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Rob McClelland

@rob-mcclelland.bsky.social
209 followers 214 following 61 posts

Senior Fellow Tax Policy Center. Previously chief Price and Index Number Division, BLS; Senior analyst CBO. Opinions my own.

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Reposted by Rob McClelland
Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
NEW: US CPI inflation rose to 3.8% year-on-year in data released this morning, hitting the highest level since 2023 while increasing 0.6% month-on-month Core CPI inflation rose to 2.8% year-on-year, increasing 0.4% month-on-month
a graph of CPI pct
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
On Aug 1, tariff rates are scheduled to rise to historic highs. average tariffs on women’s clothing will rise to 48 percent, wine to 20 percent, and toys to nearly 50 percent. taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/too-m...
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Rob McClelland @rob-mcclelland.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
New from my colleague John Wong and myself: in August tariffs on women's clothing will rise to 48%, Men's to 39%. Dolls, toys and games will be tariffed at nearly 50%. The effect may be delayed, but eventually these rates will very likely hurt the economy taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/too-m...
taxpolicycenter.org
Too Many Goods Are About To Face Historically High Tariffs
Should historically high tariff rates go into effect on a wide range of goods, consumer prices will rise, employment and incomes in downstream industries will fall, and profits will shrink. The value ...
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Rob McClelland @rob-mcclelland.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
What would the One Big Beautiful Bill Act do to charitable giving? Elena Patel and I try answer that question www.brookings.edu/articles/one...
brookings.edu
One Big, Beautiful Bill complicates charitable giving
Changes to charitable giving deductions will make it the system more complicated without increasing donations.
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Rob McClelland @rob-mcclelland.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
The 15th annual TPC-IRS conference on tax administration takes place this Thursday. It's not too late to register. www.irs.gov/statistics/f...
irs.gov
Fifteenth annual IRS-TPC Joint Research Conference on Tax Administration | Internal Revenue Service
The Internal Revenue Service and the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center plan to co-sponsor their 15th annual tax administration research conference next year. It will be held on June 12, 2025, at the U...
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AEA Information @aeainformation.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
Congratulations to newly elected Distinguished Fellows Susan M. Collins, Barbara M. Fraumeni, Joseph P. Newhouse, and Timothy Taylor. #econsky aeaweb.org/about-aea/ho...
aeaweb.org
Distinguished Fellows
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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
More on Stantcheva, who btw is an immigrant from Bulgaria. www.imf.org/en/Publicati....
imf.org
Getting Into People's Heads
Marjorie Henriquez profiles Harvard’s Stefanie Stantcheva, who uses surveys and experiments to uncover the invisible in traditional economic data
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Rob McClelland @rob-mcclelland.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
Well, I'll try
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Rob McClelland @rob-mcclelland.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
www.wxyz.com/news/chaos-u...
wxyz.com
'Chaos': UAW Local 600 reacts to Cleveland-Cliffs Dearborn Works layoffs
United Auto Workers leaders say they were blindsided by the announcement of layoffs at Cleveland-Cliffs Dearborn Works, a plant that supplies steel for the auto industry.
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Rob McClelland @rob-mcclelland.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
Regardless, I wouldn't count on the uncertainty disappearing on April 2.
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Rob McClelland @rob-mcclelland.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
Continued uncertainty as to what will happen on April 2. Once these plans are announced, other nation's retaliatory tariffs will likely follow. And, of course, tariffs announced on April 2 could later change. www.msn.com/en-us/money/...
msn.com
MSN
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
"Liberation" from what? A strong economy and stable business environment? www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
washingtonpost.com
Trump aides prep new tariffs on imports worth trillions for ‘Liberation Day’
The administration has already unnerved investors with duties on Canada, Mexico and China. Advisers are readying a bigger move.
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Rob McClelland @rob-mcclelland.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
In the short run, Americans will face some combination of higher costs, higher unemployment, and lower profits/reduced values of retirement accounts. In the long run, universal tariffs that try to force all economic activity to "retreat to Fortress America" will likely lead to widespread hardship.
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Andrew Ho @andrewdeanho.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
Research with restricted-use data is more precise, powerful, and relevant. Faculty and staff will be working through the weekend to answer important research questions before we no longer can. This is not normal, necessary, or efficient.
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 06/03/2025
"Quite simply and astonishingly, this is dismantling the National Park Service as we know it, ranger by ranger and brick by brick.” This is myopic, execrable policy, which is why vast majorities of Republicans and Democrats do not want it. Poll data—> www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2025/2/...
npca.org
Parks Group Warns of Dismantling of the National Park Service
"Quite simply and astonishingly, this is dismantling the National Park Service as we know it, ranger by ranger and brick by brick." - Theresa Pierno, NPCA's President and CEO
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Birdman @birdman100.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
Mathematica. Urban. Child trends. Abt. Among many others Are getting smashed. As are government analysts who often have phd or masters. The whole field is likely to get smashed. And u say will take decades to rebuild. :(. And ironically its very bipartisan. For decades. Until now.
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Stephen Nuñez @socio-steve.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
I wrote a short blog post about the tragedy currently unfolding in the evaluation industry. Trump is destroying vital research capacity and decades of instructional knowledge for pocket change. 1/x rooseveltinstitute.org/blog/the-irr...
rooseveltinstitute.org
The Irreparable Damage Being Done to Federal Policy Research and Evaluation - Roosevelt Institute
Though their goals obviously differed, Republican and Democratic administrations have for decades relied on the work of social scientists both within and outside the government to conduct research on ...
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Rob McClelland @rob-mcclelland.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
You can't grow the economy by retarding economic activity
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
110 of 363 Taxpayer Assistance Centers and 5 of 10 call centers are going to be shut down, per a meeting that just happened at the IRS. During tax season.
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Rob McClelland @rob-mcclelland.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
Nothing has happened yet, but even unsuccessful attempts to alter government statistics would be deeply troubling.
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
Vance is threatening to isolate Russia from the global economy and Trump is promising to isolate the United States from the global economy.
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Rob McClelland @rob-mcclelland.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
More tariff threats www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...
reuters.com
Exclusive: Trump told GOP lawmakers he plans to announce reciprocal tariffs as early as Friday - sources
President Donald Trump told Republican lawmakers that he plans to announce reciprocal tariffs as early as Friday, two sources familiar with the plans told Reuters.
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Rob McClelland @rob-mcclelland.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
The Tax Policy Center estimates that the change in revenues (2025-2035) from tariffs on imports from Mexico & Canada starting March 1 and on China starting Feb 4 would raise $1.2 trillion, of which $328 billion comes from tariffs on imports from China taxpolicycenter.org/model-estima...
taxpolicycenter.org
T25-0016 – Impose Additional Tariffs on Imported Goods From China, Canada, and Mexico
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Elisa Ramirez McClelland @ctthumper.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
Tariffs...
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
Wow, that was fast. Irving Energy, company that provides propane/fuel oil customers in New England, says it will pass on the full 10% tariff cost to all their customers immediately (reposting with fixed figure - meant to say 10%, not 30%)
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Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
A new analysis from the Tax Policy Center estimates that imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico would reduce after-tax incomes by nearly 1% in 2026, costing the average household the equivalent of $930 in lost income. taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/25-pe...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 01/02/2025
Measured policy uncertainty up, waiting for tariffs econbrowser.com/archives/202... #econsky #tariffs
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Rob McClelland @rob-mcclelland.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
The Tax Policy Center estimates that a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada would reduce after-tax incomes by about 1 percent and that imports would fall by 40% by 2026. taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/25-pe...
taxpolicycenter.org
A 25 Percent Tariff on Canadian and Mexican Imports Would Reduce Consumers’ Average After-Tax Income by 1 Percent
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Rob McClelland @rob-mcclelland.bsky.social · 23/01/2025
On Tuesday Trump said he would impose a 10% tariff on China. But in 2023, the U.S. collected $44.4 billion in duties on $420.8 billion of imports, for an effective rate of 10.5%. A 10% tariff on those imports would have collected only $42.1 billion.
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 05/01/2025
To a first approximation, every domestic policy problem is a housing policy problem
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Kimberly Clausing @kclausing.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
Economists, if you’re at ASSA meetings, come join me, @jasonfurman.bsky.social, and other panelists as we discuss the Trumpian economic agenda, tomorrow (Jan 3) in San Francisco. Hilton Plaza A 10:15.
ore.as
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Christian Weller @profcew.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
Going to #ASSA2025 and looking forward to catching up with old friends. We have a great LERA session on unions and racial/ethnic equality on Sat. at 2:30. Maybe I'll see you there.
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Tim Bresnahan @timobres.bsky.social · 28/12/2024
Graduate fellowship opportunity at NBER. Application deadline 1/16. Comes with community and mentorship. @heidiwilliams.bsky.social @mclem.org www.nber.org/graduate-fel...
nber.org
Graduate Fellowships on Fiscal and Economic Effects of Innovation and Productivity Policies
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Rafe Meager (they/them) @economeager.bsky.social · 28/12/2024
this abstract is INSANE
We estimate productivity growth in England from 1250 to 1870. Real wages over this period were heavily influenced by plague-induced swings in the population. Our estimates account for these Malthusian dynamics. We find that productivity growth was zero prior to 1600. Productivity growth began in 1600—almost a century before the Glorious Revolution. Thus, the onset of productivity growth preceded the bourgeois institutional reforms of 17th century England. We estimate productivity growth of 2% per decade between 1600 and 1800, increasing to 5% per decade between 1810 and 1860. Much of the increase in output growth during the Industrial Revolution is explained by structural change—the falling importance of land in production—rather than faster productivity growth. Stagnant real wages in the 18th and early 19th centuries—“Engel’s Pause”—is explained by rapid population growth putting downward pressure on real wages. Yet, feedback from population growth to real wages is sufficiently weak to permit sustained deviations from the “iron law of wages” prior to the Industrial Revolution.
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News Eye @newseye.bsky.social · 24/12/2024
Have a marvellous Christmas, Bluesky folks!🎄 Thoughts & prayers with those caught up in an unfolding situation in LA.
A fake TV Breaking News headline which reads: Shots fired at Nakatomi Plaza
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 05/12/2024
Attending #ASSA2025? Want to know how to navigate your options with respect to hotels, food, & sessions given SF hotel workers' strike? @shirkandsteal.bsky.social @jennifercohen.bsky.social & I have you covered. Blog w/sign up for email updates. #EconSky aaronsojourner.org/hotel-worker...
Are you planning to attend the 2025 ASSA meetings in San Francisco? All ASSA activities have been planned for three ASSA headquarters hotels. Employees at two of these hotels – the Hilton San Francisco Union Square and the San Francisco Marriott Union Square – are on strike and asking people to not meet, eat, nor sleep in the hotels. At the third headquarters hotel – the Parc 55 by Hilton – employees voted to authorize their leaders to call a strike at any moment. 

Yesterday, ASSA stated that allied associations can move planned sessions to alternative physical locations in San Francisco at their own expense and ASSA will facilitate updating of location information within their program system. This means there is a path to meaningful participation in the conference without crossing picket lines.

Did you book your housing through ASSA? If so, then you are booked at a hotel where workers are either currently on strike, where they authorized a strike, or where the union says there’s a real risk employees will be on strike in early January. All the ASSA’s preferred hotels for housing are in one of these three categories, as detailed below. The hotel workers union has asked people not to patronize these hotels.

What can a social scientist do as we face a conflict between our desires to:

participate in the ASSA annual meeting in San Francisco taking place at hotels—both for meeting space and lodging—where workers currently are on strike or at risk of striking,
respect the people employed by the hotels and their request of each of us to not meet, sleep, or eat in striking hotels as part of their wider local and national campaign to lift the industry’s job quality?
This blog walks through background and different strategies available to each of us.
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Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in November and were up 2.7 percent from a year earlier. "Core" prices, excluding food and fuel, rose 0.3 percent from October and 3.3 percent from a year ago. #NumbersDay Data: www.bls.gov/news.release... Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12...
bls.gov
Consumer Price Index Summary - 2024 M10 Results
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Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
Charts! Consumer price inflation picked up modestly in November. That's true by basically any measure -- headline or core, monthly or annualized. #NumbersDay #EconSky
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Washington Post Opinions @postopinions.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
What will Republicans prioritize when they regain their government trifecta next month? A tax overhaul? Energy production? Border security? Nope, writes @crampell.bsky.social. "The GOP’s first order of business: getting rid of math." wapo.st/3ZmsKXu
wapo.st
Opinion | The GOP’s top priority for 2025: Repeal the laws of arithmetic
Republicans are reinventing math to justify extending pricey Trump tax policies.
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 06/12/2024
Many great takeaways on increasing families' access to high quality child care from multiple state researcher-agency partnerships in this set of briefs published @urbaninstitute.bsky.social. www.urban.org/policy-cente...
urban.org
Key Takeaways 2019–24
Explore key takeaways from the multiyear Child Care Policy Research Partnerships between state child care agencies and researchers across the US
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
obviously a localized personal example but US statistical agencies have steadily only gotten better at their jobs over time, meanwhile trust in them have faltered because sitting US senators weren’t calling normal annual jobs revisions government propaganda in 1992
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Congressional Budget Office finds that allowing 2017 tax cuts to expire as scheduled would benefit the economy in the long term. Higher marginal tax rates would hamper growth through 2028, but lower deficits would improve growth starting in 2029 www.cbo.gov/publication/...
cbo.gov
How the Expiring Individual Income Tax Provisions in the 2017 Tax Act Affect CBO’s Economic Forecast | Congressional Budget Office
CBO’s economic forecast reflects current law, including the expiration, at the end of 2025, of some provisions of the 2017 tax act. CBO analyzed how the expiration of those provisions affected project...
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Rob McClelland @rob-mcclelland.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Donald Trump has proposed a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on China. Recently my colleagues at TPC and I published a brief that provides some context. taxpolicycenter.org/briefs/tarif...
taxpolicycenter.org
Tariffs, Trade, China, and the States
Although tariffs currently constitute a very small share of US federal revenue, both President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden increased their use, and Trump now proposes significantly expanding ...
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Adam @adamshap.bsky.social · 24/11/2024
The SF Fed has a new data indicators page providing the contributions by product category to CPI, thanks to @hamza-econ.bsky.social www.frbsf.org/research-and...
frbsf.org
CPI Inflation Contributions from Goods and Services - San Francisco Fed
CPI Inflation Contributions from Goods and Services updates price changes of the typical goods and services that U.S. households consume to understand their role in driving changes in overall consumer...
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
Trump, tariffs and prices / GS
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Adam @adamshap.bsky.social · 13/11/2024
The rent CPI level represents the prices of existing leases---this includes households who are not paying "market rate" rents As landlords slowly increase rents to catch up to market rates, so will the rent CPI. Current rent CPI inflation therefore represents a “catch-up” to market price levels
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Rob McClelland @rob-mcclelland.bsky.social · 01/10/2024
Switching from a charitable deduction to a matching grant would even the playing field by providing the same incentive to everyone, even non-filers. www.philanthropy.com/article/the-...
philanthropy.com
The Case for Doing Away With the Charitable Deduction
A tax code tweak that replaces the deduction with matching grants could encourage everyone to donate.
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Chloe N East (she/her) @chloeneast.bsky.social · 09/04/2024
If you know of good qualitative work (or quantitative) about barriers to work faced by low-income adults please send it my way! Thanks!
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Dina Pomeranz @dinapomeranz.bsky.social · 04/10/2023
What many people don't know: recent decades have seen incredible reductions in poverty. The poverty rate has *never before* been this low in human history. What new data is now revealing: after the setback from Covid, poverty reduction now continues! #econsky t.co/RJEfQE7PRm
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