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Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social
5.9K followers 745 following 1.7K posts

Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, University of Wisconsin, and Blogger at Econbrowser. All views are my own.

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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 1h
Personal income trajectory revised up... with slight decline in August; employment path continues to diverge from output measures #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"The Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening"... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
10 year yields are up, but so are those for maturities > 4 months... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
10 year above 5.2% #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Jeff Frankel: "Oligarchy is a symptom, not a cause" #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The capex picture of 2001 looks different now vs. what it did at the time #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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The Washington Post @washingtonpost.com · 24/09/2026
Nearly 170,000 pounds of meat products are being recalled because they were falsely labeled as having gone through federal inspection. The affected products were produced before Sept. 22 and may have false USDA inspection labels that say “EST. 1363.”
washingtonpost.com
Nearly 170,000 pounds of raw meat recalled for false inspection labels
The affected products were produced before Sept. 22 and may have false USDA inspection labels that say “EST. 1363.”
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
10 year rates (heck all rates) rising, nominal, real #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Refiner cap util at 97.5% for week ending 9/11 #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
2/n: Banning diesel exports would *temporarily* provide some price relief for most of the country, but not for New England. Because pipelines don't run that far north, PADD 1A has to import large amounts of diesel, which means it's competing with a (structurally short diesel) Europe for barrels
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 22/09/2026
Lumaris was started by former Pew researchers to do state level surveys
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I'm not sure mfg employment is really rising... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The State of Working Wisconsin, 2026, fm High Road Strategy Center #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Gasoline, diesel prices up 3.7% and 3.9%, week/week econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
CNN etc. unbanned by 9/30?
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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 21/09/2026
U.S. household-income momentum (year-over-year change) turned negative in August, falling to −0.35%. Real median household income was unchanged over one month and down 1.2% over three months. Dashboard: motioresearch.com/dashboard/ #econsky
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Fed funds above or below Taylor rule implied target? #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Administration priority today: econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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jakemadtown.bsky.social @jakemadtown.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Hey, I was just looking at those numbers too! I think EJ is mixing up some cause and effect. The real reason is inflated margins, and a nice side order of writeoffs from Tax Scam 2.0. It ain't from more business. jakehasablog.blogspot.com/2026/09/more...
jakehasablog.blogspot.com
More reasons behind the profit boom of 2026
We know that as prices went up after war broke out in Iran last February, so did profits and we recently got more evidence of that with ...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Heritage Foundation's EJ Antoni points to corp mfg *aftertax* income surge as proof of mfg recovery #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
IP, mfg prodn below consensus, mfg declines #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Pictures of a diversification (fm official holdings of US Trsys) #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
GDPNow at 5.1% q/q AR for Q3, while GS at 2.3%; #FTxBooth 2026 q4/q4 f'cast at 2% #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Betting odds on a Republican Senate post-midterms collapses (the collapse starts right after US-Iran war begins, with fluctuations) #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Fed funds up, betting is on up by year's end, perhaps twice? #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Brent spot surges, implying further derivatives price increases #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Real retail sales rebound slightly above June peak (ex-gas station sales slightly below June peak) ##conSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 15/09/2026
Breaking News: President Trump said he would cancel a $257 million renovation of the Kennedy Center if his name wasn’t added to the building.
nyti.ms
Trump Fights Back After Judge Says Name Must Stay Off Kennedy Center
President Trump threatened to cancel a $257 million renovation of the performing arts venue if the judge’s ban was not overturned.
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
CBO on US-Iran War costs (ex-base repair); 2026 PCE defl inflation 0.5 ppts higher than baseline #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Willem Thorbecke on Chinese exchange rates and export behavior - does the dominant currency pricing paradigm apply? #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Why did oil futures prices decline on Friday, despite Houthi advances/Yanbu news #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Impact of "news" re: core CPI #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
@uwmadison.bsky.social @uwlafollette.bsky.social "market based solutions to societal challenges" opening, apply by 10/18/2026 econbrowser.com/archives/202...
econbrowser.com
UW Madison Public Affairs: Market Based Solutions to Societal Challenges | Econbrowser
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
September (prelim) sentiment continues downward trend, as inflation expectations rise #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Wages not keeping up with prices #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Change since 2/27 in yields... run big deficits at full employment long enough, and bash legal underpinnings of government credibility hard enough... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
It's almost as if...the IMF is not a purely technocratic institution & the domestic political interests of its major shareholders affect its policies & decisions...
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Nick Fleisher @nickfleisher.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
It is a nonstop outrage and embarrassment to be represented by Ron Johnson
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Ten year Trsy yields continue to rise #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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EconReporter @econreporter.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Same
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Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
No matter how much they try, conservatives can't deliever on their male breadwinner economy. New post. Industries that already employ women are growing faster, indeed they are the only thing growing overall and still the majority effect since November. newsletter.mikekonczal.com/p/why-are-wo...
newsletter.mikekonczal.com
Why Are Women Over 100% of Jobs Gained Under Trump’s Second Term?
All their effort at a gender vibe shift is in service of a plan that is failing on its own terms.
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Do you believe real rates are high because of incipient rapid growth, per Miran? (Simple) intertemporal optimization vs. empirics #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
If Brent averages $100 in September, then expect diesel to rise by another approx 8% - truly a Golden Age! #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
With very high interest rates, why is nonresidential fixed investment so high? AI capex as MEI shifter #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
No respite from policy uncertainty #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Trump threatens the Fed... with cutting off int'l trade. #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
The White House Budget Office (kinda) released the Mid-Session Review today. It's the barest bones MSR ever, w almost no budget numbers, no deficit accounting (revs - spending) and, for the 1st time in history, I believe, no economic forecast. www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
#EconSky @clevelandfed.bsky.social econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Employment surges (establishment, household surveys) #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Trump policies don't seem to enhance Wisconsin exports #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
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