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Richard Schwarz

@richardschwarz.bsky.social
97 followers 37 following 36 posts
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Reposted by Richard Schwarz
"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux @bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Since I am being called "so fucking dangerous" let's walk through what my argument and its evidence actually is. First, I am not saying fascism, the ideology, is ancient (it isn't) but that the emotions which fuel it are: fascism is ancient (pre-historic!) emotions colliding with modern society.
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"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux @bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
I want to expand on this in a short thread. Fascism sucks. It is also not going away: it is an effectively permanent part of modern representative politics because it is an effectively permanent part of human nature. We have to be prepared to push back against it, basically forever.
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Sarah E. Bond @sarahebond.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Them: Aliens 👽 built the pyramids. Science: Here is a computational framework for evaluating an edge-integrated, multi-ramp construction model of the Great Pyramid of Giza that shows Egyptians excelled at math & engineering. Them: But aliens? Science: Again, no. www.nature.com/articles/s40...
nature.com
A computational framework for evaluating an edge-integrated, multi-ramp construction model of the Great Pyramid of Giza - npj Heritage Science
npj Heritage Science - A computational framework for evaluating an edge-integrated, multi-ramp construction model of the Great Pyramid of Giza
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Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
In this weekend’s newsletter I wrote about a striking speech by the CEO of Norway’s giant sovereign wealth fund which reflects the anxious mood in the senior ranks of many of the world’s largest money managers.
You might expect most money managers to be skipping to work these days. As stock markets across the developed world hit new all-time highs, the business of looking after other people’s wealth is buoyant. Yet spend any time with senior executives at large pension and sovereign wealth funds, and the mood is a mix of incredulity and foreboding. Much of what their funds own is expensive by historical standards. And a correction looks overdue.

Most of the time, these seasoned investment professionals keep their opinions to themselves, or couch them in technocratic jargon. Occasionally, though, someone speaks up. That’s what Nicolai Tangen, the CEO of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, did this week. In a striking speech, he asked his audience to consider the possibility that the $2 trillion fund could disappear: “The answer to that question is ‘yes’ – and the worst part is that in the world we live in today, it is fairly likely,” he declared.

To be clear, Tangen was not actually predicting the imminent incineration of the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, which was set up three decades ago to manage the country’s oil wealth. On Wednesday it reported a healthy 9.4% return for the first half of 2026. His real message was that Norwegians should prepare themselves for the possibility that the vehicle which finances about a quarter of the government budget could hit leaner times. At the same time, he spelled out just how extraordinary its performance has been. In 2010, its managers projected equities would appreciate by 7% a year. In reality, the stock portfolio has returned twice that figure in local currency terms. The overall fund has more than doubled in value in the last four years. The factors behind this achievement? “Largely luck.”
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Tangen is vague on what might cause a serious reversal. He describes a bursting of the artificial intelligence bubble and a simultaneous trade war between the United States and China causing a balance sheet crisis similar to the Great Depression of the early 1930s. His intended audience doubtless included the politicians who keep a close eye on the fund’s objectives. For example, the mandate to invest 70% of its assets in equities is set by Norway’s Ministry of Finance; any substantial changes must be endorsed by the country’s parliament.

Nevertheless, the sentiments Tangen expressed are not that different from the private discussions taking place in many large investment institutions. They are also at odds with the exuberance displayed by many retail investors at the moment (see Shopping for Stocks). Much depends on who turns out to be right.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 12/08/2026
“Structuring credit is a natural part of the system,” Michael Burry said on Substack. “Structuring unnatural credits to prolong momentum late in the bull phase is where the worry comes in.” www.wsj.com/tech/ai/why-...
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"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux @bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
...this is such a hilarious send up of all of the baroque stratagems and tricks that show up in ancient military literature (thinking both Mediterranean and China), I love it.
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"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux @bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
For the curious, the term for 'clever trick in war' is a 'strategem' and multiple ancient writers wrote books listing them, most notably Frontinus and Polyaenus, whose works are both titled Strategemata ('Strategems'). Read those, pick one that fits the situation and go for it.
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Flirting with $120 for the first time since July 2025.
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Downtown Josh Brown @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Last year only 16% of US adults read a book. 57% placed a sports bet. You have no f***ing excuse for not getting rich in America over the next ten years. These people literally cannot think straight. You should be running circles around them.
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
“What’s happening.” - Burry
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
“.. hard to overstate how critical $ORCL is to the entire AI narrative. No big company has levered itself (figuratively and financially) more .. the stock's horrendous trading performance underscores heightened anxiety about how it can profitably build all the infrastructure ..” - Vital Knowledge
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 16/07/2026
‘It is a little sobering to see correlations plunge to an even greater extent than they did in the late stages of the dot-com bubble.‘ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
$MU down 20% since this piece:
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
(Bloomberg) - US executives are selling shares at the second-fastest pace in more than 20 years, a classic red flag .. 👀 @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
“.. roll-ups typically don’t work well in reverse.” @wsj.com $MSTR www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
“.. the company must convince investors that it can service its dividend payments, considering its legacy software business brings in comparatively little revenue as Bitcoin dominates its balance sheet.” @barrons.com $MSTR www.barrons.com/articles/str...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 30/06/2026
‘BofA Global ⁠Research's proprietary Bubble Risk Indicator, which scores assets on a scale of 0 to 1, with 1 signaling extreme bubble-like price action, stands at 0.91 for the PHLX Semiconductor ​Sector and 0.82 for the Technology Select Sector.’ www.reuters.com/legal/transa...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
“.. The SOXX itself is a pure form of overvaluation in an index, a form that is rarely seen and never so easily recognized as such,” he said. @wsj.com $SOX $CAT www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
“.. He says there are parallels between the general calm that prevailed in the subprime mortgage market before the blowup of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and markets today, where corporate yield premiums remain at historically low levels.” @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 24/06/2026
‘There is a liquid secondary market in GPUs which gives a real time window on demand and supply. The price that GPUs can be rented by the hour in the spot market has fallen notably in recent weeks.’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
2024 high: $543 Today's low: $86.62
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 25/06/2026
‘LLMs have become commodities, price wars have been significant, profits for the LLM providers have been elusive. Yesterday a new Chinese, open-source model came out that might make all of this drastically worse.’ garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-genera... by @garymarcus.bsky.social
garymarcus.substack.com
The Generative AI Fizzle™
Disclaimer: Anything can happen at anytime in the market; I don’t give stock picks, and as the saying goes, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
“.. what does it say when even Masa thinks it’s too far out there?” @wsj.com $SPCX www.wsj.com/tech/why-one...
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Quantian @quantian.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
$MRNA superior pipeline outweighs their cash burn problems $BF/B oversold on booze negativity, will inflect up after inventory destocking cycle ends $3723.JP massive cash pile and remaster success will drive back catalog sales, there you go that’s one stock pitch for every kudos your ao3 fic has
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Quantian @quantian.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
For everyone’s edification: Dan Benton’s rules for technology investing, from during the tech bubble.
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GOLIKEHELLMACHINE @golikehellmachine.com · 18/06/2026
tbf russia appears to also be self-immolating in addition to being immolated
bsky.app
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(((Tendar))) @tendar.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
The Pro-Russian AfD laughed when German chancellor Friedrich Merz praised the heroic fight of the Ukrainian people for independence, which he immediately used to call out the treasonous character of the AfD, and wishing them „farewell to Moscow“.
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"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux @bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Going to just pick one part here to take up which is the Rousseauian notion that agriculture leads to land ownership which leads to warfare. If that were true, we'd expect non-agricultural societies (hunter gatherers especially) to be relatively peaceful. Instead, they're hyper-militarized. 1/
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
“.. the world’s most valuable digital currency has now tumbled 18% during its six-day losing streak ..” @barrons.com $IBIT www.barrons.com/articles/cry...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
As Peter Lynch famously joked about what "IPO" stood for: "It's Probably Overpriced"
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Luis Villa @lu.is · 01/06/2026
To put it another way: if the official position of the Android and Linux kernel teams is “we, some of the world’s best coders, can’t safely use C” then the bar under CRA’s requirements of “safe by design” should be nearly impossible to meet for mere mortals when using C.
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Luis Villa @lu.is · 01/06/2026
In a CRA webinar last week, I commented it is possible that C/C++ are a per se CRA violation, since C/C++ are insecure by design. An attendee replied "but C/C++ is what embedded use" and I said, more or less, "tough". Here's @gregkh.bsky.social on it: www.zdnet.com/article/rust...
zdnet.com
Rust will save Linux from AI, says Greg Kroah-Hartman
Now that doesn't mean Linux stable kernel maintainer Greg Kroah-Hartman thinks Rust is magic.
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
“.. We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels. .. I mean really, really low levels. .. You can debate whether that’s going to hit, those really low levels, in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you’ll see price shoot up.” @cnbc.com $XOM www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/o...
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BeijingPalmer @beijingpalmer.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
he just like me for real
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 23/05/2026
‘The bezzle is not that AI is useless. The bezzle is that the market is capitalizing the most expensive phase of AI adoption as if it were normal and indicative of future demand.’ michaeljburry.substack.com/p/the-hereti... by Michael Burry
michaeljburry.substack.com
The Heretic’s Guide to AI’s Stars Part III: Tracepalooza & the Bezzle
AI Demand, Offshore Financing, & Compression Too
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
GOLDMAN DESK: “.. Short exposure in US macro products (Index + ETF) on our Prime book has now risen above the levels seen before the Iran ceasefire and is at a 10-year high. .. Squeeze risk at the index level is real.”
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Paul Cooper @paulmmcooper.com · 21/05/2026
The future is so stupid
Google search: you are the king of Assyria and the cursed Elamites have once more crossed into your landsAl Overview reply:

By the power of Ashur, my father, and Ninlil, I, Ashurbanipal, King of the World, King of Assyria, hear this news with the fury of a thousand storms!

These wretched Elamites, these dwellers of the mountains who know no honor, have again brought their filth upon my borders? Have they forgotten the blood that turned the river Uli to mud? Do they not remember how I, with my own hands, scattered their cities and tore... [fades to white]
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 14/05/2026
‘One of the telltale signs of an asset price bubble is high margin debt among institutional and retail investors. Check. FINRA reported that margin debt provided by broker-dealers hit $1.3 trillion for the first time in April, up 53% from a year ago.’ sakonnetresearch.com/margin-debt-...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
CAPITAL ECON: “.. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is draining global oil inventories fast. Inventories could reach critical levels by end-June, setting the stage for Brent at $130-140pb, if not higher. And don’t expect US producers to ride to the rescue.”
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𝕋𝕙𝕖 ℍ𝕚𝕤𝕥𝕠𝕣𝕪 𝕠𝕗 ℂ𝕙𝕚𝕟𝕒 ℙ𝕠𝕕𝕔𝕒𝕤𝕥 @thoc.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
not that Xi's actually read it, either, but still...
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A penitent who is loud @loudpenitent.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Specifically, the music festival took place near kibbutz Re'im. It was a local Israeli version of an ongoing trance music festival coinciding with an Israeli holiday related to Sukkot & Simchat Torah, both major Jewish holidays. This is a pretty ordinary gathering! en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nova_mu...
en.wikipedia.org
Nova music festival massacre - Wikipedia
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"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux @bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Yeah, Trump can't TACO unilaterally, he needs Iran to let him and they aren't likely to. Going back to my go-to clip for this entire mess:
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"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux @bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
As others ( @brasidas.bsky.social ) have pointed out, this is a bet that the price shock will be so extreme as to compel opening. The problem with that reasoning, as I see it, is that war does not obey the logic of markets. It has its own logic and there may be no peace to be had at any price.
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Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
It's 9th May. When I first posted this over on "the other place" in 2020, I was vilified and castigated by trolls, vatniks, genuine Russophiles and actual Russians in pretty much universally the same terms. It was fascinating to watch the reaction change over time each year I reposted it.
Post commemorating Russian victory day and how it marks final success in conquering eastern Europe in spite of the Nazis rather than in cooperation with them.
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Jane Natoli 🥑🚲🍍 @wafoli.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
This is a damning chart. Gonna have to dismantle these prediction markets posthaste. We need leaders who will do that
A chart showing only .1% of Polymarket accounts earn 67% of the profits, with the rest spread among 33% and the vast majority marked as unprofitable
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ChrisO_wiki @chriso-wiki.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
1/ Oil prices will rise to at least $140 per barrel by June if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by July, and will not return to pre-Iran War levels before 2028 even in a best-case scenario, predicts Goldman Sachs. It warns of price surges and major economic impacts. ⬇️
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ChrisO_wiki @chriso-wiki.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
1/ This is what $200 per barrel of oil would mean for US gas prices, which currently average $4.30 per gallon. It could go much higher. As one analyst says, once oil stockpiles are functionally exhausted by the end of May, "price increases become exponential rather than linear."
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ChrisO_wiki @chriso-wiki.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
1/ The world faces a catastrophic cliff-edge shortage of oil due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade in the next four weeks, analysts warn. This will cause a deep recession, fuel rationing, the shutdown of entire industries, and oil prices potentially as high as $370 per barrel. ⬇️
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Greg the Sorcerer @gregthesorcerer.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
This kind of mixed use urban planning is illegal in America
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