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Phil Orchard

@philorchard.bsky.social
2.1K followers 922 following 252 posts

Professor of International Relations, Discipline Leader, Politics & Intl Studies @UOW; Co-Director @FutureofRights. International relations, forced and climate displacement & the R2P. Twitter: @p_orchard.

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Phil Orchard @philorchard.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Powerful piece in the Guardian about the 25 years of policy missteps 9/11 triggered for the United States: www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-i...
theguardian.com
Mistakes, mistrust and misdirection: 25 years after 9/11, its dark legacy continues to unfold
The world’s most powerful country responded to the worst terrorist attack in its history by inflicting terror of its own – around the world, and at home
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Yael Schacher @yaelschacher.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
The attempt to frame this whole process as somehow voluntary when it involves forced deportation of Afghans from U.S. and only temporary stay in Guyana is Orwellian. newsroom.gy/2026/09/05/g...
newsroom.gy
Guyana to temporarily accept third-country nationals from US - News Room Guyana
The Government of Guyana has confirmed the conclusion of a migration cooperation framework with the United States of America, under which Guyana will receive a limited, vetted number of skilled and no...
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Eliot Higgins @eliothiggins.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Incredible war crimes, Incredible assassinations.
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Leroy @leroylynch.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Social media companies would be required to give users a choice to turn off their algorithm through pop-up messages, under draft laws to be unveiled by the government later this week. www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09... #auspol #auslaw
abc.net.au
Social media platforms to be forced to offer algorithm opt-out
Social media companies would be required to give users a choice to turn off their algorithm through pop-up messages, under draft laws to be unveiled by the government later this week.
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ClimateFran @climatefran.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Also will note that the new, narrower 2100 warming range of 1.6 - 3.3 degrees is remarkably similar to the 1.8 - 3.3 degree range we estimated using our climate-social model www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate–social system - Nature
A stylized model of the climate–social system could help to understand policy and emissions futures.
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 01/09/2026
The emissions scenarios underlying the next generation of climate model runs that will be featured in the upcoming IPCC 7th Assessment Report are officially out! I have a big new explainer over at Carbon Brief taking an in-depth look at what they mean and whats changed: www.carbonbrief.org/...
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Mike Jensen @mikejjensen.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
US policy change in support for Ukraine since the full-scale invasion www.stateoig.gov/uploads/repo...
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e.w. niedermeyer @niedermeyer.online · 13/08/2026
14 million souls ended in a single year by Elon Musk's cruelty and stupidity Here are some of the comparisons: Rwandan genocide: 800k dead Cambodian genocide: 3 million dead The Holocaust: 7 million dead
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Betcy Jose @betcy.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
#KeepEyesOnSudan
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Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
The president is refusing to spend taxpayer money assisting Americans suffering from natural disasters solely because their states didn't vote for him. I know there are a thousand scandals at the moment, but this one deserves some more oxygen at every level.
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Richard Heppner 🤷🏼‍♂️ @rlheppner.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
This feels like the unlikely fulfillment of a prophecy.
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Anjali Dayal @anjalikdayal.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
“One baby at a time, the world is marching toward a grim milestone: Because of global cuts to foreign aid, the Gates Foundation has predicted that 2025 will be the first year this century where child deaths will increase.” apnews.com/article/usai...
apnews.com
USAID fallout: In Nepal, when the aid workers stopped coming, the women and babies started dying
The Associated Press has found that the decision by the United States to slash its foreign aid funding last year has increased pregnancy complications and deaths in Nepal.
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Phil Orchard @philorchard.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Very pleased to have this new piece with @brosinsm.bsky.social up on @opiniojuris.bsky.social on universal jurisdiction as a way to respond to forced displacement in Myanmar: opiniojuris.org/2026/08/11/s...
opiniojuris.org
Symposium on Prosecuting Asia-Pacific Crimes: Examining the Utility of Universal Jurisdiction Efforts to Address Forced Displacement in Myanmar
[Phil Orchard is Professor in International Relations, Head of Discipline, Politics and International Studies and Co-Director of the Future of Rights Centre in the School of Social Sciences at the …
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Phil Orchard @philorchard.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
"We have crossed into the era where large-scale AI-driven catastrophes are possible" A chilling discussion of the OpenAI AI directed attack against Hugging Face: pauseai.substack.com/p/into-the-e...
pauseai.substack.com
Into the endgame
The catastrophic threats we predicted are no longer speculative, and we are all in danger. A message to the world on what must happen now.
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Polling Canada @canadianpolling.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Canadians still consider America as an enemy or a potential threat
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Heather Cox Richardson (TDPR) @hcrichardson.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
August 9, 2026
heathercoxrichardson.substack.com
August 9, 2026
On August 9, 1974, Richard M.
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Andrea Woo @andreawoo.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
“Severe drought and more frequent heat waves are hemispheric in scale, and the evacuated B.C. towns of Summerland and Peachland are just the latest to experience the conditions that produce fast-expanding infernos...” www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/artic...
theglobeandmail.com
Okanagan fires offer a glimpse of a worsening wildfire crisis
Experts say Canadian wildfires are part of a much larger problem connected to the burning of fossil fuels
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Simon Frankel Pratt @simonpratt.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Interceptors are expensive and generally slow to manufacture because they are extremely high-tech. It's probable that the US will restock over the next year or two, but what happens if during that time, a war against a more dangerous adversary than Iran breaks out?
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Kees van der Leun @sustainable2050.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
The El Niño event developing now is entering uncharted territory. Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific, indicative of its strength, are already 2.6°C above normal, while a peak above 2°C is seen as a super El Niño! The main effect of such an event is .. 1/
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Greg Jericho @grogsgamut.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
We're running a policy school on 19 August I'll be chatting about "What makes you feel like you're losing in this economy? (and what to do about it) nb.australiainstitute.org.au/policy_schoo...
nb.australiainstitute.org.au
Policy School - What makes you feel like you're losing in this economy?
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Joe Cirincione @joecirin.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
"President Trump’s reported concessions to Saudi Arabia raise legitimate concerns and unless addressed could lead to a Middle East filled with nuclear weapons programs." Analysis from one of the top experts in the field, @jonatomic.bsky.social newrepublic.com/article/2133... via @newrepublic.com
newrepublic.com
Trump’s Nuclear Deal With Saudi Arabia Looks More Like a Favor
The agreement includes a number of worrying U.S. concessions, raising concerns that Saudi Arabia is taking advantage of its close financial ties to the Trump family.
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public health guy @publichealthguy1.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
it does actually sound like taylor farms and the white house teamed up to try and blame taco bell for the outbreak. unprecedented corruption
Within hours, the White House agreed the patient surveys painted a clear picture, the people said. In an internal call, the White House aides approved statements from the public health agencies for public release — though they still only identified Taco Bell as linked to the outbreak, without naming Taylor Farms specifically.
Taco Bell moved first, releasing a statement. While it did not explicitly name Taylor Farms it said it believed "public health is a shared responsibility among restaurants, their suppliers, and authorities, and we are proud to have consistently acted quickly and proactively to protect our guests."
The agency updates on the outbreak were finally posted after 10 p.m. New York time - hours behind schedule - and also omitted directly naming Taylor Farms or saying if the company would recall products.
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Betcy Jose @betcy.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
What trying to preserve the global human rights regime and rule of law looks like
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Tim Lyons @picketer.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
This is about 12% of Venezuela's nominal GDP.
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Stephanie Carvin @stephaniecarvin.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Okay, non-economist here but the new US tariffs on Canada are just… kinda weird? Like they picked weird things to target (we have a Canadian tequila industry?!?) to go after slightly more than 5% of our trade. It is like they wanted 50% headlines but it is… targeting our honey industry?
Tweet by University of Toronto economist Joesph Steinberg. 

Update: Based on annexes to the 3 factsheets and (hopefully) correct script to merge them with trade data, I get the following:
- ~5.3% of exports affected
- ~2.6pp increase in average effective tariff rate.
Will update with any further errors
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Chabeli Carrazana @chabeli.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
The world may have moved on from Minneapolis but its immigrant community continues to struggle. We spoke to single mothers who hid from ICE for months, ran through their savings, and now can’t pay to renew their DACA applications. At least dozens are in this situation. 19thnews.org/2026/07/ice-...
19thnews.org
Single mothers lost months of income hiding from ICE — and now can’t afford to renew immigration papers
They survived ICE's takeover in Minneapolis. But now their DACA protections are set to expire, leaving dozens scrambling to afford hundreds of dollars in fees to maintain their legal status.
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Serbian President Vucic announced he’ll resign after 18 months of student protests. That’s Bangladesh, Nepal, Madagascar, Bulgaria, Hungary, and now Serbia, all in the past two years. Anti-corruption is the most potent force for positive political change right now. The US remains ripe.
reuters.com
Serbian President Vucic says he will resign within weeks
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said on Saturday he would resign ​within weeks and the country will hold early presidential and parliamentary elections, following 18 months of anti-government prote...
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Rick Perlstein @rickperlstein.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Fun fact: about a year after 9/11, George W. Bush gave a speech at Mt. Rushmore with his podium angled so he would look like the fifth face.
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Stanimir Dobrev @delfoo.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
Updated map of the regions of Russia where there are shortages of gasoline or diesel. As always it's worse in the occupied territories. Added 2 regions. Ingushetia and Ugra ( ХМАО ). Over 90% of Russia's regions have fuel shortages and population wise well over 95%.
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Anjali Dayal @anjalikdayal.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
I just want to add, since this is breaking containment, that this can't be made right. these people, each one a whole universe, are gone. there can only be justice for the perpetrators; public remorse & restitution; & reform to ensure future aid systems are more just and less prone to imperial whims
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Dara Lind @daralind.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
Unfortunately this is the sickest possible burn Britain could give us on this year of all years
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Judah Grunstein @judah-grunstein.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
The follow-up deal won't get done, so this basically locks both sides into a protracted non-aggression pact stalemate. The US pockets the one-off damage it did to Iran's infrastructure. Iran pockets a one-off show of strength that will be hard to repeat against a competent administration. 1/2
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Stacy VanDeveer @stacydvandeveer.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
Scientists have scrapped the worst-case climate scenario – because action is making a difference theconversation.com/scientists-h...
theconversation.com
Scientists have scrapped the worst-case climate scenario – because action is making a difference
Removing the worst-case climate future for Earth isn’t failed science, as climate sceptic Donald Trump claims. It’s a sign climate action has made a difference.
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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
Great news: the courts will have a chance to rein in the abuses at Camp East Montana, the infamous tent camp built on Fort Bliss in El Paso. I have known seasoned veterans of this field who visited the camp and came away saying it was one of the worst ICE detention centers they’d ever been to.
texastribune.org
ICE sued over “inhumane” conditions at Camp East Montana
The El Paso tent camp has seen at least three detainee deaths, a measles outbreak and nearly 50 detention standards violations in less than a year of operation.
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Phil Orchard @philorchard.bsky.social · 31/05/2026
‘Dire’ conditions at ICE facility severely violate human rights, lawsuit claims www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
theguardian.com
‘Dire’ conditions at ICE facility severely violate human rights, lawsuit claims
At US’s largest immigration center, Texas’s Camp East Montana, plaintiffs allege ‘dangerous and abusive’ situation
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Jane McAdam @profjmcadam.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
A little reminder about why national security concerns do not provide a carte blanche to disregard human rights obligations womensagenda.com.au/latest/why-a...
womensagenda.com.au
Why Australia needs a plan to repatriate citizens detained in Syria
Australia’s refusal to repatriate 34 women and children detained in Syria’s al-Roj camp raises serious human rights concerns.
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 06/05/2026
Mike Waltz brags that thanks to the Trump administration, the UN is cutting "25 percent of their peacekeepers"
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Cheryl Rofer @cherylrofer.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
And 30 members of Congress would like to know about them.
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Phil Orchard @philorchard.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Text of the draft UNGA resolution on "Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice on the Obligations of States in Respect of Climate Change" includes specific language on non-refoulement. The resolution is due to be voted on 20 May. www.pisfcc.org/news/final-t...
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pw-portal @pw-portal.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Internationale #Normen, wie etwa das Folter- oder #Gewaltverbot, werden regelmäßig angefochten. Johanna Speyer @prif.org hat für uns zum Phänomen die Sammelbände „Contestation in Prism“ @springernature.com & „Contesting the World“ @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org nebeneinander gelesen und besprochen.
pw-portal.de
Portal für Politikwissenschaft – Alle Farben des Regenbogens gegen die Krise der Weltordnung?
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Phil Orchard @philorchard.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
Blistering column by Zoe Daniel in the @GuardianAus today about Liberals & One Nation’s policies: “(Angus)Taylor has voted with One Nation’s Barnaby Joyce 99.8% of the time and the Liberals vote with Pauline Hanson as much as 90% of the time in the Senate.” www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
The Coalition is nailing its own coffin shut in Farrer. It should have had the courage to put One Nation last
By directing preferences to Pauline Hanson’s party, the Coalition may deliver One Nation its first election win in the lower house
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 19/04/2026
FWIW, the answer to this question is “no”
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Ryan Goodman @rgoodlaw.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
OMG Kash Patel appears to be a drunken national security threat "Meetings and briefings had to be rescheduled for later in the day as a result of his alcohol-fueled nights." "A request for 'breaching equipment' ... was made last year because Patel had been unreachable behind locked doors."
theatlantic.com
The FBI Director Is MIA
Kash Patel has alarmed colleagues with episodes of excessive drinking and unexplained absences.
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Weedle @weedle.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Exactly one year ago today:
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Gillian Brockell @gillianbrockell.com · 17/04/2026
BREAKING: An ICE charter landed in the Democratic Republic of Congo minutes ago following third-country deportation deal with the Trump administration. gillianbrockell.com/breaking-ice...
gillianbrockell.com
BREAKING: ICE charter lands in Congo following third-country deportation deal
The likely ICE flight landed in Kinshasa in the early morning hours Friday, and a second ICE charter aircraft appeared to also be bound for central Africa.
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Brian Finucane @bcfinucane.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
Despite the administration’s rhetoric and bogus legal theories, the supposed armed conflict with “narco-terrorists” appears to be entirely make believe. Murder is the general term for premeditated killing outside of armed conflict.
On April 15, at the direction of #SOUTHCOM commander Gen. Francis L. Donovan, Joint Task Force Southern Spear conducted a lethal kinetic strike on a vessel operated by Designated Terrorist Organizations. Intelligence confirmed the vessel was transiting along known narco-trafficking routes in the Eastern Pacific and was engaged in narco-trafficking operations. Three male narco-terrorists were killed during this action. No U.S. military forces were harmed. 
@DeptofWar
 #OpSouthernSpear
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Holly Cullen @hollycullenfreo.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
'For the families who lived through these events, nothing can bring back what they lost. But being recognised, being heard and having their stories taken seriously still matters. Because in the end, justice is not only about punishment. It is also about acknowledgement.'
theguardian.com
Ben Roberts-Smith’s arrest won’t erase the pain for Afghans – but it shows Australia is willing to face uncomfortable truths | Shadi Khan Saif
In the context of the Afghanistan war, this kind of accountability is rare, and it matters
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Phil Orchard @philorchard.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
Splashdown!
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Yael Schacher @yaelschacher.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
If SCOTUS takes this, and they rules as I think it will in Noem v. AOL, it will completely upend the 1980 Refugee Act and IIRIRA and make both basically laws that say refugees are to be turned away and turn the US into an immigrant gulag
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Charles Kenny @charlesjkenny.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Feb 3 2025: "Despite plans for restructuring, Rubio said the United States would remain the 'most generous nation on Earth.' " 2025 ODA statistics: Germany has overtaken US as largest donor. Sad.
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