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Chair Warsh's preferred (?) inflation signal measure picking up a little but remains muted compared to other measures. Trimmed mean PCE which throws out extremes was a 2.5% annual rate in April and 2.3% over the last year.

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Some personal observations about education this past year--which are broadly applicable to everything AI this past year. www.thecrimson.com/article/2026...

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My thoughts for the Class of 2026. And all I can think about for them--and future classes--is AI and how this was the last class that had any of their college experience without substantially capable and widely accessible AI. www.thecrimson.com/article/2026...

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Revised GDP for Q2 suggests the first half of the year was even weaker than we thought. Growth was 1.4% at an annual rate but this overstates it because end of (most) of the shutdown led to payback from Q1. For the two quarters was 1.1% annual rate.

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 23/05/2026

Core PCE inflation in April was below expectations while still very high. Annual rates: 1 month: 2.9% 3 months: 3.8% 6 months: 3.8% 12 months: 3.3%

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I've been reading Zola's Les Rougon-Macquart novels on and off, each is about a specific topic in Second Empire France and all have some striking contemporary parallels or relevant insights. Most recent was Money (or L'Argent) which is about private credit. www.goodreads.com/review/show/...

goodreads.com

See what your friends are reading

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

Good luck to Kevin Warsh! It's a tricky macroeconomic situation right now and I have every hope that he can help lead the Fed in navigating it.

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

"The faculty" & "the faculty who attend faculty meetings" can be very different. Harvard's grade cap passed 70-30 in an electronic vote that was open for a week. If the vote had been in the in person faculty meeting my (admittedly wild) guess is it would have lost 60-40.

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

I would never, ever have written this headline but I'm secretly thrilled the editor did. Harvard just capped A grades. David Laibson & I make the case that: 1. We need to use it to improve our education 2. Other universities should follow 3. Employers & grad admissions should take not.

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

New @nytopinion.nytimes.com lede: "I first met Jerome Powell, the departing head of the Federal Reserve, in late 2011. I was working for Barack Obama, and Mr. Powell was interviewing for a job as one of the Fed’s governors. He was not our first choice." The rest: www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/o...

Opinion | He Was Good at Steering the Fed, but He Was a Genius at Ignoring Trump’s Threats

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

I got this security question on an Adobe docusign. I was born in 1970 so I selected 1981. It marked my answer as wrong. Was I supposed to answer "None of the above"?

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

New NYT: CPI was super hot. But core was relatively tame. Two huge one-time factors raising inflation: tariffs & Iran. Fed can't solve them because they're not about excessive demand. Only Trump or time can solve. Now the usual wonky thread I didn't have time for before.

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

Inflation was very high in February (pre-Iran data). Core PCE annual rate: 12 months: 3.0% 6 months: 3.4% 3 months: 4.4% 1 month: 4.5% FWIW, much of the increase was highly concentrated and idiosyncratic.

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

Glad to have joined with a great group in stating the obvious: the U.S. is not facing fundamental international payment problems & tariffs are not required to deal with a “large and serious US balance-of-payments deficit.” So the administration's use of 122 for 10% tariffs wasn't justified.

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

Huge congratulations to @ludwigstraub.bsky.social for winning the Clark Medal. He is not only brilliant and original, he is also at a commensurate level in kindness and humility.

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

The EV tax credit that was terminated by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act was $7,500. The gas price increase--if sustained--is about $500 (per car per year).

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Can someone please do this for Boston? tbhochman.github.io/dc-waymo-das...

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

The job market continues to be reasonably good (for an aging workforce with low net immigration). 178K jobs in March, much a bounceback from strikes and weather that resulted in -133K (revised) in February. The three month average is 68K. Urate ticked down to 4.3%.

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Reposted by Jason Furman

DemCatsGT 💙✌️🍩⚾️🇺🇸🇨🇦🇮🇪🇺🇦 @demcatsgt.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

If you have access to the NY Times, this is an interesting article on manufacturing jobs. @jasonfurman.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/04/02/o...

Opinion | Every President Tries It. It Never Works.

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

Four theses on tariff impacts: 1. Evidence clearly shows they've added 0.5-1.0pp to inflation. Evidence consistent with them subtracting from growth. And no evidence they've done anything good for manufacturing or trade deficits (but they have raised revenue).

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Chad P. Bown @chadpbown.com · 02/04/2026

Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs have not created manufacturing jobs. Smart economic strategy would stop measuring success by the number of assembly lines reopened & start focusing on what raises living standards: productivity, affordability and overall economic growth. by @jasonfurman.bsky.social

Opinion | Every President Tries It. It Never Works.

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Chris Mehl @chrismehl7.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

Thursday Data: Comparing hourly earnings across several sectors. @jasonfurman.bsky.social @nytimes.com

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

My @nytopinion.nytimes.com piece discusses the failures of Trump's strategy to create manufacturing jobs--but puts it in the broader context of the previous failures to achieve this goal and why it isn't the right goal to start with. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/02/o...

Opinion | Every President Tries It. It Never Works.

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

On his terrific Substack @pkrugman.bsky.social has oil scenarios. Is basic economics. But the market thinks ~50% of the probability mass is below the lowest value in this table, ~20% is above the middle and ~0% is above the top. Why the disconnect? paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-oil-cr...

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

We were beyond thrilled to welcome Jay Powell to Ec10 today for a conversation with my co-teacher David Laibson and an excellent set of questions from our students. Here's the class photo. Link to the talk in the next.

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One thing I enjoy at the NYT is responding to some of the reader comments (sadly only a tiny fraction), you can read it here. A number of other authors do the same so look out for them when you see the author photo in the comment box. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/18/o...

Opinion | If You Hate Trump’s Economy, I Have News for You

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Remember when oil topped $150/barrel in the wake of the 2011 Libya strikes? And stayed above that price for most of the next 2 yrs? OK, you may not remember because you probably weren't thinking about oil in 2026 prices back then. But if you were that's what you would have seen.

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The FOMC's forecast revisions were tiny compared to the images we're seeing from the Middle East.

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

New piece in @nytopinion.nytimes.com arguing that the economy since Trump took office looks an awful lot like the economy in the year before he took office. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/18/o...

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The PCE-based ecumenical underlying inflation measure was 3.2% in January. This is the median of 24 numbers: 8 concepts measured over 3, 6 and 12 months.

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

January was another hot month for PCE inflation (we're getting these data two weeks later than usual due to shutdown). Annual rates for core PCE: 4.5% 3.7% 3.1% 3.1%

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

Fourth quarter GDP revised down to a 0.7% annual rate (originally 1.4%). Broad story still consumption reasonably strong, investment mixed and huge volatility in net exports. And shutdown subtracted ~1pp from growth, something that will be added back in Q1.

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

Over the yr through February we saw large price increases (e.g., meat +8.6% & electricity +4.8%) & declines (eggs -42.1% & gas -5.6%). This type of dispersion may seem difficult to manage. It's also normal. If anything, it is a bit less than the median dispersion since 1990.

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

A relatively tame CPI for February which is, of course, the before times. Annual rates for core: 1 month: 2.6% 3 months: 3.0% 6 months: 2.3% 12 months: 2.5%

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Frank Webster 💙 @fjowebster.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

The Wealth of Nations - 250 years today "imports are source of real benefits to consumers & trade expands the division of labor, raising productivity." "kept the focus where... it belonged: on improving the lives of ordinary people." @jasonfurman.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/o...

Opinion | This Is the Moment Adam Smith Has Been Waiting For

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New York Times Opinion @nytopinion.nytimes.com · 09/03/2026

On the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s most important book, the right reduces him to “laissez-faire above all,” writes Jason Furman. Liberals “dismiss him as a highbrow spokesman for naked, antisocial greed. The truth in both cases is more interesting.”

nyti.ms

Opinion | Why You Should Read Adam Smith

The news is good. Really.

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John Navas ⛵🌉 @jnavas.com · 09/03/2026

At a moment when faith in markets is fraying & faith in governments is strained, Smith’s message is neither to worship the invisible hand nor to wish it away. It is to discipline power, defend competition & keep focus where he always insisted it belonged: on improving the lives of ordinary people. 💯

Opinion | This Is the Moment Adam Smith Has Been Waiting For

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Jason Furman @jasonfurman.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

Happy 250th birthday to Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations! Some thoughts from me (more later). www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/o...