Psychological Methods - Sign the Petition! chng.it/wszLWM4KPX == e.g., look forward to exploring options for preregistration for the journal @apajournals.bsky.social @akmontoya.bsky.social

chng.it

Sign the Petition

Adopt Registered Reports at Psychological Methods

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"Write here, write now!" @sentwrite.bsky.social · 19/08/2025

When do we actually think about what we want to say and what words to use? Interestingly our mind does a lot of this work while we're writing text. In fact, we demonstrated (psycnet.apa.org/record/2026-...) that even young writers often don't stop before starting a new sentence. Way to multitask!

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Thom Baguley @seriousstats.bsky.social · 03/09/2025

Drug (opioid) deaths and maybe car accidents might vary a lot by states also (in the accident category). Homicide probably a factor too (but behind the other causes I'd guess).

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Jeremy Berg @jeremymberg.bsky.social · 01/09/2025

Yes, it was carefully hidden in the New England Journal of Medicine. Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine (www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1... ) 1/2

A graph comparing COVID incidence after the Pfizer vaccine compared to placebo

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