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Amni Rusli

@amnirusli.bsky.social
2.1K followers 2.9K following 680 posts

Quant, Economist. I write about the US monetary policy at eightateeight.substack.com and about trade at eighttradeeight.substack.com

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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
From my latest post
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
It’s never just “do what the rules tell you to do”, or just “do what your predecessors used to do”, or just “follow your instincts, do whatever you want”. It is always a combination of them.
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Reposted by Amni Rusli
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
New Post! What Waller Wishes eightateeight.substack.com/p/what-walle...
eightateeight.substack.com
What Waller Wishes
Because long-term interest rates can remain low only in a stable macroeconomic environment, these goals are often referred to as the dual mandate; that is, the Federal Reserve seeks to promote the two...
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
New Post! What Waller Wishes eightateeight.substack.com/p/what-walle...
eightateeight.substack.com
What Waller Wishes
Because long-term interest rates can remain low only in a stable macroeconomic environment, these goals are often referred to as the dual mandate; that is, the Federal Reserve seeks to promote the two...
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Reposted by Amni Rusli
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
New Post! What Warsh Withheld eightateeight.substack.com/p/what-warsh...
eightateeight.substack.com
What Warsh Withheld
Comments on Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
New Post! What Warsh Withheld eightateeight.substack.com/p/what-warsh...
eightateeight.substack.com
What Warsh Withheld
Comments on Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech
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Reposted by Amni Rusli
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
New post! The Curious Case of The Inverted Inflation Gap eightateeight.substack.com/p/the-curiou...
eightateeight.substack.com
The Curious Case of The Inverted Inflation Gap
“Haste still pays haste, and leisure answers leisure;
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
New post! The Curious Case of The Inverted Inflation Gap eightateeight.substack.com/p/the-curiou...
eightateeight.substack.com
The Curious Case of The Inverted Inflation Gap
“Haste still pays haste, and leisure answers leisure;
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
New Post! The Death of Forward Guidance: Why the Federal Reserve’s retreat from clear communication matters open.substack.com/pub/eightate...
open.substack.com
The Death of Forward Guidance
Why the Federal Reserve’s retreat from clear communication matters
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
There are established econometric tools, e.g. Markov regime-switching models, to distinguish transitory from persistent inflation shocks. Recent data place us on the borderline of a shift towards greater persistence.
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
There are established econometric tools, e.g. Markov regime-switching models, to distinguish transitory from persistent inflation shocks. Recent data place us on the borderline of a shift towards greater persistence.
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Greenspan was an avid consumer of data but even more valuable was his economic insights that stemmed from intuition rather than textbook interpretation of the data, although he personally saw himself as more of an analyst rather than an intuitive policymaker.
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Greenspan 2001 // From GS Archive
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Greenspan 1999 //From GS archive
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Greenspan was an avid consumer of data but even more valuable was his economic insights that stemmed from intuition rather than textbook interpretation of the data, although he personally saw himself as more of an analyst rather than an intuitive policymaker.
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
Warsh’s preference for a “less is more” approach to communication is tolerable for now, given that the balance of risks has tilted, clear to all and sundry, towards inflation. However, this latitude will disappear once the risks to the dual mandate return to a more even balance.
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Are we back to Montagu Norman, who viewed monetary policy as an “arcane and esoteric art, best practiced out of public view”? “Never explain, never excuse!” was his motto. #Fed #Warsh
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Are we back to Montagu Norman, who viewed monetary policy as an “arcane and esoteric art, best practiced out of public view”? “Never explain, never excuse!” was his motto. #Fed #Warsh
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Inflation expectations: stable, well-anchored slightly above target
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
From my post
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
From my post
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Reposted by Amni Rusli
Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
New Post! Kevin Warsh and The Fate of The Fed #EconSky open.substack.com/pub/eightate...
open.substack.com
Kevin Warsh and The Fate of The Fed
When I first encountered Kevin Warsh’s public remarks, particularly his April 2025 IMF lecture hosted by the G30, titled “Commanding Heights: Central Banks at a Crossroads,” I was struck by the florid...
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
New Post! Kevin Warsh and The Fate of The Fed #EconSky open.substack.com/pub/eightate...
open.substack.com
Kevin Warsh and The Fate of The Fed
When I first encountered Kevin Warsh’s public remarks, particularly his April 2025 IMF lecture hosted by the G30, titled “Commanding Heights: Central Banks at a Crossroads,” I was struck by the florid...
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
From my post #EconSky
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
Might appeal to some loconundrum.aaronc.cc
loconundrum.aaronc.cc
Loconundrum
A daily game: can you guess the UK rail station?
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
New post! Key Considerations for Monetary Policymakers Facing Economic Shocks open.substack.com/pub/eightate...
open.substack.com
Key Considerations for Monetary Policymakers Facing Economic Shocks
Recovering from the Covid-related economic shock, and not yet having fully absorbed the Trump tariff shock, we must now contend with the Iran war.
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
From my post
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
ICYMI open.substack.com/pub/eightate...
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
New post! Key Considerations for Monetary Policymakers Facing Economic Shocks open.substack.com/pub/eightate...
open.substack.com
Key Considerations for Monetary Policymakers Facing Economic Shocks
Recovering from the Covid-related economic shock, and not yet having fully absorbed the Trump tariff shock, we must now contend with the Iran war.
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
😔
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
☺️
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Warsh can conceal his bias so long as the risks remain balanced between the mandates. However, once the risks tilt towards inflation, he’ll face a critical decision: whether to vote in favour of immediately addressing inflation risk, or to ignore it for as long as he can to avoid Trump’s wrath 😬
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Mood
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Powell should stay on
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Warsh
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Warsh
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
Making Nasi lemak in the rice cooker www.youtube.com/watch?v=f64n...
youtube.com
Kenapa Nasi Lemak Cepat Keras? Cara Masak Betul Guna Rice Cooker
YouTube video by Che Nom
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
The Fed is answerable to Congress #Powell
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Further loosening of US #FCI Financial Conditions Index #EconSky
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
MS #EconSky
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
MS #EconSky
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Tech titans lined up for Trump’s second inauguration. Now they’re even richer
giftarticle.ft.com
Tech titans lined up for Trump’s second inauguration. Now they’re even richer
Silicon Valley bosses who lined up behind the US president for his inauguration have fared well under his administration
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... EU readies €93bn tariffs in retaliation for Trump’s Greenland threat
giftarticle.ft.com
EU readies €93bn tariffs in retaliation for Trump’s Greenland threat
Europe could also threaten to restrict US companies’ market access in run-up to crunch talks at Davos
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
How much is genius worth? open.substack.com/pub/artjourn...
open.substack.com
How much is genius worth?
The value of the Renaissance masters' work: Leonardo, Michelangelo, and Raphael
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
GS
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Timely Powell (from my post)
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Do markets care about Fed independence?
giftarticle.ft.com
Do markets care about Fed independence?
They will eventually
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Justice department’s probe into Jay Powell galvanises Fed leaders to repel Donald Trump’s attacks
giftarticle.ft.com
Justice department’s probe into Jay Powell galvanises Fed leaders to repel Donald Trump’s attacks
Federal Reserve chair could stay on board beyond this year in effort to protect US central bank’s independence
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Amni Rusli @amnirusli.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Firstly, don’t judge Fed independence’s importance by market behaviour. Jeopardising it invites severe consequences that emerge sooner or later through multiple channels. Secondly, the US lived this nightmare before, when Nixon pressured Fed Chair Arthur Burns to ease monetary policy through
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