Sign in

Rodrigo Castro Cornejo

@rcastrocornejo.bsky.social
187 followers 98 following 28 posts

Political Science Professor @UMassLowell @UML_CPO | Co-PI @ENEM_Mexico | Partisanship, polarization, public opinion & surveys (+🇲🇽 politics)

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Why did New Yorkers vote for @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social? We compare explanations based on populism, socialism and policy views using a survey of NYC likely voters. (@jacksantucci.bsky.social @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social @jjdyck.bsky.social) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/260830
013
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Drew Engelhardt @amengel.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
Partisanship is a useful decision-making heuristic. It's also a source for camaraderie among people of color. With @efrenpolipsy.bsky.social and team, we find PoC's sense of interdependence with each other shifts over time to fit their partisanship. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
12512
Rodrigo Castro Cornejo @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
** New UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion National Poll ** Presidential Approval = 39% GOP = 77%, Indep = 29%, Dems=5% White = 45%, Black = 16%, Hispanic = 36% 18-29 = 31%, 30-44 = 35%, 45-64 = 44%, 65+ = 41% More info: www.uml.edu/Research/pub...
021
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 22/03/2026
I thought this segment from Enten was bad use of polling www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-03-22...
gelliottmorris.com
CNN's "100% MAGA Trump approval" segment omits key nuance for virality
Plus, voters overwhelmingly oppose putting boots on the ground in Iran. Your weekly political data roundup for March 22, 2026.
1161030125
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 12/03/2026
NEW ISSUE - Latin American Politics and Society - Volume 68 - Issue 1 - cup.org/4rU8sSm w/ papers by @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social, @merikeblofield.bsky.social, @ecalvo68.bsky.social, @juangelvezf.bsky.social, @juancangulo.bsky.social & more
Maroon banner with the text "Latin American Politics and Society" and "New Issue" in white and yellow lettering. Decorative gold lines adorn the lower left corner.
043
Rodrigo Castro Cornejo @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Happy to share my new paper published in @LAPSjournal. Do voters take into account the deaths of family members and close friends when evaluating the government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic—particularly when that response is problematic or even negligent? bit.ly/3MBjEDW
022
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 20/02/2026
#OpenAccess from Latin American Politics and Society - “You have to hug, nothing is going to happen”: Partisan Retrospection, the COVID-19 Pandemic, and the Politics of Death in Mexico - cup.org/3ZHSdvb - @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social #FirstView #COVID19
Maroon background with the text "Latin American Politics and Society" in white and "#OpenAccess" in gold. Decorative gold swirl in the lower left corner.
011
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
far-right parties benefit electorally when the current government is on the left because there is an ideological shift to the right among the electorate when left-wing parties govern www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Left-Wing Governments and Far-Right Success | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core
Left-Wing Governments and Far-Right Success - Volume 56
153
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
JPLA @jplaeditor.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
‼️‼️ Check out our new first online article! 👇 Do Voters Reject Gay Candidates? We find no punishment among the general electorate: voters in Argentina reward gay candidates, while Chilean and Mexican citizens are indifferent. @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com
Do Voters Reject Gay Candidates? Partisanship, the Far-Right, and the Electoral Effect of Candidate Sexual Orientation in Latin America - Lautaro Cella, Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, 2026
In recent years, lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) rights and candidacies have expanded across Latin America. Some argue that such progress may prov...
056
Rodrigo Castro Cornejo @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
New publication with Lautaro Cella Do voters reject gay candidates in LA? We find that most voters in Chile, Arg, and Mex do not penalize them, but voters aligned with far-right parties (e.g. Republican Party in Chile) do reject them at the ballot box. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
042
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Alberto López Ortega @bertous.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
New publication with @turnbulldugarte.com in @psrm.bsky.social! 🧵 We study whether citizens’ liberal values are selective: do people support policies based on who promotes them? Short answer: Yes, and it's driven by ethnic out-group disidentification. (1/11) 👇 doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
18134
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Fabian Hutmacher @fabianhutmacher.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
Motivated reasoning is a well-understood phenomenon - or is it? In a new paper just published at @collabrapsychology.bsky.social we discuss three known unknowns. doi.org/10.1525/coll... Here is a 🧵
doi.org
Known Unknowns in Motivated Reasoning: A Closer Look at Three Open Questions
Motivated reasoning denotes the phenomenon that individuals are more likely to arrive at conclusions that they want to arrive at. Properly understanding this phenomenon requires at least three things:...
13617
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion @umlcpo.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
From our October National Poll @umlcpo.bsky.social Democrats=95%, Independents=68%, Republicans=29% 18-29=70%, 30-44=68%, 45-64=61%, 65+=58% More data: uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/default.aspx
011
Rodrigo Castro Cornejo @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
From our Aug/Sept NYC poll @umlcpo.bsky.social
000
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
What happened in Tuesday's elections? Here's our anatomy of a blue wave: www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
25517
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion @umlcpo.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
From our Aug/Sept NYC poll @umlcpo.bsky.social More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
001
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 07/11/2025
Dem gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 20-24. Claims of a GOP political realignment have been highly exaggerated www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-win...
gelliottmorris.com
Trump's winning 2024 coalition has evaporated
Claims of a conservative realignment of non-whites, the working class, and young voters have been highly exaggerated
572460675
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
"claims of a fundamental realignment of American politics have been highly exaggerated" this happens ***every single time*** someone proclaims a realignment
1118330
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 07/11/2025
Trump at a -16 net approval rating among all adults now, per our average at @fiftyplusone.news, and flirting with dropping below 40% approval. fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...
1740297
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
John Cluverius @johncluverius.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Spanberger now at 15 and change. please feel free to read too much into it.
0193
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion @umlcpo.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
From our Aug/Sept NYC poll @umlcpo.bsky.social More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
001
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
David Sirota @davidsirota.com · 06/11/2025
I've spent my life advocating for a politics challenging oligarchy. It's been an unpleasant and difficult line of work, to say the least. So when I see the longtime opponents of this kind of politics suddenly appropriating it as their new "centrism," I'm happy. A short 🧵...
levernews.com
Welcome To The New Uprising
Zohran Mamdani’s victory could be a turning point for Democrats — if the party finally learns from its past leaders’ betrayals.
49317
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Peter @notalawyer.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
basically every 2024 truism is dead. Trump did not build a lasting multiracial coalition or turn young men into committed Republicans. You don’t need to cave on trans rights to win. The pundits have nothing left to tell you.
146183294490
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
John Cluverius @johncluverius.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
The question for the midterms is: where will Trump's approval rating be? He started the second term at +12, 8 points ahead of where he was in '17. now that gap has shrunk to about 2-3 points. where will the economy be? Trump had a *roaring* economy in 2018.
252
Rodrigo Castro Cornejo @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
From our UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion NYC poll — broad support for Mamdani’s policies.
012
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion @umlcpo.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
From our Aug/Sept NYC UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion Poll More info: uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2025/nyc-mayoral.aspx
001
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion @umlcpo.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
Today is election day. **More data from the new UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion National Poll** 52%=much/somewhat harder to pay for basic necessities Less than 50K = 60%, 50K-100K = 52%, 100K+= 42% White = 48%, Black=70%, Hispanic=54%
001
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 04/11/2025
Trump has lost 15 points with independents since February
New CNN poll shows Trump falling to 28% with independents
2694237950
Rodrigo Castro Cornejo @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
More data from our new national poll 👇
000
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
John Cluverius @johncluverius.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
depending on model, this suggests a shift between D+11 and D+30 seats, based solely on Abramowitz's model.
031
Rodrigo Castro Cornejo @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
More data from our national poll:
000
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion @umlcpo.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
** New UMass-Lowell / Center for Public Opinion National Poll ** Presidential Approval = 42% Independents = 30% White = 50%, Black = 17%, Hispanic = 35% 18-29 = 28%, 30-44 = 41%, 45-64 = 49%, 65+ = 44% More info: uml.edu/Research/public-opinion/polls/default.aspx
155
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion @umlcpo.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
The new UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion National Poll featured in @theguardian.com Complete story here: t.co/Ug0MqHyca9
001
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion @umlcpo.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
The new UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion National Poll featured in @newsweek.com The complete article here: t.co/VMkaXfLr6l
001
Rodrigo Castro Cornejo @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
The results of our new national poll 👇🏽👇🏽 @umlcpo.bsky.social @johncluverius.bsky.social
010
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
New "How not to write a poll question" example just dropped. (Kids: Learn to not write horrible poll questions like this.)
3632842
Rodrigo Castro Cornejo @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
UMass-Lowell Center for Public Opinion Poll (@UMassLowell @UML_CPO) - Survey of NYC Likely Voters Zohran Mandani 44% Andrew Cuomo 25% More info: uml.edu/polls
000
Rodrigo Castro Cornejo @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
*CALL FOR PAPERS* Política y Gobierno (@depCIDE) & the Mexican Election Study (@ENEM_Mexico) invite submissions for a special issue dedicated to the analysis of public opinion in Mexico in the context of the 2024 presidential election. Deadline for proposal submissions: Aug 30
100
Rodrigo Castro Cornejo @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
Los invitamos a participar en esta convocatoria de Política y Gobierno (@depCIDE) y @ENEM_Mexico para participar en un volumen especial dedicado al estudio de la opinión pública en México en el contexto de la elección presidencial de 2024. Los invitamos a analizar la base de datos del ENEM 2024 👇
000
Rodrigo Castro Cornejo @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
¿Por qué partido/candidata votaron los votantes LGB en México en las pasadas elecciones presidenciales? A propósito de #PrideMonth2025 aquí un texto con @chetoar sobre el voto LGB: redaccion.nexos.com.mx/el-voto-lgb-... Con datos del Mexican Election Study / Estudio Nacional Electoral de México
010
Rodrigo Castro Cornejo @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
In this @JoDemocracy article, unfortunately, we were not wrong in identifying the path of autocratization the country was on. With the purge of the Judiciary, Mexico opens those gates and moves toward an authoritarian regime (competitive authoritarianism/electoral autocracy).
042
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Azul Aguiar @azulaguiar.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
✳️Mañana a las 11 empezamos la conversación sobre las Implicaciones en materia de reforma judicial.
123
Rodrigo Castro Cornejo @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
👇👇👇
000
Rodrigo Castro Cornejo @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
Compartimos nuevo artículo (c/Natasha Konzevik) en @rmop_fcpys. Encontramos que la presencia mayoritaria de mujeres en la boleta electoral sí tiene un efecto: los votantes con niveles altos de sexismo disminuyen su probabilidad de participar en las elecciones. Link: revistas.unam.mx/index.php/rm...
010
Rodrigo Castro Cornejo @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
Mesa redonda donde discuriremos nuestro artículo "Is Mexico at the Gates of Authoritarianism?" (con @azulaguiar.bsky.social y Alejandro Monsiváis) recientemente publicado (@jodemocracy.bsky.social): Los esperamos:
133
Rodrigo Castro Cornejo @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
Join us next week as we discuss our recent publication in @jodemocracy.bsky.social , which explores Mexico's democratic erosion. "Is Mexico at the Gates of Authoritarianism?" Jan 29th at @GPS_UCSD The article: muse.jhu.edu/article/947883
011
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Journal of Democracy @jodemocracy.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
“Elected in 2018, López Obrador soon set in motion the gradual subversion of Mexican democracy," write @azulaguiar.bsky.social, @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social, and Alejandro Monsiváis-Carrillo. "Is Mexico at the Gates of Authoritarianism?" muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
034
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Journal of Democracy @jodemocracy.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
“Elected in 2018, López Obrador soon set in motion the gradual subversion of Mexican democracy, eventually succeeding in asserting his personalistic authority over democratic norms and procedures.” @azulaguiar.bsky.social @rcastrocornejo.bsky.social muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...
042
Reposted by Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Erin Cassese @erincassese.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
Happy New Year! Our Cambridge Element is now available! In it, @hondercin.bsky.social, Jordan Randall, and I use data from the ANES @electionstudies.bsky.social to glean new insights into how the American public thinks about abortion rights. Free downloads til Jan 31st doi.org/10.1017/9781...
doi.org
Abortion Attitudes and Polarization in the American Electorate
Cambridge Core - Politics: General Interest - Abortion Attitudes and Polarization in the American Electorate
25424