iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Arvind Narayanan

Jan Jęcz @jeczjan.eurosky.social · 20/09/2026

From @sayash.bsky.social and @randomwalker.bsky.social book “AI Snake Oil”. Published in September 2024, but hasn’t aged even a bit

IMAGINE AN ALTERNATE universe in which people don't have words for different forms of transportation —only the collective noun "vehicle." They use that word to refer to cars, buses, bikes, spacecraft, and all other ways of getting from place A to place B. Conversations in this world are confusing. There are furious debates about whether or not vehicles are environmentally friendly, even though no one realizes that one side of the debate is talking about bikes and the other side is talking about trucks. There is a breakthrough in rocketry, but the media focuses on how vehicles have gotten faster—so people call their car dealer (oops, vehicle dealer to ask when faster models will be available. Meanwhile, fraudsters have capitalized on the fact that consumers don't know what to believe when it comes to vehicle technology, so scams are rampant in the vehicle sector.
Now replace the word "vehicle" with "artificial intelligence," and we have a pretty good description of the world we live in.

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Ethan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

From @randomwalker.bsky.social: state-level data center bans have very little impact overall on AI progress due to rising efficiency. If your concern is AI development, concentration of power, future use, or anything else other than "is a datacenter near me?" this is not a substitute for policy.

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Eamon Duede @eduede.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Excellent @randomwalker.bsky.social essay on how frontier labs might navigate various layers of the value stack to survive. open.substack.com/pub/aisnakeo...

open.substack.com

Up the Stack: How AI’s Escape From the Commodity Trap Risks Enterprise Lock-in

Critics and boosters are both looking in the wrong place

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Melanie Mitchell @melaniemitchell.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

I'm just now reading @randomwalker.bsky.social's writeup of his ICML keynote. It is very insightful. Everyone thinking about the future of work in the age of AI should read this. www.normaltech.ai/p/what-will-...

normaltech.ai

What will be left for us to work on?

My keynote at ICML 2026

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Arvind Narayanan @randomwalker.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

To understand and empathize with how workers in many or most fields outside software experience advances in AI capabilities, I propose a little thought experiment. substack.com/@aisnakeoil/...

A dystopian world where LLMs can't code but can generate software binaries

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Rafael M Batista @rafmbatista.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

This talk made its rounds earlier this week and with good reason. I finally made my way through it (in 6 min increments!) & found it wonderful. Many of the ideas felt new; including new frameworks to think about #AI + language to talk about it. Leaves you smarter, even if you disagree w/ it.

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Arvind Narayanan @randomwalker.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

This is one of the most important questions about AI and one I've thought about. In countries like India, much of the economy is informal—heavily reliant on tacit knowledge that's not written down anywhere, processes never codified, "I know a guy who knows a guy" networks, and pervasive corruption.

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Thiago Krause @thiagokrause.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Very much worth reading. Too long and thoughtful to summarize here, but some of the main points are that LLMs will probably generate a lot of work, vaguely-defined “super intelligence” is unrealistic, and judgment will become ever more important.

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Arvind Narayanan @randomwalker.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

If you find the premise of the question ridiculous I totally get it. But I assure you the question is on almost everyone's mind at AI conferences, and I believe in meeting people where they are. If we don't challenge the narrative it will continue to be embedded in the way the tech itself is built.

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Arvind Narayanan @randomwalker.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

I had the honor of giving a keynote at the International Conference on Machine Learning last week. I addressed the widespread anxiety about how we should adapt as AI capabilities increase. I was thrilled by the talk’s reception, so I have made my slides available www.cs.princeton.edu/~arvindn/tal...

cs.princeton.edu

What will be left for us to work on?

ICML 2026 invited keynote — slides and edited transcript, presented click-by-click as delivered. Arvind Narayanan, Princeton University.

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Jason Keiber @jasonkeiber.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

"If you’re imagining a future where AI is actually owning and running companies and hiring and firing people, that’s already dystopian. It doesn’t matter if that AI is aligned or not." Lots of gems in this fantastic substack by @randomwalker.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/aisnakeo...

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Ted Underwood @tedunderwood.com · 14/07/2026

Really recommend this from @randomwalker.bsky.social. It’s not just a rehash of his “normal technology” thesis about economic impact, but argues strongly toward the end that evaluation and judgment will be an increasingly important part of intellectual work — and will give us plenty of work to do!

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Luiza Jarovsky, PhD @luizajarovsky.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

In their latest essay, @randomwalker.bsky.social and @sayash.bsky.social argue that AI will most likely not cause mass layoffs. Pay attention to the "decide-execute-deliver" sandwich:

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Stanford Digital Economy Lab @stanforddel.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

"The possibility that AI will automate most cognitive labor is worth taking seriously. How should we adapt to this transformation?" @randomwalker.bsky.social's DEL seminar, "Adapting to the Transformation of Knowledge Work," is now available! Watch on YouTube: youtu.be/uiTwQG1ZyTw

youtu.be

Arvind Narayanan: Adapting to the Transformation of Knowledge Work

YouTube video by Stanford Digital Economy Lab

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ICML Conference @icmlconf.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Announcing the #ICML2026 invited speakers! Pascale Fung Susan Athey (@susanathey.bsky.social) Sham Kakade (@shamkakade.bsky.social ) Aviv Regev Verena Rieser (@verenarieser.bsky.social) Arvind Narayanan (@randomwalker.bsky.social) Check out the blog post for more info! blog.icml.cc/2026/05/18/a...

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Katy Glenn Bass @katygb.bsky.social · 21/05/2026

New from @randomwalker.bsky.social and @sayash.bsky.social: Responding to AI risks requires building broad resilience to harms through normal policymaking, rather than allowing the executive branch to exert extraordinary power over AI access and development. knightcolumbia.org/blog/do-ai-r...

knightcolumbia.org

Do AI Risks Require Extraordinary Government Intervention?

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samuel mehr @mehr.nz · 07/05/2026

seems like a good day to repost @randomwalker.bsky.social's thread on Blackboard, Canvas, etc and why they all suck big time

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Human Rights Data Analysis Group @hrdag.org · 10/03/2026

The AI industry doesn’t have good tools for measuring reliability, or even a good definition of reliability. @sayash.bsky.social and @randomwalker.bsky.social seek to define reliability in a functionally useful way. www.normaltech.ai/p/new-paper-...

normaltech.ai

New Paper: Towards a science of AI agent reliability

Quantifying the capability-reliability gap

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Human Rights Data Analysis Group @hrdag.org · 03/03/2026

A new paper by @sayash.bsky.social and @randomwalker.bsky.social examines what “reliability” means in an AI context. They propose consistency, robustness, calibration, and safety, and they define these in operationally useful ways. A worthy read! www.normaltech.ai/p/new-paper-...

normaltech.ai

New Paper: Towards a science of AI agent reliability

Quantifying the capability-reliability gap

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Ayla Taylor @aylataylor.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

A silly little comic based on the opening section of AI Snake Oil by @randomwalker.bsky.social and @sayash.bsky.social.

Panel 1: Text: “Imagine an alternate universe in which people don’t have words for different forms of transportation, only the collective noun ‘vehicle’.” Illustration: a stick figure stands next to a much more detailed motorcycle, which a speech bubble saying “Woah! Sweet vehicle!”
Panel 2: Text: “They use that word to refer to: cars, buses, bikes, spacecraft, and all other ways of getting from place A to place B.” Illustration: A car, a school bus, a bicycle, and a space shuttle, all with a stamp that says “vehicle” on them.

Panel 1: Text: “Conversations in this world are confusing.” Illustration: A speech bubble coming from the left: “Can you drive a vehicle?”, A speech bubble coming from the right: “Definitely!”, A illustration of a car crashed into a tree. Left speech bubble: “I thought you said you could drive!” Right speech bubble: “I can! I’m just used to ones with two wheels!”
Panel 2: Text: “There are furious debates about whether or not vehicles are environmentally friendly… even though no one realizes that one side is talking about bikes and the other is talking about trucks. Illustration: Left speech bubble: “Vehicles produce so much pollution!” Right speech bubble: “That’s an exaggeration! They are actually very green!”

Panel 1: Text: “There is a breakthrough in rocketry, but the media focuses on how vehicles have gotten faster so people call there car (‘car’ is crossed out and replaced with ‘vehicle’) dealer to ask when faster models will be available.” Illustration: A TV news report with a picture of a rocket ship and a chyron saying “Breaking: Vehicles reach 1000 mph!”. Below that is a drawing of two stick figures talking at a car dealership. One says, “So I can take this to space, right?”
Panel 2: Text: “Meanwhile, fraudsters have capitalize on the fact that consumers don’t know what to believe when it comes to vehicle technology, so scams are rampant in the vehicle sector.” Illustration: A stick figure with a mean smile and a sparkle next to his eye pats a car that has plane wings taped to it. A speech bubble says, “Oh yeah! You can fly this baby across the ocean!”

Panel 1: Text: “Now replace the word “vehicle” with “artificial intelligence” and we have a pretty good descriptor of the world we live in.” Illustration: One crowd of people say “AI is bad for the environment!” Underneath them is a large box that is labeled “Size of AI people are concerned about”, another crowd of people says “AI is used for climate research!” Underneath them is a much smaller box saying “Size of AI used for climate research”. In the foreground there is a person watching the debate with several question marks above it.
Panel 2: Credits. “Text from AI Snake Oil: What Artificial Intelligence Can Do, What It Can’t, and How to Tell the Difference by Arvin’s Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor. Art by Ayla Taylor. www.aylataylor.com”

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Chris Bail @chrisbail.bsky.social · 07/01/2026

Dr. Arvind Narayanan (@randomwalker.bsky.social ) will be joining us as a Keynote Speaker at the Conference on Society-Centered AI 2026! Join us Feb 12-14 at Duke for industry and academic keynotes, research spotlight talks, and poster sessions. Learn more and Register here: sites.duke.edu/scai/

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Eamon Duede @eduede.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

New piece w/ James Evans in Science explores what we call 'science after science', an era where our ability to control nature may exceed our ability to understand it; a new struggle to sustain curiosity & understanding under AI's predictive dominance. #ai #science www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

science.org

After science

Twenty-five years ago, Ted Chiang wrote a prescient science fiction short that began: “It has been 25 years since a report of original research was last submitted to our editors for publication, makin...

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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 24/10/2025

1. We ( @jbakcoleman.bsky.social, @cailinmeister.bsky.social, @jevinwest.bsky.social, and I) have a new preprint up on the arXiv. There we explore how social media companies and other online information technology firms are able to manipulate scientific research about the effects of their products.

Three schematic diagrams. The first illustrates selective publishing of internal resection, the second selective causal focus, and the third selective access and funding for researchers.

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Anil Dash @anildash.com · 17/10/2025

The "normal" framing is so key — @randomwalker.bsky.social gave us all such a useful way of articulating a valuable idea in this discussion. www.normaltech.ai/p/ai-as-norm...

normaltech.ai

AI as Normal Technology

A new paper that we will expand into our next book

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Princeton Center for Information Technology Policy @princetoncitp.bsky.social · 26/09/2025

📢📢 Call for federal employees for the AI Precepts in Washington, DC. Learn from experts Arvind Narayanan (@randomwalker.bsky.social), Mihir Kshirsagar, Peter Henderson (@peterhenderson.bsky.social, & Sayash Kapoor (@sayash.bsky.social). Deadline to apply: Fri, Oct. 3 mailchi.mp/princeton.ed...

mailchi.mp

Invitation to Apply: Princeton AI Policy Precepts in Washington, DC

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Princeton University Press @princetonupress.bsky.social · 23/09/2025

From two of TIME’s 100 Most Influential People in AI, what you need to know about #AI—and how to defend yourself against bogus AI claims and products. AI Snake Oil by @randomwalker.bsky.social and @sayash.bsky.social is now available in #paperback: press.princeton.edu/books/paperb...

Paperback cover of AI Snake Oil: What Artificial Intelligence Can Do, What It Can’t, and How to Tell the Difference by Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor

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Princeton University Press @princetonupress.bsky.social · 09/09/2025

Our #podcast series on Harry Frankfurt’s seminal work, On Bullshit continues with Arvind Narayanan who explores the subject of bullshit in #AI. press.princeton.edu/ideas/the-tr... @randomwalker.bsky.social @newbooksnetwork.bsky.social @calebzakarin.bsky.social

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Princeton Center for Information Technology Policy @princetoncitp.bsky.social · 03/09/2025

📣 Prof Arvind Narayanan (@randomwalker.bsky.social) is hiring a Princeton University undergrad for a Video Editor & Production Assistant this semester to help with his brand new YouTube channel @ArvindOnAI Getting started right away so feel free to comment + share with students! Link to apply 👇

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Electronic Frontier Foundation @eff.org · 19/08/2025

Even superintelligent AI cannot simply replace humans for most of what we do, nor can it perfect or ruin our world unless we let it, AI Snake Oil’s @randomwalker.bsky.social tells EFF’s Cindy Cohn and @thejasonkelley.com on the new “How to Fix the Internet.”

eff.org

Podcast Episode: Separating AI Hope from AI Hype

If you believe the hype, artificial intelligence will soon take all our jobs, or solve all our problems, or destroy all boundaries between reality and lies, or help us live forever, or take over the w...

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rainey reitman @reitman.bsky.social · 12/08/2025

Preach it, @randomwalker.bsky.social. I've worked with so many nonprofits, and I think an organically-grown newsletter community is so, so valuable. It takes time, but it's worth it. substack.com/@aisnakeoil/...

substack.com

Arvind Narayanan (@aisnakeoil)

Some people have asked me about the decision to start a newsletter rather than using other channels like op-eds. There's one key thing I've learned, and I made a stylized chart to explain it. If you b...

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Alondra Nelson @alondra.bsky.social · 01/08/2025

What kind of AI governance do we need? Our new piece in @science.org answers this: we need policy grounded in evidence and built to generate more of it. Evidence-based policymaking is not a slogan—it’s a design challenge for democratic governance in the age of AI www.science.org/doi/10.1126/... 🧵

science.org

Advancing science- and evidence-based AI policy

Policy must be informed by, but also facilitate the generation of, scientific evidence

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Anshul Kundaje @anshulkundaje.bsky.social · 17/07/2025

Fabulous post by @randomwalker.bsky.social & Sayash raising the same concern many of us have about whether we're on the right track with how we're using AI for science. Everyone should read it, take a deep breath & think through the implications. www.aisnakeoil.com/p/could-ai-s...

aisnakeoil.com

Could AI slow science?

Confronting the production-progress paradox

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Fago Milfoy @dia.bsky.social · 10/07/2025

I’m reading a very well written 2023 paper on social media recommender systems from @randomwalker.bsky.social I had completely forgotten that in the 00s “neither Facebook nor Twitter had the ability to reshare or retweet posts in your feed.”What a huge shift! knightcolumbia.org/content/unde...

knightcolumbia.org

Understanding Social Media Recommendation Algorithms

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zeynep tufekci @zey.bsky.social · 20/06/2025

We’re hiring at Princeton on AI and society, working with Arvind Narayanan or me depending on fit. I think current AI developments are all a huge deal but am very unexcited by current state of the AGI and/or AI safety discourse. Please share as you see fit. puwebp.princeton.edu/AcadHire/app...

puwebp.princeton.edu

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Ethan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 26/05/2025

After consideration, I will post occasionally, but heavily censor what I share compared to other sites. I tried making the transition, but talking about AI here is just really fraught in ways that are tough to mitigate & make it hard to have good discussions (the point of social!). Maybe it changes

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Princeton University Press @princetonupress.bsky.social · 28/05/2025

For @newyorker.com, Joshua Rothman spoke with @randomwalker.bsky.social and @sayash.bsky.social, authors of AI Snake Oil and a recently published paper “AI as Normal Technology”, which argues that practical obstacles will slow AI’s uses and potential: www.newyorker.com/culture/open...

newyorker.com

Two Paths for A.I.

The technology is complicated, but our choices are simple: we can remain passive, or assert control.

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James Vincent @jjvincent.bsky.social · 22/05/2025

clear, depressing set of observations from @randomwalker.bsky.social - "The decline of reading-for-pleasure (due to video) and reading-for-information (due to AI) will accelerate each other, as reading text without an intermediary will come to be seen as a chore."

"A hypothesis on the accelerating decline of reading:

* Broadly speaking, people read for pleasure/entertainment and for learning/obtaining information.
* Reading for pleasure has been declining for a while and is being replaced by videos (very sharply among young people). This trend will surely continue.
* Reading for obtaining information is getting intermediated by chatbots. We are in the very early stages of this shift, so I think people underappreciate the magnitude of what's coming. It's not just that AI replacing traditional web search. Even when it comes to reading news articles, business documents, or scientific papers, the vision that tech companies are pushing on us is AI summarization + synthesis + Q&A.
* We don't have to accept this, but I predict that most people will. It's a tradeoff between speed/convenience and accuracy/depth of understanding — the same tradeoff that was once offered to us when it became possible to search the web to look up a quick fact as opposed to reading about the topic in depth in an encyclopedia.
* Just as most people in most cases prefer a shallow web search over deeper reading, most people in most cases will prefer AI-intermediated access to knowledge. Traditional reading won't disappear, but people will do it vastly less often, except in hobbyist reading communities and professions where traditional reading is needed.
* The decline of reading-for-pleasure (due to video) and reading-for-information (due to AI) will accelerate each other, as reading text without an intermediary will come to be seen as a chore.
* Personally, I find this sad. But while it's tempting to moralize all this, I think that's unproductive. Yelling at individuals to resist new media has been done for centuries and has never worked.
* Even if people individually rationally choose these tradeoffs, I think we collectively lose something; critical reading skills are arguably essential for a democracy. We need to figure out what to do about that.

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Joe Bak-Coleman @jbakcoleman.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

I'm excited that I can finally share what I've been working on for the past 9 months: The United Nations 2025 Human Development Report: "A matter of choice: People and possibilities in the age of AI" 🧵 hdr.undp.org/content/huma...

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Neil Turkewitz @neilturkewitz.bsky.social · 01/05/2025

“AGI is not a milestone because it is not actionable. A company declaring it has achieved, or is about to achieve, AGI has no implications for how businesses should plan, what safety interventions we need, or how policymakers should react.” @randomwalker.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/aisnakeo...

open.substack.com

AGI is not a milestone

There is no capability threshold that will lead to sudden impacts

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Dave Karpf @davekarpf.bsky.social · 24/04/2025

Okay just started @randomwalker.bsky.social and @sayash.bsky.social's new essay and this is 🔥🔥🔥. "Resilience as the overarching approach to catastrophic risk" -- yes thank you exactly this. kfai-documents.s3.amazonaws.com/documents/c3...

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Princeton Laboratory for Artificial Intelligence @princetonainews.bsky.social · 24/04/2025

We are hosting @reproml.org 2025 on Aug. 21. There will be invited talks, oral presentations, and poster sessions. Keynote speakers include @randomwalker.bsky.social, @soumithchintala.bsky.social, @jfrankle.com, @jessedodge.bsky.social, @stellaathena.bsky.social Register now: bit.ly/4cP8vIq

text says "ML Reproducibility Challenge Princeton University, New Jersey, USA, August 21 2025"

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MIT Stone Center on Inequality and Shaping the Future of Work @mitshapingwork.bsky.social · 24/04/2025

In this clip from our event last week, @randomwalker.bsky.social describes how we can map out the landscape of AI along two dimensions: how well the AI tool works, and how harmful (or benign) it is. Watch a full recording of the event: youtu.be/C3TqcUEFR58

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John Warner @biblioracle.bsky.social · 19/04/2025

IMO, the most important piece on AI of the last 6 months and I recommend it to everyone. A genuinely careful consideration of the technology and its intersections with culture and labor from @randomwalker.bsky.social and @sayash.bsky.social Authors of AI Snake Oil substack.com/home/post/p-...

substack.com

AI as Normal Technology

A new paper that we will expand into our next book

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M. Alessandro 🇨🇦 @manfrommolise.bsky.social · 17/04/2025

Truly thoughtful and essential analysis of the AI field from @randomwalker.bsky.social @sayash.bsky.social. States what many felt, but haven't articulated. Pairs well with Shazeda Ahmed's "epistemic culture of AI safety" and others' work on risk and anti-trust. knightcolumbia.org/content/ai-a...

knightcolumbia.org

AI as Normal Technology

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Knight First Amendment Institute @knightcolumbia.org · 15/04/2025

In a new essay from our "Artificial Intelligence and Democratic Freedoms" series, @randomwalker.bsky.social & @sayash.bsky.social make the case for thinking of #AI as normal technology, instead of superintelligence. Read here: knightcolumbia.org/content/ai-a...

knightcolumbia.org

AI as Normal Technology

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